January 2025

[MJO812]

Just now, the_other_guy said:

Return to cold? Doesnt it have to get warm first? 

Enjoy the winter guys…

Never saw so much hysterics in a cold January with water ways iced over and snow on the ground

We usually hope the cold comes during the winter but this winter has been a true winter with cold. Just need the snow.

[weatherpruf]

5 hours ago, Dark Star said:

I've been using a combination of neosporin (including on my thumbnails) and Gold Bond Eczema Relief on my hands.  I can't say what to use if you are bleeding though.  That is severe.  I've been sporadically massaging my dog's pads with some Gold Bond as well.  

The cracked fingers are making my wife miserable; I've been using corticosteroids on mine, with some success. 

[weatherpruf]

59 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

We've got two months left. The mjo should get to phase 8 by the end of February. That's plenty of time to get another snow event. 

Was Walt really nervous winter was over?

We have realistically about a month and change. There's time, but not a lot. Never is.

[wishcast_hater]

I do miss the days of when we got snowfall on top of snowfall and you can actually see the layers when you cut open the snowpack. I am anjoying the winter weather and everything looks great in my neck of the woods with the snow on the ground. Rather that than bare brown nothingness. 

[MJO812]

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

The cracked fingers are making my wife miserable; I've been using corticosteroids on mine, with some success. 

try. Working Hands

[MJO812]

Further south on the gfs with the clipper

[MJO812]

This was the 6z gfs AI. 12z didn't come out yet. 

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Return to cold? Doesnt it have to get warm first? 

Enjoy the winter guys…

Never saw so much hysterics in a cold January with water ways iced over and snow on the ground

its not even cold.  So they say.

[donsutherland1]

The temperature topped out at 33° in New York City. Temperatures will top out near or just above 30° in New York City tomorrow. It will then turn milder on Sunday. The thermometer could reach the upper 30s on Sunday. The milder weather will likely continue through Tuesday before another cold front arrives possibly with some snow flurries or a brief period of light snow. Behind the front, it will turn noticeably colder. However, the cold won't be as sharp as it was earlier this week.

In addition, with little or no precipitation expected through the remainder of January, several cities could approach or set records for their driest January on record.

Precipitation amounts through January 24th and January Records:

Islip: 0.37" (Record: 0.51", 1970)
New York City-Central Park: 0.45" (Record: 0.58", 1981)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 0.35" (Record: 0.51", 1981)
Newark: 0.34" (Record: 0.45", 1981)
Philadelphia: 0.39" (Record: 0.45", 1955)
Poughkeepsie: 0.12" (Record: 0.43", 1970)
White Plains: 0.18" (Record: 0.44", 1955)

The AO is now positive and is expected to remain predominantly positive through at least the first week of February. As a result, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City area will be limited. Since 1950, just 2 of 19 (11%) of storms with an AO of +2.000 or above during January 15-February 15 saw 6" or more of snow in New York City. Opportunities for a 6" or above snowstorm could persist for parts of southern New England, including Boston, through January.   

A sustained milder period could develop during or after the first week of February.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +9.33 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.411 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 29.5° (4.4° below normal).

 

[Cfa]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, everything lined up perfectly for a below 0°reading in NYC on 2-14-16. Record blocking north of Alaska driving the core of the cold and Arctic high pressure down at a perfect angle. Didn’t matter that it was one of the warmest winters on record or how much UHI there was. We couldn’t even get to or below 0° in NYC during the much colder winters in 13-14 or 14-15. Here at HVN some of our coldest readings have occurred in recent years on strong northerly flow events. Even though 22-23 was another top warmest winter, we still were able to go below 0° here like in 2016. So shorter Arctic outbreaks are still very possible even if we haven’t had a top 10 coldest winter month since February 2015 and top 10 coldest winter since the 1970s. 

