January 2025

[JustinRP37]

I am glad we are sustained cold this year. Snow is great, but I'd much rather have sustained cold than snowy but warm (as a skier). Even though we are mainly on blown snow at ski mountains, they are in great shape this year and getting a lot of business which is great of the local economies. So given the choice between cold and dry and warmer but snowy, I will always choose cold and dry. Now what I would love is sustained cold AND snow, but lately we can't hope for too much. Last year we were already staring at a warm February where many of the ski areas limped into March and had an early closing. 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I really hate that term *the aughts* it sounds ancient and too much like *the eights*  why can't we just call it *the zeroes*?

I understand there was no year *zero* but now that we are smart enough that we know what zero means, why not go back and renumber the calendar and create a year zero? That would fix this entire mess and then the millennium would indeed begin on January 1, 2000.

 

Aught or Naught?

[wdrag]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

In general, La Niña winters with less than 10" total snowfall through January haven't fared well during February or March.

All winters since 1949-50:
Mean February Snow: 8.9"; Mean March Snow: 4.5"

All La Niña Winters/Less than 10" Snow through January 31:
Mean February Snow: 4.2"; Mean March Snow: 3.7"

All La Niña Winters/10" or More Snow through January 31:
Mean February Snow: 9.2"; Mean March Snow: 4.7"

With the February AO possibly averaging positive:

All La Niña Winters: February AO > 0:
Mean February Snow: 6.1"; Mean March Snow: 3.5"

All La Niña Winters: February AO average of +0.5 or above:
Mean February Snow: 4.1"; Mean March Snow: 1.3"

Three out of five La Niña winters with a December PNA+ saw 10" or more snow in March. However, all three had 10" or more seasonal snowfall through January 31st.

Sample sizes are small, so there is considerable sample size uncertainty.

Don,  This is helpful.  We can only hope to expand the sample size with larger snowfalls. BUT,  all of us need to be aware that it might be too good for us the rest of the way in CP. Don's numbers suggest 5-10" more as the somewhat probable expectation, barring an unexpected significant snowfall in late January. 

[donsutherland1]

The cold peaked this morning. Although New York City fell to 10° and Philadelphia bottomed out at 11°, temperatures outside both cities were much colder. Low temperatures included:

Albany: -9°
Allentown: -8°
Binghamton: -5°
Bridgeport: 7°
Danbury: -7°
Hartford: -6°
Islip: 7°
Montgomery: -14°
Mount Pocono: -15°
New Haven: 6°
Newark: 8°
Poughkeepsie: -10°
Providence: 7°
Reading: -7°
Scranton: -9°
Sussex: -14°
Trenton: 2°
Westhampton: 0°
White Plains: 3°

Very cold weather will prevail through tomorrow with temperatures slowly warming above freezing by Saturday and into the upper 30s by Sunday.

The AO is now positive and is expected to remain predominantly positive into at least the middle of first week of February. As a result, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City area will be limited. Since 1950, just 2 of 19 (11%) of storms with an AO of +2.000 or above during January 15-February 15 saw 6" or more of snow in New York City. Opportunities for a 6" or above snowstorm could persist for parts of southern New England, including Boston, through January.   

A sustained milder period could develop during or after the first week of February.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +10.60 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.035 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 29.7° (4.2° below normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

57 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I am glad we are sustained cold this year. Snow is great, but I'd much rather have sustained cold than snowy but warm (as a skier). Even though we are mainly on blown snow at ski mountains, they are in great shape this year and getting a lot of business which is great of the local economies. So given the choice between cold and dry and warmer but snowy, I will always choose cold and dry. Now what I would love is sustained cold AND snow, but lately we can't hope for too much. Last year we were already staring at a warm February where many of the ski areas limped into March and had an early closing. 

It depends on your interest in snow.  Some people never ski and just want to see snow fall.  For these people snow is more important than cold weather.

