January 2025

[mahk_webstah]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

February 5th through 20th in 1979 was the greatest 16 day stretch of cold and snow on record at ISP. 
 

Data for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1979-02-05	32	15	0.0	0
1979-02-06	25	13	0.0	0
1979-02-07	22	13	6.5	0
1979-02-08	30	17	0.3	7
1979-02-09	19	8	0.0	6
1979-02-10	15	-1	0.0	5
1979-02-11	11	-2	0.0	4
1979-02-12	15	-6	0.9	2
1979-02-13	12	5	T	3
1979-02-14	13	-1	0.0	3
1979-02-15	20	9	T	2
1979-02-16	18	8	0.2	1
1979-02-17	10	-0	0.0	1
1979-02-18	14	-2	0.0	1
1979-02-19	24	10	8.8	2
1979-02-20	32	8	0.0	10

 

I remember this. As a kid in Dover, Delaware. It culminated in PD one. I remember how cold it was, how the lake near my house was frozen and how dry and powdery the snow was that started falling the night before the main part of that blizzard

[steve392]

First time in a long time the hackensack river frozen over shore to shore in hackensack, nj.  Thick pieces too along the banks.  

Lake by my house frozen solid. Been years since this happened. 

[Allsnow]

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

February 5th through 20th in 1979 was the greatest 16 day stretch of cold and snow on record at ISP. 
 

Data for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1979-02-05	32	15	0.0	0
1979-02-06	25	13	0.0	0
1979-02-07	22	13	6.5	0
1979-02-08	30	17	0.3	7
1979-02-09	19	8	0.0	6
1979-02-10	15	-1	0.0	5
1979-02-11	11	-2	0.0	4
1979-02-12	15	-6	0.9	2
1979-02-13	12	5	T	3
1979-02-14	13	-1	0.0	3
1979-02-15	20	9	T	2
1979-02-16	18	8	0.2	1
1979-02-17	10	-0	0.0	1
1979-02-18	14	-2	0.0	1
1979-02-19	24	10	8.8	2
1979-02-20	32	8	0.0	10

 

we also had a big blizzard on the south shore in February 1979.  There was a sharp cut off and there was much less snow to our north.  We had around 14 inches in that one.

 

[LoboLeader1]

Low of 15 here last nite, currrently 30 as of 2PM. I have not used the snowblower here in the past 2 winters, I think that streak is going to continue into next month giving the pitiful winter here thus far.

[jconsor]

3 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Your memory is failing you.  It occurred during a work day during a LIRR strike with no train service.  The traffic chaos on LI was epic.  There might not have been any school closings because the snow started around 9am.  The afternoon change to rain east of about Rt 135 did little to help.

The Jan 22, 1987 snowstorm you are referring to is one of the main events that got me interested in weather.  I grew up on the North Shore of LI (Roslyn) and I recall the forecast being for an inch or two, then quickly changing to rain.  Instead snow piled up at 1-2" per hour and there was never a change to plain rain, just a little freezing drizzle at the end. 

As Ed said, it was traffic chaos.  I was in second grade at the time and we were stuck at school for about 6 hours!  The plows couldn't keep up with the snow and the hills on the roads in/around Roslyn made things even worse.

 

[bluewave]

Winter so far across the area from December 1st through January 23rd is averaging -1.4°.

New Brunswick…..-1.9….32.8°

EWR….-1.1….34.7°

NYC….-2.1°…34.7°

LGA…..-2.1°…35.6°

JFK…..+0.1°…36.2°

HPN….-1.2°….31.7°

BDR….-1.7°…..33.0°

ISP……-1.3°….33.7°

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Winter so far across the area from December 1st through January 23rd is averaging -1.4°.

New Brunswick…..-1.9….32.8°

EWR….-1.1….34.7°

NYC….-2.1°…34.7°

LGA…..-2.1°…35.6°

JFK…..+0.1°…36.2°

HPN….-1.2°….31.7°

BDR….-1.7°…..33.0°

ISP……-1.3°….33.7°

it's actually surprising how much warmer JFK is, is this because of the predominantly westerly downsloping wind? If we had this kind of scenario in the summer, JFK would be baking.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, jconsor said:

The Jan 22, 1987 snowstorm you are referring to is one of the main events that got me interested in weather.  I grew up on the North Shore of LI (Roslyn) and I recall the forecast being for an inch or two, then quickly changing to rain.  Instead snow piled up at 1-2" per hour and there was never a change to plain rain, just a little freezing drizzle at the end. 

As Ed said, it was traffic chaos.  I was in second grade at the time and we were stuck at school for about 6 hours!  The plows couldn't keep up with the snow and the hills on the roads in/around Roslyn made things even worse.

