January 2025

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep light event 

I think the confluence will ease as we get closer..

IMO it will beef up a bit still 7 days away 

pattern argues this will try to cut 

[jm1220]

Useless dry cold is a possibility here too, shredded crap or everything suppressed way south. There are definitely ways this cold period can pan out with little snow. We just have to be patient. 

[EastonSN+]

This is for most of the period with the light events not terrible. 

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I think the confluence will ease as we get closer..

IMO it will beef up a bit still 7 days away 

pattern argues this will try to cut 

From a technical perspective is it still a cutter if it redevelops south of us?

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

From a technical perspective is it still a cutter if it redevelops south of us?

First of all being so far out in time we have no idea if these solutions so far today are even close to correct. Remember last night when the 0Z Euro gave us a Major Snowstorm + - wait for the Euro solution..........and then their ensembles - IMO the Canadian and GFS develop the systems in 2 different areas far apart out west shows the difference in opinions and probably wrong

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

First of all being so far out in time we have no idea if these solutions so far today are even close to correct. Remember last night when the 0Z Euro gave us a Major Snowstorm + - wait for the Euro solution..........and then their ensembles - IMO the Canadian and GFS develop the systems in 2 different areas far apart out west shows the difference in opinions and probably wrong

Yeah I was just curious as we have seen snow storms where the primary goes through the Great lakes well north of us then redevelops south of us so I guess technically it cuts then redevelops it is not technically a quote unquote cutter. The primary during Nemo in 2013 went through to Buffalo and we still had a massive blizzard.

[Allsnow]

I don’t think the energy will be so weak going into the plains 

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I think the confluence will ease as we get closer..

IMO it will beef up a bit still 7 days away 

pattern argues this will try to cut 

I think so also. The NAO isn't as strong as it modeled days ago. We will still have blocking so anyhting that tries to cut will be forced to redevelop.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Fwiw this is the UKMET

Only runs through 168 doesn't tell us much only that the energy is south similar to the Canadian which then shears out past 168

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I think so also. The NAO isn't as strong as it modeled days ago. We will still have blocking so anyhting that tries to cut will be forced to redevelop.

this is all too complicated for any model this far out - so solutions are wrong IMO

[EastonSN+]

Just for entertainment the entire run 

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Just for entertainment the entire run 

Clown Map - doesn't make sense with the wide variations region wide with all the cold air in place post the Canadian and the Euro when it comes out and compare

[winterwx21]

35 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Useless dry cold is a possibility here too, shredded crap or everything suppressed way south. There are definitely ways this cold period can pan out with little snow. We just have to be patient. 

To me any accumulating snow is a good thing. Hopefully we'll get something bigger, but odds are very high that we'll at least see light events with the extended cold weather that we're going to have in January. It's going to snow. 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Clown Map - doesn't make sense with the wide variations region wide with all the cold air in place post the Canadian and the Euro when it comes out and compare

It makes sense if we get several light events and a more moderate event that favors eastern areas. Some places will do better than others through mid month

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It makes sense if we get several light events and a more moderate event that favors eastern areas. Some places will do better than others through mid month

We will get something between now and the end of the month. Agree with others, big event might wait until the block breaks down 

[Volcanic Winter]

Hell of a lot better than staring at Baja troughs and an eastern ridge bouncing so hard it's like it's trying to fling Montreal over the top of Greenland and into Europe...

This is cool, we're in a decent spot here and have something fun to watch for a change. Way better than I think any of us expected at this time.

[MJO812]

Euro might be showing a favorable solution for our area and to the south for the 6th

[Allsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Euro might be showing a favorable solution for our area and to the south for the 6th

Came south from 00z. Bwi and phl do very well 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Came south from 00z. Bwi and phl do very well 

NYC gets 1-3. Not bad but I think the 6th will be for the Mid Atlantic. Not sure how far north it comes

 

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NYC gets 1-3. Not bad but I think the 6th will be for the Mid Atlantic. Not sure how far north it comes

 

Along with anything else suppression depression 

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NYC gets 1-3. Not bad but I think the 6th will be for the Mid Atlantic. Not sure how far north it comes

 

A 988 on the coast works and 2 runs in a row - don't worry about amounts yet....

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

Along with anything else suppression depression 

whats so suppressed about a 988 LP off the Delmarva ?

[Allsnow]

The idv for the 6th on the eps do have some good hits for the area 

[brooklynwx99]

I'm starting to like the 6th... the longwave pattern is such that if you get a decent wave, it'll just launch into the confluence and lead to a nice gradient with FGEN. 50/50 is locked in, so pretty much no risk of a cutter, would just be a Miller B if the wave is super amped or a thump to drizzle at worst. pretty much a snow or nothing kind of setup. unlikely to see anything major, but a 3-6" or 4-8" event is certainly on the table

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I'm starting to like the 6th... the longwave pattern is such that if you get a decent wave, it'll just launch into the confluence and lead to a nice gradient with FGEN. 50/50 is locked in, so pretty much no risk of a cutter, would just be a Miller B if the wave is super amped or a thump to drizzle at worst. pretty much a snow or nothing kind of setup. unlikely to see anything major, but a 3-6" or 4-8" event is certainly on the table

The pattern doesn’t support a weak s/w coming out into the plains imo 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I think the dominant features of the pattern we'll move into will probably be the confluence around the big upper low over the Canadian Maritimes and the wind and cold. The idea of a few snowfall events on the lighter side with low pressure systems racing across to our south makes sense to me followed by one more formidable storm. We'll have periods of dry but very cold weather prior to maybe some moderation late in the month.

WX/PT 

[mattinpa]

34 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I think the dominant features of the pattern we'll move into will probably be the confluence around the big upper low over the Canadian Maritimes and the wind and cold. The idea of a few snowfall events on the lighter side with low pressure systems racing across to our south makes sense to me followed by one more formidable storm. We'll have periods of dry but very cold weather prior to maybe some moderation late in the month.

WX/PT 

This has started better than the last 2 winters. If we can get a few inches with the 6th storm and then a major storm after that it would be great. Pattern will eventually moderate but we have a window. 

[Allsnow]

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah I was just curious as we have seen snow storms where the primary goes through the Great lakes well north of us then redevelops south of us so I guess technically it cuts then redevelops it is not technically a quote unquote cutter. The primary during Nemo in 2013 went through to Buffalo and we still had a massive blizzard.

well the primary did its dirty work here since it was rain here for half the storm, 10 inches of snow isn't bad though

 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

well the primary did its dirty work here since it was rain here for half the storm, 10 inches of snow isn't bad though

 

I was living in Norwalk Connecticut on the coast and we never changed the rain ended up with 22.