January 2025

[Cobalt]

4 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Never seen such a quiet stretch of weather modeled, we can go 0.00 QPF for weeks in the heart of winter

that cutter pattern you predicted for the next 2 weeks could help with that

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

The neg nao is hurting us the most imo 

It’s hurting us some, but not “the most” IMO.  The PAC is killing us “the most.”  As Chris (@bluewave) said, some relaxation of the raging PAC jet might actually have allowed us to harness the ATL-side block to our advantage.  This has been the PAC story for a few years now though.
 

FWIW, my amateur view continues to be that we might get enough of a temporary respite from it to score something this winter and that it’ll cycle downward some over the next few winters.  The worst is behind us, in other words.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, North and West said:

What does it mean?


.

Continuation of the December and multiyear theme. Long range guidance has been too strong with the 500 mb heights and -EPO near Alaska. So as we get closer models show lower heights there. So if they are beginning to show more of a +EPO long range, then the +EPO could verify even stronger in the longer range. Same way the -EPO forecast verified weaker. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Currently getting light rainshowers changing to snow showers. Winds getting a bit gusty. 39°

[Wxoutlooksblog]

We are on the backside of a trough. Backsides of troughs are usually drier than normal and colder than normal. Occasionally we get a break with a clipper but the cold air is gone and we get t-storms. Then we're on the backside of the trough again. Rinse and repeat. That looks like the pattern we are in and yes snow for portions of the deep south.

WX/PT

[sussexcountyobs]

Rain showers have now completely changed over to snow.

[North and West]

I know you guys are a lot smarter than me with this stuff, but how can there be any certainty about what’s going to happen for the next three weeks? Most of you didn’t think it was going to snow a few days before Christmas until it actually was.

Of course there are trends and all of that, but it’s the same thing every year. I wouldn’t commit to anything beyond five days regarding definite outcomes.

Thanks for coming to my TED Talk.


.

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

We are on the backside of a trough. Backsides of troughs are usually drier than normal and colder than normal. Occasionally we get a break with a clipper but the cold air is gone and we get t-storms. Then we're on the backside of the trough again. Rinse and repeat. That looks like the pattern we are in and yes snow for portions of the deep south.

WX/PT

Thanks for this at least the gefs tries to move the trough a little West and the geps does the same to a lesser extent. 

On a side note I cannot remember when we have been on the backside of a trough like this for an extended period of time perhaps not since the eighties.

[steve392]

46 and stray showers and strong winds. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Currently:

Snow showers. 36°

[RedSky]

Aurora alert G4 solar storm with current KP level of 8

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for this at least the gefs tries to move the trough a little West and the geps does the same to a lesser extent. 

On a side note I cannot remember when we have been on the backside of a trough like this for an extended period of time perhaps not since the eighties.

We'll see about Monday. There's still an outside chance the low tracks a little closer or that the precipitation shield is a bit more widespread leading to some significant accumulations our way. But I am pessimistic right now. I think it's going to be predominantly cold/dry with brief warm-ups featuring some convective precipitation at times. I do recall similar winters when we went extended periods of time with cold and dry (just flurries) and then it warmed up and rained.

WX/PT

[Roger Smith]

Large changes can and probably will happen in 6-10 day intervals.

[donsutherland1]

A gradual transition toward sustained colder than normal weather is getting underway. Temperatures could fall to below normal readings during or after the coming weekend.

The second and third weeks of January will likely feature widespread cold anomalies in much of the eastern half of the CONUS and Canada south of the Hudson and James Bays. The potential exists for widespread cold anomalies of 6°-10° below normal during that week in parts of that region, particularly the Southeast. Overall, January will likely be colder than normal in such cities as Philadelphia and New York City.

Should the AO dive below -3.000, which now appears likely, the prospects for a significant or major snowfall in the New York City area could be reduced. Since 1950, a January AO ranging from -2.600 to -1.400 accounted for the largest share of 6" and 10" or above January snowfalls for storms that dumped 4" or more snow in New York City. For the 4" or above storms, 67% saw 6" or more while 56% went on to see 10" or more. When the AO was -3.000 or below, 60% of 4" or above snowstorms saw 6" or more snowfall, while 20% of those storms saw 10" or more. The exact synoptic details will be crucial to determining whether that potential will be realized.

