January 2025

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even though this La Niña was later to get going, the La Niña atmospheric response became very strong during October into November as per the CP OLR readings. But since it was a mismatch year, we got the +PNA from December into January. This has happened many times in the past also. These occurrences were also accompanied by some areas experiencing the coldest winter readings in mid to late January like we just did. Those other La Ninas also saw the Southeast Ridge and departures rebound for February.

The Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet influence has been very strong this winter even by La Niña standards. Several locations actually had more snowfall by this time in the 2011-2012 La Niña. So even though spots like the CT Shoreline have had less snow so far than 2011-2012, this year was significantly colder. So this shows us that the La Niña can also manifest in a way that results in hostile storm tracks for snow even when it’s more than cold enough to snow.  

Pacific Jet actually less hostile for snow at some spots here in Southern CT back in 2011-2022 through the end of January like Bridgeport to New Haven.

 

Data for October 1, 2011 through January 26, 2012
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

TRUMBULL	COOP	11.5
IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	11.4
NEW HAVEN 1.7 NW	CoCoRaHS	11.2
WESTPORT 2.5 ENE	CoCoRaHS	8.7
GROTON	COOP	8.5
MILFORD 2.9 ESE	CoCoRaHS	7.0

 

 

Data for October 1, 2024 through January 26, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

SHELTON 1.3 W	CoCoRaHS	10.5
NEW CANAAN 3.8 N	CoCoRaHS	10.5
NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE	CoCoRaHS	9.9
STAMFORD 1.0 S	CoCoRaHS	8.2
NORWALK 2.9 NNW	CoCoRaHS	8.1
NORTHFORD 0.8 SW	CoCoRaHS	5.5
IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	5.4
GUILFORD	COOP	5.2
DARIEN 2.4 NW	CoCoRaHS	5.2
STRATFORD 0.2 ESE	CoCoRaHS	5.0
KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE	CoCoRaHS	4.4
MADISON CENTER 1.3 N	CoCoRaHS	3.9
GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW	CoCoRaHS	3.9
NORWALK 1.4 ENE	CoCoRaHS	3.0

 

 

 

I don't know why but I feel like it's a victory when the Mid-Atlantic and the South do great snowfall wise even when we don't (seems to be happening a more lately since 2018). Also the colder temperatures, longer into the season, has helped the ski resorts make snow which is a definite positive. 

So yes a negative snowfall wise but a positive temperature wise, unless one likes warmer weather, which I had must admit I love warm weather when it's not snowing LOL.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

I mean there's only a handful of big snow storms, if you're talking 12 plus, in the history of Central Park for March. So it was never in history a large snowfall month.

That being said there are plenty of snowfall events for Central Park in March and even April. 

I mentioned this before, however March snowfall tends to be Decadal, which yes does argue against snowfall this decade, similar to 2000 through 2010 where it never ever snowed in March or very rarely. Opposed to the 1990s or the 2010s where it snowed a lot in March. So there's a different reason for less snowfall. 

That being said is somebody going to go into any December and say nope no snowfall can't happen? If nobody does that, why do they do that with March? 

All I'm saying is there's no reason to say there's no way or it's a pipe dream that winter will return. Unless somebody has irrefutable evidence to this effect, I cannot see any reason to believe this especially given shorter wavelengths and the mjos progression.

 

Even before Central Park's records began in 1869, big March and April snowstorms were not common events for NYC.

April 2-3, 1825: About one foot fell in the City

April 12, 1841: 8" on the streets of New York City; 1-2 feet around the City

March 16-17, 1843: 18" in New York City

[TheClimateChanger]

On 1/21/2025 at 11:57 AM, snowman19 said:

The drought from the fall never stopped. We are still officially in a major drought. You’re just not noticing it because it’s the dead of winter 

Someone should do a little fact checking on these "drought monitors." If we look at the outlook released on December 31, 2024, we see they were calling for marked improvement to the drought situation across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and New England, based on an expected active La Nina pattern with copious rainfall. This didn't actually happen. In fact, most locations are on track for one of the driest Januarys on record. Yet, the drought miraculously improved!

"The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command."

[TheClimateChanger]

5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Someone should do a little fact checking on these "drought monitors." If we look at the outlook released on December 31, 2024, we see they were calling for marked improvement to the drought situation across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and New England, based on an expected active La Nina pattern with copious rainfall. This didn't actually happen. In fact, most locations are on track for one of the driest Januarys on record. Yet, the drought miraculously improved!

"The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command."

Let's take a look at some of the precipitation totals in the areas of drought improvement.

