January 2025

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

It all comes down to the ridge out west. 

The ridge today was a little weaker over Oregon with the fast Pacific flow lowering heights from yesterday for the storm on the 6th. So the storm ends up further south today under the block. We probably have to be patient with patterns like this since it can take time for the Pacific and Atlantic get in sync for a nice east coast storm. 

New run

 

Old run

 

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It may take some time for the fast Northern Stream to back off a bit. We saw it was a big player in December. The EPS is just a few degrees too far east with the systems. So it has an active storm track into British Columbia and just off the East Coast. Slow the Pacific flow just a bit and we will be in business here. 
 

New 12/29 EC ensemble eased a bit on its 12/28 insistence drier than normal here.  Below to compare. 

[North and West]

Miller B

Am I wrong (I don’t know enough and don’t care to learn because of the type of person that I am) but I thought Miller Bs are not good for our area?


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[bluewave]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

New 12/29 EC ensemble eased a bit on its 12/28 insistence drier than normal here.  Below to compare. 

We can see a back and forth shift from run to run with set ups like this. The good news is that the AO blocking  has corrected much stronger in recent days. So it will probably take time for the Pacific flow to back off enough for a nice East Coast snowstorm. But we often have to be patient in situations like this since it’s hard to tell which shortwave will be the first to establish the favorable storm track.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

Am I wrong (I don’t know enough and don’t care to learn because of the type of person that I am) but I thought Miller Bs are not good for our area?


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Sometimes they form too far to our north and east but other times they are great for us

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, North and West said:

Am I wrong (I don’t know enough and don’t care to learn because of the type of person that I am) but I thought Miller Bs are not good for our area?


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All depends on where the coastal low redevelops and where the associated mid level lows redevelop from a primary. If they form SE of us we have a good outcome. If they don’t until the storm is gone and we’re dryslotted, it’s a lousy outcome. 

[Violentweatherfan]

26 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Sometimes they form too far to our north and east but other times they are great for us

Miller B storms are the preferred storm type for central nj and northward. I’d prefer Miller B storms over Miller A if I lived in this forum area. 

[psv88]

46 minutes ago, North and West said:

Am I wrong (I don’t know enough and don’t care to learn because of the type of person that I am) but I thought Miller Bs are not good for our area?


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Miller Bs are better for Long Island and New England for the most part. Miller As better north and west of the city 

[North and West]

Miller Bs are better for Long Island and New England for the most part. Miller As better north and west of the city 

Good to know. Since I live in the western hinterlands, I would prefer a Miller A.




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[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, North and West said:

Good to know. Since I live in the western hinterlands, I would prefer a Miller A.




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There's also c, d and e

[Nibor]

https://glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/stormtypes.htm
 

For the uninformed. 

[EastonSN+]

GFS with a really strange storm evolution. 

 

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

GFS with a really strange storm evolution. 

 

because it being 9 days out chances are its confused and wrong........and it  is the 18Z with outdated input

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

because it being 9 days out chances are its confused and wrong........

Likely a Miller b that gets cut off and lingers rather than what it's showing.

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Likely a Miller b that gets cut off and lingers rather than what it's showing.

Yea please. Need another Snowicane. I miss those days. 

[Rjay]

18z shit hasnt been true in like 15 years

[Rjay]

23 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Likely a Miller b that gets cut off and lingers rather than what it's showing.

I really hope that trailing shortwave doesn't exist or wave spacing could become an issue for the next system.  We have a ton of time to figure this out though.  Maybe our big boy storm isn't even in view yet but I still like our chances at something significant in January.  

[Rjay]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

what a sick trend. we've gone from a rather transient east-based Greenland ridge to a true west-based retrograding Davis Strait block. this will lead to legit potential for a significant to major storm when it decays, as is usual

this pattern generally favors NYC down to RIC honestly

[wdrag]

My feeling,  NYC subforum should average an inch or 2 minimum between 1/6 and 1/10... if not from a storm system, then on a brief period of southerly flow WAA ahead of the next fronts with unstable moist south-southwest flow, since it should be pretty cold around these parts by 1/5.    There could be parts of LI less than 1" due to warm adjacent waters.

