January 2025

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, WX-PA said:

It's been really below normal since Thanksgiving..January has been really cold. Very few people saw this in November.

January 2025 is the colder departure.  Don't forget, our average normal departures are based on the most recent 20 year averages, which are warmer than the 20 years before that, and 20 years before that.  So although November and December were colder than the "average"  is really wasn't that cold, just  closer to "normal"

[Brian5671]

36 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

It's been really below normal since Thanksgiving..January has been really cold. Very few people saw this in November.

CFS 10 days before 1/1/25 had coast to coast warmth-incredible bust there

[mgerb]

28 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

January 2025 is the colder departure.  Don't forget, are average normal departures are based on the most recent 20 year averages, which are warmer than the 20 years before that, and 20 years before that.  So although November and December were colder than the "average"  is really wasn't that cold, just "normal"

Minor correction: 30 years, not 20. 

[donsutherland1]

32 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Does this map use normals from the 70s or today?

1991-2020.

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Pin this somewhere

I wonder why my post about it got deleted lol. 

[winterwx21]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

The cold modified as we got closer 

 

we done 

Yeah it's something how Thursday went from looking like a significant cold shot to now a fairly mild day. It now looks as if we'll make it up to 40. 

But the warm first week of February that some people were talking about doesn't look likely anymore. Actually looks like a chilly week now. As long as we continue to have cold air in the long range we have a shot. Hopefully a threat will pop up for early February. 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Some of you guys seems to be hung up on the negative departures.  I'm not trying to downplay a below average (temp) winter. Those have become rare around here recently.  But let's keep perspective here.  Our normals are the warmest they've ever been.  So a -3 departure while below normal, isn't frigid.  It's definitely cold, well, bc it's winter.  To our south and west the -5 to -10 departures are definitely cold in regards to a 30 year average from any decade in our past.  Now if it were +3, well that's definitely warm bc our normals are so warm.  I hope you guys understand what I'm getting at.  

Unfortunately that’s how the meteorological community has decided to classify “normal”. In truth, we don’t really know what “normal” is because we’ve only been keeping records for 150 years during a time when our planet has undergone immense changes, from carbonization to urbanization. 

[TheClimateChanger]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the warmer flow from Eastern Canada crossing the Great Lakes kept the Northeast much warmer than areas to our south.
 

 

One thing to note. Even in the places with large departures, most locations are not having Top 10 coldest Januarys. And these values will continue to moderate in the coming days. West Virginia is an exception with most sites currently having Top 10 cold Januarys, but a lot of those stations have significant site/elevation changes - from valley cities to elevated airports, shorter PORs and gaps in the records. That's also been the location with the largest departures relative to normal, as shown on the map. 

Although it does suggest that something else is going on with the position of the anomalies, other than moderation from the Great Lakes. If that was the cause, you would expect relatively warmer anomalies over western Pennsylvania and West Virginia, with the predominant northwest flow off the Lakes. Why would the warming be more significant on the Coastal Plain? It looks more like the relative position of the jet stream, blocking ridges and troughs, have a more significant impact. The relative lack of snow cover along the Coastal Plain relative to inland locations also playing a significant role. Central Park has a mean monthly snow depth of 0.3 inches, while Charleston, West Virginia has had a mean monthly snow depth of 3.4 inches, and has had at least an inch on the ground since the 5th with most days having several inches.

[psv88]

6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

One thing to note. Even in the places with large departures, most locations are not having Top 10 coldest Januarys. And these values will continue to moderate in the coming days. West Virginia is an exception with most sites currently having Top 10 cold Januarys, but a lot of those stations have significant site/elevation changes - from valley cities to elevated airports, shorter PORs and gaps in the records. That's also been the location with the largest departures relative to normal, as shown on the map. 

