January 2025

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Right, however I believe the warmer weather kicks in in mid-January typically. This year is more like 10 11 or 09 08 where the La Nina affects were later than usual. 

I believe 17/18 is more standard where after the first week of January where we had the big storm it warmed up for the second half of January all the way through February before we had an epic March. 

The later the effects of the La Nina like this year the less of a hostile winter weather period. 

The reason La Nina's typically are snowier in March is because rnas are less hostile as Don pointed out. 

We could literally be looking at only a 2 to 3 week La Nina warmer than average temperature scenario before the shorter wavelengths combat the La Nina RNA pattern.

Going into the season if someone were to say we're going to have a moderate La Nina and only 2 to 3 weeks of hostile La Nina effects everyone would sign up. 

08-09 bears a lot of similarities to what you are talking about-- the last week of February and the first week of March were very snowy.  January was very similar to this month too. March 1st had the best snowstorm of the entire season and the only true coastal snowstorm.

 

 

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

As of today, there are 57 days until meteorological spring begins on March 1st. 

 

Boring

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO, this late peak argues for a latter effect of La Niña on the pattern. I don’t see how a late peak argues for the pattern to end earlier. That doesn’t make sense to me. @bluewave pointed out that aside from March 2018, our March snow patterns have failed in recent years

So in La niñas we know March can be snowy. La niñas work against winter weather due to the RNA. Don mentioned that as we get to the second half of February the RNA has less of an effect due to shorter wavelengths. 

So if the La Nina pattern kicked in mid-January, which is more typical, we would be talking about a solid month plus of an RNA kicking up the southeast Ridge in the heart of Winter. 

Now we're talking about the beginning of February until the RNA becomes less hostile which is mid February perhaps the last week so 2 to 3 weeks. That's a huge win for a La Nina. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Right, however speaking specifically of timing, I thought La niñas typically kick in the beginning to mid January not the beginning of February. The RNA becomes less of a factor mid February which would only lead to 2 to 3 weeks of hostile winter weather background state. 

Our area typically does not do well in La niñas because we lose half of January and half of February, an entire heart of winter month. El Nino's are better, as December's are typically not as snowy for our area, therefore we have a better set up in the heart of the winter months of January and February. 

By the time the pattern flips back it will be close to March. Significant snow chances for NYC are very low moving forward 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Right, however speaking specifically of timing, I thought La niñas typically kick in the beginning to mid January not the beginning of February. The RNA becomes less of a factor mid February which would only lead to 2 to 3 weeks of hostile winter weather background state. 

Our area typically does not do well in La niñas because we lose half of January and half of February, an entire heart of winter month. El Nino's are better, as December's are typically not as snowy for our area, therefore we have a better set up in the heart of the winter months of January and February. 

Our two most snowiest enso states though are weak el ninos and weak la ninas.

 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO, this late peak argues for a latter effect of La Niña on the pattern. I don’t see how a late peak argues for the pattern to end earlier. That doesn’t make sense to me. @bluewave pointed out that aside from March 2018, our March snow patterns have failed in recent years

Agreed. 
 

the flip back is a pipe dream. 

[SACRUS]

 

38 / 20 here clouds holding tough

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO, this late peak argues for a latter effect of La Niña on the pattern. I don’t see how a late peak argues for the pattern to end earlier. That doesn’t make sense to me. @bluewave pointed out that aside from March 2018, our March snow patterns have failed in recent years

he's talking about shortening wavelengths changing the way that the la nina affects the east coast.

you are correct too though, March isn't as snowy when the first part of winter isn't snowy.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

08-09 bears a lot of similarities to what you are talking about-- the last week of February and the first week of March were very snowy.  January was very similar to this month too. March 1st had the best snowstorm of the entire season and the only true coastal snowstorm.

 

 

Exactly! 

This was a huge win temperature wise we just failed in the snowfall department as Blue Wave mentioned the fast jet which unfortunately benefited the deep South with historic snowfall as well as average snowfall for the Mid-Atlantic above average for the Delmarva. 

Our bad La niñas are when the RNA kicks in early to mid January. 

We love El Nino's because we lose December which we care less about than losing one to one and a half months of January and February.

[Stormlover74]

25 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

As of today, there are 57 days until meteorological spring begins on March 1st. 

 

Uhh

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Agreed. 
 

the flip back is a pipe dream. 

More than 50% chance NYC finishes with less than 10 inches of snow and no 4 inch snowstorm.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Exactly! 

This was a huge win temperature wise we just failed in the snowfall department as Blue Wave mentioned the fast jet which unfortunately benefited the deep South with historic snowfall as well as average snowfall for the Mid-Atlantic above average for the Delmarva. 