If you're a skiier than cold weather is more important than snow because the ski areas can always make their own snow.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The cold peaked this morning. Although New York City fell to 10° and Philadelphia bottomed out at 11°, temperatures outside both cities were much colder. Low temperatures included:

Albany: -9°
Allentown: -8°
Binghamton: -5°
Bridgeport: 7°
Danbury: -7°
Hartford: -6°
Islip: 7°
Montgomery: -14°
Mount Pocono: -15°
New Haven: 6°
Newark: 8°
Poughkeepsie: -10°
Providence: 7°
Reading: -7°
Scranton: -9°
Sussex: -14°
Trenton: 2°
Westhampton: 0°
White Plains: 3°

Very cold weather will prevail through tomorrow with temperatures slowly warming above freezing by Saturday and into the upper 30s by Sunday.

The AO is now positive and is expected to remain predominantly positive into at least the middle of first week of February. As a result, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City area will be limited. Since 1950, just 2 of 19 (11%) of storms with an AO of +2.000 or above during January 15-February 15 saw 6" or more of snow in New York City. Opportunities for a 6" or above snowstorm could persist for parts of southern New England, including Boston, through January.   

A sustained milder period could develop during or after the first week of February.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +10.60 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.035 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 29.7° (4.2° below normal).

 

Don is the -15 at MPO the lowest temperature there in many years?

[anthonymm]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

when we talk about the 80s we're really talking about the late 80s, the early 80s were much better.

Still much better than the current pattern. Of the five late 80s winters only one had <10", and two were in the 20" ballpark (one a little below, the other a little above). So I don't think it's an exaggeration to say the current snow drought is literally unprecedented. 

[anthonymm]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We can simplify things even more and just look at any 10 year period for a place with at least a 60 year long snowfall measurement period. The lowest 10 year running snowfall average on record at JFK was 18.0” from 67-68 to 76-77. The current 7 year running average snowfall at JFK starting in 18-19 is down to 13.6” which is the lowest. I will update it again at the end of this season since we are just beyond the midpoint in a La Nina winter which usually has most of its snow by the end of January. The previous lowest 7 year running average was 15.8” from 85-86 to 91-92. That 7 year average jumped up in the following seasons due to the record snowfall in 93-94 and 95-96. The lowest previous 10 year running average snowfall ended in 76-77 at 18.0”. We had the record 77-78 season the next year. So we are really going to have to pick up the snowfall rates next 3 to 4 years in order to prevent the 2020s from becoming the lowest cardinal decade along with a new low for any 10 year period. JFK is representative of most of our 60 year+ climate sites across the whole area.

Yup if the next 3-4 dont end up each being in the 30" range the 2020s end remarkably snowless.

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

I am glad we are sustained cold this year. Snow is great, but I'd much rather have sustained cold than snowy but warm (as a skier). Even though we are mainly on blown snow at ski mountains, they are in great shape this year and getting a lot of business which is great of the local economies. So given the choice between cold and dry and warmer but snowy, I will always choose cold and dry. Now what I would love is sustained cold AND snow, but lately we can't hope for too much. Last year we were already staring at a warm February where many of the ski areas limped into March and had an early closing. 

A lot of places are having a tough time making enough snow, take a look at trail counts at places like Catamount and a few others that have missed out on decent natural snow. If we don't get some r**n soon it's going to get dicey.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Still much better than the current pattern. Of the five late 80s winters only one had <10", and two were in the 20" ballpark (one a little below, the other a little above). So I don't think it's an exaggeration to say the current snow drought is literally unprecedented. 

it's worse, but not by a huge amount.  I lived through that period, it was unbearable.  Particularly because we did not have the 00s and 10s to look back on.  Having experienced the 00s and 10s, I'm pretty sure I've experienced the best that winter has to offer.  It's only going to be downhill from there (pun intended.)

We've had the best of times already so I'm okay with whatever happens from now on.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, gravitylover said:

A lot of places are having a tough time making enough snow, take a look at trail counts at places like Catamount and a few others that have missed out on decent natural snow. If we don't get some r**n soon it's going to get dicey.

wait you need r**n to make snow?

[anthonymm]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's worse, but not by a huge amount.  I lived through that period, it was unbearable.  Particularly because we did not have the 00s and 10s to look back on.  Having experienced the 00s and 10s, I'm pretty sure I've experienced the best that winter has to offer.  It's only going to be downhill from there (pun intended.)

