January 2025

[SnoSki14]

Some classic GFS snow porn

That's a pretty textbook snowstorm pattern showing up. We'd likely have more chances after the 8-10th too. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

doubt we'd be looking at 10-1 ratios here....it's mighty cold

 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Some classic GFS snow porn

That's a pretty textbook snowstorm pattern showing up. We'd likely have more chances after the 8-10th too. 

It stays pretty cold after the storm

[MJO812]

Another cold and snowy GFS run 

[jm1220]

Wondering if we'd actually want a stronger 1/6 storm to cause enough confluence for 1/8-9. Still way out in the future of course but we all know what too much amplification without some source of confluence means. 

[MJO812]

Gefs likes January 6 more than the op. Maybe a small storm and then a much bigger one ?

[psv88]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

People said that we will not see huge snowstorms again because the climate is changing.  Bullshit.

A good pattern will yield good results.

Name one person who has said this. Just one. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Name one person who has said this. Just one. 

Forky ( yes I know he's trolling ) The winter forecast might bust yet again for this winter if we get into a favorable pattern .

[psv88]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Forky ( yes I know he's trolling ) . 

He never said that. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

He never said that. 

Umm okay 

 

[psv88]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Umm okay 

 

Bump the post then. If not then stop making shit up. Carry on. 

[NEG NAO]

Until the Canadian and Euro and ensembles agree with the GFS multiple runs in a row on a snowstorm threat in January can't take the GFS seriously and who wants to be in the GFS bullseye this far out ? Sorry have to wait till we get into the 5-7 day range IMO to make a forecast...

[NEG NAO]

0Z Euro Jan 6th storm is strong and cuts west of us with lack strong HP in southeast Canada - cold blast follows as another storm is developing out west - then a gulf low develops

[mitchnick]

Euro

[NEG NAO]

Then the gulf low rounds the corner up the east coast so now there is some agreement with the GFS OP and Euro OP BUT over 11 days out !

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

Then the gulf low rounds the corner up the east coast so now there is some agreement with the GFS OP and Euro OP BUT over 11 days out !

Temps in the low to mid teens during it!

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Temps in the low to mid teens during it!

whens the last time thats happened in the NYC metro in a MECS or HECS ? IMO I would wait till the first of the new year to make a storm thread if the guidance is still showing a chance of a storm........

 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

whens the last time thats happened in the NYC metro in a MECS or HECS ? IMO I would wait till the first of the new year to make a storm thread if the guidance is still showing a chance of a storm........

 

Seems like the models aren't certain which short wave to key on, so probably plenty of time and stress before we/models know.

[Nibor]

Jfc this is going to be a social media shit storm. 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

Jfc this is going to be a social media shit storm. 

11 days out too ! this is pure entertainment till we get into a reasonable range within 7 days at least

[jm1220]

I'd say the 1/8-9 timeframe is a higher potential period but obviously way too early. And probably not a coincidence that the Euro strengthened the prior storm and has it as a cutter/SWFE but lays down confluence for the one behind it to take a HECS track. I'd gladly sacrifice storm #1 if it works out that way. 

[snowman19]

12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Then the gulf low rounds the corner up the east coast so now there is some agreement with the GFS OP and Euro OP BUT over 11 days out !

I agree with you. Not even worth discussing the details of operational runs 11+ days out. It’s all going to change, hugely. Once past day 10, that’s not even the op Euro still, it’s the Euro control run that they integrated into it past 240 hours. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

7 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Jfc this is going to be a social media shit storm. 

Twitter already said islip is getting 17 feet 

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Twitter already said islip is getting 17 feet 

Based off the 6z GFS that hasn’t come out that’s an underestimate. 

[mitchnick]

More before and after, but at this range, that's a nice signal on Eps for 24hr snowfall imho..

[gravitylover]

31 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Jfc this is going to be a social media shit storm. 

It already is. 

[SI Mailman]

1/8-1/9 is around the anniversary of the blizzard of ‘96…

[David-LI]

every1 really excited for a storm 7 days away?

[RU848789]

Buckle up folks, social media is about to go wild, but as amazing as this pattern looks, we all know that 11-day forecasts are highly uncertain and there are things that could go wrong to wreck the virtual snow we're looking at now.  As others have said, I'll be very interested, but I'm not going to start getting really excited about anything until I see some general consensus within 6-7 days, i.e., the timeframe when numerical weather prediction, which is inherently chaotic, starts to become more certain - that's why the NWS, who knows a thing or two about forecasting, doesn't issue forecasts beyond 7 days.  

[SnoSki14]

The 6th and 10-11th are the two main opportunities. The 6th looks very SWFE-ish. 

0z GFS was an outlier, 06 GFS brought it back. With such a strong blocking pattern, it could trend towards a miller B and further south.