January 2025

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Boston is more than double the distance than Philly is

It's about the same from here, but that is correct for NYC.

[the_other_guy]

You guys keep talking about warm and snowless the rest of the way while clinging to historical Nina data that hasnt played out well this season thus far.

A simple 10 day forecast doesnt show warmth. 

If I was putting money on DraftKings for February I would go with a -1 to +1 and BN snow…but not a gooseegg.

Lot’s of narratives in this forum (some from informed posters) that havent lined up with what is outside the window thus far

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Did those years also have strong blocking in the first half of the season? 

Very strong Pacific blocking both years. But as we have seen this year, storm tracks have been more important than 500 mb teleconnections and temperatures for snow. We can’t get to average snowfall anymore without big KU events. The cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream tracks since 18-19 aren’t enough to get us over 20” even with marginally below average average temperatures this winter so far.

Any winter month near or under 40° is cold enough for snow. But it becomes harder to get a big March once the averages get above 42° to 43° which is common for March as the climate warms.

So while we had more cold and blocking than the 2011-2012 La Niña, that year was snowier for several spots near the coast through the end of January. So the storm tracks were even more hostile for snow in some spots around the region than 2011-2012. 
 

Snowfall by January 31st

EWR…2025….7.2”…..2012….8.5”

NYC….2025….5.8”…..2012….7.2”

BDR…..2025….5.4”…..2012…11.4”

ISP…….2025….4.8”…..2012….4..1”….close 
 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Up to 45 here and losing larger sections of the snow covr

[MANDA]

Down to about 85% snow coverage here.  South facing locations pretty much down to bare ground.  Full coverage elsewhere with an average depth of 2.5".

This would be rainfall but man I'm rooting for it.  Need to wash this salt away.

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Interesting correlations here.  So when NYC gets 4" of snow, PHL gets 4" 49% of the time but BOS gets it 64% of the time.  When BOS gets 4 inches of snow, NYC gets it 42% of the time but PHL only 26% of the time.  When PHL gets 4" of snow NYC gets it 67% of the time but BOS also gets it 54% of the time.  This shows that all three have somewhat distinct climates from each other.  If we compare PHL to BWI and DCA, I think we'll see a stronger correlation there than with PHL and NYC.

You are likely seeing the impact of Miller B storms. Those storms typically favor areas where they develop and those to the north.

[donsutherland1]

27 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

You guys keep talking about warm and snowless the rest of the way while clinging to historical Nina data that hasnt played out well this season thus far.

A simple 10 day forecast doesnt show warmth. 

If I was putting money on DraftKings for February I would go with a -1 to +1 and BN snow…but not a gooseegg.

Lot’s of narratives in this forum (some from informed posters) that havent lined up with what is outside the window thus far

Just so there's no confusion with my posts regarding 6"+ snowstorms, the low probability of such storms though mid-February does not preclude smaller events.

[LoboLeader1]

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Up to 45 here and losing larger sections of the snow covr

41 here currently, late version of January thaw is now in progress.

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Just so there's no confusion with my posts regarding 6"+ snowstorms, the low probability of such storms though mid-February does not preclude smaller events.

for the upcoming week, Don, does it look like the storm will begin on Friday instead of Saturday? In this case, the record driest January record may not be set.

 

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Just so there's no confusion with my posts regarding 6"+ snowstorms, the low probability of such storms though mid-February does not preclude smaller events.

1-3 inch storms can happen in any kind of pattern.

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Down to about 85% snow coverage here.  South facing locations pretty much down to bare ground.  Full coverage elsewhere with an average depth of 2.5".

This would be rainfall but man I'm rooting for it.  Need to wash this salt away.

 

as long as it happens after January 31st so the new January record can be set, sure.

 

[LibertyBell]

53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very strong Pacific blocking both years. But as we have seen this year, storm tracks have been more important than 500 mb teleconnections and temperatures for snow. We can’t get to average snowfall anymore without big KU events. The cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream tracks since 18-19 aren’t enough to get us over 20” even with marginally below average average temperatures this winter so far.

Any winter month near or under 40° is cold enough for snow. But it becomes harder to get a big March once the averages get above 42° to 43° which is common for March as the climate warms.

So while we had more cold and blocking than the 2011-2012 La Niña, that year was snowier for several spots near the coast through the end of January. So the storm tracks were even more hostile for snow in some spots around the region than 2011-2012. 
 

