January 2025

[brooklynwx99]

45 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I hate when the 540 line is 5 miles north of me

those are heights, not thicknesses. it’s a very cold setup 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Continuing to see good indications around days 14-16 even if development at this long time range is weak, I can sense that any amplification of the very cold trough will quickly change the look on surface development and provide fuel for a coastal low around then. GFS for the first threat (as on other guidance and in the new thread) has so far refused to bite but in the current setup with so much mild air around, weak disturbances working with moderate cold outbreaks can fool the models quite easily before 48h. I would not be surprised if there's a 7-10 inch event around Jan 7-8, then deeper cold and a setup for a bigger storm to follow much below normal days. I can't see BN or MBN regimes staying dry next to a warm Atlantic and it's not like there's a raging northwest flow pumping in cold, dry air, it's a seep of cool, moist air from a northerly source. Hard to keep that sort of air mass stable for two weeks. 

See December 1989 for cold and dry (and that was a real cold December, unlike this one.)

 

 

[sn0w]

12 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Yellow perch? Or white?

Brown trout are typically the target, but pull up plenty of yellow perch in the process

[bluewave]

The Arctic outbreak in early January looks similar to other ones we have seen during the 2020s. The coldest departures relative to the means go to our west and south. Nearby Canada is still warmer than average with the delayed freeze- up around Hudson Bay.

 

https://sites.google.com/view/arctic-sea-ice/home/nsidc-arctic

 

[EastonSN+]

So close to a archambault event signal. Only item missing is the mjo in phase 8 which is going to phase 1 now.

[forkyfork]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Arctic outbreak in early January looks similar to other ones we have seen during the 2020s. The coldest departures relative to the means go to our west and south. Nearby Canada is still warmer than average with the delayed freeze- up around Hudson Bay.

 

https://sites.google.com/view/arctic-sea-ice/home/nsidc-arctic

 

will we even get a high below freezing?

[North and West]

So close to a archambault event signal. Only item missing is the mjo in phase 8 which is going to phase 1 now.

What’s this newfangled event? Add that to the pile of things I’ve never heard of before


.

[North and West]

will we even get a high below freezing?

I hope not just so that everyone goes crazy


.

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, North and West said:

What’s this newfangled event? Add that to the pile of things I’ve never heard of before


.

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/03/pacific-archambault-signal-for-equinox.html

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

will we even get a high below freezing?

Thought we wouldn't want it too cold and suppressed better to be closer to the line.

[EastonSN+]

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Arctic outbreak in early January looks similar to other ones we have seen during the 2020s. The coldest departures relative to the means go to our west and south. Nearby Canada is still warmer than average with the delayed freeze- up around Hudson Bay.

 

https://sites.google.com/view/arctic-sea-ice/home/nsidc-arctic

 

I thought for true arctic cold we need a setup without blocking. Good examples are 93/94 and 13/14 where there was a lack of blocking allowing Canada to have negative departures and therefore allowing a colder air mass to come South. When there is blocking Canada has positive departures which would modify air masses coming south, hence a smaller cold pool when there's blocking.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

See December 1989 for cold and dry (and that was a real cold December, unlike this one.)

 

 

Thank goodness we're not seeing 1989 again that was a worst case scenario for snowfall. Nothing worse than getting one of the coldest Decembers of all time with limited snowfall then heading into extreme warmth the rest of the winter LOL. 

[MJO812]

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's truly amazing to see all three ensemble suites keeping the East Coast trough right through to the end without a major sign of falling apart.

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

will we even get a high below freezing?

I wonder if we've already seen the greatest negative departures of the winter when the high was in the low 20s and lows in the low teens in December?

[EastonSN+]

As expected with the warming Waters in the Indian Ocean a stronger wave in phases 1 and 2 

[EastonSN+]

[EastonSN+]

Here is December 1989. Nao and AO are positive.

[SnowGoose69]

Its crazy that today we've got convection in the area tonight.  The OH Valley is getting a perfect track low and its not even snowing north of the low.  If you were still living in the 1980s when models only went out 5 days you'd have no idea what was coming

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Here is December 1989. Nao and AO are positive.

a lot of our greatest arctic outbreaks were like this

here's the below 0 ones I remember:

 

January 1977, January 1979, Christmas 1980, January 1982, January 1984, January 1985, January 1994, February 2016

 

Notice how their return times have become much longer....

 

They became much more rare after 1985 and especially after 1994.......

1993-94 had MUCH more snow than ANY of the others (and lots of ice too!) 2015-16 had our greatest and only 30"+ snowstorm here.

 

 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

a lot of our greatest arctic outbreaks were like this

here's the below 0 ones I remember:

 

January 1977, January 1979, Christmas 1980, January 1982, January 1983, January 1985, January 1994, February 2016

 

Notice how their return times have become much longer....

 

They became much more rare after 1985 and especially after 1994.......

1993-94 had MUCH more snow than ANY of the others (and lots of ice too!) 2015-16 had our greatest and only 30"+ snowstorm here.

 

 

Yeah just looking at the setups of the major Arctic outbreaks like 1989 13 14 and 93 94 there is a lack of blocking which makes sense since blocking would have positive departures in Canada. Without blocking it's negative departures All the Way North.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah just looking at the setups of the major Arctic outbreaks like 1989 13 14 and 93 94 there is a lack of blocking which makes sense since blocking would have positive departures in Canada. Without blocking it's negative departures All the Way North.

that's probably why those kind of winters usually have average snowfall seasons.  1993-94 and 2013-14 were different because there were just so many storms lol.  No 20"+ blockbusters but lots of moderate and a few major events too and many snow to ice scenarios.

 

[NittanyWx]

Confluence vs an under sampled shortwave is always fun.

[qg_omega]

19 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is why blocking patterns are so favorable... watch how everything slows way down and allows for a phase, albeit messy. a +NAO pattern wouldn't even be close to one

I’ll take an +NAO +PNA and -EPO.  We have a cutter pattern with record warmth transitioning to a shredder pattern with below normal but far from record cold.  Just nothing to look forward to for weeks on end during the heart of winter  

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I thought for true arctic cold we need a setup without blocking. Good examples are 93/94 and 13/14 where there was a lack of blocking allowing Canada to have negative departures and therefore allowing a colder air mass to come South. When there is blocking Canada has positive departures which would modify air masses coming south, hence a smaller cold pool when there's blocking.

13-14 was more centered over the Midwest. 93-94 was one of the last times that Canada was able to load with so much Arctic air. Our best Arctic outbreak around NYC since 94 was during one of our warmest winters in 15-16 on Valentines Day. The key was the solid blocking north of Alaska. So NYC was able to go below 0° which it couldn’t pull off in the much colder 13-14 and 14-15 winters. 

 

 

[qg_omega]

19 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is why blocking patterns are so favorable... watch how everything slows way down and allows for a phase, albeit messy. a +NAO pattern wouldn't even be close to one

Congrats Mexico

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Congrats Mexico

if i'm going to be in your head this much you could at least ask me to pay you rent

[MJO812]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

can you please get out of my mentions? rent free

Ignore the troll

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

I’ll take an +NAO +PNA and -EPO.  We have a cutter pattern with record warmth transitioning to a shredder pattern with below normal but far from record cold.  Just nothing to look forward to for weeks on end during the heart of winter  

So a cutter pattern you would prefer?

[qg_omega]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

So a cutter pattern you would prefer?

I’ll take SWFE all day vs what we have coming up, at least we can snow before the rain.  Upcoming pattern is straight torture