 

Roslyn's hills are difficult to navigate even in the rain, let alone this kind of weather.

I had never seen those hills (or the north shore at all) before college, it actually feels like climbing a mountain.

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

we also had a big blizzard on the south shore in February 1979.  There was a sharp cut off and there was much less snow to our north.  We had around 14 inches in that one.

 

We had 7.3” on the north shore at East Northport where I lived at the time during PD 1.  Large parts of LI Sound were frozen over at the time so that source of moisture was not readily available.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

We had 7.3” on the north shore at East Northport where I lived at the time during PD 1.  Large parts of LI Sound were frozen over at the time so that source of moisture was not readily available.

otherwise you would have gotten a ton of sound effect/enhanced snow, similar to what happened in December 1995 when LGA received 14 inches of snow and Central Park only got 8 inches.

 

[EWR757]

One thing I've noticed about the ECMWF AI (AIFS) is that the deterministic AI model is sometimes at the extreme of the ensemble output (for example, temperature highlighted in red towards the end of the forecast period).  I don't remember this often occurring with the operational numerical model.

Also, what are the small red numbers highlighted above the precipitation amount forecast in the last few days of the output?

 

15 degree minimum temperature difference today between me at 420 ft. vs. KSMQ at 105 ft. and 4 miles WNW this morning.  A very steep inversion.

[donsutherland1]

Five photos of the Hudson River from Kingsland Point Park in Sleepy Hollow, NY:

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

we also had a big blizzard on the south shore in February 1979.  There was a sharp cut off and there was much less snow to our north.  We had around 14 inches in that one.

 

Yeah, 1978-1979 was the coldest winter since 1895 across the CONUS.

Contiguous U.S. Average Temperature

December-February

December 1978-February 1979 26.62°F 1 -5.61°F

December 1935-February 1936 27.78°F 2 -4.45°F

December 1898-February 1899 27.95°F 3 -4.28°F

December 1909-February 1910 28.17°F 4 -4.06°F

December 1904-February 1905 28.69°F 5 -3.54°F

December 1928-February 1929 28.73°F 6 -3.50°F

December 1977-February 1978 29.04°F 7 -3.19°F

December 1916-February 1917 29.10°F 8 -3.13°F

December 1917-February 1918 29.11°F 9 -3.12°F

December 1911-February 1912 29.35°F 10 -2.88°F

[donsutherland1]

It will turn milder tomorrow. The thermometer could reach the upper 30s and perhaps 40°. The milder weather will likely continue through Tuesday before another cold front arrives possibly with some snow flurries or a brief period of light snow. Behind the front, it will turn noticeably colder. However, the cold won't be as sharp as it was earlier this week.

In addition, with little or no precipitation expected through the remainder of January, several cities could approach or set records for their driest January on record.

Precipitation amounts through January 25th and January Records:

Islip: 0.37" (Record: 0.51", 1970)
New York City-Central Park: 0.45" (Record: 0.58", 1981)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 0.35" (Record: 0.51", 1981)
Newark: 0.34" (Record: 0.45", 1981)
Philadelphia: 0.39" (Record: 0.45", 1955)
Poughkeepsie: 0.12" (Record: 0.43", 1970)
White Plains: 0.18" (Record: 0.44", 1955)

The AO is now positive and is expected to remain predominantly positive through at least the first week of February. As a result, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City area will be limited. Since 1950, just 2 of 19 (11%) of storms with an AO of +2.000 or above during January 15-February 15 saw 6" or more of snow in New York City. Opportunities for a 6" or above snowstorm could persist for parts of southern New England, including Boston, through January.   

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +9.33 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.186 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 29.7° (4.2° below normal).

 

[Nibor]

22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Five photos of the Hudson River from Kingsland Point Park in Sleepy Hollow, NY:

Wow! I’ve seen patches of ice around some of the old pier pillars in the Hudson down at the Lackawanna station in Hoboken. 

[EWR757]

Beautiful photos of the ice on the Hudson River.  It hasn't been that cold in a long time.  Have you seen any ice breakers in the channel?

[donsutherland1]

Just now, EWR757 said:

Beautiful photos of the ice on the Hudson River.  It hasn't been that cold in a long time.  Have you seen any ice breakers in the channel?

I didn’t see any while I was there.

[Tatamy]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

otherwise you would have gotten a ton of sound effect/enhanced snow, similar to what happened in December 1995 when LGA received 14 inches of snow and Central Park only got 8 inches.

 

Not necessarily.  There was a lot of confluence over NE as part of the synoptic setup.  It was known at the time that the greatest snow amounts with PD 1 would be south and west of the city.