We've had the best of times already so I'm okay with whatever happens from now on.

Ah well I only moved to the area (came from a snow free place) in the early 2020s. So for me NYC doesnt feel like a snowy place at all.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, anthonymm said:

Ah well I only moved to the area (came from a snow free place) in the early 2020s. So for me NYC doesnt feel like a snowy place at all.

You missed some of our best years by just a few.  A 30 inch blizzard in January 2016 and an incredible period from March 2018 to April 2018 when we had 5 snowstorms!

[anthonymm]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

You missed some of our best years by just a few.  A 30 inch blizzard in January 2016 and an incredible period from March 2018 to April 2018 when we had 5 snowstorms!

Well aware. I discovered I loved snow when I moved here so now its agonizing. Knowing I just missed the snowiest decade is like salt in the wound. 

[nycwinter]

a cold winter but a boring winter the worst thing about this winter so far is all the salt on the sidewalks and street that i have to wipe off my shoes when i get home.. we need rain to wash it all away..if we are not getting any big snowstorms this winter i then would prefer warmer and rainy weather instead..

[donsutherland1]

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don is the -15 at MPO the lowest temperature there in many years?

It was the coldest there since February 24, 2015 (-16).

[Allsnow]

 

[NorthShoreWx]

We will radiate better here than last night, even if some clouds do move in.  Less than 2 miles from the sound, with clouds and a north breeze off the water, we didn't radiate at all last night and the low was 13.5°.  Tonight's forecasted low is 13° and we are already down to 14°.  The main difference is calmer winds, or a light breeze with a southerly component.  North shore microclimates.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It was the coldest there since February 24, 2015 (-16).

and was that the coldest temperature that entire month, Don?  That was our coldest month in a long long time....

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

it's interesting that there's a major snow drought in Alaska

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

a cold winter but a boring winter the worst thing about this winter so far is all the salt on the sidewalks and street that i have to wipe off my shoes when i get home.. we need rain to wash it all away..if we are not getting any big snowstorms this winter i then would prefer warmer and rainy weather instead..

or warm and sunny

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

and was that the coldest temperature that entire month, Don?  That was our coldest month in a long long time....

Yes. February 20, 1993 had the next colder reading (-18).

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. February 20, 1993 had the next colder reading (-18).

wow, I thought it would have been colder than that in January 1994, Don!  When was the last time it was -20 or colder there, Don, January 1985 or January 1977? Thanks!

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow, I thought it would have been colder than that in January 1994, Don!  When was the last time it was -20 or colder there, Don, January 1985 or January 1977? Thanks!

December 24, 1989: -20

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

December 24, 1989: -20

Christmas eve of our coldest December in our lifetimes.

It looks like the climate there has warmed too, -20 and colder readings there were more common in the past and must be like 0 and below for NYC-- MPO's coldest temperature on record is -35 from back in 1912.

 

http://climate.met.psu.edu/data/city_information/lcds/mpo.php#:~:text=The lowest temperature ever recorded,in the form of snow.

 

 

The lowest temperature ever recorded at Mt. Pocono was -35 degrees on January 14, 1912.

 

[Allsnow]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's interesting that there's a major snow drought in Alaska

Consistent AK ridge this winter. 
 

usually that’s good for us but the pattern has been so suppressive 

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

December 24, 1989: -20

Next colder day was in January 1985, Don?

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Consistent AK ridge this winter. 
 

usually that’s good for us but the pattern has been so suppressive 

This is why we had so many years back in the 70s and 80s with below average snowfall, when we did have a favorable ridge out west, we still didn't get our snow.

[Monty]

GFS trending towards a near miss Tuesday next week. Rex signature getting a little rexier (sexier?) allowing the northern stream to dig. 

 

[Gravity Wave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

You missed some of our best years by just a few.  A 30 inch blizzard in January 2016 and an incredible period from March 2018 to April 2018 when we had 5 snowstorms!

That March--April 2018 period wasn't particularly amazing in the City proper. 3 of those storms were white rain, at least in Manhattan.