January 2025

[Roger Smith]

Even so, mild Jan 1890 had zero snowfall and Jan 1933 (Tr) is t-2nd lowest with 2008 and 2023. Jan 1934 is 5th lowest at 0.1" (it was between epic cold Dec 1933 and Feb 1934). So it probably always needed cold air nearby to snow at NYC.

68 of 156 Decembers have had less snow than 2024 at 2.8" so far.

The 69th lowest Jan snowfall is 4.7" and for Feb it is 5.4", mar 2.5", Apr trace, so those would be "persistence" forecasts of winter snow, adding to a total of 15.4" (69th lowest winter total is 24.5" in 1976-77, 15.4" would rank 37th lowest and close to 15.3" in 1912-13 and 15.5" in 1970-71). 

 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

wouldn’t call the STJ inactive at all. it’s definitely there with a split flow pattern

and all depends where the split flows and we need a buckle in the flow to slow the raging pacific flow down which is going to transport the cold air this week very fast across the country to our neck of the woods.......

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Storm track is more important than average temperatures for NYC snowfall in January.  Since it can always snow even when it’s warm this time of year with the right storm track with the average temperatures most Januaries.The temperatures only matter on the day of the event along with the storm track. 

NYC January average temperatures and snowfall last 10 years

2024….37.0°….2.3”

2023….43.5°…T

2022….30.3°…15.3”

2021….34.8°…2.1”

2020….39.1°…2.3”

2019….32.5°…1.1”

2018….31.7°….11.2”

2017….38.0°…7.9”

2016….34.5°…27.9”

2015….29.9°…16.9”

 

 

Great post, as long as there is a cold source to the north to tap into it can snow in warmer temperatures in January and February with the right track.

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

sure, the STJ isn’t roaring, but it’s definitely there. can see the jet dipping off the coast of Baja CA, so you’d be able to tap into the STJ if a vort does dig enough. the 18z GFS is a good example of that

Lots of potential here for sure, and potentially multiple events.

[Rjay]

25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

wouldn’t call the STJ inactive at all. it’s definitely there with a split flow pattern

It's pretty inactive but we could still get a big storm. 

[EastonSN+]

Gefs keeps the trough in the East right to the end.

[brooklynwx99]

27 minutes ago, Rjay said:

It's pretty inactive but we could still get a big storm. 

yeah it’s not like a Nino STJ but as long as it has some influence it makes a big difference 

[wdrag]

Toying with a 5 day post Jan 6-10 five window to pick up widespread 2-7" of snow as now 10 to 1 ratio base amount ensembled by the 12z/28 CMCE and EPS, and 18z/28 GEFS.  That would focus snowfall opportunity tracking for 1 or 2 events.  I've not seen enough similar ensembled qpf-snow predictions to see how this can fail but I'm sure it can, so am holding off-thinking on it for at another day or two to see how the ensembles depart this baseline.  

Failure clue is the Total Snow Depth Change in that time frame which shows much of LI 1" or less. 

The NAEFS with the QPF axis well to our southeast, still is with about a 30%  chance for 1" qpf in that time frame. That's pretty hefty considering its still 8+ days in advance of Jan 6. The chance for 0.4" qpf in that time frame is about 55-60%.

Attached is an example from the 12z/28 version of the 50 member NAEFS for > 10 mm/ qpf in the time Fram 00z/6-00z/11. 

If this does fail,  the ECMWF long range still allows opportunity after the 11th for several weeks though I need to limit enthusiasm (apply skepticism) on outlooks beyond 2 weeks. 

No new threads from myself for at least a day, possibly not at all if the ensembles slowly lower amounts., 

[jm1220]

2020-21 wasn’t a cold winter but was above average for most/all of us for snow because of the Dec storm and early-mid Feb window. From 2/1 until we warmed up after 2/15 I had 12”+ on the ground. In this new climate like others said we have to max out the windows we do get for snow. 

[MJO812]

Are we really in a new climate or have we just been getting bad luck in the past few years ?

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Great post, as long as there is a cold source to the north to tap into it can snow in warmer temperatures in January and February with the right track.

Yeah, it can snow pretty much anytime in January or February regardless of the monthly average temperatures with the right storm track. We got this with the snow near the 80° day in February 2018. Then again multiple times in winters like 16-17 with blizzards the day after 60s record warmth. 

[North and West]

Can you say Blizzard for the 8th-9th on the gfs ? Wow.

Dude, or whatever you kids call each other these days, take a deep breath. You’re going to drive yourself crazy and then you and your best buddies will argue for days.


.

[North and West]

Are we really in a new climate or have we just been getting bad luck in the past few years ?
 