Our bad La niñas are when the RNA kicks in early to mid January. 

We love El Nino's because we lose December which we care less about than losing one to one and a half months of January and February.

But we also have to deal with the fact that when the first half of winter has less than 10 inches of snow, March is often also not snowy.

08-09 did have quite a bit more snow at this point in time.

 

[uofmiami]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The La Niña progression has been right on track all winter. I was discussing back in October how this could be one of those mismatch La Ninas from December into January with a +PNA and the MJO warm phases influence muted. But unfortunately the Pacific Jet was never able to relax like the prior mismatch years. So our snowfall had been much lower than past years with these types of La Niña patterns. I mentioned how there were other factors due to the competing marine heatwaves in the Pacific. But we are still seeing the Southeast Ridge become a player again as we head into February which is typical for La Ninas. There have been several La Nina’s with a colder December and or January which had a warmer than average February departure.

 

 

Link to your October post on the mismatch please.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Agreed. 
 

the flip back is a pipe dream. 

March 2019 gave us back to back events early in the month after a snowless winter. We'll have to hope for that

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Exactly! 

This was a huge win temperature wise we just failed in the snowfall department as Blue Wave mentioned the fast jet which unfortunately benefited the deep South with historic snowfall as well as average snowfall for the Mid-Atlantic above average for the Delmarva. 

Our bad La niñas are when the RNA kicks in early to mid January. 

We love El Nino's because we lose December which we care less about than losing one to one and a half months of January and February.

The funny thing about el ninos is that it's usually the ones with the snowy December that are the best in terms of snow overall.

Examples are 2002-03 and 2009-10.

 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

By the time the pattern flips back it will be close to March. Significant snow chances for NYC are very low moving forward 

See I don't understand why this is the sentiment for a lot of posters. 

We literally have had snow, 6 inches, in April in Central Park. 

March is a slightly snowier month then December. Yet we put much more hope in December than we do March. 

If I lived in Central Jersey or coastal Jersey or Southwest Long Island then yes the timeline is a little shorter, the same as December. 

Just go to Ray's winter storm archive or look up events and in no way, from Central Park to Northern New Jersey to the northern half of Long Island and Eastern Long Island through Connecticut does winter end the last week of February or the first two weeks of March. 

Can we have an early spring, sure, just like we could have a late winter in December. 

Yes if you want deep snow cover that last week's and weeks then January and February is it usually except March 2015 which was frigid and snowy throughout the entire month into April.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

March 2019 gave us back to back events early in the month after a snowless winter. We'll have to hope for that

Yes, I remember something like this during the early 90s too-- was it 91-92?  There were two back to back 4"+ snowfall events after a snowless winter near the spring solstice.

 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Agreed. 
 

the flip back is a pipe dream. 

Why do you believe this, could you provide statistics please?

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Takes 5 hours to get to Boston, maybe about 90 minutes to get to Philly?

Noway, it takes me 3 hours to get to NE PA.  There is no part of PA that's less than 3 hours away from here.

[SACRUS]

 

Jan 26 2011

 

 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But we also have to deal with the fact that when the first half of winter has less than 10 inches of snow, March is often also not snowy.

08-09 did have quite a bit more snow at this point in time.

 

See this is an interesting scenario where temperatures were not the issue, which is rare excluding the 70s and '80s. In this case we had the fast pac and a drought which may be cause and effect. 

So we could be heading back into mid-February with a less hostile background state from a la nina perspective, however still deal with low precipitation and DC and the Delmarva reap the benefits again.

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The funny thing about el ninos is that it's usually the ones with the snowy December that are the best in terms of snow overall.

Examples are 2002-03 and 2009-10.

 

Yeah 2002 2003 was the rare wall to wall winter. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

See this is an interesting scenario where temperatures were not the issue, which is rare excluding the 70s and '80s. In this case we had the fast pac and a drought which may be cause and effect. 

So we could be heading back into mid-February with a less hostile background state from a la nina perspective, however still deal with low precipitation and DC and the Delmarva reap the benefits again.

I think we benefit more if it's later in February and in March.  We would need March 2014 style suppression to miss out on it that late in the season.

[SACRUS]

 

A walk back and memory lane tracking that storm 14 years ago

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

See I don't understand why this is the sentiment for a lot of posters. 

We literally have had snow, 6 inches, in April in Central Park. 

March is a slightly snowier month then December. Yet we put much more hope in December than we do March. 

If I lived in Central Jersey or coastal Jersey or Southwest Long Island then yes the timeline is a little shorter, the same as December. 

Just go to Ray's winter storm archive or look up events and in no way, from Central Park to Northern New Jersey to the northern half of Long Island and Eastern Long Island through Connecticut does winter end the last week of February or the first two weeks of March. 