 

Coldest temperatures at HVN since 47-48

 Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1947-1948	-8	31
2	1960-1961	-7	0
3	2015-2016	-6	0
-	1956-1957	-6	0
4	1967-1968	-5	0
5	2008-2009	-4	0
-	1962-1963	-4	0
6	2022-2023	-3	0
-	2014-2015	-3	0
-	2003-2004	-3	0
-	1966-1967	-3	0
-	1948-1949	-3	0

 

 

Climatological Data for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - February 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	1314	762	-	-	774	0	0.67
Average	46.9	27.2	37.1	5.1	-	-	-
Normal	40.2	23.9	32.0	-	923	0
2023-02-01	37	27	32.0	1.8	33	0	T
2023-02-02	40	20	30.0	-0.3	35	0	0.00
2023-02-03	39	3	21.0	-9.4	44	0	T
2023-02-04	30	-3	13.5	-17.0	51	0	0.00
2023-02-05	43	29	36.0	5.4	29	0	0.00
2023-02-06	56	27	41.5	10.8	23	0	0.00
2023-02-07	41	26	33.5	2.7	31	0	0.07
2023-02-08	53	29	41.0	10.1	24	0	0.00
2023-02-09	52	25	38.5	7.4	26	0	0.00
2023-02-10	62	35	48.5	17.3	16	0	0.00
2023-02-11	47	27	37.0	5.7	28	0	0.00
2023-02-12	47	25	36.0	4.5	29	0	0.00
2023-02-13	54	38	46.0	14.4	19	0	0.01
2023-02-14	55	32	43.5	11.7	21	0	0.00
2023-02-15	58	33	45.5	13.5	19	0	0.00
2023-02-16	68	47	57.5	25.4	7	0	0.03
2023-02-17	56	31	43.5	11.2	21	0	0.21
2023-02-18	42	27	34.5	2.0	30	0	0.00
2023-02-19	48	31	39.5	6.8	25	0	0.00
2023-02-20	58	41	49.5	16.6	15	0	0.00
2023-02-21	48	36	42.0	8.9	23	0	T
2023-02-22	44	27	35.5	2.3	29	0	0.05
2023-02-23	41	36	38.5	5.1	26	0	0.05
2023-02-24	44	24	34.0	0.4	31	0	0.02
2023-02-25	30	19	24.5	-9.3	40	0	0.03
2023-02-26	42	17	29.5	-4.6	35	0	0.00
2023-02-27	42	22	32.0	-2.3	33	0	0.06
2023-02-28	37	31	34.0	-0.5	31	0	0.14

When I tell people that I’ve never experienced subzero temperatures they think I’m lying because “New York gets cold”.

[BoulderWX]

Just got back after a week away and there is still a lot of snow and it’s beautiful. I don’t think I’ve ever seen people complain as much for no reason as I have on this forum. It’s winter. It’s cold. There is snow. Relax!

[SACRUS]

 

Great forecast and news for So California

 

[Monty]

What I think we are seeing on this board are two groups of people- those who long for the glory days of KUs ten years ago and those who are just happy to be better than the morass of the last two winters. I'm much more in the latter camp. I'd be interested to see if there's an age or even political affiliation correlation to which camp you fall into. 

[steve392]

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

try. Working Hands

Best stuff for cracked skin! 

[IrishRob17]

Brush on krazy glue is the best for the tiny cuts on hands, been using it for many years. Helps with larger cuts too, a couple times I probably I could've used a stitcher two but nah, brush on krazy glue did the trick. Might finally get above freezing on Sunday here. 

[cleetussnow]

6 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Brush on krazy glue is the best for the tiny cuts on hands, been using it for many years. Helps with larger cuts too, a couple times I probably I could've used a stitcher two but nah, brush on krazy glue did the trick. 

Yeah its been used as stitches forever.  They used it in ‘nam.  Liquid skin is a brand - same stuff.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

a different climate up there, remember we are subtropical ;-) plus we have our driest January on record

The dryness is getting annoying, and dangerous too. We need precip. 

