January 2025

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

2015, 2018 and 2022 all were cold months. 2018 is skewed because we warmed so much in the 2nd half of the month. 

But 2016 was warmer than those 3 years with a better snowfall outcome due to the great STJ pattern. 

[Allsnow]

21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Mjo going into the cod. Will be interesting to see what transpires with this mjo look if it verifies. 

Crap phases of the Mjo coming after MLK day. I would think the pac gets more hostile at that point 

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

If we take 95/96, our snowfall would have arguably been better if the same setup occurred today as there would be a lot less virga, offsetting the warmer temperatures. 

10-11 was our last chance to surpass 95-96 when Newark got 60” in only 33 days. But the pattern reversed too quickly after January. We were one of the few spots from DC to Boston that didn’t set a new seasonal snowfall record during the 2010 to 2018 record KU era.

[SACRUS]

41 / 21 windy.  Step down 50s to 40s today and Friday before 10 day to 2 week cold period where more highs are sub upper 30s, peak of the initial cold Jan 8 - Jan 12.  Lets see how much precip can make it into the area.  Perhaps some flurries snow showers on Sat evening. Then the southern storm 6-8.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

HIghs:

EWR: 63 (1979)
NYC: 68 (1876)
LGA: 60 (2022)
JFK: 59 (2022)

Lows:

EWR: 7 (1968)
NYC: 2 (1918)
LGA: 9 (1968)
JFK: 6 (1968)

 

Historical:

 

1839: It is believed Louis Daguerre took the first daguerreotype of the moon. Unfortunately, in March of that same year, his entire laboratory burnt to the ground, destroying all his written records and much of his early experimental work–and that historical image of the moon. A year later, John William Draper, an American doctor, and chemist took his own daguerreotype of the moon. 

1897: Tornadoes in January? Two tornadoes touched down on this day. The first tornado touched down in Mooringsport, Louisiana, killing five people and injuring 21 others. The second tornado occurred at Benton, Arkansas. Although this tornado was more destructive in regards to property damage, it caused one death.

1910 - A great flood in Utah and Nevada washed out 100 miles of railroad between Salt Lake City UT and Los Angeles CA causing seven million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

 

1949: A blizzard raged and brought heavy snow, strong winds, and cold temperatures to South Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado, and Nebraska.

 

1955: Hurricane Alice passed through the Islands of Saint Martin and Saba in the Caribbean Sea on this day. Alice, which developed on December 30, 1954, is the only known Atlantic hurricane to span two calendar years. 

1961 - The coldest temperature of record for the state of Hawaii was established with a reading of 14 degrees atop Haleakela Summit. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A winter storm moving up the Atlantic coast brought heavy snow and high winds to the northeastern U.S. Wind gusts reached 82 mph at Trenton NJ and Southwest Harbor in Maine. Snowfall totals ranged up to two feet at Salem NH and Waterboro ME. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - "Old Man Winter" took a siesta, with snow a scarcity across the nation. For the second day in a row Alamosa CO reported a record low of 31 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary)

1989 - Strong and gusty winds prevailed along the eastern slopes of the northern and central Rockies. Winds gusted to 71 mph at Colorado Springs CO and Livingston MT. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - The first winter storm of the new year and decade developed in the southwestern U.S., and blanketed the northern mountains of Utah with 12 to 23 inches of snow. Up to 22 inches of snow was reported in the Alta-Snowbird area. The storm brought Las Vegas NV their first measurable precipitation in four and a half months, since the 17th of August. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1994 - High winds buffeted the Northern Front Range of Colorado during the morning hours. Peak wind gusts included 105 mph atop Squaw Mountain near Idaho Springs and 89 mph at Fort Collins. A fast moving "Alberta Clipper" brought up to six inches of snow to Iowa. Up to a foot of snow blanketed the Snowy Range Mountains in southeastern Wyoming. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1999: A powerful winter storm developed over the Texas panhandle and moved northeast through the Missouri bootheel and then north northeast through eastern Illinois and into Michigan. Snow began accumulating in east-central Illinois and areas south of Chicago during the early evening hours of New Year's Day and overspread the city and north suburbs by midnight. Snow continued through the night and much of the day Saturday, January 2. The heaviest snow fell during the daytime hours Saturday and tapered off by late afternoon or early evening and ended by late evening. Northeast winds were 20 to 30 mph with a few higher gusts during the day Saturday. Winds gusted to over 50 mph along the Lake Michigan shoreline. The strong wind coming off the lake enhanced snowfall totals within about 10 miles of the lake. Snowfall was generally 9 to 15 inches over north central and east central Illinois and in the Chicago suburbs. Snowfall in Chicago and the north suburbs in Lake County was 18 to 22 inches. Winds subsided Saturday evening as the storm center passed over southern Lake Michigan. Then strong northwest winds developed Sunday, causing considerable blowing and drifting and hampering clean-up efforts.  The 21.6 inches at O'hare, the official observing site for Chicago, was the second greatest storm total snowfall. The record was 23.0 inches January 26-27, 1967. Of the 21.6 inches, 18.6 fell on January 2, setting a record for the most snowfall on a calendar day. Other snowfall amounts included; Algonquin 14.0, Aurora 14.4, Barrington 18.0, Brookfield 15.1, Bourbonnais 14.0, Channahon 13.0, Chatsworth 17.0, Coal City 13.0, Compton 9.7, Crestwood 14.2, DeKalb 12.4, Dixon 16.4, Earlville 11.3, Fairbury 13.0, Geneva 13.0, Glenwood 16.0, Harvard 9.0, Lake Villa 17.9, LaGrange Park 15.0, Midway Airport 20.6, Mundelein 10.0, Naperville 11.0, Olympia Fields 15.8, Orland Park 13.8, Rochelle 9.6, Rockford 9.0, Streamwood 14.0, Willow Springs 12.0. The heavy snow and blowing snow caused hazardous travel. Lake Shore Drive was closed down for the first time ever. State, county, and local road crews worked around the clock. The City of Chicago Department of Streets and Sanitation spent 12 million dollars on snow removal efforts. Three hundred flights were canceled at O'Hare and Midway airports.

