January 2025

[MJO812]

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

Can we absorb the New Year’s Eve hail we just had before the 1000 hour gfs please thanks 

Just rain here

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not there yet but good bump north

Yup good trends getting the confluence weaker

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yup good trends getting the confluence weaker

Cmc also

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc also

like i said earlier we are not even sure all that confluence is being modeled correctly and have to wait till the system out in the pacific comes onshore so more accurate data is made available for the models to get a better handle on this situation This post should be in the storm thread - sorry folks !

[WestBabylonWeather]

This is so epic. Hail on new years eve. Man I’m wired now 

[SnoSki14]

43 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc also

Another reason to tread lightly on model runs this far out

[MJO812]

44 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

2nd storm back on GFS if it is even real this far out

Cmc was also gathering in the gulf

[Rjay]

On 12/30/2024 at 11:53 PM, NEG NAO said:

Walt started a new thread for next weeks potential

 

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Yikes I have been posting in the wrong thread - sorry about that !

[psv88]

Happy new year all.

crazy thunderstorms earlier as others have said. Our best thunderstorms are always in the winter nowadays 

[MJO812]

Happy new year 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Can we absorb the New Year’s Eve hail we just had before the 1000 hour gfs please thanks 

I don't think that was hail was it? Just really heavy rain with lots of lightning and thunder!  That was a spring storm for us!

I'd love to see something like this during the day.

[snowman19]

This may well be a case of Bernie Rayno’s rule of having to wait until we are on the end/backside of the arctic outbreak before an event happens. 1/1 - 1/15 may well end up dry. It might take until all the blocking is breaking down and the cold is pulling out before something happens. Here’s a good disco:
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[gravitylover]

^^ Bummer. Cold without snow sux.

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

^^ Bummer. Cold without snow sux.

I wouldn't give up yet. GEFS/EPS been trending with less confluence and more amplification. 

Still several days to go

[gravitylover]

Yeah, just responding to the post. I don't give up until March.

This fog is intense. I coudn't even see the back of the yards across the street a few minutes ago, now it's dissipating super fast!

[bluewave]

Happy New Year everyone. This was probably the most lightning we have ever seen to ring in the New Year. Very impressive light show here.

 

[qg_omega]

Never seen such a quiet stretch of weather modeled, we can go 0.00 QPF for weeks in the heart of winter

[Snowshack]

6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Never seen such a quiet stretch of weather modeled, we can go 0.00 QPF for weeks

Were you around in October?

[bluewave]

Same situation as we have seen in recent years with the coldest departures going to our west or south. The delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay and strong blocking there is keeping nearby Canada very mild. You can see the milder temperatures relative to the means working down into Northern Maine.

 

[SACRUS]

 

49 / 46 0.23 in the bucket overnight.  Windy near 50.  Much colder 1/3 - 1/15 coming up, will the precip breach the area.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 63 (1973)
NYC: 62 (1966)
LGA: 60 (2019)
JFK: 62 (1966)


Lows:

EWR: 6 (2018)
NYC: -4 (1918)
LGA: 8 (2018)
JFK: 7 (2018)

 

Historical:

 

1767: The morning temperature in Boston was -8°F

1864 - Snow, gales and severe cold hit the Midwest. It was the most bitter cold New Year's day of record with afternoon highs of 16 below zero at Chicago IL and 25 below at Minneapolis MN. (David Ludlum)

1864: A historic cold blast of air charged southeast from the Northern Plains to Ohio Valley. Chicago had a high temperature of -16°. A farmer near Huntertown, Indiana, reported the same high temperature as Chicago, with a low of 21 degrees below zero. He remarked "rough day" in his weather diary. Minneapolis had a temperature of 25 degrees below zero at 2 PM. St. Louis, Missouri, saw an overnight low of 24 degrees below zero. The Mississippi was frozen solid with people able to cross it.

 

1888: The Signal Corps office opened in Rapid City, South Dakota, on January 1, 1888. It was located in the Sweeney Building at the corner of 7th and Main Streets. The high and low temperature that day was 6 and -17°F.

 

1892: At Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, dandelions were in bloom in parks.

1934 - Heavy rain which began on December 30th led to flooding in the Los Angeles Basin area of California. Flooding claimed the lives of at least 45 persons. Walls of water and debris up to ten feet high were noted in some canyon areas. Rainfall totals ranged up to 16.29 inches at Azusa, with 8.26 inches reported in Downtown Los Angeles. (The Weather Channel)

 

1935: The Associated Press Wire Photo Service made its debut, delivering the great weather maps twice each day to newspapers across the country. The first photo transmitted was a plane crash in the Adirondack of New York on this day. The plane crashed during the evening hours on December 28, but the rescue did not occur until New Year's Day.

1949 - A six day blizzard began over the Northern Rockies and the Great Plains. The storm produced the most adverse weather conditions in the history of the west. (David Ludlum)

 

1961: A three-day-long ice storm was beginning over northern Idaho, which produced an accumulation of ice eight inches thick, a U.S. record. Dense fog, which blanketed much of northern Idaho from Grangeville to the Canadian border, deposited the ice on power and phone lines, causing widespread power outages.

 

1964: A snowstorm struck the Deep South on December 31st, 1963, through January 1st, 1964. Meridian MS received 15 inches of snow, 10.5 inches blanketed Bay St Louis MS, and 4.5 inches fell at New Orleans, LA. The University of Alabama Head Football Coach “Bear” Bryant said that the only thing that could have messed up his team’s chances in the Sugar Bowl against Ole Miss in New Orleans, LA was a freak snowstorm. Well, much to his chagrin, 4.5 inches of snow fell the night before the big game. Alabama won the game 12-7 anyway. Freezing temperatures then prevailed for New Year’s Day.

