January 2025

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Euro

Wow nice signal this far out

[wdrag]

Pretty impressive opportunities Jan 6-10.  Snow depth change trend on the 00z/29 cycle allows for 2+ w Li and overall 00z and 06z ensemble cycles continue 2-7" entire subforum Jan 6-10 (10 to1).  Realizing this is still 8+ days in advance,  this can disintegrate for some of us but probably not all of us. It's difficult to believe that there wont be at least one accumulative snow event for most of the subforum in that Jan 6-10 window. 

For now I think the CMCE is the outlier throughout its 00z/29 forecast cycle.  It's much slower processing the NY eve T-square rain event, dragging its heels out of here around daybreak NY Day; and also with a low prob opportunity for snow along the I95 corridor early Saturday Jan 4.  From what I can tell, both those solutions will be incorrect.  Presuming those are incorrect, then the CMCE ideas Jan 6-10 are back shelved in favor of some sort of EPS/GEFS blend.

So, as others have said,  being specific beyond D7 is fraught with error.   The CPC D8-14 is not enthusiastic for normal qpf here, and so despite the CPC Jan 4-10 probabilistic chance for heavy snow here, I cant be sure what will evolve for Li.

Unless the 12z/29 ensembles fade for the 6th-10th,  I'll probably post a thread near 7PM today, for the 6th-10th.  That might shift tracking from this Jan thread.  Presuming that thread starts,  it will also be an OBS thread for either one or the other event (or non event).  If we get the first one, then the second event will split off from this thread but we're along long ways from knowing what will happen. 

It seems difficult to avoid hazardous snow amounts in this subforum save for LI. At least the nearby water SSTs are not above normal.

nwNJ: Fingers crossed on 2"+ snow depth returning in this Jan 6-10 period with staying power sometime (possibly for the month).  

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Until the Canadian and Euro and ensembles agree with the GFS multiple runs in a row on a snowstorm threat in January can't take the GFS seriously and who wants to be in the GFS bullseye this far out ? Sorry have to wait till we get into the 5-7 day range IMO to make a forecast...

It’s patterns like this that make us want to see OP runs only be made available through 120-168 hrs. Everything beyond that point should just be ensemble means. People posting these individual long range OP snowfall charts on social media will actually cause issues for the NWS. We saw this several years ago when some long range OP snowfall  charts were posted around Philly and the NWS had to issue a statement due to a poster on social media. I think it’s the responsibility of the modeling centers to do this since once a model forecast is in the public domain it’s going to be posted by somebody.

[North and West]

Jfc this is going to be a social media shit storm. 

this is why you don’t do that, boys and girl


.

[brooklynwx99]

this is honestly the MECS progression we’ve been waiting for. west based block retrogrades and rots over the Davis Strait with confluence in place. some of our larger storms shared this same progression 

[WestBabylonWeather]

50 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Pretty impressive opportunities Jan 6-10.  Snow depth change trend on the 00z/29 cycle allows for 2+ w Li and overall 00z and 06z ensemble cycles continue 2-7" entire subforum Jan 6-10 (10 to1).  Realizing this is still 8+ days in advance,  this can disintegrate for some of us but probably not all of us. It's difficult to believe that there wont be at least one accumulative snow event for most of the subforum in that Jan 6-10 window. 

For now I think the CMCE is the outlier throughout its 00z/29 forecast cycle.  It's much slower processing the NY eve T-square rain event, dragging its heels out of here around daybreak NY Day; and also with a low prob opportunity for snow along the I95 corridor early Saturday Jan 4.  From what I can tell, both those solutions will be incorrect.  Presuming those are incorrect, then the CMCE ideas Jan 6-10 are back shelved in favor of some sort of EPS/GEFS blend.

So, as others have said,  being specific beyond D7 is fraught with error.   The CPC D8-14 is not enthusiastic for normal qpf here, and so despite the CPC Jan 4-10 probabilistic chance for heavy snow here, I cant be sure what will evolve for Li.

Unless the 12z/29 ensembles fade for the 6th-10th,  I'll probably post a thread near 7PM today, for the 6th-10th.  That might shift tracking from this Jan thread.  Presuming that thread starts,  it will also be an OBS thread for either one or the other event (or non event).  If we get the first one, then the second event will split off from this thread but we're along long ways from knowing what will happen. 

It seems difficult to avoid hazardous snow amounts in this subforum save for LI. At least the nearby water SSTs are not above normal.

nwNJ: Fingers crossed on 2"+ snow depth returning in this Jan 6-10 period with staying power sometime (possibly for the month).  

