January 2025

[LibertyBell]

56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These were some of the strongest westerlies since Janaury 1977. So this used to be a much colder pattern. Janaury 1977 was nearly 10° colder on average around the area than this month was. But at least we can brag that we got some version of the Jan 77 analog to repeat in a much warmer fashion.

How was January 1977 so cold on westerly downsloping winds? I thought NYC could only get below zero on northerly winds down the Hudson?

 

[anthonymm]

9 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

NYC

Jan 28, 2022 - 8.3 inches of snowfall

The last decent winter storm. I'm not expecting any more moderate to significant snowfall for the rest of this winter, with niña rearing its ugly head. Another sucky <10" winter in the cards.

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How was January 1977 so cold on westerly downsloping winds? I thought NYC could only get below zero on northerly winds down the Hudson?

 

Westerly flow downsloping winds were much colder in the 1970s than today. Canada was significantly colder back then than they were this month. Plus much of the Great Lakes were frozen over that winter. Not to mention a much larger cold pool across the entire Northern Hemisphere. So the broader source region and geographic extent of the cold is very important.

Notice that NYC didn’t get below 10° this month with the westerly flow. From the 1970s to early 1990s NYC could get to -2° with westerly flow. These days NYC needs northerly flow to get down closer to 0° like they did in February 2023 when they reached 3°. It’s no coincidence that February 2016 and January 2004 Arctic outbreaks near 0° around NYC were northerly flow events. 

This is why I posted early on that the Euro and EPS were way too cold this month here. Remember when the Euro had near 0° around NYC this month. The GFS had upper single digits which was closer to reality. 

The world was a much colder place in January 1977. So the -EPO +PNA -AO pattern like this month had a tremendous Northern Hemisphere cold pool to work with. That wasn’t the case this time around when the world  just experienced its warmest January on record. So these teleconnections were much warmer this month. 
 

 

[Stormlover74]

Rgem would be a nice soaker Friday .75 to 1". Unfortunately it doesn't look like the other models giving us .25"

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I think he's talking about the lakes causing higher night time lows for the east coast.

That is correct. 

[MJO812]

45 here

Yuck

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

45 here

Yuck

what? it's a great day, sunny too

45 and rain would be yuck

spring birds are out here already

I didn't know long island had such a variety of birds....

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem would be a nice soaker Friday .75 to 1". Unfortunately it doesn't look like the other models giving us .25"

it can wait another day, I hate this pest at the end of January.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Westerly flow downsloping winds were much colder in the 1970s than today. Canada was significantly colder back then than they were this month. Plus much of the Great Lakes were frozen over that winter. Not to mention a much larger cold pool across the entire Northern Hemisphere. So the broader source region and geographic extent of the cold is very important.

Notice that NYC didn’t get below 10° this month with the westerly flow. From the 1970s to early 1990s NYC could get to -2° with westerly flow. These days NYC needs northerly flow to get down closer to 0° like they did in February 2023 when they reached 3°. It’s no coincidence that February 2016 and January 2004 Arctic outbreaks near 0° around NYC were northerly flow events. 

This is why I posted early on that the Euro and EPS were way too cold this month here. Remember when the Euro had near 0° around NYC this month. The GFS had upper single digits which was closer to reality. 

The world was a much colder place in January 1977. So the -EPO +PNA -AO pattern like this month had a tremendous Northern Hemisphere cold pool to work with. That wasn’t the case this time around when the world  just experienced its warmest January on record. So these teleconnections were much warmer this month. 
 

 

I totally see it with our climate, it feels like spring now without much effort at all.  And the farther north you go, the greater the warm anomalies are.  Back in the 80s even if we had a mild winter we were usually guaranteed for at least 2 single digit arctic shots every winter.  And even a winter like 1984-85, which had a historic below zero arctic shot was a mild winter overall.  You just don't see that kind of extreme cold here anymore even in a below normal temperature pattern.

 

[MANDA]

20 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem would be a nice soaker Friday .75 to 1". Unfortunately it doesn't look like the other models giving us .25"

Hope we can get .25 - .50" out of this.  Guidance has been trending to the lighter side last few days.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, MANDA said:

Hope we can get .25 - .50" out of this.  Guidance has been trending to the lighter side last few days.

