LibertyBell Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: NYC gets 1-3. Not bad but I think the 6th will be for the Mid Atlantic. Not sure how far north it comes January 6th is the 29th anniversary of January 6, 1996. You want to know what we were progged to get on this date in 1995 for January 6, 1996? ZILCH ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 12z/30 NAEFS still pretty dry... bothersome. Walking the dog, eating din and then maybe start a chancy-likely minor northern fringe thread at 8P for 1/6-7 event which still could end up dead on but for now. I think conservative is best policy. I cant buy into an event 1/8-11 atom, though it still can happen but best for me to shave off the back end event potential. Uncertainty. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I was living in Norwalk Connecticut on the coast and we never changed the rain ended up with 22. Yeah it was crazy there and eastern Long Island 30 inches I think that started as rain here and then changed to snow not snow to rain (I like rain to snow much better obviously lol), kind of like the late February 2010 snowicane here in that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: It's weird seeing so much of that blue stuff on a weather map, perfect timing too in deep winter as opposed to spring like in years past. Timing it up with snow is a whole other issue but having extended cold air in place is half the battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Weak Miller B on gfs for the 6th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Weak Miller B on gfs for the 6th Snowfall is a general one to three and not bad leading into the cold air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Gfs might show a big storm again next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs might show a big storm again next weekend Just missed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: two decades.... meaning going back to the 2003-04 winter? They probably mean for January..... as I don't believe this will be as cold as February 2015 was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 this is why blocking patterns are so favorable... watch how everything slows way down and allows for a phase, albeit messy. a +NAO pattern wouldn't even be close to one 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 29 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is why blocking patterns are so favorable... watch how everything slows way down and allows for a phase, albeit messy. a +NAO pattern wouldn't even be close to one Ok 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 I think the big storm will come mid-January (14 to 16 time frame) and models will begin to respond to it slowly at first, you can see today at end of GFS run there's a bit of a vortmax trying to gather energy around the base of the eastern trof, but the shaping isn't conducive yet. If that feature amplifies and catches the energy peak on Jan 13-14, boom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 6 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Ok On 12/27/2024 at 8:56 AM, qg_omega said: Looks like a cutter pattern on the ensembles 3 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: Have a cutter tomorrow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Looking like I'll probably be able to ice fish for the first time in 2-3 years... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Ok You have been here long enough to know about the models and blocking patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: Don't feed the troll 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 2 hours ago, sn0w said: Looking like I'll probably be able to ice fish for the first time in 2-3 years... Yellow perch? Or white? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Nice shift north on the Icon from 12z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Ukie is way north of 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Walt started a new thread for next weeks potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ukie is way north of 12z And GFS and CMC are sheared out messes and give us nothing so who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 5 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: And GFS and CMC are sheared out messes and give us nothing so who knows. Cmc shifted way north of 12z also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc shifted way north of 12z also A big hit for many, it just doesn't make it up here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 17 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: And GFS and CMC are sheared out messes and give us nothing so who knows. The gfs has basically no precip in our area for the entire run after tomorrow night lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Continuing to see good indications around days 14-16 even if development at this long time range is weak, I can sense that any amplification of the very cold trough will quickly change the look on surface development and provide fuel for a coastal low around then. GFS for the first threat (as on other guidance and in the new thread) has so far refused to bite but in the current setup with so much mild air around, weak disturbances working with moderate cold outbreaks can fool the models quite easily before 48h. I would not be surprised if there's a 7-10 inch event around Jan 7-8, then deeper cold and a setup for a bigger storm to follow much below normal days. I can't see BN or MBN regimes staying dry next to a warm Atlantic and it's not like there's a raging northwest flow pumping in cold, dry air, it's a seep of cool, moist air from a northerly source. Hard to keep that sort of air mass stable for two weeks. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 06z euro if it went past 144 hours would have been further north for the Monday system. The vort was strong and hgts not as suppressed. A cutter/ridge pattern can help us in a setup like this one 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 29 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 06z euro if it went past 144 hours would have been further north for the Monday system. The vort was strong and hgts not as suppressed. A cutter/ridge pattern can help us in a setup like this one straight out of the Mid-Atlantic weenie handbook 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: straight out of the Mid-Atlantic weenie handbook I hate when the 540 line is 5 miles north of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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