Eventually I will probably start a 1/6-10 thread but am waiting it out 12-48 more hours---trying to be a little more sure about the basis (1/6-10).  From what I can tell in the 24 hour ensembles,  we wont be nil qpf here...  For now from my review (may have missed something) , models disagree on qpf.  It's difficult to believe mainly nw surface flow 1/2-10. There has to be a front or two (low pressure systems) in there with those short waves. 

I continue curious about the 12z/29 GEPS-Canadian attempt to bring a period of light snow to the NYC subforum this Saturday 1/4. Right now, all other modeling is nil so probably no go, but I'd like to give this another day or two to be sure Jan 4 is an absolute nil with dry nw flow - scattered non measured flurries around our coastal plain. 

For whatever this is worth and view with grains of salt, I took a look at the GEFS 00z/28 SD...  I84 corridor once 2" gets down (presuming) by 1/10-11, the snow hold for the rest of January with occasional additional accumulations. 

I'll check back tomorrow morning. 

 

[Dark Star]

5 hours ago, North and West said:

Am I wrong (I don’t know enough and don’t care to learn because of the type of person that I am) but I thought Miller Bs are not good for our area?


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I find it amazing that the 540 line is almost always smack dab over NYC...

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, Rjay said:

I really hope that trailing shortwave doesn't exist or wave spacing could become an issue for the next system.  We have a ton of time to figure this out though.  Maybe our big boy storm isn't even in view yet but I still like our chances at something significant in January.  

Bernie Rayno is correct IMO. There is going to be one storm between 1/6 - 1/10. You aren’t getting both due to wave spacing and baroclinic zone movement. Whether or not we actually cash in remains to be seen but I sell a cutter. I sell that all day like it’s on fire. We aren’t getting a cutter with that blocking. It’s either a storm, intensity tbd or no storm/suppressed, sheared out. That’s the threat 

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Bernie Rayno is correct IMO. There is going to be one storm between 1/6 - 1/10. You aren’t getting both due to wave spacing and baroclinic zone movement. Whether or not we actually cash in remains to be seen but I sell a cutter. I sell that all day like it’s on fire. We aren’t getting a cutter with that blocking. It’s either a storm, intensity tbd or no storm/suppressed, sheared out. That’s the threat 

Bold statement this far out 

[MJO812]

Jan 6 will be more north than 18z gfs this run

[cleetussnow]

58 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Bernie Rayno is correct IMO. There is going to be one storm between 1/6 - 1/10. You aren’t getting both due to wave spacing and baroclinic zone movement. Whether or not we actually cash in remains to be seen but I sell a cutter. I sell that all day like it’s on fire. We aren’t getting a cutter with that blocking. It’s either a storm, intensity tbd or no storm/suppressed, sheared out. That’s the threat 

You haven’t got a clue.  You are out of your depth.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Jan 6 will be more north than 18z gfs this run

Weak system

[MJO812]

Just now, cleetussnow said:

You haven’t got a clue.  You are out of your depth.

He has been wrong so far this winter.

[cleetussnow]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

He has been wrong so far this winter.

I noticed there isn’t a universal push by forum members to spring him from 5 post jail.  PS. We may have a miller B brewing on gfs.  
 

edit: no.  Weird solution

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I noticed there isn’t a universal push by forum members to spring him from 5 post jail.  PS. We may have a miller B brewing on gfs.  
 

edit: no.  Weird solution

1st wave gets shredded 

[NEG NAO]

Canadian still says "What Storms" ? Not interested in developing anything - not a flake here all week

 

[H2Otown_WX]

28 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Canadian still says "What Storms" ? Not interested in developing anything - not a flake here all week

 

Congrats Texarkana?