Yeah but it's heavy north and south of us and jumping around so I'm hoping it'll trend wetter again

[Brian5671]

up to 48 here-the remnants of the "snowpack" disappearing quickly with full sun

[SACRUS]

 

51 / 25 first 50 degree reading since New Year eve/day.    Rains Friday in the 050 - 0.75 range.  Overall near normal riding the barrier between the warmth and cold to our north into February.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 70 (2002)
NYC: 69 (2002)
LGA: 68 (2002)
JFK: 69 (2002)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (1977)
NYC: 0 (1873)
LGA: 2 (1977)
JFK: 3 (1977)

Historical:

 

1780 - On the coldest morning of a severe winter the mercury dipped to 16 degrees below zero at New York City, and reached 20 degrees below zero at Hartford CT. New York Harbor was frozen for five weeks, allowing a heavy cannon to be taken across the ice to fortify the British on Staten Island. (The Weather Channel)

1921 - A small but intense windstorm resulted in the "Great Olympic Blowdown" in the Pacific Northwest. Hurricane force winds, funneled along the mountains, downed vast expanses of Douglas fir trees, and the storm destroyed eight billion board feet of timber. Winds at North Head WA gusted to 113 mph. (David Ludlum)

 

1921: A small but intense windstorm resulted in the "Great Olympic Blowdown" in the Pacific Northwest. Hurricane-force winds funneled along the mountains downed vast expanses of Douglas fir trees, and the storm destroyed eight billion board feet of timber. Winds at North Head, WA, gusted to 113 mph. On January 31, 1921, the International News Services reported from Aberdeen, Washington, "It is reported that thousands of dollars in damage was done to buildings and storms in Aberdeen and Hoquiam. The wind velocity was estimated at from 125 to 150 miles an hour. Four steel smokestacks reaching almost 200 feet into the air were the first to collapse before the terrific onslaught of the gale. The giant chimneys crashed down on dwellings crushing them like houses of cardboard."

 

1947: On this date through the 30th, a fierce winter storm buried southern Wisconsin under two feet of snow. Strong northeasterly winds piled drifts up to 10 feet high in the Milwaukee area, shutting down the city for two days.

1983 - A series of Pacific coast storms finally came to an end. The storms, attributed in part to the ocean current, "El Nino," produced ocean swells 15 to 20 feet high which ravaged the beaches of southern California. Much of the damage was to homes of movies stars in the exclusive Malibu Colony. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A strong storm moving out of the Central Rockies spread snow across the north central states, with up to eight inches of snow in Wisconsin, and produced wind gusts to 64 mph at Goodland KS. A thunderstorm produced three inches of snow in forty-five minutes at Owing Mills MD. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Rain and snow were primarily confined to the northwestern U.S. An afternoon reading of 34 degrees at International Falls MN was a record high for the date. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Bitter cold air continued to pour into Alaska. At McGrath, temperature dipped to 63 degrees below zero. Strong winds blowing through the Alaska Range between Fairbanks and Anchorage produced a wind chill reading of 120 degrees below zero at Cantwell. (National Weather Summary)

1990 - Severe thunderstorms in the southeastern U.S. spawned a tornado which destroyed three mobile homes near Blythe GA injuring six persons. A fast moving cold front produced high winds in the western U.S. Winds along the coast of Oregon gusted to 65 mph at Portland, and high winds generated 22 to 26 foot seas which battered the coast. Winds near Reno NV gusted to 78 mph. High winds also buffeted the Central High Plains, with gusts to 94 mph reported at La Mesa CO. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2002 - A major three-day winter storm blasted parts of Kansas and Missouri. A catastrophic ice storm occurred south of the snow area, with two inches of ice and snow accumulating in the Kansas City, Missouri area. Thousands of trees were felled by the storm, blocking roads, felling utility lines, and causing fires. Two "Bicentennial Trees," estimated at being over 200 years old, were badly damaged from this storm. After the 31st, 325,000 people were reported without power in Kansas City alone.