Wheeling, West Virginia

Fort Wayne, Indiana

Toledo, Ohio

Zanesville, Ohio

Peoria, Illinois

Williamsport, Pennsylvania

Albany, New York

[Allsnow]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even though this La Niña was later to get going, the La Niña atmospheric response became very strong during October into November as per the CP OLR readings. But since it was a mismatch year, we got the +PNA from December into January. This has happened many times in the past also. These occurrences were also accompanied by some areas experiencing the coldest winter readings in mid to late January like we just did. Those other La Ninas also saw the Southeast Ridge and departures rebound for February.

The Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet influence has been very strong this winter even by La Niña standards. Several locations actually had more snowfall by this time in the 2011-2012 La Niña. So even though spots like the CT Shoreline have had less snow so far than 2011-2012, this year was significantly colder. So this shows us that the La Niña can also manifest in a way that results in hostile storm tracks for snow even when it’s more than cold enough to snow.  

Pacific Jet actually less hostile for snow at some spots here in Southern CT back in 2011-2022 through the end of January like Bridgeport to New Haven.

 

Data for October 1, 2011 through January 26, 2012
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

TRUMBULL	COOP	11.5
IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	11.4
NEW HAVEN 1.7 NW	CoCoRaHS	11.2
WESTPORT 2.5 ENE	CoCoRaHS	8.7
GROTON	COOP	8.5
MILFORD 2.9 ESE	CoCoRaHS	7.0

 

 

Data for October 1, 2024 through January 26, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

SHELTON 1.3 W	CoCoRaHS	10.5
NEW CANAAN 3.8 N	CoCoRaHS	10.5
NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE	CoCoRaHS	9.9
STAMFORD 1.0 S	CoCoRaHS	8.2
NORWALK 2.9 NNW	CoCoRaHS	8.1
NORTHFORD 0.8 SW	CoCoRaHS	5.5
IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	5.4
GUILFORD	COOP	5.2
DARIEN 2.4 NW	CoCoRaHS	5.2
STRATFORD 0.2 ESE	CoCoRaHS	5.0
KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE	CoCoRaHS	4.4
MADISON CENTER 1.3 N	CoCoRaHS	3.9
GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW	CoCoRaHS	3.9
NORWALK 1.4 ENE	CoCoRaHS	3.0

 

 

 

So warm and snowless the rest of the way? 

[TheClimateChanger]

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

So warm and snowless the rest of the way? 

All I can say about the snowfall is that it doesn’t appear like any KU BM snowstorms are on the near horizon. So probably a continuation of the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks which have dominated since 18-19. The prerequisite for a 20s snowfall season in NYC since 93-94 has been KU BM events where somebody from EWR to Eastern LI records 10” to 12”+ in a single event. So my guess is that NYC will finish this season with under 20” of snow. The one unknown at this point before the season ends is if NYC can finish over 10” with a few smaller events of maybe even a moderate one. 

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All I can say about the snowfall is that it doesn’t appear like any KU BM snowstorms are on the near horizon. So probably a continuation of the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks which have dominated since 18-19. The prerequisite for a 20s snowfall season in NYC since 93-94 has been KU BM events where somebody from EWR to Eastern LI records 10” to 12”+ in a single event. So my guess is that NYC will finish this season with under 20” of snow. The one unknown at this point before the season ends is if NYC can finish over 10” with a few smaller events of maybe even a moderate one. 

Agreed 

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Actually, when Philadelphia picks up 4" or more snow, New York City sees 4" or more snow two-thirds of the time.

it seems like ever since 2009-10, they are much more with Baltimore and DC in the snowfall department than they are with us.  The same was the case in the 80s, when storms like February 1989 affected them much more than they did us.  They have a more inland midatlantic based climate.  I still argue for NYC not being part of either the midatlantic or new england.  Their summers are also much more like the midatlantic (much hotter than ours).

Other winters in which they were much more like the midatlantic than us include 1993-94, 2009-10, 2010-11.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All I can say about the snowfall is that it doesn’t appear like any KU BM snowstorms are on the near horizon. So probably a continuation of the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks which have dominated since 18-19. The prerequisite for a 20s snowfall season in NYC since 93-94 has been KU BM events where somebody from EWR to Eastern LI records 10” to 12”+ in a single event. So my guess is that NYC will finish this season with under 20” of snow. The one unknown at this point before the season ends is if NYC can finish over 10” with a few smaller events of maybe even a moderate one. 

we can get near 20" if we get a March 2009 style moderate event.

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

earthquakes?

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

So warm and snowless the rest of the way? 

how about warm and an occasional snow event a la February 2008?

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Let's take a look at some of the precipitation totals in the areas of drought improvement.

Wheeling, West Virginia

Fort Wayne, Indiana

Toledo, Ohio

Zanesville, Ohio

Peoria, Illinois

Williamsport, Pennsylvania

Albany, New York

I've never believed drought monitors, they are unscientific to an extreme degree.

This is the driest it's been here since 2002.