I’ll gladly take a few inches on Long Island with a month long staying power 

[bluewave]

This rapid increase in AO blocking over the last 10 days of runs may be getting and assist from the record warmth around Hudson Bay with the lowest ice there on record for this time of year. 
 

 

New EPS run first week of January 

Old run

 

 

 

[TriPol]

My goodness!

[donsutherland1]

The fireworks of the December 29 0z ECMWF and GFS runs have now faded. Even as those runs aren't cast in stone, they provided a glimpse of the potential that lies ahead. A colder pattern will develop starting around January 2-3. As an AO-/PNA+ pattern develops, the potential for moderate or perhaps significant snowfalls will increase in the northern Mid-Atlantic region, including the New York City area.

The cold will be in place. There will be some short waves that offer the possibility of blossoming into storms. Synoptic details will be crucial. From this far out, they can't be resolved with reliability. Individual ensemble member snowfall forecasts maintain a wide spread among dates (January 6-12).  Typically, they converge on a single narrow timeframe in advance of a significant or major event.

In the meantime, below are 500 mb clusters for New York City's January 6" or above snowstorms during AO-/PNA+ regimes, which are most favorable for significant events relative to climatology, for reference.

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, TriPol said:

My goodness!

Concrete with the cold air after the storm

[MJO812]

[Allsnow]

On 12/28/2024 at 9:56 AM, Allsnow said:

Our best shot at 4+ might be the storm around the 5/6th which looks like more of an overrunning type deal before rain. That’s a strong high in place ahead of the storm. Obviously we wouldn’t want the primary to get to strong or track to far west 

Still really like our chances next weekend. I think we can get on the board with a solid event 

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Still really like our chances next weekend. I think we can get on the board with a solid event 

Gfs looks alot better with January 6-7 storm. Better confluence. 

[MJO812]

This looks good

[MJO812]

Miller B

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Miller B

Shades of December 2020 

[Stormlover74]

Nice cold moderate event

[BoulderWX]

I’d take the 6” from todays run for the first storm and run even if the second didn’t come to fruition… that’s how bad the past couple of years have been. Only 200+ hours out, what could go wrong lol

[BoulderWX]

Snow in SC/GA/NC at 225. Don’t see that too often

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Shades of December 2020 

This setup could trend favorably given pattern aloft. Lots of confluence nearby with strong blocking present 

[forkyfork]

yawn. give me the 944mb super blizzard on the eps

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

yawn. give me the 944mb super blizzard on the eps

Enjoy the front end thump 

[NEG NAO]

The Canadian is completely different with the storm still far south

[Rjay]

5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

yawn. give me the 944mb super blizzard on the eps

 

[NEG NAO]

Canadian stays south and off the coast

[Allsnow]

Gfs setting up a blizzard for the 11th

[EastonSN+]

Completely oversimplifying, however, the stronger the first wave is on the modeling the more weakened and suppressed the second wave is and what we have seen so far on the 12z guidance so far. That being said, the initial wave could trend stronger and still give us a heavy snow storm.

[Allsnow]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Completely oversimplifying, however, the stronger the first wave is on the modeling the more weakened and suppressed the second wave is and what we have seen so far on the 12z guidance so far. That being said, the initial wave could trans stronger and still give us a heavy snow storm.

The first wave has a lower ceiling but higher floor. 

[SnoSki14]

Following day 7+ OP runs will give you an aneurysm. Just follow the ensembles and give it a rest until after the new year. 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The fireworks of the December 29 0z ECMWF and GFS runs have now faded. Even as those runs aren't cast in stone, they provided a glimpse of the potential that lies ahead. A colder pattern will develop starting around January 2-3. As an AO-/PNA+ pattern develops, the potential for moderate or perhaps significant snowfalls will increase in the northern Mid-Atlantic region, including the New York City area.

The cold will be in place. There will be some short waves that offer the possibility of blossoming into storms. Synoptic details will be crucial. From this far out, they can't be resolved with reliability. Individual ensemble member snowfall forecasts maintain a wide spread among dates (January 6-12).  Typically, they converge on a single narrow timeframe in advance of a significant or major event.

In the meantime, below are 500 mb clusters for New York City's January 6" or above snowstorms during AO-/PNA+ regimes, which are most favorable for significant events relative to climatology, for reference.

Thanks for this Don, one interesting factor to monitor are the high temperatures on the East Coast and how this may increase the intensity of a storm off the coast in a similar way that hurricanes have been stronger due to the warmer ocean temps. This leads to your earlier post on potential declining snowfall totals for our region and how stronger more intense storms may slow the average snowfall averages decline. Another advantage that we hold in addition to latitude over the DC area is that our region is in a better position for Miller B's where the DC region is more reliant on Miller A's.