January 2025

[psv88]

21 at home now, was 42 today but yard still has full snow cover. Beautiful day for skiing, kids first time on skis and they did well until my 7 year old crashed into the bunny hill line. All good!

[RU848789]

Didn't see it posted, but the 18Z AIFS has 1/2-3/4" of QPF from midday Friday through about sunrise Saturday with temps in the 40s everywhere south of 84 (and above 32F up to about 90) with temps not crashing towards 32F south of 84 until the precip is over. That's barely even a cold rain. I know it's 5+ days out, but this one is going to need a lot of help to become a threat for anyone south of 84, IMO, especially with the 18Z Euro and 12Z CMC showing similar surface depictions (albeit with the CMC being a bit slower).  The Friday afternoon/evening start time would also likely mean the record dry January wouldn't verify for many locations - as per the models.  

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Didn't see it posted, but the 18Z AIFS has 1/2-3/4" of QPF from midday Friday through about sunrise Saturday with temps in the 40s everywhere south of 84 (and above 32F up to about 90) with temps not crashing towards 32F south of 84 until the precip is over. That's barely even a cold rain. I know it's 5+ days out, but this one is going to need a lot of help to become a threat for anyone south of 84, IMO, especially with the 18Z Euro and 12Z CMC showing similar surface depictions (albeit with the CMC being a bit slower).  The Friday afternoon/evening start time would also likely mean the record dry January wouldn't verify for many locations - as per the models.  

Light snow event on the gfs

[RU848789]

33 minutes ago, psv88 said:

21 at home now, was 42 today but yard still has full snow cover. Beautiful day for skiing, kids first time on skis and they did well until my 7 year old crashed into the bunny hill line. All good!

Was gorgeous today.  We play soccer every Sunday (full 11 on 11 game) morning and it was perfect: temps in the upper 20s with ~2-3" of dry, still powdery snow still on the ground, since it really hadn't been above 32F all week, and no wind.  We had a blast.  And I also got in a couple of rounds of disc golf in the snow on Wednesday and Friday - was chilly, but not uncomfortably cold with a few layers - it's a great way to get a decent workout, while playing a fun game and enjoying the beautiful snowfall.  

[RU848789]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Light snow event on the gfs

GFS has been an outlier, relative to the AIFS/Euro/CMC up through 18Z.  Of course that could change and it kind of just did with the CMC taking all the precip south of our area, such that it's gone by the time temps drop below 32F for our area, which was a surprise.  Looks like we'll need to wait a few model cycles to have confidence in a forecast.  

[Volcanic Winter]

0z is truly one of the most bizarre GFS runs I’ve ever personally watched. You have the thinnest overrunning of all time followed immediately by a drunk clipper, oh then there’s the omega level … Dakota cutter bringing rain to Ellesmere Island. That of course finishes with a perfect coastal nuke for everyone, from the ashes of the cutter that’s now probably plowing into Novaya Zemlya.

 

[bluewave]

Models continuing to back off the colder pattern that they were showing for this week. 

New run

Old run

[snowman19]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models continuing to back off the colder pattern that they were showing for this week. 

New run

Old run

This winter has fit a classic front-loaded Niña winter to a tee. Cold from the end of November through the end of January, then the canonical patterns kicks in by the start of February. Although we have had nowhere near the amount of snow 2010-11 had, we are following that front-loaded Niña winter pattern very closely 

[MJO812]

45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models continuing to back off the colder pattern that they were showing for this week. 

New run

Old run

 

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

This winter has fit a classic front-loaded Niña winter to a tee. Cold from the end of November through the end of January, then the canonical patterns kicks in by the start of February. Although we have had nowhere near the amount of snow 2010-11 had, we are following that front-loaded Niña winter pattern very closely 

The warmup is a transient +EPO

Once it goes back negative you can see the models adjust colder in the 6 to 10 . Plenty

[JustinRP37]

As a skier I would rate this winter so far a C. The temperatures have been good for the most part but the warmer weather during Christmas week and then the rain on MLK weekend iced up a good deal. I would like to see at least Vermont and upstate get more snow but this is a bit concerning. Will be interesting this summer if the dry pattern continues. Hoping to figure out a move in the next two-three years. Maybe to MA or something. Don’t think my wife would ever be on board with Alaska haha.  Haven’t really enjoy Putnam all that much.

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

The warmup is a transient +EPO

Once it goes back negative you can see the models adjust colder in the 6 to 10 . Plenty

We are seeing the classic La Niña progression with the Southeast ridge making a return as we approach February. That -EPO will west based allowing more of a -PNA. So any cooldown showing up days 6-10 will only last a few days before the next warm up arrives beyond the period you mentioned. 

West based -EPO allowing -PNA and Southeast Ridge

 

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are seeing the classic La Niña progression with the Southeast ridge making a return as we approach February. That -EPO will west based allowing more of a -PNA. So any cooldown showing up days 6-10 will only last a few days before the next warm up arrives beyond the period you mentioned. 
 

