January 2025

[jm1220]

19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Storm track into the lakes 

we cooked 

Dec was quite wet when the storm track was into the lakes. When we get flooded with warm air again I’m sure the storms will come back. 

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Dec was quite wet when the storm track was into the lakes. When we get flooded with warm air again I’m sure the storms will come back. 

I only remember one rain storm in December 

 

was it really that wet? 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Not sure what area you're referring to but most of the area not much north and west of the city saw a widespread 5-8 inches four days ago. It's a big area. 

Yes, but the number of people affected is the difference.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Not sure what area you're referring to but most of the area not much north and west of the city saw a widespread 5-8 inches four days ago. It's a big area. 

a different climate up there, remember we are subtropical ;-) plus we have our driest January on record

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Dec was quite wet when the storm track was into the lakes. When we get flooded with warm air again I’m sure the storms will come back. 

we also had a nice snowy period around Christmas

I think we'll have a wet period pseudo early spring but later on we'll go right back to warm and dry when real spring sets in, just like we have done the last 2 years.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Wet and warm 

Brief and then right back to cold and hopefully stormy. 

 

Gefs doesn't look bad for the storm in early February .

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the only reason NYC didn’t drop below -10° with all the amazing Arctic outbreaks between December 1976 and January 1994 was the wind direction during those events. That era was known for W to NW flow Arctic outbreaks with the Arctic highs dropping to our SW. February 1934 had a record 1050 MB high north of Cleveland with a N to NNW flow. Many of those winters in the CONUS were as cold or even colder than any of the 1930s Arctic outbreaks. The other time NYC dipped below -10° was December 1917 and that was on a northerly flow down the Hudson Valley also. The only other known time since 1850 that NYC dipped below -10° was 1-10-1859 and that was probably a northerly flow Arctic outbreak also.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-83B7C91F-D13A-41BD-8DA6-B04751ABCF72.pdf

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-B52AC2FB-E0E2-4D85-B828-754842FD43C9.pdf

k City Temperatures

Monday, January 10, 1859

Max. –1.5° Min. –12.0° Mean: -6.75°

12 a.m.: -1.5 (i)

4 a.m.: -2.5 (ii)

7 a.m.: -3.7 (ii)

11 a.m.: -7.5 (ii)

12 noon: -9.0 (iii)

2 p.m.: -3.8 (ii)

9 p.m.: -8.0 (ii)

12 a.m.: -12.0 (iv)

(i) Estimate; (ii) Erasmus Hall, Brooklyn, N.Y. readings; (iii) Coldest Weather In Seventy Years. The New York Times, 11 Jan. 1859; (iv) Jamaica, Queens

1780 also had a notable outbreak that got NYC down to -16, on January 23rd.

It seems to be easier to get Newark and Philly to -10 than it is for NYC to get to -10.

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I only remember one rain storm in December 

 

was it really that wet? 

Area wide had 4-6” IIRC. We had a lot on New Years Eve with the thunderstorms. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

The band ended up just north of my area and I believe the jersey shore only had 6-12 after being in the bullseye all week 

it was in an ideal location for Allentown to JFK, the bullseye was almost a duplicate of what happened in February 1983

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

UHI can’t stop CAA when the airmass is cold enough. This is why Chicago had colder temperatures in the 1980s with much more UHI than the late 1880s. Cities like NYC always needed strong CAA since around 1900 when UHI become firmly established in NYC. The same goes for areas near the Long Island Sound and the South Shore. Coastal areas need the winds to stay up in order to deliver the coldest readings. Manhattan Island probably was never a great radiational cooling spot even before the Dutch arrived. The February 1934 Arctic outbreak was much colder than anything we have seen since then. If we could recreate that Arctic airmass again urbanized areas would have no problem dropping from-10 to -20 as Chicago recently proved with -20s back in January 2019. You need the cold right down to the the coast like in February 1934 in order to get so much ice on the local waterways which we have not seen since. 

Click on top title below to get video to load

 

But that still doesn't explain how Newark got down to -8 several times and Philadelphia to -10 and -11 during the 80s.  There must be some reason that caps NYC to -2 that has to do with its geography vs Newark and Philly that can get much colder.  I think the big change in climate happened after 1994 and not after 1934 (maybe after 1985 if you want to talk about yearly subzero outbreaks), because those other locations were still getting much colder.

[Allsnow]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Brief and then right back to cold and hopefully stormy. 

 

Gefs doesn't look bad for the storm in early February .