1979 - The temperature at Maybell CO plunged to 60 degrees below zero to tie the state record set back in 1951 at Taylor Park. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A winter storm brought rain and snow and high winds to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast Region. The storm, which occurred in a period of unusually high astronomical tides, produced a tide of 9.4 feet at Myrtle Beach SC (their highest since Hurricane Hazel in 1954) which caused a total of 25 million dollars damage in South Carolina. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Arctic cold gripped the north central U.S. The morning low of 31 degrees below zero at Alamosa CO was a record for the date. Squalls in the Great Lakes Region produced 17 inches of snow at Elmira NY. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Those who woke up New Year's morning unable to see much farther than the end of their nose had a good excuse, at least in the central U.S., as dense fog prevailed from Texas to Wisconsin. (National Weather Summary)

1990 - The new year and decade began on a rather peaceful note. Snow was primarily confined to the Great Lakes Region, the Upper Ohio Valley, and the Sierra Nevada Range of California. Subzero temperature readings were confined to Minnesota and North Dakota. (National Weather Summary)

1994 - Strong winds along the eastern slopes of the Central Rockies gusted to 70 mph at Arlington WY, and gusted to 80 mph near Estes Park CO. Heavy snow in the northeast mountains of Oregon produced 14 inches at Tollgate. A series of storms the first three days of the year produced 20 inches of snow at Lowman, in the west central mountains of Idaho. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1997 - Heavy precipitation fell from December 26, 1996 to January 3, 1997 in much of the west. In the California Sierra Nevadas the Truckee River reached its highest level on record. Lake Tahoe reached its highest level since 1917. Sacramento was spared the worst of the flooding by a system of levees, although many nearby towns were not so fortunate. Numerous levee breaches and breaks occurred across the state. Approximately 16,000 residences were damaged or destroyed. State officials estimated at least $1.6 billion in damages to private and public property.

1999 - A major blizzard struck portions of the Midwest on January 1-3, 1999. The storm produced 22 inches of snow in Chicago and was rated by the NWS as the second worst blizzard of the 20th century, ranking behind the blizzard in January 1967. Estimates of losses and recovery costs are between $0.3 and $0.4 billion with 73 dead as a result of the blizzard. (NCDC)

 

1999: The start of 1999 was ushered in with snow, ice, and freezing weather across central and south-central Nebraska. On New Year's Day, a steady snowfall along and north of Interstate 80 dumped from 1 to 5 inches of snow. By late morning, freezing drizzle developed southeast of Hastings and eventually coated area roads with a layer of ice. Light snow later that evening made travel even more treacherous. Several accidents occurred on the Interstates and Highway 30. Once the ice and snow ended, arctic air spilled across the area abroad 20 to 30 mph north winds. Blowing and drifting of the fallen snow caused reduced visibilities for a time on the 2nd. Temperatures dropped to 5 to 15 below zero through midday the 3rd.

2011: Southern and central Mississippi saw 11 tornadoes during the night of December 31st into the morning hours of January 1st. Of the 11, two were EF-3 with two more EF-2. Six were EF-1 with one EF-0.

[SACRUS]

NYC

Jan 1 1971 : 6.4 inches of snow

[snowman19]

Same situation as we have seen in recent years with the coldest departures going to our west or south. The delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay and strong blocking there is keeping nearby Canada very mild. You can see the milder temperatures relative to the means working down into Northern Maine.




 

There’s a couple of issues besides the record warm Hudson Bay and the wide open waters there….The total lack of snowcover in the northeast/bare ground and the still unfrozen, open Great Lakes. That airmass, though arctic, is going to modify a lot by the time it reaches the east coast 

[MANDA]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There’s a couple of issues besides the record warm Hudson Bay and the wide open waters there….The total lack of snowcover in the northeast/bare ground and the still unfrozen, open Great Lakes. That airmass, though arctic, is going to modify a lot by the time it reaches the east coast 
 

The greatest departures from normal for this upcoming cold always looked like they would be south central plains into the southeast.  Anything coming into the Mid-Atlantic / Northeast will be greatly muted for the reasons you all suggested.  Also, not great snow cover over the Plains, Mid-West / Ohio Valley either so even eastbound could will be modified.  Gold standard for Arctic outbreaks is -40 at 850, not seeing that either.  At least over the next 7-10 days.  Still, this looks like a solid stretch of BN cold upcoming even if it is against our warmest set of normals on record.

 

 

[tristateweatherFB]

Anyone else puzzled/worried?

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There’s a couple of issues besides the record warm Hudson Bay and the wide open waters there….The total lack of snowcover in the northeast/bare ground and the still unfrozen, open Great Lakes. That airmass, though arctic, is going to modify a lot by the time it reaches the east coast 
 

Same issue across North America and the entire Northern Hemisphere. 
 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html

 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, tristateweatherFB said:

Anyone else puzzled/worried?

I was just going to post this. This isn't good at all. 

[EastonSN+]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Happy New Year everyone. This was probably the most lightning we have ever seen to ring in the New Year. Very impressive light show here.

 

Are there any sites where historical data for thunderstorms are listed for NYC?

[EastonSN+]

55 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I was just going to post this. This isn't good at all. 

All three ensemble suites look fine. At this point we need some sort of a shake up otherwise it's a Mid-Atlantic and southeast favorable pattern for snow.