 

There's a lot of low level cold throughout that eps run though.  It really doesn't look all that warm to me. 

[bluewave]

Just now, Rjay said:

There's a lot of low level cold throughout that eps run though.  It really doesn't look all that warm to me. 

I don’t trust the EPS 2m temperatures as they have been running too cold all winter. Remember that they had that 10 day run of not getting above freezing for NYC in mid-January which never verified. Plus this week has been correcting warmer as we got closer. So probably a back and forth pattern into early February with the warmer departures eventually winning out as the month progresses. 

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, Rjay said:

There's a lot of low level cold throughout that eps run though.  It really doesn't look all that warm to me. 

I personally think this winter is a big win considering our front loaded winter lasted all the way to February which is late. That shortens the hostile environment to just two to three weeks when the shorter wavelengths counter the RNA. 

Also the mjo wave per below weakens in the warmer phases and of course moves East so we should be in the cooler phases by the end of February. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I don’t trust the EPS 2m temperatures as they have been running too cold all winter. Remember that they had that 10 day run of not getting above freezing for NYC in mid-January which never verified. Plus this week has been correcting warmer as we got closer. So probably a back and forth pattern into early February with the warmer departures eventually winning out as the month progresses. 

You think its going to be warm the whole month ? I agree about the brief warmup in early February but not as the month goes on.

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You think its going to be warm the whole month ? I agree about the brief warmup in early February but not as the month goes on.

Yes. My guess is that the month will finish above average for temperatures. We don’t get cold months with a Southeast Ridge. 

[Rjay]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I don’t trust the EPS 2m temperatures as they have been running too cold all winter. Remember that they had that 10 day run of not getting above freezing for NYC in mid-January which never verified. Plus this week has been correcting warmer as we got closer. So probably a back and forth pattern into early February with the warmer departures eventually winning out as the month progresses. 

Fair enough

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yes. My guess is that the month will finish above average for temperatures. We don’t get cold months with a Southeast Ridge. 

Looking at the 500mb pattern I would go at least +2.  There's just been a lot of cold air around this season so I'm hesitant to go any higher than +1. 

[North and West]

As a skier I would rate this winter so far a C. The temperatures have been good for the most part but the warmer weather during Christmas week and then the rain on MLK weekend iced up a good deal. I would like to see at least Vermont and upstate get more snow but this is a bit concerning. Will be interesting this summer if the dry pattern continues. Hoping to figure out a move in the next two-three years. Maybe to MA or something. Don’t think my wife would ever be on board with Alaska haha.  Haven’t really enjoy Putnam all that much.

NH is a tax haven around these parts.


.

[jm1220]

43 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I personally think this winter is a big win considering our front loaded winter lasted all the way to February which is late. That shortens the hostile environment to just two to three weeks when the shorter wavelengths counter the RNA. 

Also the mjo wave per below weakens in the warmer phases and of course moves East so we should be in the cooler phases by the end of February. 

This awesome winter has 8” snow for me so far and less than 6” in Central Park. The cold is noteworthy but only because the last two winters were so warm. I’d give it a C-/D+ so far. If we torch in Feb it becomes D-/F. 

[Allsnow]

36 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Looking at the 500mb pattern I would go at least +2.  There's just been a lot of cold air around this season so I'm hesitant to go any higher than +1. 

Yeah I don’t see the torch Bluewave is seeing this month. 

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Looking at the 500mb pattern I would go at least +2.  There's just been a lot of cold air around this season so I'm hesitant to go any higher than +1. 

The cold has been more focused in other regions as the best we have been able to do for a 7 station average this month has only been -2.6°. It’s just remarkable how the coldest departures have been missing the Northeast since the 15-16 super El Niño. Even with the Southeast Ridge completely suppressed in January. So while I am not sure of the exact departure for February yet, it’s probably a good bet that the 7 station average will be warmer than the departures were in December and January as the Southeast Ridge returns.

EWR..-2.7°

NYC...-3.8°

LGA….-3.3°

JFK…..-1.1°

HPN….-2.6°

BDR….-2.3°

ISP…...-2.6°

AVG.…-2.6°

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The cold has been more focused in other regions as the best we have been able to do for a 7 station average this month has only been -2.6°. It’s just remarkable how the coldest departures have been missing the Northeast since the 15-16 super El Niño. Even with the Southeast Ridge completely suppressed in January. So while I am not sure of the exact departure for February yet, it’s probably a good bet that the 7 station average will be warmer than the departures were in December and January as the Southeast Ridge returns.

EWR..-2.7°

NYC...-3.8°

LGA….-3.3°

JFK…..-1.1°

HPN….-2.6°

BDR….-2.3°

ISP…...-2.6°

AVG.…-2.6°

-3.8 for January isn’t cold? That’s pretty legit 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

This awesome winter has 8” snow for me so far and less than 6” in Central Park. The cold is noteworthy but only because the last two winters were so warm. I’d give it a C-/D+ so far. If we torch in Feb it becomes D-/F. 