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The dryness is getting annoying, and dangerous too. We need precip. 

Wonder if all the salt dust affects people's breathing or asthma/COPD. 

[gravitylover]

5 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Wonder if all the salt dust affects people's breathing or asthma/COPD. 

In the car on the highway I have to use the AC on recirculate or I can taste it after a few minutes. If your cabin air filter is in good shape it makes a huge difference. If I lived in a main road I'd have to have good filters at home.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Wonder if all the salt dust affects people's breathing or asthma/COPD. 

cold dry air also aids in the transmission of viruses and it's not easy on the lungs regardless.

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The temperature topped out at 33° in New York City. Temperatures will top out near or just above 30° in New York City tomorrow. It will then turn milder on Sunday. The thermometer could reach the upper 30s on Sunday. The milder weather will likely continue through Tuesday before another cold front arrives possibly with some snow flurries or a brief period of light snow. Behind the front, it will turn noticeably colder. However, the cold won't be as sharp as it was earlier this week.

In addition, with little or no precipitation expected through the remainder of January, several cities could approach or set records for their driest January on record.

Precipitation amounts through January 24th and January Records:

Islip: 0.37" (Record: 0.51", 1970)
New York City-Central Park: 0.45" (Record: 0.58", 1981)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 0.35" (Record: 0.51", 1981)
Newark: 0.34" (Record: 0.45", 1981)
Philadelphia: 0.39" (Record: 0.45", 1955)
Poughkeepsie: 0.12" (Record: 0.43", 1970)
White Plains: 0.18" (Record: 0.44", 1955)

The AO is now positive and is expected to remain predominantly positive through at least the first week of February. As a result, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City area will be limited. Since 1950, just 2 of 19 (11%) of storms with an AO of +2.000 or above during January 15-February 15 saw 6" or more of snow in New York City. Opportunities for a 6" or above snowstorm could persist for parts of southern New England, including Boston, through January.   

A sustained milder period could develop during or after the first week of February.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +9.33 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.411 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 29.5° (4.4° below normal).

 

Don is JFK having their driest January on record too? First October (driest month on record and many had 0 precip that month) and now the driest January on record.

[BxEngine]

Another single digit night with snow on the ground. Cant be an F here. At least comparatively speaking.

[ForestHillWx]

Looks like a 10 degree spread here from top of the hill at 12, to the pit in Gladstone at 2. 

[bluewave]

This is our first January with a -10 in West Virginia and a +7 in Northern Maine.

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don is JFK having their driest January on record too? First October (driest month on record and many had 0 precip that month) and now the driest January on record.

No. It’s above its record.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

No. It’s above its record.

wow, they had a drier one than this? which year?

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is our first January with a -10 in West Virginia and a +7 in Northern Maine.

 

but isn't this part of the new climate pattern with warmer temperatures further north (because of the warming arctic, the farther north you go the faster the warming is?)

 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

but isn't this part of the new climate pattern with warmer temperatures further north (because of the warming arctic, the farther north you go the faster the warming is?)

 

While that has been the case, this is a very extreme example of it. 
 