Snowfall by January 31st

EWR…2025….7.2”…..2012….8.5”

NYC….2025….5.8”…..2012….7.2”

BDR…..2025….5.4”…..2012…11.4”

ISP…….2025….4.8”…..2012….4..1”….close 
 

 

To be fair, a lot of the differences between this season and 2011-12 can be shaved off by removing the October rare snow event (which is why ISP is close.)

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

It's about the same from here, but that is correct for NYC.

it's why Suffolk County is closer to a coastal New England type of climate.

 

[sussexcountyobs]

Starting to look like some wintry weather coming in for next weekend.

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

To be fair, a lot of the differences between this season and 2011-12 can be shaved off by removing the October rare snow event (which is why ISP is close.)

 

Even if you remove the late October event, parts of the area had a better January snowstorm in 2012 than this year. Plus JFK had the same monthly low in 2012 than this month so far. Just goes to show how hostile the storm tracks have become for snow with even below average January temperatures. 
 

Monthly Data for January 2012 for CT COASTAL Climate Division
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

WESTPORT 2.5 ENE	CoCoRaHS	8.7
NEW HAVEN 1.7 NW	CoCoRaHS	8.4
TRUMBULL	COOP	7.5
IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	7.4
GROTON	COOP	7.0
MILFORD 2.9 ESE	CoCoRaHS	7.0

 

Monthly Data for January 2012 for NY COASTAL Climate Division
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	5.6
RIVERHEAD 1.3 SSE	CoCoRaHS	5.6
SHOREHAM 1.8 SSE	CoCoRaHS	5.5
BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	5.0
DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	5.0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	13	6
2024	18	0
2023	29	0
2022	9	0
2021	15	0
2020	19	0
2019	3	0
2018	4	0
2017	13	0
2016	12	0
2015	8	0
2014	3	0
2013	12	0
2012	13	0

 

 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even if you remove the late October event, parts of the area had a better January snowstorm in 2012 than this year. Plus JFK had the same monthly low in 2012 than this month so far. Just goes to show how hostile the storm tracks have become for snow with even below average January temperatures. 
 

Monthly Data for January 2012 for CT COASTAL Climate Division
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

WESTPORT 2.5 ENE	CoCoRaHS	8.7
NEW HAVEN 1.7 NW	CoCoRaHS	8.4
TRUMBULL	COOP	7.5
IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	7.4
GROTON	COOP	7.0
MILFORD 2.9 ESE	CoCoRaHS	7.0

 

Monthly Data for January 2012 for NY COASTAL Climate Division
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	5.6
RIVERHEAD 1.3 SSE	CoCoRaHS	5.6
SHOREHAM 1.8 SSE	CoCoRaHS	5.5
BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	5.0
DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	5.0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	13	6
2024	18	0
2023	29	0
2022	9	0
2021	15	0
2020	19	0
2019	3	0
2018	4	0
2017	13	0
2016	12	0
2015	8	0
2014	3	0
2013	12	0
2012	13	0

 

 

How close is the total snowfall comparison between this year and 2011-12, Chris? I know JFK had about 1.5" in October and they also had a minor event in March if I remember correctly, 2-4"?

 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even if you remove the late October event, parts of the area had a better January snowstorm in 2012 than this year. Plus JFK had the same monthly low in 2012 than this month so far. Just goes to show how hostile the storm tracks have become for snow with even below average January temperatures. 
 

Monthly Data for January 2012 for CT COASTAL Climate Division
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

WESTPORT 2.5 ENE	CoCoRaHS	8.7
NEW HAVEN 1.7 NW	CoCoRaHS	8.4
TRUMBULL	COOP	7.5
IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	7.4
GROTON	COOP	7.0
MILFORD 2.9 ESE	CoCoRaHS	7.0

 

Monthly Data for January 2012 for NY COASTAL Climate Division
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	5.6
RIVERHEAD 1.3 SSE	CoCoRaHS	5.6
SHOREHAM 1.8 SSE	CoCoRaHS	5.5
BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	5.0
DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	5.0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	13	6
2024	18	0
2023	29	0
2022	9	0
2021	15	0
2020	19	0
2019	3	0
2018	4	0
2017	13	0
2016	12	0
2015	8	0
2014	3	0
2013	12	0
2012	13	0

 

 

wow January 2023 really stands out... 29 was the low for the entire winter or just for January?

 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How close is the total snowfall comparison between this year and 2011-12, Chris? I know JFK had about 1.5" in October and they also had a minor event in March if I remember correctly, 2-4"?