Although it does suggest that something else is going on with the position of the anomalies, other than moderation from the Great Lakes. If that was the cause, you would expect relatively warmer anomalies over western Pennsylvania and West Virginia, with the predominant northwest flow off the Lakes. Why would the warming be more significant on the Coastal Plain? It looks more like the relative position of the jet stream, blocking ridges and troughs, have a more significant impact. The relative lack of snow cover along the Coastal Plain relative to inland locations also playing a significant role. Central Park has a mean monthly snow depth of 0.3 inches, while Charleston, West Virginia has had a mean monthly snow depth of 3.4 inches, and has had at least an inch on the ground since the 5th with most days having several inches.

People are overthinking this. The core of PV lobe went to our west. The Great Lakes are not modifying -30C 850s. Sure the immediate coast of the lakes would be warmer but not 700 miles east 

[Dark Star]

29 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Unfortunately that’s how the meteorological community has decided to classify “normal”. In truth, we don’t really know what “normal” is because we’ve only been keeping records for 150 years during a time when our planet has undergone immense changes, from carbonization to urbanization. 

150 years seems like a good enough data base.  Except we only use 20 years (or 30 years according to Mgerb) for our averages.  And although we don't have records going back before they were officially recorded, I thought we had a fairly reliable estimates from things such as tree cross sections, sedimentations, ice core sampling?  

[Dark Star]

18 minutes ago, psv88 said:

People are overthinking this. The core of PV lobe went to our west. The Great Lakes are not modifying -30C 850s. Sure the immediate coast of the lakes would be warmer but not 700 miles east 

THANK YOU!!!

[winterwx21]

15 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Idk. I didn't do it. 

Yeah I knew you didn't do it. You're the best. I have an idea who did it, but I'll just leave it at that lol. Not that big of a deal. 

[bluewave]

46 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Although it does suggest that something else is going on with the position of the anomalies, other than moderation from the Great Lakes. If that was the cause, you would expect relatively warmer anomalies over western Pennsylvania and West Virginia, with the predominant northwest flow off the Lakes. Why would the warming be more significant on the Coastal Plain?

The CAA into West Virginia which has been very impressive tracked south of the Great Lakes. So the airmass didn’t travel over the warmer Great Lakes with the much lower ice than normal. Plus Erie which is the closest Lake to them is one of the few with sufficient ice cover. Remember, the Great Lakes warmth is a result of the record warmth in Canada which had their warmest year on record. So it’s a symptom of the overall pattern and not the cause. Same goes for the delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay.

The Northeast being closer to this warmer region to the north is why the cold was muted this month in the Northeast relative to areas to our south. Past instances when West Virginia was so cold in January were significantly colder in the Northeast. This is the first time that parts of Northern Maine are +5 with West Virginia at -10. So this is something new for the Eastern US.

In the old days it didn’t matter that the core of the cold went to our south. That PV lobe would have been far more expansive covering the Northeast and Eastern Canada. So as the climate continues to warm, the geographic footprint of these Arctic Outbreaks will continue to shrink. We saw a version of this smaller sized Arctic outbreak in February 2021 and January 2019. Much smaller areas of Arctic cold focusing into a smaller area than Arctic outbreaks of the past.

 

[Allsnow]

40 minutes ago, psv88 said:

People are overthinking this. The core of PV lobe went to our west. The Great Lakes are not modifying -30C 850s. Sure the immediate coast of the lakes would be warmer but not 700 miles east 

This 

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

Some of you guys seems to be hung up on the negative departures.  I'm not trying to downplay a below average (temp) winter. Those have become rare around here recently.  But let's keep perspective here.  Our normals are the warmest they've ever been.  So a -3 departure while below normal, isn't frigid.  It's definitely cold, well, bc it's winter.  To our south and west the -5 to -10 departures are definitely cold in regards to a 30 year average from any decade in our past.  Now if it were +3, well that's definitely warm bc our normals are so warm.  I hope you guys understand what I'm getting at.  

I personally still like to follow the departures.

I do not like to compare to negative departures of the past as for me, there's nothing I can do about it and it will never affect me in the present. Therefore, for me personally, a negative departure today is still a big deal, the same as it was for me back in the 90s or in the 80s. 