 

2006: Six tornadoes impacted central and northern Georgia. The tornadoes were rated from F0 to F3.

2008 - The second day of 2008 brought snow to areas of Indiana, Ohio and the Appalachians through the Northeastern United States. Parts of New England received the heaviest amounts, with some areas receiving storm totals of over 15 inches (38 cm) in several areas of central and eastern Maine. (NCDC)

 

2017: 36 confirmed tornadoes impacted the Deep South from Louisiana to Georgia. Many of the tornadoes came from line segments of storms known as quasi-linear convective systems. A larger convective system also created numerous wind damage reports, and in Alabama, four people died from straight-line winds. 

[SACRUS]

 

NYC

2014: Jan 2/3  : 6.5 inches of snowfall

[SACRUS]

 

2014 storm:

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/deep-freeze/storm-kicked-new-year-numbers-n3351 

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

NYC

2014: Jan 2/3  : 6.5 inches of snowfall

With temps in the teens

[NorthShoreWx]

A few stray snowflakes in the air here.  I wouldn't even call it a flurry, but being the diligent reporter that I am...there you go.

39⁰

[eduggs]

The 1/9 - 1/11 event seems to still be in play despite being a bit of a long shot. I like the shortwave diving south through the upper mid-west midweek. The end of run ICON looked workable but I'd sure like to see some improvement to the GFS & CMC this run. Trof axis is okay but obviously too much confluence as modeled through New England and the Maritimes. We've seen that resolved favorably on occasion through the years.

[North and West]

The worst period for me growing up was 89 to 92. Between Feb 89, dec 89 and the warm winters that followed even though it snowed it never felt like winter as the snow would be gone in a couple days. In fact it felt like those days were gone until 93 suddenly changed that with the March blizzard first and then the epic winter that followed

That was elementary school for me!




.

[Allsnow]

26 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The 1/9 - 1/11 event seems to still be in play despite being a bit of a long shot. I like the shortwave diving south through the upper mid-west midweek. The end of run ICON looked workable but I'd sure like to see some improvement to the GFS & CMC this run. Trof axis is okay but obviously too much confluence as modeled through New England and the Maritimes. We've seen that resolved favorably on occasion through the years.

The gfs is trying at 12z but the position of the 50/50 is horrible. 

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The gfs is trying at 12z but the position of the 50/50 is horrible. 

CMC as well but that 50/50 is n/s over Maine. Just not going to work as depicted 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Crap phases of the Mjo coming after MLK day. I would think the pac gets more hostile at that point 

Way out there but this is a much better look if we want an overrunning event. At least better than what we're seeing now. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Way out there but this is a much better look if we want an overrunning event. At least better than what we're seeing now. 

Hopefully that nao is correct because we will need it in that look 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Hopefully that nao is correct because we will need it in that look 

Agreed on the nao part. What I like about this look if it is to come true is we do good with a slight RNA and negative nao. What we want to avoid is the last 2 years where we have an epic trough to Mexico. Slight RNA and a good nao block and we could be talking big snow.

[wdrag]

May add a thread for 3p-9P tomorrow 1/4-1” south of I80.  Need a recheck at 7P. This was on WSSI-P a few days ago and area of coverage of snow showers may be expanding. You may recall my questioning what it was trying to say.  Now I think I know. Strong shortwave and secondary cold push with fairly large lapse rates. 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Agreed on the nao part. What I like about this look if it is to come true is we do good with a slight RNA and negative nao. What we want to avoid is the last 2 years where we have an epic trough to Mexico. Slight RNA and a good nao block and we could be talking big snow.

The only reason I would bet against a big trough in the west is because we haven’t had it yet this winter. But the back half Nina’s are notorious for that look 

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, Allsnow said:

The eps has Central Park below frz from the 6th to 16th 

that’s impressive if true 

My guess is that NYC will see several days with highs over 32° from the 6th to 16th. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Hopefully that nao is correct because we will need it in that look 

Very gradient look on the CFS for February. 

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

The only reason I would bet against a big trough in the west is because we haven’t had it yet this winter. But the back half Nina’s are notorious for that look 

Agreed and don't forget the stronger than forecast Hudson blocking that models have missed. That could play a huge role in the back half of winter despite the Nina pattern. 

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

A few stray snowflakes in the air here.  I wouldn't even call it a flurry, but being the diligent reporter that I am...there you go.

39⁰

There are some "white things" blowing around here in Linden, NJ, but I can't tell if it is snow or just weed dander from the nearby wetlands?

[Euripides]

Radar picking up some very light activity

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=DIX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

[MJO812]

We need help from the southeast ridge. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

We need help from the southeast ridge. 

Time to unbuckle 

[steve392]

Flurries in little ferry, nj

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Time to unbuckle 

I just did after I ate

[MJO812]

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I just did after I ate

Brooklyn? 

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Brooklyn? 

Other forum

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We need help from the southeast ridge. 

While the ensembles may be smoothing things out too much, all 3 OP runs try to show a transient Southeast Ridge in 10 days.