[anthonymm]

On 1/24/2025 at 11:01 AM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Not sure what area you're referring to but most of the area not much north and west of the city saw a widespread 5-8 inches four days ago. It's a big area. 

I mean those who live close to the I95 (urbanites). Been an awful pattern for the coastal northeast.

[tdp146]

Great deep winter day. Took the wife and 2 year old out looking for seals here along the south shore. We don’t see a single damn one. But my 2 year old thinks seagulls are hilarious for some reason. And we so tons of seagulls. So today was a win. 

[cleetussnow]

7 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

Its not cold.

 

[RU848789]

17 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

cold dry air also aids in the transmission of viruses and it's not easy on the lungs regardless.

What actually goes on is that cold air has been shown to limit the performance of the mucosal immunity system, i.e., the nose and mouth, where most viruses first make their entry into people and this was only truly demonstrated (in vitro - not in vivo yet, from what I've read) over the last 2-3 years.  Lower humidity (which we see in the winter, especially indoors with forced air heat) can also enhance viral transmission due to expelled viral particles (from coughs, sneezes and even breathing) remaining suspended in the air longer.  And, of course, there's still one of the primary drivers for more viral infections in winter: people simply being together in close quarters more often for longer periods, which increases the "dose" of viral particles that someone could be exposed to from an infected person, even prior to them having symptoms (which was a major issue for COVID).  

https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/mayo-clinic-minute-why-do-people-get-sick-with-viruses-in-the-winter/

[NEG NAO]

No January thaw this year .............

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, RU848789 said:

What actually goes on is that cold air has been shown to limit the performance of the mucosal immunity system, i.e., the nose and mouth, where most viruses first make their entry into people and this was only truly demonstrated (in vitro - not in vivo yet, from what I've read) over the last 2-3 years.  Lower humidity (which we see in the winter, especially indoors with forced air heat) can also enhance viral transmission due to expelled viral particles (from coughs, sneezes and even breathing) remaining suspended in the air longer.  And, of course, there's still one of the primary drivers for more viral infections in winter: people simply being together in close quarters more often for longer periods, which increases the "dose" of viral particles that someone could be exposed to from an infected person, even prior to them having symptoms (which was a major issue for COVID).  

https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/mayo-clinic-minute-why-do-people-get-sick-with-viruses-in-the-winter/

right, the viral particles are suspended in air longer when the air is dry and cold..  I didn't know about the mucosal immunity system but that makes a lot of sense since that's typically the interface boundary between ourselves and what's floating around in the air.

 

what I also find interesting is that for bacterial infections, the opposite is often true-- they spread faster in warm and humid air.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

No January thaw this year .............

well the Sunday through Wednesday period can be considered a thaw, we'll be in the lower 50s by Wednesday.  But the real thaw will be in February.

 

Our winters are usually better when we have the thaw in January and reload rather than February anyway.

 

[ForestHillWx]

28 here, 20 at the base of the hill. These low temp inversions have been interesting to track this month. 

[donsutherland1]

The week ahead:

Much colder in New England than the Mid-Atlantic region; much better prospects for some snowfall in New England.

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it's actually surprising how much warmer JFK is, is this because of the predominantly westerly downsloping wind? If we had this kind of scenario in the summer, JFK would be baking.

It could be. The strong winds this month through the Great Lakes have kept the minimum at JFK a little warmer than December was. It will be interesting to see if this is the first winter since 2000 that the coldest low of winter happened in December. 
 

Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2024-2025	12	13	M	12
2023-2024	25	18	21	18
2022-2023	7	29	4	4
2021-2022	24	9	15	9
2020-2021	18	15	17	15
2019-2020	17	19	14	14
2018-2019	24	3	11	3
2017-2018	9	4	16	4
2016-2017	19	13	19	13
2015-2016	34	12	1	1
2014-2015	26	8	3	3
2013-2014	20	3	11	3
2012-2013	28	12	17	12
2011-2012	21	13	21	13
2010-2011	19	6	16	6
2009-2010	16	14	16	14
2008-2009	14	7	12	7
2007-2008	20	14	11	11
2006-2007	19	9	9	9
2005-2006	15	14	15	14
2004-2005	12	6	16	6
2003-2004	21	1	14	1
2002-2003	18	7	9	7
2001-2002	21	22	19	19
2000-2001	14	15	16	14

[SACRUS]

 

30 / 19 clouds over a portion of the region.  Warmer today (40s) and lasting through Wednesday, perhaps some 50 or better readings on Wed (first since New years eve/day).   A brief colder return 30th - 31.   Overall looking near to warmer than normal through the first week of Feb, turning wetter by the open of next month - currently looking like the cold is nearby by focussed north and west and along with the frozen precip chances - as of now.