January 2025

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Gfs setting up a blizzard for the 11th

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[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Close

Ironically we need more of a Southeast ridge which can be done through more of a Southwest development and negative tilt.

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Close

Yup. Suppression is a risk but it’s better then a lakes cutter storm track 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Ironically we need more of a Southeast ridge which can be done through more of a Southwest development and negative tilt.

Another factor that I am unfamiliar with is wave spacing and how this may come into play obviously the more space between waves the better chance for amplification.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Another factor that I am unfamiliar with is wave spacing and how this may come into play obviously the more space between waves the better chance for amplification.

That’s why we get such big variance between the collection of OP Euro, GFS, and CMC runs beyond 120 hrs. The ensemble means try to smooth out the spacing and amplitudes of each individual shortwaves. So ensemble means probably are good starting point for us. 

[MJO812]

Gefs for the 6th is flatter than the op

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Another factor that I am unfamiliar with is wave spacing and how this may come into play obviously the more space between waves the better chance for amplification.

You want a couple days worth of space between the two storms so the first doesn’t ruin the baroclinic zone and suppress/weaken the second when it’s right on its heels but you still want an influence for it to act as a 50-50 type low and prevent too much amplification from the second. If there’s enough cold air in place going into the first storm and it really does act as a SWFE, the rules for it at I-80’s latitude apply-where does the storm redevelop particularly the mid level lows that bring mid level warm air, does the snow come in as a wall vs shredded up which allows the warm air to take over faster, how much cold air initially etc. If it’s the right setup we all can see 3-6” on the front end and mostly frozen before we dry slot or we can struggle to an inch or two before rain/sleet. Still way out there so we have to watch the upper air trends. 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

The EPs and gefs are in line with the blocking and the Pacific region. The one difference is the mjo where the gefs is very weak in phase 8 and then strengthens in phase 1 while the euro is much more amplified in phase 8.

[CooL]

Every single Telly is in our favor. Massive blocking. We are going to get multiple snowstorms just thru the 15th

[mob1]

UKIE looks a bit too amplified at this point 

[SnowGoose69]

the first storm to me the UKIE idea might be more accurate.  I think the ridge out west is just way too far west that even with the -NAO the storm will cut

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

the first storm to me the UKIE idea might be more accurate.  I think the ridge out west is just way too far west that even with the -NAO the storm will cut

That's lobe in Canada is pressing South at the same time which can hinder the storm from cutting.

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, mob1 said:

UKIE looks a bit too amplified at this point 

It's good to see the 540 line all the way down to Norfolk.

[MJO812]

Euro suppression for every wave. Block too strong.

Quite possible with this upcoming pattern 

 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro suppression for every wave. Block too strong.

Quite possible with this upcoming pattern 

 

The first wave is a nice little snow storm for North Carolina LOL.

[qg_omega]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro suppression for every wave. Block too strong.

Quite possible with this upcoming pattern 

 

Most likely honestly 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Most likely honestly 

It all comes down to the ridge out west. 

[greenmtnwx]

7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Most likely honestly 

The snow will come. It might take a while, even a few weeks. In January 2003 it took a few weeks to really get a decent snow, but with a pattern like that, it always comes. It comes in many different ways, clippers perhaps an Archimbault on the back end, but we usually always get a decent snow cover. If we get a 2 to 4 week decently deep cold pattern I find it hard to believe that New York City won’t score at least double digit snowfall. A nice 10+ inch month of January will ease some of the recent pain.

[SnoSki14]

12 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Most likely honestly 

I don't think so. It's going to snow

[ForestHillWx]

Step back from the ledges; these are going to flop like fish out of water for a while; nothing is certain in any direction  

Be happy the players are on the field and enjoy the hunt. 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

The snow will come. It might take a while, even a few weeks. In January 2003 it took a few weeks to really get a decent snow, but with a pattern like that, it always comes. It comes in many different ways, clippers perhaps an Archimbault on the back end, but we usually always get a decent snow cover. If we get a 2 to 4 week decently deep cold pattern I find it hard to believe that New York City won’t score at least double digit snowfall. A nice 10+ inch month of January will ease some of the recent pain.

I think we will all see snow. Small to moderate event in the beginning and a huge event when the blocking breaks down. 

[steve392]

53 degrees out and humid. Sun breaking through finally. 

[winterwx21]

26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't think so. It's going to snow

Yeah if we get consistent cold for a couple weeks in January (which looks very likely), odds are very high that we'll get a snow event at some point. 

[bluewave]

It may take some time for the fast Northern Stream to back off a bit. We saw it was a big player in December. The EPS is just a few degrees too far east with the systems. So it has an active storm track into British Columbia and just off the East Coast. Slow the Pacific flow just a bit and we will be in business here. 
 

[wdrag]

Obviously no thread from me tonight regarding potential 1 or 2 snow-ice events 1/6-10. Just need to wait it out till consistent consensus for 2-7". This will calm (I hope )posting of any operational snow amounts beyond 168 hours.  I haven't seen 12z/29 NAEFS nor CMCE but enough for me already to postpone any thread for 1/6-10.  

Sure looks good for making ice on the ponds, and this time plenty for ice fishing once (presuming) it gets thick in mid January. 

We are lucky to see single model guidance beyond 7 days, but there must be a personal responsibility inherent with posting--- the idea is to be in the eventual ballpark of reality and careful about buying into the excesses.  I'm pretty sure we will all see some minor event between 1/6-10 but when and how much...  unknowns for me. 

 

Adding on at 224P: NAEFS and CMCE pretty steady from the 00z/29 cycle so it says an event No access yet to the probs for 1/4" qpf. 

[brooklynwx99]

what a sick trend. we've gone from a rather transient east-based Greenland ridge to a true west-based retrograding Davis Strait block. this will lead to legit potential for a significant to major storm when it decays, as is usual

this pattern generally favors NYC down to RIC honestly

[MJO812]

Eps is still impressive with the mean for our area.

[BxEngine]

On 12/27/2024 at 8:56 AM, qg_omega said:

Looks like a cutter pattern on the ensembles 

 

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Most likely honestly 

Youre gonna hurt your neck. 

[mahk_webstah]

38 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

what a sick trend. we've gone from a rather transient east-based Greenland ridge to a true west-based retrograding Davis Strait block. this will lead to legit potential for a significant to major storm when it decays, as is usual

this pattern generally favors NYC down to RIC honestly

50-50 much stronger than overnight runs?

 

[forkyfork]

i feel better about the pattern now that this closed block showed up