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January 2025

Monmouth_County_Jacpot

By Monmouth_County_Jacpot,
in New York City Metro

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brooklynwx99
brooklynwx99

i’m a degreed meteorologist that does long range forecasting professionally. i’m actually quite conservative for my job, believe it or not. i have been looking at this stuff since I was 10 years old

brooklynwx99
brooklynwx99

would you like me to make posts about when the pattern is crappy? usually everyone knows when it’s not going to snow so i don’t really bother wasting any more space on it here you go. warm and we

BxEngine
BxEngine

Youre gonna hurt your neck. 

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

Zoomed in, since this is the NYC forum - I'll take two of these, please, lol.  Still almost 8 days out, so no surprise the Ops aren't aligned, but at least the major ensembles are fairly aligned for decent snowfall through day 10+.  I check about twice a day for a few minutes, since the uncertainty is still way too high for Op run consistency or reliability.  

As many have noted, the biggest story could end up being brutal cold in the SE US, which could lead to major crop damage in Florida and temps near 32F as far south as Miami (last freeze there was in 1989). 

sn10_acc-imp.us_state_ne_s.png

 

sfctmin_024h-imp.us_state_fl.png

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
6z GFS takes the 2nd wave up the coast as a 963mb snow bomb. Another OP run another solution. It’s all about timing, spacing and a little luck. The type of pattern where we could cash in big time or end up empty handed. Right now I’m fairly confident with a solution somewhere in the middle.
At least cutters and inland runners won’t be a concern with that blocking. I agree, that we either see a hit or suppressed. All wave spacing and baroclinic zone placement dependent 

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wdrag

wdrag

Posted
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Good morning.  Jan 3-early Jan 4 I95 corridor:  Strong short wave, unstable lapse rates and possibly some dustings of snow leak out of the mountains and make to the I95 corridor.  Any scattered amounts under 1/2".

Jan 6-7 no thread yet due to NAEFS being conservative on probs for more than 1 tenth of an inch in 24 hours, less than 40% and less than 50% over 48 hours.  Will monitor day runs. I want to see more emphasis northward in the Canadian modeling.

I am discarding the idea of a large 5 day window to track.  Whatever happens after Jan 7 can have its own storm thread. For now,  I want to see Jan 6-7 look a little better for our area before committing a thread. 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

At least cutters and inland runners won’t be a concern with that blocking. I agree, that we either see a hit or suppressed. All wave spacing and baroclinic zone placement dependent 

We have had a dominant cutter, hugger, and suppression storm for most of the time since February 2022. So it may take some time to get a coastal track closer to the sweet spot for a 4”+ or 6”+ snow near NYC. You can see all 3 models with the windshield wiper effect from run to run the last 3 days. So it may just take some patience for something to click for us. Since there Northern Stream is still so active wave spacing and suppression could initially be an issue for us. I wouldn’t get invested on any individual system until 2-3 sets of models show it under 120 hrs. Plus we could always get a system that tracks too far north across the area and brings mixing issues near the coast if the vort ejecting from the West kicks up a transient ridge ahead of it. 

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Good morning.  Jan 3-early Jan 4 I95 corridor:  Strong short wave, unstable lapse rates and possibly some dustings of snow leak out of the mountains and make to the I95 corridor.  Any scattered amounts under 1/2".

Jan 6-7 no thread yet due to NAEFS being conservative on probs for more than 1 tenth of an inch in 24 hours, less than 40% and less than 50% over 48 hours.  Will monitor day runs. I want to see more emphasis northward in the Canadian modeling.

I am discarding the idea of a large 5 day window to track.  Whatever happens after Jan 7 can have its own storm thread. For now,  I want to see Jan 6-7 look a little better for our area before committing a thread. 

Did you see the 6Z GFS?  Has a general 1-3" snowfall for most of EPA/NJ/SENY (including Philly/NYC) on 1/6 and then has a monster snowstorm with a foot or more for the region on 1/10.  Kind of fits your two thread idea.  

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wdrag

wdrag

Posted
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23 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Did you see the 6Z GFS?  Has a general 1-3" snowfall for most of EPA/NJ/SENY (including Philly/NYC) on 1/6 and then has a monster snowstorm with a foot or more for the region on 1/10.  Kind of fits your two thread idea.  

Yes I did see it and have seen ensembles through 06z/30.  Was going to issue this morning but the NAEFS has me bothered overdoing this.  1/2" snow in CP won't do it for the forum interests.  

My own opinion is that several inches of snow will fall here in that 1/6-10 time frame but LI might be melting a lot of it. Modeling all over the place.

Am thinking of just going with 1/6-7 late today and let the second one ride on its own if it's still there (the old Friday 12/27 CPC probabilistic chance of S+).

06Z/30 GEFS 500 looks a little flatter to me, favoring us on the northern fringe instead of dead on with a storm.  This is a D7-9 outlook... just a little too soon for me to guide it to more realistic potential and it can still sharpen and track too close.  

At least we're in the ball game, and seeming to be so for the entire month.  

In the back of mind is preseason outlook  snowy area this winter north of I90 and we're shaky on the edge of unknown but long overdo for at least a 4" event in CP. If we get a couple events this month, they still might add up to the CP monthly average. Certainly so far for me not a KU pattern. Those are rare. 

Snow in this pattern after Jan 4 would be long lasting --

I'm an inpatient person sometimes but I've got to hold back. I know my mentors would not be pleased that I'd not learned anything after 2005 (use of ensembles). 

Back at 630P for hopefully a useful thread. 

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted

For what it's worth the euro and the gefs now are in general alignment on the mjo. Both stay very weak in phase 8 and have a small spike in phase 1. I believe a couple of METS said the mjo is likely having very little influence on the weather pattern. This is likely true as we saw a couple cold outbreaks in December when the mjo were in warm phases.

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