TheClimateChanger Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I'd want to experience the 1780s for this and also for that volcanic eruption in Iceland that caused the mammoth winter of 1782-83 which I'm convinced was more snowy than any winter that has happened since. No snowfall measurements from that winter anywhere? The winter of 1797-1798 must have pretty solid as well. Fine sleighing conditions, no doubt. The Tidewater Region probably had more snow in this 10-day stretch than they've had in the entire 21st century. Excerpt from "Why the Weather?" by Charles Frankin Brooks (1924). Some more details: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 6 years ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: The winter of 1797-1798 must have pretty solid as well. Fine sleighing conditions, no doubt. The Tidewater Region probably had more snow in this 10-day stretch than they've had in the entire 21st century. Excerpt from "Why the Weather?" by Charles Frankin Brooks (1924). Some more details: 100 inches of snow in 10 days in Norfolk, Va? WOW ! and the revenge of the coastal in the second snow storm, 40 inches in Norfolk in one night and 0 inches 25 miles inland! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 6 hours ago, Snowshack said: Hope that doesnt greenlight another dumping of road salt 100% agree. Im looking forward to the rain to finally get rid of it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Parts of the Great Lakes region saw exceptional warmth today. Some highlights: Green Bay: 53° (old record: 42°, 1989) La Crosse: 58° (old record: 48°, 1890 and 1931) ***New January monthly record*** Madison: 57° (old record: 47°, 1974) Milwaukee: 56° (old record: 53°, 1988) Minneapolis: 52° (old record: 48°, 1879 and 1989) Prairie du Chien: 60° (old record: 52°, 1903) Rochester, MN: 56° (old record: 48°, 1919) Waupaca: 56° (old record: 47°, 1974) Some of this warm air will sweep into the Northeast tomorrow. As a result, January will end with a rebound in temperatures. New York City will see temperatures reach the lower and middle 40s. Farther south, Washington, D.C. could have a high in the middle or perhaps upper 50s. Rain will also develop. New York City and Philadelphia will likely see a general 0.25"-0.75" rainfall. Upstate New York State and northern New England could see snow and ice. January 2025 is on course to become New York City's coldest January since January 2022. January 2022 had a mean temperature of 30.3°. January 2022 was far snowier with 15.3" monthly snowfall in New York City vs. 2025's 3.0". In contrast, January 2024 (2.3") and January 2023 (Trace) saw even less snowfall than January 2025. In fact, five of the six past years have seen less snowfall in New York City than January 2025. The first few days of February will see cooler readings, but moderation will follow after the coming weekend. The AO is now positive and is expected to remain predominantly positive through at least the first week of February. As a result, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City area will be limited. Since 1950, just 2 of 19 (11%) of storms with an AO of +2.000 or above during January 15-February 15 saw 6" or more of snow in New York City. Opportunities for a 6" or above snowstorm could persist for parts of southern New England, including Boston, through the first week of February. There is substantial uncertainty concerning the AO following the first week of February. The spread among ensemble members is currently a remarkable 8 sigma. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around January 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was +11.83 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.425 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.0° (2.9° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 36 / 35 light rain - salt cleansing. Low 40s today. Overall look to ride near normal to slightly above in a back and forth caught on the line of the colder air to the north and much warmer to the south. Some stronger warmth on the 5-7 balanced out by colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Records: Highs: EWR: 64 (1947) NYC: 63 (1947) LGA: 61 (1974) JFK: 58 (1974) Lows: EWR: 1 (1948) NYC: -1 (1920) LGA: 2 (1948) JFK: 3 (2019) Historical: 1911 - Tamarack, CA, was without snow the first eight days of the month, but by the end of January had been buried under 390 inches of snow, a record monthly total for the U.S. (The Weather Channel) 1949 - The temperature at San Antonio, TX, plunged to a record low of one degree below zero. Helena MT reached 42 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum) 1950: Seattle, Washington experienced their coldest temperature on record with a reading of zero degrees. 1966 - A blizzard struck the northeastern U.S. When the storm came to an end, twenty inches of snow covered the ground at Washington D.C. (David Ludlum) 1979: A winter storm that started on the previous day and ended on this day spread 2 to 4 inches of rainfall in 24 hours over much of coastal Southern California and two inches of snow in Palm Springs. Snow fell heavily in Palm Springs, and 8 inches fell at Lancaster. All major interstates into Los Angeles were closed. Snow drifts shut down Interstate 10 on both sides of Palm Springs, isolating the city. 1982 - A snowstorm struck Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. Twenty-five inches of snow at Greenville IL, located east of Saint Louis, paralyzed the community. The storm left 4000 motorists stranded for two days. (David Ludlum) 1987 - A storm in the Pacific Northwest produced wind gusts to 85 mph in Oregon, and nearly two inches of rain in twelve hours in the Puget Sound area of Washington State. Ten inches of snow at Stampede Pass WA brought their total snow cover to 84 inches. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thirty-one cities in the central and northeastern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date, with many occurring during the early morning hours. Temperatures in western New York State reached the 60s early in the day. Strong northerly winds in the north central U.S. produced wind chill readings as cold as 60 degrees below zero in North Dakota. (National Weather Summary) 1989 - The barometric pressure at Norway, AK, reached 31.85 inches (1078.4 mb) establishing an all-time record for the North American Continent. The temperature at the time of the record was about 46 degrees below zero (The Weather Channel). Severe arctic cold began to invade the north central U.S. The temperature at Great Falls MT plunged 85 degrees in 36 hours. Valentine NE plummeted from a record high of 70 degrees to zero in just nine hours. Northwest winds gusted to 86 mph at Lander WY, and wind chill readings of 80 degrees below zero were reported in Montana. Sixty-four cities in the central U.S. reported record highs for the date as readings reached the 60s in Michigan and the 80s in Kansas. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - High winds in Montana on the 28th, gusting to 77 mph at Judith Gap, were followed by three days of snow. Heavy snow fell over northwest Montana, with up to 24 inches reported in the mountains. An avalanche covered the road near Essex with six feet of snow. Snow and high winds also plagued parts of the southwestern U.S. Winds gusted to 54 mph at Show Low AZ, and Flagstaff AZ was blanketed with eight inches of snow. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 The Blizzard of 1966 doppped 6.8 inches of snowfall at NYC Relatively less than other areas of the mid atlantic and north who measures 1 - 2ft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 The warmer ending to January pushed the local 7 station average up to 30.7° or a -1.8° departure. The last time all 7 stations finished below 30° in January was back in 2014. The most recent January that all 7 stations finished under 26° was back in 2004. Other Januaries averaging under 26° were 1994, 1982, 1981, and 1977. So while we have had a few slightly colder Januaries since the 15-16 super El Niño like 2022 and 2018, the coldest January temperatures and departures have been missing the area. EWR…31.1°…..-1.7° NYC...30.9°….-2.8° LGA….32.0°….-2.4° JFK….32.7°….-0.2° HPN…28.0°….-1.9° BDR…29.9°….-1.5° ISP…..30.1°……-1.8° AVG…30.7°…..-1.8° 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: The warmer ending to January pushed the local 7 station average up to 30.7° or a -1.8° departure. The last time all 7 stations finished below 30° in January was back in 2014. The most recent January that all 7 stations finished under 26° was back in 2004. Other Januaries averaging under 26° were 1994, 1982, 1981, and 1977. So while we have had a few slightly colder Januaries since the 15-16 super El Niño like 2022 and 2018, the coldest January temperatures and departures have been missing the area. EWR…31.1°…..-1.7° NYC...30.9°….-2.8° LGA….32.0°….-2.4° JFK….32.7°….-0.2° HPN…28.0°….-1.9° BDR…29.9°….-1.5° ISP…..30.1°……-1.8° AVG…30.7°…..-1.8° Great Lakes effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: The Blizzard of 1966 doppped 6.8 inches of snowfall at NYC Relatively less than other areas of the mid atlantic and north who measures 1 - 2ft. that was generally far snowier to our south (see Norfolk). we got our revenge in 1966-67, a truly historic winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The warmer ending to January pushed the local 7 station average up to 30.7° or a -1.8° departure. The last time all 7 stations finished below 30° in January was back in 2014. The most recent January that all 7 stations finished under 26° was back in 2004. Other Januaries averaging under 26° were 1994, 1982, 1981, and 1977. So while we have had a few slightly colder Januaries since the 15-16 super El Niño like 2022 and 2018, the coldest January temperatures and departures have been missing the area. EWR…31.1°…..-1.7° NYC...30.9°….-2.8° LGA….32.0°….-2.4° JFK….32.7°….-0.2° HPN…28.0°….-1.9° BDR…29.9°….-1.5° ISP…..30.1°……-1.8° AVG…30.7°…..-1.8° Chris, what was JFK's average in February 2015 and how far up the list of coldest months would it have been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 3 hours ago, Dark Star said: Great Lakes effect? Combined effects from climate change. The warmth in the Great Lakes plus Hudson Bay were the result of the record warmth in Eastern Canada. So when you have a strong 500 mb low east of New England circulating air from these relatively milder regions the end result is that the cold over the Northeast gets muted. The colder departures to our south this month tracked from the region west of Hudson Bay which was colder. Plus the extent of Arctic air across the Northern Hemisphere was at a record low this winter. So if we had the amount of cold that was available in past decades, Canada and the Northeast would have been much colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Combined effects from climate change. The warmth in the Great Lakes plus Hudson Bay were the result of the record warmth in Eastern Canada. So when you have a strong 500 mb low east of New England circulating air from these relatively milder regions the end result is that the cold over the Northeast gets muted. The colder departures to our south this month tracked from the region west of Hudson Bay which was colder. Plus the extent of Arctic air across the Northern Hemisphere was at a record low this winter. So if we had the amount of cold that was available in past decades, Canada and the Northeast would have been much colder. It makes you wonder if we will ever see winters like 80-81 or 81-82 or 83-84 or 84-85 ever again (let alone 76-77)? These weren't even winters with a lot of snow (near average snow in some of those), but they all had below zero arctic outbreaks. The reason I say this is because I feel like without the effects of climate change, this would have been an early 80s type of winter, not a lot of snow (maybe average) but it would have had a below zero or single digits arctic outbreak and January would have averaged in the mid 20s. We did have 2015-16 which shows it can still get below zero here, but those winters were colder overall too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 57 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Chris, what was JFK's average in February 2015 and how far up the list of coldest months would it have been? JFK: -10.1 (FEB 2015) monthly avg temp 24.5 JFK: -3.5(FEB 2014) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 3 minutes ago, SACRUS said: JFK: -10.1 (FEB 2015) monthly avg temp 24.5 JFK: -3.5(FEB 2014) Wow, I bet the last time before that JFK had a -10 month was January 1977, Tony? Or was it December 1989? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Wow, I bet the last time before that JFK had a -10 month was January 1977, Tony? Or was it December 1989? Could be, id have to check or if Blwave has a quick search it was -8.2 in Jan 2004 (24.6 monthly average temperature) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 January 2025 is concluding with a mean temperature of 31.2° (2.5° below normal). That is New York City's coldest January since January 2022. January 2022 had a mean temperature of 30.3°. January 2022 was far snowier with 15.3" monthly snowfall in New York City vs. 2025's 3.0". In contrast, January 2024 (2.3") and January 2023 (Trace) saw even less snowfall than January 2025. In fact, five of the six past years have seen less snowfall in New York City than January 2025. The first few days of February will see cooler readings, but moderation will follow after the coming weekend. Overall, February will likely wind up on the warmer side of normal. It will also likely be wetter than normal. The AO is now positive and is expected to remain predominantly positive through at least the first week of February. Since 1950, just 2 of 19 (11%) of storms with an AO of +2.000 or above during January 15-February 15 saw 6" or more of snow in New York City. In addition, the NAO is likely to remain at +1.000 or above through the first two weeks of February. Since 1950, just 1 of 18 (6%) of storms with an NAO of +0.900 or above saw 6" or more snow in New York City. That storm occurred with an AO of -1.769. As a result, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City area will likely be limited through the first two weeks of February. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around January 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was +17.29 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.448 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 4 hours ago, SACRUS said: Could be, id have to check or if Blwave has a quick search it was -8.2 in Jan 2004 (24.6 monthly average temperature) January 1977 had a -9.4° anomaly at JFK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: January 1977 had a -9.4° anomaly at JFK. and December 1989 Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: and December 1989 Don? 9.1 below normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: 9.1 below normal. These must have been the coldest months at JFK and only February 2015 was 10 degrees below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: These must have been the coldest months at JFK and only February 2015 was 10 degrees below normal. February 2015 had the second lowest monthly mean temperature. It also occurred during a warmer month and warmer climate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: February 2015 had the second lowest monthly mean temperature. It also occurred during a warmer month and warmer climate. Was January 1977 the coldest in terms of actual mean monthly temperatures, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 9 hours ago, LibertyBell said: It makes you wonder if we will ever see winters like 80-81 or 81-82 or 83-84 or 84-85 ever again (let alone 76-77)? These weren't even winters with a lot of snow (near average snow in some of those), but they all had below zero arctic outbreaks. The reason I say this is because I feel like without the effects of climate change, this would have been an early 80s type of winter, not a lot of snow (maybe average) but it would have had a below zero or single digits arctic outbreak and January would have averaged in the mid 20s. We did have 2015-16 which shows it can still get below zero here, but those winters were colder overall too. Maybe with -AMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Was January 1977 the coldest in terms of actual mean monthly temperatures, Don? Yes it was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Don, Was January 2925 precipitation in NYC the lowest on record or was the drizzle yesterday enough to prevent that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 2 hours ago, etudiant said: Don, Was January 2925 precipitation in NYC the lowest on record or was the drizzle yesterday enough to prevent that? wow a time traveler from the future! Does NYC even still exist in 2925? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 10 hours ago, STORMANLI said: Maybe with -AMO I like -AMO it's putting an end to all the flooding madness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 19 hours ago, LibertyBell said: It makes you wonder if we will ever see winters like 80-81 or 81-82 or 83-84 or 84-85 ever again (let alone 76-77)? These weren't even winters with a lot of snow (near average snow in some of those), but they all had below zero arctic outbreaks. The reason I say this is because I feel like without the effects of climate change, this would have been an early 80s type of winter, not a lot of snow (maybe average) but it would have had a below zero or single digits arctic outbreak and January would have averaged in the mid 20s. We did have 2015-16 which shows it can still get below zero here, but those winters were colder overall too. 1976-1977 was in a class by it self. The late 1970s was the last time the U.S had a top 10 coldest winter. The same for our area also. These days we need strong northerly flow to get closer to 0° like we saw in early February 2023. Back in the 70s to early 90s Canada and the Great Lakes we cold enough so NYC could get to -2° and Newark -8° on westerly flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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