 

[BxEngine]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

I wonder why my post about it got deleted lol. 

Because this is the january weather thread. Why the hell do you think it got deleted?

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Because this is the january weather thread. Why the hell do you think it got deleted?

But other people made similar posts that didn't get deleted. Odd that just 1 of the posts (mine) got singled out, but whatever. I'm not the one that brought up the subject. 

[BxEngine]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

But other people made similar posts that didn't get deleted. Odd that just 1 of the posts got singled out, but whatever. I'm not the one that brought up the subject. 

More than 1 post got deleted. No one was singled out. After being at work for 24 hours i didnt feel like going back and reading through the complete nonsense, so i deleted posts towards the end of the thread, so i could take a break from babysitting here and function as an adult. 

[hooralph]

Forgive me if someone covered this but at CPK

• 30.0 avg temp for January
• -2.1 against average (32.1) going back to 1869, making it the 53 coldest out of 157.
• -4 below average since 1990 (34).  8th coldest since 1990; only the following were colder:
  •  

Also notable - out of that list, we move ahead of 2014 and 2015 when looking at high temperatures. (6th coldest avg high temp since 1990).

We will slide a bit to finish the month, but yes, it's been cold. 

 

 

[winterwx21]

9 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

More than 1 post got deleted. No one was singled out. After being at work for 24 hours i didnt feel like going back and reading through the complete nonsense, so i deleted posts towards the end of the thread, so i could take a break from babysitting here and function as an adult. 

Like I said it's not that big of a deal. A few people commented on how bad that OT is. When I saw that I agreed and commented about it too. Then I noticed that my post was deleted while the others stayed, so that confused me and I mentioned that to Rjay. I see you just deleted Brian's post too. It was just a few short posts, so it's not as if you had a bunch to read through. 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, FPizz said:

and less than 30 miles away it is closer to -6+.  He's lost his marbles.  The lower 48 is having its coldest January in 37 years. But NYC and places NE of there are only -3 it isn't cold.  

Cold departures don’t mean what they used to in such a rapidly warming climate. New Brunswick which has a record back to 1893 is currently at 28.6°. That’s  a -3.1° departure so far against the warmest 1991-2020 climate normals. It would have been a run of the mill cold month during 1961 to 1990 with a departure around -0.4°. The actual temperature is close to January 2018. Having the 30th coldest January average temperature isn’t that big of a deal. But it feels colder relative to how warm the recent winters have been.

 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1977	19.5	0
2	1918	20.2	0
3	1893	21.4	0
4	1912	21.9	0
5	1982	22.2	1
-	1940	22.2	0
6	1970	22.6	0
7	1981	22.7	0
8	1904	22.8	0
9	1994	23.6	2
10	1988	24.0	0
-	1920	24.0	0
11	2004	24.3	0
12	1948	24.4	0
13	1961	25.1	0
14	1945	25.2	0
15	2014	25.5	0
-	1984	25.5	0
16	1971	25.6	0
17	1985	25.9	0
18	1976	26.0	0
19	2003	26.5	0
20	2009	26.7	0
21	1978	26.8	0
22	2011	26.9	0
-	1936	26.9	0
23	1905	27.1	0
24	1925	27.2	0
25	2015	27.4	0
26	1968	27.5	0
27	1957	27.7	0
28	1965	28.1	0
-	1922	28.1	0
-	1895	28.1	0
	1996	28.4	1
29	1969	28.5	0
-	1935	28.5	0
-	1914	28.5	0
30	2025	28.6	5
-	2018	28.6	0

[cleetussnow]

10 minutes ago, hooralph said:

Forgive me if someone covered this but at CPK

• 30.0 avg temp for January
• -2.1 against average (32.1) going back to 1869, making it the 53 coldest out of 157.
• -4 below average since 1990 (34).  8th coldest since 1990; only the following were colder:
  •  

Also notable - out of that list, we move ahead of 2014 and 2015 when looking at high temperatures. (6th coldest avg high temp since 1990).