 

 

2008 - A sharp cold front moved across Illinois during the day, producing a drastic temperature drop. Temperatures fell 20 to 40 degrees in just a couple of hours, with areas from Springfield, Illinois to St. Louis, Missouri seeing temperatures fall as much as 50 degrees between noon and 6 pm. Temperatures in the mid-60s in central Illinois at midday on the 29th had fallen to near zero by the next morning.

[psv88]

49 now. Beautiful outside 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

49 now. Beautiful outside 

Snowpack demolition day. 

[Dark Star]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Snowpack demolition day. 

January thaw historically was between January 17 through January 23rd.  Not that anybody is going to hold the weather to those specific dates.  

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Snowpack demolition day. 

Friday's rains will take care of the rest of it.

[the_other_guy]

Blizzard Conditions currently at Belleayre!

[donsutherland1]

Central Park has reached 50° for the first time since January 1st. The last time January had just two 50° days was in 2010. Last year, there were 11 such days in January.

[Stormlover74]

Wind is really whipping

[MJO812]

51

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I totally see it with our climate, it feels like spring now without much effort at all.  And the farther north you go, the greater the warm anomalies are.  Back in the 80s even if we had a mild winter we were usually guaranteed for at least 2 single digit arctic shots every winter.  And even a winter like 1984-85, which had a historic below zero arctic shot was a mild winter overall.  You just don't see that kind of extreme cold here anymore even in a below normal temperature pattern.

 

Yeah, JFK is up to 55° now. So they won’t be able to finish January below 32° like they did back in 2022. The last really cold January at JFK was in 2004. I can remember Reynolds Channel at the Long Beach bridge nearly frozen all the way across. 
 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	32.2	3
2024	36.0	0
2023	41.8	0
2022	30.3	0
2021	34.8	0
2020	38.7	0
2019	32.4	0
2018	30.2	0
2017	38.6	0
2016	34.6	0
2015	30.7	0
2014	28.6	0
2013	35.0	0
2012	37.2	0
2011	29.1	0
2010	32.1	0
2009	28.7	0
2008	35.3	0
2007	37.3	0
2006	39.1	0
2005	30.5	0
2004	24.6	0

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, JFK is up to 55° now. So they won’t be able to finish January below 32° like they did back in 2022. The last really cold January at JFK was in 2004. I can remember Reynolds Channel at the Long Beach bridge nearly frozen all the way across. 
 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	32.2	3
2024	36.0	0
2023	41.8	0
2022	30.3	0
2021	34.8	0
2020	38.7	0
2019	32.4	0
2018	30.2	0
2017	38.6	0
2016	34.6	0
2015	30.7	0
2014	28.6	0
2013	35.0	0
2012	37.2	0
2011	29.1	0
2010	32.1	0
2009	28.7	0
2008	35.3	0
2007	37.3	0
2006	39.1	0
2005	30.5	0
2004	24.6	0

If this was July, JFK would be over 100 degrees with a westerly downsloping wind and low humidity, my absolute favorite kind of summer day.

 

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, JFK is up to 55° now. So they won’t be able to finish January below 32° like they did back in 2022. The last really cold January at JFK was in 2004. I can remember Reynolds Channel at the Long Beach bridge nearly frozen all the way across. 
 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	32.2	3
2024	36.0	0
2023	41.8	0
2022	30.3	0
2021	34.8	0
2020	38.7	0
2019	32.4	0
2018	30.2	0
2017	38.6	0
2016	34.6	0
2015	30.7	0
2014	28.6	0
2013	35.0	0
2012	37.2	0
2011	29.1	0
2010	32.1	0
2009	28.7	0
2008	35.3	0
2007	37.3	0
2006	39.1	0
2005	30.5	0
2004	24.6	0

Back in the early 00s, how many winters in a row did JFK have a January mean below 32.0 Chris?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Central Park has reached 50° for the first time since January 1st. The last time January had just two 50° days was in 2010. Last year, there were 11 such days in January.

55 at JFK! I love these kinds of days in the summer, JFK would reach 100 before anyone else.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Friday's rains will take care of the rest of it.