[LibertyBell]

51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even though this La Niña was later to get going, the La Niña atmospheric response became very strong during October into November as per the CP OLR readings. But since it was a mismatch year, we got the +PNA from December into January. This has happened many times in the past also. These occurrences were also accompanied by some areas experiencing the coldest winter readings in mid to late January like we just did. Those other La Ninas also saw the Southeast Ridge and departures rebound for February.

The Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet influence has been very strong this winter even by La Niña standards. Several locations actually had more snowfall by this time in the 2011-2012 La Niña. So even though spots like the CT Shoreline have had less snow so far than 2011-2012, this year was significantly colder. So this shows us that the La Niña can also manifest in a way that results in hostile storm tracks for snow even when it’s more than cold enough to snow.  

Pacific Jet actually less hostile for snow at some spots here in Southern CT back in 2011-2022 through the end of January like Bridgeport to New Haven.

 

Data for October 1, 2011 through January 26, 2012
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

TRUMBULL	COOP	11.5
IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	11.4
NEW HAVEN 1.7 NW	CoCoRaHS	11.2
WESTPORT 2.5 ENE	CoCoRaHS	8.7
GROTON	COOP	8.5
MILFORD 2.9 ESE	CoCoRaHS	7.0

 

 

Data for October 1, 2024 through January 26, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

SHELTON 1.3 W	CoCoRaHS	10.5
NEW CANAAN 3.8 N	CoCoRaHS	10.5
NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE	CoCoRaHS	9.9
STAMFORD 1.0 S	CoCoRaHS	8.2
NORWALK 2.9 NNW	CoCoRaHS	8.1
NORTHFORD 0.8 SW	CoCoRaHS	5.5
IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	5.4
GUILFORD	COOP	5.2
DARIEN 2.4 NW	CoCoRaHS	5.2
STRATFORD 0.2 ESE	CoCoRaHS	5.0
KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE	CoCoRaHS	4.4
MADISON CENTER 1.3 N	CoCoRaHS	3.9
GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW	CoCoRaHS	3.9
NORWALK 1.4 ENE	CoCoRaHS	3.0

 

 

 

Chris, are these mismatch years much more likely when a la nina comes after an el nino? Maybe thats why these years are much more snowy than other la ninas?

 

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All I can say about the snowfall is that it doesn’t appear like any KU BM snowstorms are on the near horizon. So probably a continuation of the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks which have dominated since 18-19. The prerequisite for a 20s snowfall season in NYC since 93-94 has been KU BM events where somebody from EWR to Eastern LI records 10” to 12”+ in a single event. So my guess is that NYC will finish this season with under 20” of snow. The one unknown at this point before the season ends is if NYC can finish over 10” with a few smaller events of maybe even a moderate one. 

Yeah a few smaller events or a moderate one would be great and match what we've had so far. Would still consider a big win and not a "winter is over" scenario.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

we can get near 20" if we get a March 2009 style moderate event.

08-09 was a much snowier winter through the end of January than this year was with 15.0” by the end of January while we are still in the single digits this year. So the favorable storm tracks for snow were already established by March. Plus Marches during the 2020s have been less snowy than the 2010s were. So even if this March can show improvement over the last 5 years, it’s unlikely we can count on March alone to get to average. Since most of those Marches had a great snowfall pattern in one prior month. 

[LibertyBell]

49 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Actually, when Philadelphia picks up 4" or more snow, New York City sees 4" or more snow two-thirds of the time.

Interesting correlations here.  So when NYC gets 4" of snow, PHL gets 4" 49% of the time but BOS gets it 64% of the time.  When BOS gets 4 inches of snow, NYC gets it 42% of the time but PHL only 26% of the time.  When PHL gets 4" of snow NYC gets it 67% of the time but BOS also gets it 54% of the time.  This shows that all three have somewhat distinct climates from each other.  If we compare PHL to BWI and DCA, I think we'll see a stronger correlation there than with PHL and NYC.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

08-09 was a much snowier winter through the end of January than this year was with 15.0” by the end of January while we are still in the single digits this year. So the favorable storm tracks for snow were already established by March. Plus Marches during the 2020s have been less snowy than the 2010s were. So even if this March can show improvement over the last 5 years, it’s unlikely we can count on March to get to average lice some last years. Since most of those Marches had a great snowfall pattern in one prior month. 

Yup. March snow will become harder to come by as we continue to warm 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

08-09 was a much snowier winter through the end of January than this year was with 15.0” by the end of January while we are still in the single digits this year. So the favorable storm tracks for snow were already established by March. Plus Marches during the 2020s have been less snowy than the 2010s were. So even if this March can show improvement over the last 5 years, it’s unlikely we can count on March alone to get to average. Since most of those Marches had a great snowfall pattern in one prior month. 

