January 2025

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Interesting winter so far. The pattern has changed from the beginning of December till now, yet we still are not getting moisture. Too much blocking no moisture, lost blocking no moisture. The one constant has been the trough south of Greenland. 

The common thread has been the lack of BM KU snowstorms. The track earlier in the winter was through the Great Lakes and most spots had a wetter than normal December with 4 to 6 inches of rain. This month the storm track has been suppressed south with a very dry pattern here. The one snow event the other day event had the rain-snow line and low pressure hug the coast at the start in the 40s. So we lost some accumulation to rain at the start and snow melting. The risk going forward is that we only get another short window of opportunity heading into early February. This is when the EPO shifts from negative to positive. Then the storm track may shift back to the Great Lakes again beyond that point as we eventually get the Southeast Ridge to return as is typical for La Nina Februaries.

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

-11 (-10.8) might do it for the low, will know within the next hour. 

-11 goes in the books as the low (-11.2)

[Allsnow]

@bluewave this is crazy 

 

This blows away the snow and temps of 1895 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The common thread has been the lack of BM KU snowstorms. The track earlier in the winter was through the Great Lakes and most spots had a wetter than normal December with 4 to 6 inches of rain. This month the storm track has been suppressed south with a very dry pattern here. The one snow event the other day event had the rain-snow line and low pressure hug the coast at the start in the 40s. So we lost some accumulation to rain at the start and snow melting. The risk going forward is that we only get another short window of opportunity heading into early February. This is when the EPO shifts from negative to positive. Then the storm track may shift back to the Great Lakes again beyond that point as we eventually get the Southeast Ridge to return as is typical for La Nina Februaries.

Agreed looking at the ensembles we are heading in that La niña direction. That being said we tend to get into a colder period in late February and March in La niñas. Will be interesting to see if the same holds true this year.

Although I have heard that this La Nina is not coupled, we seem to have followed an extended La Nina blueprint of a colder than normal December and colder than normal first week of January. Obviously we've gone into the second half of January colder than average which is against La niña typically.

I think the mjo will come into play more than December, as during that month the blocking may have countered the warm phases of the mjo. 

Now that we have lost blocking, the ensembles are taking on the look of phases four five and six. That said, we should be heading into the colder phases second half of February and March which again would follow the La Nina footprint.

Will be interesting to track 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Looks like -8° will do it for my low this morning.

My coldest reading since the -11° of February 14, 2016.

 

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Poker2015 said:

That's all? -6.1 right now and a friend in town is at -8.3

Yeah, something must be up with his Station.  I was -5 and I see Somerville was -8.  Looking at the ambient app, most places around the area were -2 to -9.  I see the other Hillsborough guy was -4.9

[wdrag]

Looking ahead: I have no threads, at least not for a few days. 

Think we just had the worst week of winter... hopefully snowfall can make a comeback in FEB-March but a little concerned now that we might not see more than 5" the rest of the way at CP.  Coastal temps are looking marginal first week of Feb when qpf events become active. 

This add on I thought interesting this morning .. 5AM temps over snowcover >2".

 

[weathermedic]

From the NWS New York X (formerly Twitter) feed:

Once again our weather balloon measured upper level wind speeds of 203 knots (234 mph) at a pressure level of 243 mb (around 34,000 ft)! This makes the 12th such observation of 200+ knot winds from our site, dating back to 1952.

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Agreed looking at the ensembles we are heading in that La niña direction. That being said we tend to get into a colder period in late February and March in La niñas. Will be interesting to see if the same holds true this year.

Although I have heard that this La Nina is not coupled, we seem to have followed an extended La Nina blueprint of a colder than normal December and colder than normal first week of January. Obviously we've gone into the second half of January colder than average which is against La niña typically.

I think the mjo will come into play more than December, as during that month the blocking may have countered the warm phases of the mjo. 

Now that we have lost blocking, the ensembles are taking on the look of phases four five and six. That said, we should be heading into the colder phases second half of February and March which again would follow the La Nina footprint.