We will slide a bit to finish the month, but yes, it's been cold. 

 

 

never understood 'its not cold.'  I can tell when its cold without even looking

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

I personally still like to follow the departures.

I do not like to compare to negative departures of the past as for me, there's nothing I can do about it and it will never affect me in the present. Therefore, for me personally, a negative departure today is still a big deal, the same as it was for me back in the 90s or in the 80s. 

 

It's probably even more impressive to have a negative departure nowadays but it's just not as cold. 

[MANDA]

Boy, the latest EURO sure has pulled the plug on the previously forecast warmup for next week.  Will be key where front sets up.  Still some time for it to adjust more northward or southward.  We'll see.

Not going to be much QPF with a flow like that.  Hopefully we can cash in on .25" - .50" over the weekend.  I'm a hard lean toward the .25" at this point.

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

The coldest departures to our sw was 100% from the flow around the block. It had nothing to do with Hudson Bay time do freeze or the Great Lakes 

The flow around the block used to be much colder in the Northeast before Canada started getting so warm. The warmer Hudson Bay and Great Lakes are 100% due to Canada coming off its warmest year on record. Plus the 500 mb blocks are getting stronger and warmer leading to areas further north warming faster than to the south.

 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

never understood 'its not cold.'  I can tell when its cold without even looking

As a stubborn old guy, I first measure the actual temperature.  After that, then I look at the wind and wind chill effect temperature.  for sure, the wind chills were extremely uncomfortable at times this January, but the actual air temperature was more representative of January (based on the past 150 years or so of data).

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures again reached 40° or above in much of the Middle Atlantic region. The mild weather will likely continue through Wednesday before another cold front arrives. The front could be accompanied by some snow flurries. Behind the front, it will turn colder, but the coldest anomalies will occur across Upstate New York and New England.

The cold won't rival that of last week. Although the cold air mass will originate in northern Russia, that region has been experienccing near record and record warmth. As a result, the air mass will not be exceptionally cold when it reaches eastern North America.

The guidance has accelerated the onset of rainfall on Friday. As a result, prospects for a record dry month have decreased. Nevertheless, Poughkeepsie and White Plains could still surpass their January records.

Precipitation amounts through January 27th and January Records:

Islip: 0.37" (Record: 0.51", 1970)
Mount Pocono: 0.51" (Record: 0.61", 1990)
New York City-Central Park: 0.45" (Record: 0.58", 1981)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 0.35" (Record: 0.51", 1981)
Newark: 0.34" (Record: 0.45", 1981)
Philadelphia: 0.39" (Record: 0.45", 1955)
Poughkeepsie: 0.12" (Record: 0.43", 1970)
White Plains: 0.18" (Record: 0.44", 1955)

Out West, Blythe, CA saw its record 300-day streak without measurable precipitation end today.

The AO is now positive and is expected to remain predominantly positive through at least the first week of February. As a result, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City area will be limited. Since 1950, just 2 of 19 (11%) of storms with an AO of +2.000 or above during January 15-February 15 saw 6" or more of snow in New York City. Opportunities for a 6" or above snowstorm could persist for parts of southern New England, including Boston, through the first week of February.   

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around January 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +11.22 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.467 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.3° (3.6° below normal).

 

[Allsnow]

Circles lots of circles 

 

im done 

[kat5hurricane]

8 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Brutal…

 

NYC going to finish below 10 inches this season which will be the 3rd winter in a row. The 4+ streak will definitely go into next winter 

Are we in April already? Wish somebody told me.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, psv88 said:

Unfortunately that’s how the meteorological community has decided to classify “normal”. In truth, we don’t really know what “normal” is because we’ve only been keeping records for 150 years during a time when our planet has undergone immense changes, from carbonization to urbanization. 

things like *normal* and *average* are pseudoscience.

Mark Twain had a thing or ten to say about statistics....