Yes, the pattern would have to set itself up in the second half of February.  We'd likely need two of those kinds of storms, one in each month.  Doesn't seem likely.  The only March I remember getting two decent snowstorms while the rest of the winter was snowless was 1991-92 when there were two March snowstorms of 4-6 inches around the solstice while the rest of the winter was nearly snowless.

 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. March snow will become harder to come by as we continue to warm 

I think we're a long way away from losing March as a snowfall month. 

Again it's Decadal. The '90s had snowy marches, the 2000s did not, the 2010s had snowy marches. So far the 2020s have not. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

I think we're a long way away from losing March as a snowfall month. 

Again it's Decadal. The '90s had snowy marches, the 2000s did not, the 2010s had snowy marches. So far the 2020s have not. 

Look up the snowfall season of 1991-92 and the two snows we had in late March that season.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, the pattern would have to set itself up in the second half of February.  We'd likely need two of those kinds of storms, one in each month.  Doesn't seem likely.  The only March I remember getting two decent snowstorms while the rest of the winter was snowless was 1991-92 when there were two March snowstorms of 4-6 inches around the solstice while the rest of the winter was nearly snowless.

 

I think in looking at the past we have to look for low snowfall, cold average temperature La Nina Winters and see where March ended up. 

Probably not that many so with a small sample size it's going to be a wait and see scenario. 

Mjo progression is in our favor.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think in looking at the past we have to look for low snowfall, cold average temperature La Nina Winters and see where March ended up. 

Probably not that many so with a small sample size it's going to be a wait and see scenario. 

Mjo progression is in our favor.

1983-84

la nina after el nino, extremely cold in December and January, snowfall was moderately low (better than this year though) and there was a March snow event in March 1984.

February 1984 was pretty warm too.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Look up the snowfall season of 1991-92 and the two snows we had in late March that season.

Yeah I think I remember these. I remember one March which was following a relatively snowless season.

We had a snowfall event which is only supposed to be 2 to 4 in and ended up being 5 to 10 followed by a vigorous clipper which gave three to six. 

What's interesting is it does not seem to follow temps. Those Winters were warm and we had a snowy late '90s March which was also warm. Then we've had snowy marches which were frigid years. The volatility during March and the change of seasons make it an extreme wild card, but in no case at this point where one can say that there's no chance.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah I think I remember these. I remember one March which was following a relatively snowless season.

We had a snowfall event which is only supposed to be 2 to 4 in and ended up being 5 to 10 followed by a vigorous clipper which gave three to six. 

What's interesting is it does not seem to follow temps. Those Winters were warm and we had a snowy late '90s March which was also warm. Then we've had snowy marches which were frigid years. The volatility during March and the change of seasons make it an extreme wild card, but in no case at this point where one can say that there's no chance.

Thats the one. 5-8 inches of snow followed by a 3-5 here. Either side of the solstice.  First 6 inch snow event in years too.

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

08-09 was a much snowier winter through the end of January than this year was with 15.0” by the end of January while we are still in the single digits this year. So the favorable storm tracks for snow were already established by March. Plus Marches during the 2020s have been less snowy than the 2010s were. So even if this March can show improvement over the last 5 years, it’s unlikely we can count on March alone to get to average. Since most of those Marches had a great snowfall pattern in one prior month. 

2008 2009 was an underrated winter. A very icy winter with a lot of snow cover days. Seems overlooked with all the other Winters which featured KU type snowfalls.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1983-84

la nina after el nino, extremely cold in December and January, snowfall was moderately low (better than this year though) and there was a March snow event in March 1984.

February 1984 was pretty warm too.

That may be a good analog, how was DC and the southeast that year? Of course not expecting a historic Gulf of Mexico snow storm LOL.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

That may be a good analog, how was DC and the southeast that year? Of course not expecting a historic Gulf of Mexico snow storm LOL.

With how extremely cold it was back then, DC area snowfalls were probably much higher lol.  I don't know of a great southeast winter from the 80s outside of December 1989 and you really do not want that analog lol (although there was a very minor snow event in April 1990, after JFM all torched!)

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1983-84

la nina after el nino, extremely cold in December and January, snowfall was moderately low (better than this year though) and there was a March snow event in March 1984.

February 1984 was pretty warm too.

Same story as 08-09. Much more snowfall both years through the end of January than this year. So March was a continuation of the seasonal pattern both La Niña years. 
 

1-31-25….5.8” so far

1-31-09….15.0”

1-31-84….13.3”

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Same story as 08-09. Much more snowfall both years through the end of January than this year. So March was a continuation of the seasonal pattern both La Niña years. 
 

1-31-25….5.8” so far

1-31-09….15.0”

1-31-84….13.3”

Did those years also have strong blocking in the first half of the season?