Will be interesting to track 

The late January cold timing is similar to some past La Ninas. While the magnitude of this cold was less than the January 20 to 31 La Niña periods in 2011, 2000, 1985, 1984, and 1976, the snowfall has been much lower. Those La Niña years had some impressive late January snowstorms also to go along with the cold. 

[SACRUS]

 

10 / -4 off a low of 1 here (coldest of the season).   Cold continues with slight moderation today.  Near normal and at or above freezing  Sat / sun before a warmer Sunday.  Overall looking dry through the 27th.  Colder close to the month and open to Feb with any sustained warmup pushing beyond Groundhogs day.  Perhaps the next opportunity for snow or mix will come near the 30th.

 

[Allsnow]

 

[SACRUS]

 

Sunset 17:01 today.  Despite the later sunset we are still in the middle of the coldest part of winter through the 30th before daily normals start to rise.

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

Got down to 5F overnight, low max on the winter so far and definitely the coldest temp I’ve read on my Tempest since installing it a few years ago. 

[Allsnow]

 

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The late January cold timing is similar to some past La Ninas. While the magnitude of this cold was less than the January 20 to 31 La Niña periods in 2011, 2000, 1985, 1984, and 1976, the snowfall has been much lower. Those La Niña years had some impressive late January snowstorms also to go along with the cold. 

2011 was of course historic. However just taking snowfall starting February 1st wasn't bad. 

We had a one to three inch changeover event in early February. Then we had a four to six inch overrunning event in early March I believe.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 62 (1954)
NYC: 61 (1959)
LGA: 57 (1973)
JFK: 55 (1973)


Lows:

EWR: -1 (1984)
NYC: 0 (1888)
LGA: 5 (2005)
JFK: 6 (2005)

Historical:

 

 

1904: An unusual estimated F4 tornado leveled the northern part of Moundville, Alabama, just after midnight, killing 37 people. The tornado reportedly had a phosphorescent glow. An engineer on a northbound Great Southern train saw the destruction right after it occurred and backed his train 12 miles in reverse to the town of Akron, where he sent a telegram for help.

 

1937: Low of 9 degrees above zero in Las Vegas froze many pipes. Schools had trouble keeping warm, and coal was in short supply in the city. January 1937 was the coldest month on record for Las Vegas, with an average temperature of 31.2 degrees, 17.5 degrees below normal.

1943 - Chinook winds during the early morning hours caused the temperature at Spearfish SD to rise from 4 below zero to 45 above in just two minutes, the most dramatic temperature rise in world weather records. An hour and a half later the mercury plunged from 54 above to 4 below zero in twenty-seven minutes. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A winter storm spread snow from central Mississippi through northern Georgia to New England. Up to 15 inches of snow fell across the heavily populated areas of Virginia, Maryland and Delaware. Traffic tie-ups nearly paralyzed the Washington D.C. area. Winds gusted to 76 mph at Chatham MA, and in Pennsylvania, snowfall totals ranged up to 21 inches at Dushore. Williamsport PA received five inches of snow in just one hour. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - The nation was free of winter storms for a day, however, winds in southern California gusted to 80 mph in the Grapevine area of the Tehachapi Mountains, and winds along the eastern slopes of the Rockies reached 100 mph in the Upper Yellowstone Valley of Montana. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure brought heavy rain and gale force winds to Florida. Daytona Beach was drenched with 5.48 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a January record for that location, and winds at Titusville FL gusted to 63 mph. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - It was a very tame and peaceful mid winter day. Mild weather prevailed across the nation, with rain and snow primarily confined to the northeastern U.S. and the Pacific Northwest. Warm weather continued in Florida. Highs of 83 degrees at Hollywood and 85 degrees at Miami were records for the date. (National Weather Summary)

2000 - A severe ice storm hit northern Georgia and portions of northwest South Carolina on January 22-23. Over half a million utility customers were without power during and after the storm, with the Atlanta area severely affected.