It didn't wait, it's all gone.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

49 now. Beautiful outside 

headed for upper 50s here :-)

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 70 (2002)
NYC: 69 (2002)
LGA: 68 (2002)
JFK: 69 (2002)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (1977)
NYC: 0 (1873)
LGA: 2 (1977)
JFK: 3 (1977)

Historical:

 

1780 - On the coldest morning of a severe winter the mercury dipped to 16 degrees below zero at New York City, and reached 20 degrees below zero at Hartford CT. New York Harbor was frozen for five weeks, allowing a heavy cannon to be taken across the ice to fortify the British on Staten Island. (The Weather Channel)

1921 - A small but intense windstorm resulted in the "Great Olympic Blowdown" in the Pacific Northwest. Hurricane force winds, funneled along the mountains, downed vast expanses of Douglas fir trees, and the storm destroyed eight billion board feet of timber. Winds at North Head WA gusted to 113 mph. (David Ludlum)

 

1921: A small but intense windstorm resulted in the "Great Olympic Blowdown" in the Pacific Northwest. Hurricane-force winds funneled along the mountains downed vast expanses of Douglas fir trees, and the storm destroyed eight billion board feet of timber. Winds at North Head, WA, gusted to 113 mph. On January 31, 1921, the International News Services reported from Aberdeen, Washington, "It is reported that thousands of dollars in damage was done to buildings and storms in Aberdeen and Hoquiam. The wind velocity was estimated at from 125 to 150 miles an hour. Four steel smokestacks reaching almost 200 feet into the air were the first to collapse before the terrific onslaught of the gale. The giant chimneys crashed down on dwellings crushing them like houses of cardboard."

 

1947: On this date through the 30th, a fierce winter storm buried southern Wisconsin under two feet of snow. Strong northeasterly winds piled drifts up to 10 feet high in the Milwaukee area, shutting down the city for two days.

1983 - A series of Pacific coast storms finally came to an end. The storms, attributed in part to the ocean current, "El Nino," produced ocean swells 15 to 20 feet high which ravaged the beaches of southern California. Much of the damage was to homes of movies stars in the exclusive Malibu Colony. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A strong storm moving out of the Central Rockies spread snow across the north central states, with up to eight inches of snow in Wisconsin, and produced wind gusts to 64 mph at Goodland KS. A thunderstorm produced three inches of snow in forty-five minutes at Owing Mills MD. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Rain and snow were primarily confined to the northwestern U.S. An afternoon reading of 34 degrees at International Falls MN was a record high for the date. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Bitter cold air continued to pour into Alaska. At McGrath, temperature dipped to 63 degrees below zero. Strong winds blowing through the Alaska Range between Fairbanks and Anchorage produced a wind chill reading of 120 degrees below zero at Cantwell. (National Weather Summary)

1990 - Severe thunderstorms in the southeastern U.S. spawned a tornado which destroyed three mobile homes near Blythe GA injuring six persons. A fast moving cold front produced high winds in the western U.S. Winds along the coast of Oregon gusted to 65 mph at Portland, and high winds generated 22 to 26 foot seas which battered the coast. Winds near Reno NV gusted to 78 mph. High winds also buffeted the Central High Plains, with gusts to 94 mph reported at La Mesa CO. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2002 - A major three-day winter storm blasted parts of Kansas and Missouri. A catastrophic ice storm occurred south of the snow area, with two inches of ice and snow accumulating in the Kansas City, Missouri area. Thousands of trees were felled by the storm, blocking roads, felling utility lines, and causing fires. Two "Bicentennial Trees," estimated at being over 200 years old, were badly damaged from this storm. After the 31st, 325,000 people were reported without power in Kansas City alone.

 

 

2008 - A sharp cold front moved across Illinois during the day, producing a drastic temperature drop. Temperatures fell 20 to 40 degrees in just a couple of hours, with areas from Springfield, Illinois to St. Louis, Missouri seeing temperatures fall as much as 50 degrees between noon and 6 pm. Temperatures in the mid-60s in central Illinois at midday on the 29th had fallen to near zero by the next morning.

wild....

 

 

1780 - On the coldest morning of a severe winter the mercury dipped to 16 degrees below zero at New York City, and reached 20 degrees below zero at Hartford CT. New York Harbor was frozen for five weeks, allowing a heavy cannon to be taken across the ice to fortify the British on Staten Island. (The Weather Channel)

[TJW014]

Peak gust of 53 mph on the bayfront here