January 2025

[brooklynwx99]

41 minutes ago, Rjay said:

You sure about that?  If I had to pick a wave it'd be the next one.  

my guess the 6-7th is a weaker wave that reinforces confluence for the 8-9th. ensembles really amplify the trough for that second window

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The op was def drunk and crazy amped 

The OP and ensemble mean are different sides of the same coin. One is overamped on the northern stream and the other is a weaker system moving through in the fast flow. Hopefully, we can slow the Northern Stream influence enough to allow us to maximize the window of opportunity we get this month. 

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The OP and ensemble mean are different sides of the same coin. One is overamped on the northern stream and the other is a weaker system moving through in the fast flow. Hopefully, we can slow the Northern Stream influence enough to allow us to maximize the window of opportunity we get this month. 

Yes, but there are idv members that provide 4+ for nyc on both sides of that coin. 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yes, but there are idv members that provide 4+ for nyc on both sides of that coin. 

But the means including the GEPS and GEFS are mostly on the light side.

[CooL]

EPS is honking. Blocking, cold, storms, the whole 9 yards. 

[qg_omega]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

My main concern for the Jan 6-13 period is that the Northern Stream remains too fast. Notice the extended EPS lowering surface pressures and increasing precipitation over the over the Pacific Northwest. The heaviest precipitation anomalies by our region are just offshore with lower pressures there. Almost like the energy coming into the Pacific Northwest is acting a kicker leading to stronger development to our east. This faster Northern Stream is what we have been dealing with in December which allowed a few smaller snow events around NYC but no 6”+ storms. So we want to see later runs slow the Pacific Jet into the Pacific Northwest allowing coastal development closer to our area. It would probably be easier to pull off a major 6”+snow in  NYC and coastal areas if we had an El Niño STJ pattern instead with the +PNA -AO blocking forecast. Hopefully as we get further into January the Pacific Jet relaxes enough for a 4”+ or even better 6”+ NYC and coastal event. It’s still early so things can change. 
 

EPS Jan 6 to 13 forecast surface pressure anomalies 


 

Precipitation anomalies 

 

Can’t snow without the cold, just need the main trough axis a bit more west which is still very possible

 

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Can’t snow without the cold, just need the main trough axis a bit more west which is still very possible

 

Storm track is more important than average temperatures for NYC snowfall in January.  Since it can always snow even when it’s warm this time of year with the right storm track with the average temperatures most Januaries.The temperatures only matter on the day of the event along with the storm track. 

NYC January average temperatures and snowfall last 10 years

2024….37.0°….2.3”

2023….43.5°…T

2022….30.3°…15.3”

2021….34.8°…2.1”

2020….39.1°…2.3”

2019….32.5°…1.1”

2018….31.7°….11.2”

2017….38.0°…7.9”

2016….34.5°…27.9”

2015….29.9°…16.9”

 

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

my guess the 6-7th is a weaker wave that reinforces confluence for the 8-9th. ensembles really amplify the trough for that second window

The only real issue I see at least for any KU events is the lack of a southern stream/STJ involvement for phasing. As is typical for -ENSO, the STJ is weak and inactive. If you are looking for true phased bombs up the coast, that’s not what you want to see. That said, there is certainly still chances for northern branch shortwaves to amp and produce snowstorms if timed correctly with the blocking

[Allsnow]

43 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Can’t snow without the cold, just need the main trough axis a bit more west which is still very possible

 

Agreed, With the new climate we need the cold 

[SnowGoose69]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The only real issue I see at least for any KU events is the lack of a southern stream/STJ involvement for phasing. As is typical for -ENSO, the STJ is weak and inactive. If you are looking for true phased bombs up the coast, that’s not what you want to see. That said, there is certainly still chances for northern branch shortwaves to amp and produce snowstorms if timed correctly with the blocking

I posted in the SNE thread how if you just took the a trained monkey could forecast this winter by saying where was the last cold neutral or very weak La Nina to follow a decent El Nino.  That would be 80-81, 03-04 and 92-93 were warm neutral so you can basically throw them out.  So far if you remove the Xmas 80 cold outbreak this winter and the next 2-3 weeks look a heck of alot like 80-81.  It was pretty darn cold but could not snow at all.  the pattern completely broke down after 2/10 and torched.  It was not a Nina pattern though, it was just basically a raging zonal one

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I posted in the SNE thread how if you just took the a trained monkey could forecast this winter by saying where was the last cold neutral or very weak La Nina to follow a decent El Nino.  That would be 80-81, 03-04 and 92-93 were warm neutral so you can basically throw them out.  So far if you remove the Xmas 80 cold outbreak this winter and the next 2-3 weeks look a heck of alot like 80-81.  It was pretty darn cold but could not snow at all.