As a result, a storm that brings parts of the Middle Atlantic region a moderate snowfall Sunday night into Monday could bring only a light amount to the New York City area. It is possible that all of the snow could miss to the south of the City. Richmond will very likely see its current record streak of 1,081 days without daily 1" or greater snowfall come to an end.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome was favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. Even as the NAO outlook appears on course to be relatively accurate, Winter 2024-2025 will likely wind up being notably colder than the subset of winters listed above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.53°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop persists. On the December 19 outlook, 56% of dynamical models but 0% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña.

The SOI was -1.97 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.282 today.

 

[sussexcountyobs]

Southern Texas, north Georgia, South Carolina,  North Carolina, Virginia,  even northern Mexico. Will see more snow over this 2-3 week cold period. NYC metro may receive ZERO snow.

[RedSky]

2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Southern Texas, north Georgia, South Carolina,  North Carolina, Virginia,  even northern Mexico. Will see more snow over this 2-3 week cold period. NYC metro may receive ZERO snow.

Don't forget Saudi Arabia

[sussexcountyobs]

4 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Don't forget Saudi Arabia

And the U.S. Virgin Islands. Lol

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Southern Texas, north Georgia, South Carolina,  North Carolina, Virginia,  even northern Mexico. Will see more snow over this 2-3 week cold period. NYC metro may receive ZERO snow.

Honestly if it’s suppressed to garbage hundreds of miles south it sucks but it’s not as painful as a 2/6/10 where a megaband makes it 20 miles from you and there’s little more than light sand in your backyard. More dry useless cold. Hopefully around mid month it doesn’t go directly back to endless warm cutters and we get an opportunity. 

[Poker2015]

2 hours ago, RedSky said:

Aurora alert G4 solar storm with current KP level of 8

 

Wasn't that last night? I can't find anything for tonight besides way up north

[Allsnow]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Continuation of the December and multiyear theme. Long range guidance has been too strong with the 500 mb heights and -EPO near Alaska. So as we get closer models show lower heights there. So if they are beginning to show more of a +EPO long range, then the +EPO could verify even stronger in the longer range. Same way the -EPO forecast verified weaker. 

Don’t look for above normal temperatures any time soon 

 

 

[gravitylover]

22 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Honestly if it’s suppressed to garbage hundreds of miles south it sucks but it’s not as painful as a 2/6/10 where a megaband makes it 20 miles from you and there’s little more than light sand in your backyard. More dry useless cold. Hopefully around mid month it doesn’t go directly back to endless warm cutters and we get an opportunity. 

Or watching Nemo bury LI and I got an inch

[WestBabylonWeather]

It’s windy. 

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Don’t look for above normal temperatures any time soon 

 

 

Doesn’t look like any -20 departures like we saw back on 12-22 at least through the next two weeks. 

[Rjay]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Doesn’t look like any -20 departures like we saw back on 12-22 at least through the next two weeks. 

But probably cold enough for snow and that's all that matters on these forums 

[mattinpa]

3 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Large changes can and probably will happen in 6-10 day intervals.

Agreed - while no snow is on the table we’ve seen so much change in that timeframe.

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Doesn’t look like any -20 departures like we saw back on 12-22 at least through the next two weeks. 

Looks like normal to slightly below

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks like normal to slightly below

Stop trolling. It's solidly BN. 

[cleetussnow]

34 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks like normal to slightly below

Looks like you need to read a map.  

[Allsnow]

39 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks like normal to slightly below

The eps has Central Park below frz from the 6th to 16th 

that’s impressive if true 

[RedSky]

2 hours ago, Poker2015 said:

Wasn't that last night? I can't find anything for tonight besides way up north

Bad timing it peaked this afternoon but KP levels dropped near sunset