Climatological Data for VAN BUREN 2, ME - January 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	545	193	-	-	1184	0	1.22	8.3	-
Average	22.7	8.0	15.4	7.5	-	-	-	-	5.0
Normal	19.3	-3.5	7.9	-	1371	0	2.27	19.1
2025-01-01	42	27	34.5	23.6	30	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-01-02	39	30	34.5	23.9	30	0	0.31	0.5	0
2025-01-03	34	20	27.0	16.8	38	0	0.12	0.5	1
2025-01-04	20	11	15.5	5.6	49	0	0.09	0.8	2
2025-01-05	13	1	7.0	-2.6	58	0	T	T	2
2025-01-06	9	1	5.0	-4.3	60	0	0.00	0.0	2
2025-01-07	16	9	12.5	3.5	52	0	T	T	2
2025-01-08	25	15	20.0	11.2	45	0	0.05	1.7	4
2025-01-09	26	18	22.0	13.5	43	0	0.32	4.0	8
2025-01-10	33	25	29.0	20.8	36	0	0.00	0.0	8
2025-01-11	31	16	23.5	15.5	41	0	0.00	0.0	8
2025-01-12	25	18	21.5	13.8	43	0	0.00	0.0	8
2025-01-13	22	17	19.5	12.0	45	0	0.07	0.3	7
2025-01-14	21	10	15.5	8.2	49	0	0.07	0.5	7
2025-01-15	23	11	17.0	9.9	48	0	T	T	8
2025-01-16	18	13	15.5	8.6	49	0	T	T	7
2025-01-17	19	-2	8.5	1.8	56	0	0.00	0.0	7
2025-01-18	22	2	12.0	5.5	53	0	0.00	0.0	7
2025-01-19	37	16	26.5	20.1	38	0	0.19	0.0	6
2025-01-20	32	8	20.0	13.8	45	0	T	T	5
2025-01-21	9	-20	-5.5	-11.6	70	0	0.00	0.0	5
2025-01-22	8	-21	-6.5	-12.5	71	0	0.00	0.0	5
2025-01-23	9	-21	-6.0	-11.9	71	0	0.00	0.0	5
2025-01-24	12	-11	0.5	-5.3	64	0	T	T	6
2025-01-25	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-26	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-27	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-28	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-29	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-30	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-31	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M

 

Climatological Data for Charleston Area, WV (ThreadEx) - January 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	760	393	-	-	976	0	2.18	17.9	-
Average	31.7	16.4	24.0	-10.9	-	-	-	-	3.5
Normal	43.7	26.1	34.9	-	722	0	2.53	8.0
2025-01-01	40	32	36.0	0.2	29	0	0.06	T	0
2025-01-02	40	27	33.5	-2.1	31	0	T	T	0
2025-01-03	35	26	30.5	-5.0	34	0	0.05	0.2	0
2025-01-04	31	20	25.5	-9.9	39	0	T	0.3	T
2025-01-05	28	17	22.5	-12.8	42	0	0.74	5.5	0
2025-01-06	31	24	27.5	-7.7	37	0	0.75	1.2	4
2025-01-07	25	20	22.5	-12.6	42	0	T	0.8	5
2025-01-08	25	20	22.5	-12.5	42	0	0.01	1.2	6
2025-01-09	20	12	16.0	-18.9	49	0	T	T	5
2025-01-10	24	7	15.5	-19.3	49	0	0.11	2.6	4
2025-01-11	30	24	27.0	-7.8	38	0	0.12	1.9	8
2025-01-12	37	12	24.5	-10.2	40	0	0.00	0.0	8
2025-01-13	40	24	32.0	-2.7	33	0	0.00	0.0	5
2025-01-14	32	12	22.0	-12.7	43	0	T	M	4
2025-01-15	26	7	16.5	-18.1	48	0	0.00	0.0	4
2025-01-16	41	12	26.5	-8.1	38	0	T	T	4
2025-01-17	46	27	36.5	1.9	28	0	0.00	0.0	3
2025-01-18	43	29	36.0	1.4	29	0	0.09	0.0	2
2025-01-19	36	20	28.0	-6.6	37	0	0.23	4.1	1
2025-01-20	20	1	10.5	-24.2	54	0	0.02	T	5
2025-01-21	20	1	10.5	-24.2	54	0	T	T	4
2025-01-22	24	-2	11.0	-23.7	54	0	T	0.1	4
2025-01-23	33	3	18.0	-16.8	47	0	0.00	0.0	4
2025-01-24	33	18	25.5	-9.4	39	0	T	M	M
2025-01-25	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-26	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-27	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-28	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-29	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-30	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-31	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M

 

 

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow, they had a drier one than this? which year?

1981 with 0.49". January 2025 has 0.50".