Yea, this is where the lack of a juiced southern stream hurts if you are looking for phased KU’s barreling up the coast. That’s one big ingredient that will be missing. The upcoming pattern is all northern stream driven, typical -ENSO

[Allsnow]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Storm track is more important than average temperatures for NYC snowfall in January.  Since it can always snow even when it’s warm this time of year with the right storm track with the average temperatures most Januaries.The temperatures only matter on the day of the event along with the storm track. 

NYC January average temperatures and snowfall last 10 years

2024….37.0°….2.3”

2023….43.5°…T

2022….30.3°…15.3”

2021….34.8°…2.1”

2020….39.1°…2.3”

2019….32.5°…1.1”

2018….31.7°….11.2”

2017….38.0°…7.9”

2016….34.5°…27.9”

2015….29.9°…16.9”

 

 

You have posted some great information the past few years on how warm our winters have become. I’m a firm believer with the new climate we need a cold airmass in place before anything else. 

[NEG NAO]

30 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I posted in the SNE thread how if you just took the a trained monkey could forecast this winter by saying where was the last cold neutral or very weak La Nina to follow a decent El Nino.  That would be 80-81, 03-04 and 92-93 were warm neutral so you can basically throw them out.  So far if you remove the Xmas 80 cold outbreak this winter and the next 2-3 weeks look a heck of alot like 80-81.  It was pretty darn cold but could not snow at all.  the pattern completely broke down after 2/10 and torched.  It was not a Nina pattern though, it was just basically a raging zonal one

               N D   J     F  M   Total

1980-81 T 2.8 8.0 T 8.6  19.4

[Dark Star]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Storm track is more important than average temperatures for NYC snowfall in January.  Since it can always snow even when it’s warm this time of year with the right storm track with the average temperatures most Januaries.The temperatures only matter on the day of the event along with the storm track. 

NYC January average temperatures and snowfall last 10 years

2024….37.0°….2.3”

2023….43.5°…T

2022….30.3°…15.3”

2021….34.8°…2.1”

2020….39.1°…2.3”

2019….32.5°…1.1”

2018….31.7°….11.2”

2017….38.0°…7.9”

2016….34.5°…27.9”

2015….29.9°…16.9”

 

 

 

[MJO812]

Maybe some light snow next Saturday on gfs

[MJO812]

Here comes the 9-10 on gfs lol

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Here comes the 9-10 on gfs lol

The 6th Storm isn't cutting as much if the storm is even for real this far out

[CooL]

What a historic pattern 

[MJO812]

Just now, CooL said:

What a historic pattern 

Can you say Blizzard for the 8th-9th on the gfs ? Wow.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Can you say Blizzard for the 8th-9th on the gfs ? Wow.

yeah if its real - nice to talk about this far out thats about it = patience is the key word right now

[CooL]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Can you say Blizzard for the 8th-9th on the gfs ? Wow.

anyone who thinks cold and dry or only northern stream is gonna bust. Massive NAO block within the arctic height field

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

yeah if its real - nice to talk about over 2 weeks out thats about it = patience is the key word right now

Definitely 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Definitely 

We will post the 0Z snow map too....its too bad all the models can't agree on individual storms this far out as they did with the coming cold blast Jan 2nd

[MJO812]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

We will post the 0Z snow map too....

Caution is required but everything is starting to line up for a favorable pattern which we haven't seen in  years.

[MJO812]

Gfs gets really cold after the huge snowstorm

 

 

[CooL]

I haven’t been this excited in a long time 

[Nibor]

It was a matter of time before one of the global OPs had a big solution like that. 

[SnoSki14]

GFS OP is how you deliver in this pattern 

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Can you say Blizzard for the 8th-9th on the gfs ? Wow.

The 1/8-9 wave seems to show the best potential. The second wave in these setups often has the best amplification and maybe the 1/6 wave can build confluence behind it to force a better track. I'm never a fan at our latitude of relying on SWFEs for anything which 1/6 looks more like. That one's more a setup for N PA to SNE and north.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

GFS OP is how you deliver in this pattern 

And the ensembles