Can we have an early spring, sure, just like we could have a late winter in December. 

Yes if you want deep snow cover that last week's and weeks then January and February is it usually except March 2015 which was frigid and snowy throughout the entire month into April.

 

@bluewave has given stats about how warm March has become. It makes it very difficult to get a big snowstorm in nyc 

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think we benefit more if it's later in February and in March.  We would need March 2014 style suppression to miss out on it that late in the season.

The craziest thing about March 2014 was the suppression even though the entire winter the nao and AO were positive. All the suppression was due to the polar vortex proximity.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Allsnow said:

@bluewave has given stats about how warm March has become. It makes it very difficult to get a big snowstorm in nyc 

I mean there's only a handful of big snow storms, if you're talking 12 plus, in the history of Central Park for March. So it was never in history a large snowfall month.

That being said there are plenty of snowfall events for Central Park in March and even April. 

I mentioned this before, however March snowfall tends to be Decadal, which yes does argue against snowfall this decade, similar to 2000 through 2010 where it never ever snowed in March or very rarely. Opposed to the 1990s or the 2010s where it snowed a lot in March. So there's a different reason for less snowfall. 

That being said is somebody going to go into any December and say nope no snowfall can't happen? If nobody does that, why do they do that with March? 

All I'm saying is there's no reason to say there's no way or it's a pipe dream that winter will return. Unless somebody has irrefutable evidence to this effect, I cannot see any reason to believe this especially given shorter wavelengths and the mjos progression.

 

[bluewave]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Right, however speaking specifically of timing, I thought La niñas typically kick in the beginning to mid January not the beginning of February. The RNA becomes less of a factor mid February which would only lead to 2 to 3 weeks of hostile winter weather background state. 

Our area typically does not do well in La niñas because we lose half of January and half of February, an entire heart of winter month. El Nino's are better, as December's are typically not as snowy for our area, therefore we have a better set up in the heart of the winter months of January and February. 

Even though this La Niña was later to get going, the La Niña atmospheric response became very strong during October into November as per the CP OLR readings. But since it was a mismatch year, we got the +PNA from December into January. This has happened many times in the past also. These occurrences were also accompanied by some areas experiencing the coldest winter readings in mid to late January like we just did. Those other La Ninas also saw the Southeast Ridge and departures rebound for February.

The Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet influence has been very strong this winter even by La Niña standards. Several locations actually had more snowfall by this time in the 2011-2012 La Niña. So even though spots like the CT Shoreline have had less snow so far than 2011-2012, this year was significantly colder. So this shows us that the La Niña can also manifest in a way that results in hostile storm tracks for snow even when it’s more than cold enough to snow.  

Pacific Jet actually less hostile for snow at some spots here in Southern CT back in 2011-2022 through the end of January like Bridgeport to New Haven.

 

Data for October 1, 2011 through January 26, 2012
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

TRUMBULL	COOP	11.5
IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	11.4
NEW HAVEN 1.7 NW	CoCoRaHS	11.2
WESTPORT 2.5 ENE	CoCoRaHS	8.7
GROTON	COOP	8.5
MILFORD 2.9 ESE	CoCoRaHS	7.0

 

 

Data for October 1, 2024 through January 26, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

SHELTON 1.3 W	CoCoRaHS	10.5
NEW CANAAN 3.8 N	CoCoRaHS	10.5
NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE	CoCoRaHS	9.9
STAMFORD 1.0 S	CoCoRaHS	8.2
NORWALK 2.9 NNW	CoCoRaHS	8.1
NORTHFORD 0.8 SW	CoCoRaHS	5.5
IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	5.4
GUILFORD	COOP	5.2
DARIEN 2.4 NW	CoCoRaHS	5.2
STRATFORD 0.2 ESE	CoCoRaHS	5.0
KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE	CoCoRaHS	4.4
MADISON CENTER 1.3 N	CoCoRaHS	3.9
GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW	CoCoRaHS	3.9
NORWALK 1.4 ENE	CoCoRaHS	3.0

 

 

 

[Rjay]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave has given stats about how warm March has become. It makes it very difficult to get a big snowstorm in nyc 

Yea March has warmed but we just need some blocking, cold air and some luck for a big March snowstorm.   

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

But our weather does not really match any of the other cities, even Philadelphia, who often get hit by snow that misses us to the south.  The distance between Philadelphia and NYC is about the same as the distance between NYC and Boston, I think?  I think we'll be above normal too, on the strength of perhaps hitting 50 or even being in the lower 50s on Wednesday.

 

 

Actually, when Philadelphia picks up 4" or more snow, New York City sees 4" or more snow two-thirds of the time.