I'm comparing typical La Nina conditions versus what we had. Usually in a La Nina we torch by mid/late January, we had a couple extra weeks. 

Yes snowfall is subpar and in fact we had more snow in a more typical La Nina (17/18 well above average snowfall) than this colder one. The drought conditions hurt us and the snowfall department so far.

[SACRUS]

 

33 / 11 with 3 days of above normal ahead of us with temps near 50 by Wed.  A sharp colder return briefly on Thu.   Feb opens up with cold nearby but focused north and west of the area.  Overall above warmer than normal (we are on the cusp of the ridging and colder nearby) also looking like  1- 3 inches of LE the first week of the month.

 

Quite the sunny day on tap

 

 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

-3.8 for January isn’t cold? That’s pretty legit 

-2.6° is the average. The NYC site has been consistently running too cold compared to the other stations across the area. So the increased tree growth is probably artificially suppressing the temperatures there during the day in the winter like during the warm season.

[Allsnow]

Just now, bluewave said:

-2.6° is the average. The NYC site has been consistently running too cold compared to the other stations across the area. So the increased tree growth is probably artificially suppressing the temperatures there.

The trees still have leaves on them in NYC? 

[EastonSN+]

Also if we look to 2010-2011 as another "front loaded" La Nina, look how many snow events we had starting February 1st: 

February 1-2. 1 to 5 inches.

February 21. 4 to 8 inches.

March 24-25. 1 to 3 inches.

So no, winter did not end after January. It just felt that way because that was the end of the train of KU events.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 69 (1974)
NYC: 69 (1916)
LGA: 66 (1974)
JFK: 65 (1974)


Lows:

EWR: -2 (1994)
NYC: -1 (1927)
LGA: 0 (1994)
JFK: 2 (1994)

Historical:

 

1772 - The "Washington and Jefferson Snowstorm" occurred. George Washington reported three feet of snow at Mount Vernon, and Thomas Jefferson recorded about three feet at Monticello. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

 

1922: On this date through the 29th, a significant snowstorm struck the East Coast from South Carolina to southeastern Massachusetts. Washington, DC, reported 28 inches of snow. The heavy snow on the Knickerbocker Theater's flat roof put a significant strain on the structure. On the evening of the 28th,  during a showing of the silent comedy "Get-Rich-Quick Wallingford," the building collapsed, killing 98 people and injuring 130 others. 

1966 - Oswego, NY, was in the midst of a five day lake effect storm which left the town buried under 102 inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

1967 - Residents of Chicago, IL, began to dig out from a storm which produced 23 inches of snow in 29 hours. The snow paralyzed the city and suburbs for days, and business losses were enormous. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A powerful storm moving into the western U.S. produced 13 inches of snow at Daggett Pass NV, and 16 inches in the Cascade Mountains of Oregon. Winds gusted to 63 mph at Reno NV, and wind gusts in Oregon exceeded 80 mph. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - The nation got a breather from winter storms, however, cold arctic air settled into the southeastern U.S. Hollywood FL reported a record low reading of 39 degrees. (National Weather Summary)

1989 - The last half of January was bitterly cold over most of Alaska. Nearly thirty stations established all-time record low temperatures. On this date Tanana reported a low of -76 degrees. Daily highs of -66 degrees were reported at Chandalar Lake on the 22nd, and at Ambler on the 26th. (The Weather Channel)

 

1989: Bitter cold air gripped most of Alaska during January 1989. Tanana, near Fairbanks, saw a low temperature of 76 degrees below zero on this day. The high for the day was 60 degrees below zero. With an average temperature of 68 degrees below zero, Tanana saw an average temperature of nearly sixty degrees below normal. McGrath, Alaska, recorded a wind chill of -100°F. This is the lowest wind chill ever observed in the U.S. at a populated location. You can read more about this event from the Alaska Dispatch 

1989 - Low pressure in north central Alaska continued to direct air across northern Siberia and the edges of the Arctic Circle into the state. The temperature at Fairbanks remained colder than 40 degrees below zero for the eighth day in a row. Lows of 68 below at Galena, 74 below at McGrath, and 76 below at Tanana, were new records for the date. Wind chill readings were colder than 100 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary)

1990 - Another in a series of cold fronts brought high winds to the northwestern U.S., and more heavy snow to some of the higher elevations. The series of vigorous cold fronts crossing the area between the 23rd and the 27th of the month produced up to 60 inches of snow in the Cascade Mountains of Washington State. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005 - Month-to-date snowfall at Boston Logan International Airport totaled 43.1 inches, making January the snowiest month on record.

[Allsnow]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Also if we look to 2010-2011 as another "front loaded" La Nina, look how many snow events we had starting February 1st: 

February 1-2. 1 to 5 inches.

February 21. 4 to 8 inches.

March 24-25. 1 to 3 inches.

So no, winter did not end after January. It just felt that way because that was the end of the train of KU events.

Winter ended after the big Chicago blizzard  to start February