January 2025

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Same situation as we have seen in recent years with the coldest departures going to our west or south. The delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay and strong blocking there is keeping nearby Canada very mild. You can see the milder temperatures relative to the means working down into Northern Maine.

 

Yeah we are stuck in this decadal pattern unfortunately. Hopefully this shakes up in a couple years, however personally I can live without frigid cold as long as it's cold enough to snow.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I was just going to post this. This isn't good at all. 

The tropical forcing progression supports the pattern breaking down but after mid-month. The models are likely rushing it. It’s probably more along the lines of the blocking and cold starting to break down around 1/20 or just after

[Allsnow]

The gfs bring a historic winter storm to the Deep South 

[SACRUS]

Sun rises at its latest 7:20AM  for the next 8 days through the 7th.  We have gained a net total of 4 minutes of day light since the shortest day and now 12 mins later sunset from the earliest sunset 4:28 PM on Dec 4th - 12th.

[EastonSN+]

Wow!

[Allsnow]

[EastonSN+]

This would be fun to watch.

[EastonSN+]

Wave spacing hurt the ability for this to come up the coast.

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That's hilarious 

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wow!

Funny thing is that would never happen.  Having forecast for that area for years lows needs to usually be 1000mb or weaker or they'll track over cntrl or northern AL/GA.  Its very rare you can get a low to deepen into the 990s and remain all snow in ATL, the track will usually end up over or near them

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's hilarious 

Definitely a huge possibility the south gets a good winter storm next week 

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Definitely a huge possibility the south gets a good winter storm next week 

There has been a wild snow drought in places like GSP/ATL.  Those are not exactly snowy places but they also do not go 5 plus years without a 1-2 inch snow event that often, they both have gone I think 7-8 now

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There has been a wild snow drought in places like GSP/ATL.  Those are not exactly snowy places but they also do not go 5 plus years without a 1-2 inch snow event that often, they both have gone I think 7-8 now

If this forecast holds up the next storm the Delmarva has been doing well recently.

[Allsnow]

It’s crazy how the ens missed this huge neg nao 

 

It will probably be the reason the next two weeks are cold/dry 

[Allsnow]

Brooklyn? 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Brooklyn? 

This weather is so boring and nothing on the horizon.

 

Ukie is well south of 0z

[EastonSN+]

Forky did mention a few pages ago that this period could easily be cold and dry.

[cardinalland]

having the coldest departures to our south and a big fat trough east of us is a suppression city look... I would want one of these things to moderate for a better outlook

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah we are stuck in this decadal pattern unfortunately. Hopefully this shakes up in a couple years, however personally I can live without frigid cold as long as it's cold enough to snow.

Most of the time it’s cold enough to snow here in January. Some of our snowiest Januaries were warmer than average. But our big issue since the 18-19 has been the overpowering Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. So it makes it harder to get heavy snows here with the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. I would gladly take a warmer January like 2016 and 2017 if we had a primary benchmark storm track instead with the multiple KU events those years. Hopefully, we can get the fast Pacific flow with so many shortwaves close together to relax enough for at least one 4”+ or 6”+ event in NYC before the +PNA -AO eventually fades. But as we have seen even during some colder intervals this time of year there is no guarantee. Since the suppressed southern stream issue is showing up in the modeling wit the fast Pacific flow with multiple embedded shortwaves plus the 50/50 confluence. This is a situation where a dominant STJ would probably be of more benefit.

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This weather is so boring and nothing on the horizon.

 

Ukie is well south of 0z

The position of the 50/50 is awful. We would be better off  without it given the pna out west. It’s a good pattern for the Deep South 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Most of the time it’s cold enough to snow here in January. Some of our snowiest Januaries were warmer than average. But our big issue since the 18-19 has been the overpowering Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. So it makes it harder to get heavy snows here with the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. I would gladly take a warmer January like 2016 and 2017 if we had a primary benchmark storm track instead with the multiple KU events those years. Hopefully, we can get the fast Pacific flow with so many shortwaves close together to relax before the +PNA -AO eventually fades.

The neg nao is hurting us the most imo 

[cardinalland]

a good thing is the pattern is fairly long-lasting and the AO dump keeps things cool-ish across the continent for a while. many chances for a storm to pop up

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I was just going to post this. This isn't good at all. 

This is the positive EPO you are seeing 

[donsutherland1]

The AO is now forecast to drop toward -4.000 in coming days. That can lead to suppressed solutions. Indeed, the EPS 500 mb height anomalies at 132 hours illustrates the issue. I've compared the map with a cluster of 6" or greater January snowstorms for the NYC area during AO-/PNA+ regimes. That's why the best chance for accumulating snow--perhaps even a moderate snowstorm--will likely be from Philadelphia and southward. A light snowfall is possible in the NYC area, but one can't rule out the prospect that all of the snow misses to the south at this point.

Put simply, the forecast pattern through at least January 10th is not conducive for KU snowstorms even as there will be sufficient cold. Richmond's ongoing record-breaking 1,081-day stretch without a 1" or above snowfall will likely end, perhaps on Sunday or Monday.

[SnoSki14]

20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The position of the 50/50 is awful. We would be better off  without it given the pna out west. It’s a good pattern for the Deep South 

Good for them at least. Some haven't seen snow in years

Honestly if the strong NAO lasts into Feb with SE ridge popping it could be a good gradient pattern for us 

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The neg nao is hurting us the most imo 

A neg nao would not be an issue with a great STJ pattern like we had in 2016 with the super El Niño. A La Niña dominant Northern Stream makes the 50/50 an issue. On top of the generalized faster Pacific Jet since 18-19.

[EastonSN+]

EPO flips negative again after a short positive time on the gefs.

PNA starts to relax and the block remains this looks like a better opportunity for us. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

EPO flips negative again after a short positive time on the gefs.

PNA starts to relax and the block remains this looks like a better opportunity for us. 

EPS continues the dry cold pattern from December 

[North and West]

I was just going to post this. This isn't good at all. 

What does it mean?


.

[psv88]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Brooklyn? 

He’s securing his seatbelt