2005 - A major winter snowstorm, referred to as the Blizzard of 2005, affected the Northeastern United States. More than one foot of snow covered much of southern New England in the storm's aftermath, with well over two feet in some areas of Massachusetts. Strong winds created blizzard conditions with low visibilities and considerable blowing and drifting of snow. (NCDC)

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Looking ahead: I have no threads, at least not for a few days. 

Think we just had the worst week of winter... hopefully snowfall can make a comeback in FEB-March but a little concerned now that we might not see more than 5" the rest of the way at CP.  Coastal temps are looking marginal first week of Feb when qpf events become active. 

This add on I thought interesting this morning .. 5AM temps over snowcover >2".

 

We done with snowfall now? 

[SACRUS]

 

NYC:

 

Jan 22, 1987 : 8.1 inches of snowfall at NYC.  Much more in Long Island and in the mid Atlantic

Jan 22, 2005: 13.9 inches of snow in the Blizzard of 2005
 

[SACRUS]

 

Jan 21 - 22 1987

 

[SACRUS]

 

And the Blizzard of 2005

 

[SACRUS]

22 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Current cold period departures

1/20

EWR: 28 / 16 (-10)
NYC: 26 / 17 (-11)
LGA: 28 / 18 (-11)
JFK: 29 / 19 (-8)
 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

1/21:

EWR: 20 / 7 (-18)
NYC: 19 / 11 (-18)
LGA: 20 / 13 (-17)
JFK: 20 / 14 (-15)

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[bluewave]

50 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave this is crazy 

 

This blows away the snow and temps of 1895 

 

 

The 1895 event had a much colder pattern leading up to that record snow. This one had the cold come after the snow was on the ground due to the great radiational cooling conditions. So the record cold this time had a much smaller footprint in the CONUS than how extensive the cold was in 1895. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The 1895 event had a much colder pattern leading up to that record snow. This one had the cold come after the snow was on the ground due to the great radiational cooling conditions. So the record cold this time had a much smaller footprint in the CONUS than how extensive the cold was in 1895. 

Yes, but temperatures were colder during the actual storm 

[wdrag]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We done with snowfall now? 

I  guess.  what do you think?

I just checked EC AI for Feb 1-2... something not making a lot of sense...  warm thickness and warm 850 temps but freezing surface temps all the way down to LI Sound with 1/2" qpf.  That would be interesting snow-ice-rain... a modeled off and on and off again system. 

Normally(within the sample range) around Feb 5-7 is a pretty good time for the Boston area to get a decent snowfall.  

I don't like how the PV is modeled to recenter broadly across Canada in early Feb. Suggests mild here. NAEFS 2M also suggest the same relaxing of the cold. 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We done with snowfall now? 

This can't be a serious question in January .

[Picard]

-6 in Sparta on my deck.  Looks like Walpack bottomed out at -17, which is typically the cold spot in this area.  Interesting experiment - I put an old mercury thermometer directly on the surface of the snow out back and recorded the temp at 6:30 am.  It read -15.  Certainly not an official reading, but the surface of that snow is cold!  That explains why the dog hates walking in it.  

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I  guess.  what do you think?

I just checked EC AI for Feb 1-2... something not making a lot of sense...  warm thickness and warm 850 temps but freezing surface temps all the way down to LI Sound with 1/2" qpf.  That would be interesting snow-ice-rain... a modeled off and on and off again system. 

Normally(within the sample range) around Feb 5-7 is a pretty good time for the Boston area to get a decent snowfall.  

I don't like how the PV is modeled to recenter broadly across Canada in early Feb. Suggests mild here. NAEFS 2M also suggest the same relaxing of the cold. 

Cmc has something for the end of the month 

[Allsnow]

 

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This can't be a serious question in January .

His post kind of implied it, no? 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yes, but temperatures were colder during the actual storm 

The record cold is very narrowly focused this time around as February 1895 was the 3rd coldest on record for the entire CONUS. 
 

Contiguous U.S. Average Temperature

February

February 1936 25.23°F 1 -8.59°F February 1899 25.50°F 2 -8.32°F February 1895 26.60°F 3 -7.22°F February 1929 26.92°F 4 -6.90°F February 1905 26.94°F 5 -6.88°F