.

[Yanksfan]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Are we really in a new climate or have we just been getting bad luck in the past few years ?

 

Everything is cyclical with the weather. I lived thru the ‘80’s. I thought it would never snow again.

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, Yanksfan said:

Everything is cyclical with the weather. I lived thru the ‘80’s. I thought it would never snow again.

70s and 80s here on LI.  I honestly felt that the climate would only produce 6”+ storms maybe 2-3 times per decade.

[MJO812]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The best way for this pattern to deliver would be for the Pacific Jet and influence to weaken enough so the 5-6th event shifts south from the Great Lakes. Then have a perfect SWFE thread the needle. Just enough of a wave to ride NE with a widespread 4-8” swath of snow. But not too sheared out with a weaker wave and only 1-3” or 2-4” near NYC. Then have that storm on the 9-10th come out with perfect thread the needle wave spacing allowing plenty of time to rapidly deepen off the East Coast for a widespread 12-24”. But we would need to see the Pacific relax in a manner that we have seen in years to pull off that feat. 

The pattern modeled in January isn't thread the needle. Our big snowstorms have come after the AO dips to negative 3/4.

[wishcast_hater]

Are we really in a new climate or have we just been getting bad luck in the past few years ?
 

Bad Luck - 150 years of records is nothing in the scope of man’s existence.


.

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Bad Luck - 150 years of records is nothing in the scope of man’s existence.


.

People said that we will not see huge snowstorms again because the climate is changing.  Bullshit.

A good pattern will yield good results.

[Rjay]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

People said that we will not see huge snowstorms again because the climate is changing.  Bullshit.

A good pattern will yield good results.

Literally no one actually believes that

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Are we really in a new climate or have we just been getting bad luck in the past few years ?

 

I suspect that it's a combination of both. It's too soon to be sure whether NYC is in the very early stages of a structural decline in snowfall from a warming climate. By the mid-2030s, it will probably be clear e.g., if NYC's seasonal snowfall has fallen to 20" or below (as suggested with regression analysis).

Here's how NYC's 30-year mean snowfall stacks up against its 30-season winter mean temperatures:

Here's Washington, DC's where seasonal snowfall has become structurally lower:

Notice that both cities saw an increase as they approached mean winter temperatures of 36° that continued shortly afterward. NYC's decrease will likely be lower simply because NYC is closer to Canada and even in a warmer climate will see stronger shots of cold than Washington, DC.

Both cities will remain capable of seeing big snowstorms, even as Washington's seasonal snowfall has declined and even if New York City's is in the early stages of a structural, non-cyclical decline. Both cities can still see very snowy winters. Winter 2009-10 in Washington, DC provides an example of multiple big snowstorms there and a very snowy winter despite a climate that had warmed by 1.4° over the prior 20 years.

[Jersey Andrew]

4 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Even so, mild Jan 1890 had zero snowfall and Jan 1933 (Tr) is t-2nd lowest with 2008 and 2023. Jan 1934 is 5th lowest at 0.1" (it was between epic cold Dec 1933 and Feb 1934). So it probably always needed cold air nearby to snow at NYC.

68 of 156 Decembers have had less snow than 2024 at 2.8" so far.

The 69th lowest Jan snowfall is 4.7" and for Feb it is 5.4", mar 2.5", Apr trace, so those would be "persistence" forecasts of winter snow, adding to a total of 15.4" (69th lowest winter total is 24.5" in 1976-77, 15.4" would rank 37th lowest and close to 15.3" in 1912-13 and 15.5" in 1970-71). 

 

Roger, any thoughts about the vast cold outbreak expected January 2025? Apparently it’s expected to envelope Europe in addition to United States.

[MJO812]

Gfs is coming south with the 6th wave.  More pronounced ridge out west.

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is coming south with the 6th wave.  More pronounced ridge out west.

Completely sheared out

[mitchnick]

Canadian looked better than Gfs for something worthwhile early on.

[MJO812]

Gfs is about to show a huge storm again. Nice ridge out west with a beautiful 50/50 low.

[Allsnow]

12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Completely sheared out

It’s a huge storm. 12+

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

It’s a huge storm. 12+

 

[RU848789]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is about to show a huge storm again. Nice ridge out west with a beautiful 50/50 low.

A little snow...

[RU848789]

Four below average winters in a row, including 2 duds (3 for most, but we got 24.6" last winter with almost half of that from the Norlun Trough Mega Death Band from Heaven), will make me post Day 11 GFS Op runs.  Wow.  

[jdj5211]

doubt we'd be looking at 10-1 ratios here....it's mighty cold