 

JFK had 3.1” by 1-26-12 at an average temperature of 39.5°. This year JFK has 5.5” with a 35.8” average. So the extra amount of cold wasn’t able to translate into significantly more snow due to how hostile the storm tracks have been. 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

JFK had 3.1” by 1-26-12 at an average temperature of 39.5°. This year JFK has 5.5” with a 35.8” average. So the extra amount of cold wasn’t able to translate into significantly more snow due to how hostile the storm tracks have been. 

 

what did JFK end with that season and how much did they have in March, Chris?

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

what did JFK end with that season and how much did they have in March, Chris?

JFK is in the same boat as all the other local stations. None of the models are showing a KU storm track anytime soon. So a continuation of the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Stream would signal a seasonal total under 20”. It’s still uncertain if JFK like our other stations can see another small or moderate event putting them over 10” on the season. 

[donsutherland1]

The Middle Atlantic region saw temperatures rise into the 40s today. New York City had a high of 43°. Philadelphia had a high of 42°. It was even warmer in Washington, DC where the mercury topped out at 51°.

Tomorrow will be another mild day, but likely not as mild as today was. The mild weather will likely continue through Wednesday before another cold front arrives. The front could be accompanied by some snow flurries. Behind the front, it will turn colder, but the coldest anomalies will occur across Upstate New York and New England.

The cold won't rival that of last week. Although the cold air mass will originate in northern Russia, that region has been experienccing near record and record warmth. As a result, the air mass will not be exceptionally cold when it reaches eastern North America.

With little or no precipitation expected through the remainder of January, several cities could approach or set records for their driest January on record.

Precipitation amounts through January 26th and January Records:

Islip: 0.37" (Record: 0.51", 1970)
Mount Pocono: 0.51" (Record: 0.61", 1990)
New York City-Central Park: 0.45" (Record: 0.58", 1981)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 0.35" (Record: 0.51", 1981)
Newark: 0.34" (Record: 0.45", 1981)
Philadelphia: 0.39" (Record: 0.45", 1955)
Poughkeepsie: 0.12" (Record: 0.43", 1970)
White Plains: 0.18" (Record: 0.44", 1955)

The AO is now positive and is expected to remain predominantly positive through at least the first week of February. As a result, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City area will be limited. Since 1950, just 2 of 19 (11%) of storms with an AO of +2.000 or above during January 15-February 15 saw 6" or more of snow in New York City. Opportunities for a 6" or above snowstorm could persist for parts of southern New England, including Boston, through the first week of February.   

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +4.48 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.045 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.0° (3.9° below normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

On 1/19/2025 at 8:00 AM, donsutherland1 said:

The week ahead:

Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC will likely see their coldest 7-day period since January 3-9, 2018.

The final outcome:

It was broadly somewhat warmer than had been expected on the guidance. It was also bone dry.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

for the upcoming week, Don, does it look like the storm will begin on Friday instead of Saturday? In this case, the record driest January record may not be set.

 

It will be a close call. It depends on how much precipitation falls before midnight.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It will be a close call. It depends on how much precipitation falls before midnight.

what's causing the storm to speed up, Don-- I thought it wouldn't reach the east coast before the weekend?

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

JFK is in the same boat as all the other local stations. None of the models are showing a KU storm track anytime soon. So a continuation of the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Stream would signal a seasonal total under 20”. It’s still uncertain if JFK like our other stations can see another small or moderate event putting them over 10” on the season. 

I think there's a possibility that JFK or one of the other airports gets a 4" storm while NYC does not.

[coastalplainsnowman]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it's why Suffolk County is closer to a coastal New England type of climate.

 

I think that's the case for the northern half of Suffolk, but I feel like the southern half behaves pretty much the same for the length of the island. @NorthShoreWxcould definitely weigh in on this.

[donsutherland1]

51 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what's causing the storm to speed up, Don-- I thought it wouldn't reach the east coast before the weekend?

The models are getting a better idea rather than any big changes in the pattern.

[TheClimateChanger]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

earthquakes?

That’s the current steam flow map. I didn’t realize how dry it’s been in the Pacific Northwest, as well. Lots of streams at record low flow for today’s date. Isn’t it usually wet up there during La Niñas?

[the_other_guy]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Just so there's no confusion with my posts regarding 6"+ snowstorms, the low probability of such storms though mid-February does not preclude smaller events.

never talking about you Don

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

never talking about you Don

Thanks. I just wanted to be sure that I wasn't a source of providing confusing information.