Good luck 

 

now I see why Walt was nervous about winter being over 

[Snowstorms]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the only reason NYC didn’t drop below -10° with all the amazing Arctic outbreaks between December 1976 and January 1994 was the wind direction during those events. That era was known for W to NW flow Arctic outbreaks with the Arctic highs dropping to our SW. February 1934 had a record 1050 MB high north of Cleveland with a N to NNW flow. Many of those winters in the CONUS were as cold or even colder than any of the 1930s Arctic outbreaks. The other time NYC dipped below -10° was December 1917 and that was on a northerly flow down the Hudson Valley also. The only other known time since 1850 that NYC dipped below -10° was 1-10-1859 and that was probably a northerly flow Arctic outbreak also.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-83B7C91F-D13A-41BD-8DA6-B04751ABCF72.pdf

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-B52AC2FB-E0E2-4D85-B828-754842FD43C9.pdf

k City Temperatures

Monday, January 10, 1859

Max. –1.5° Min. –12.0° Mean: -6.75°

12 a.m.: -1.5 (i)

4 a.m.: -2.5 (ii)

7 a.m.: -3.7 (ii)

11 a.m.: -7.5 (ii)

12 noon: -9.0 (iii)

2 p.m.: -3.8 (ii)

9 p.m.: -8.0 (ii)

12 a.m.: -12.0 (iv)

(i) Estimate; (ii) Erasmus Hall, Brooklyn, N.Y. readings; (iii) Coldest Weather In Seventy Years. The New York Times, 11 Jan. 1859; (iv) Jamaica, Queens

What is NYC's coldest wind direction? 

Although we will likely finish below average this month, this cold hasn't been anything extreme. Its been more seasonable cold for us. Our average low is 13 right now and we've only dipped below 13, 8 times so far. 

This has been because of two things. The consistent cloud cover thanks to the warm lakes and the wind direction. It's been primarily out of the SW or WSW. Our coldest wind is from the NW or due N.

I can give you a great example and perhaps you guys experienced this too. During the mid Feb 2016 cold snap, Toronto dropped to -16, which was our coldest low since Jan 1994. All because the wind was from due North that night. 

 

[Snowlover11]

anyone feel the earth shake? supposedly 2.4 in paramus, nj.  I didn’t feel shit.

[forkyfork]

i felt it. thought it was a big truck driving by

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Good luck 

 

now I see why Walt was nervous about winter being over 

We need a change because this suppression isn't working out for us. 

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We need a change because this suppression isn't working out for us. 

the 540 line crashing into the GOM rarely does work out for us

[bluewave]

56 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But that still doesn't explain how Newark got down to -8 several times and Philadelphia to -10 and -11 during the 80s.  There must be some reason that caps NYC to -2 that has to do with its geography vs Newark and Philly that can get much colder.  I think the big change in climate happened after 1994 and not after 1934 (maybe after 1985 if you want to talk about yearly subzero outbreaks), because those other locations were still getting much colder.

Brooklyn got down to -4° on 1-21-85 when Newark was -8°. So really not sure why Central Park couldn’t go below -2° as even LGA was -3°. I was out on the Long Beach Boardwalk that morning viewing the greatest display of Arctic seasmoke and steamnadoes that I saw there. It was my only time there experiencing temps on the Long Beach Boardwalk in the 0° to -1° range combined with 40-50mph gusts. 

Data for January 21, 1985 through January 21, 1985
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	-14
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	-12
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	-12
NY	MIDDLETOWN 2 NW	COOP	-10
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	-10
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	-9
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	-8
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	-8
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	-8
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	-7
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	-7
CT	DANBURY	COOP	-7
NY	GARNERVILLE	COOP	-6
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	-6
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	-6
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	-6
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	-5
NY	NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS	COOP	-5
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	-5
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	-5
NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	-4
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	-4
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	-4
NY	WESTBURY	COOP	-4
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	-3
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	-3
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	-3
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	-3
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	-2
CT	NORWALK GAS PLANT	COOP	-2
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	-2
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	-2

[winterwx21]

Sucks that it has been dry when we're finally having a cold winter, but at least we had a white Christmas and we're having a long period with snow cover now in January. We've had just enough snow to make it nice, so I can't complain too much. 

Maybe in February we'll have a much milder but stormier pattern. Always the chance that we can get lucky with a thread the needle snowstorm. The small snow events have been nice, but it would be great to see a more significant snowstorm. 

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Brooklyn got down to -4° on 1-21-85 when Newark was -8°. So really not sure why Central Park couldn’t go below -2° as even LGA was -3°. I was out on the Long Beach Boardwalk that morning viewing the greatest display of Arctic seasmoke and steamnadoes that I saw there. It was my only time there experiencing temps on the Long Beach Boardwalk in the 0° to -1° range combined with 40-50mph gusts. 

Data for January 21, 1985 through January 21, 1985
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	-14
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	-12
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	-12
NY	MIDDLETOWN 2 NW	COOP	-10
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	-10
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	-9
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	-8
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	-8
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	-8
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	-7
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	-7
CT	DANBURY	COOP	-7
NY	GARNERVILLE	COOP	-6
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	-6
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	-6
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	-6
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	-5
NY	NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS	COOP	-5
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	-5
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	-5
NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	-4
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	-4
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	-4
NY	WESTBURY	COOP	-4
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	-3
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	-3
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	-3
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	-3
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	-2
CT	NORWALK GAS PLANT	COOP	-2
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	-2
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	-2

I remember frozen frost on my windows and could not see outside at all.  The curious thing about the park is it hasn't even reached -3 or -4 or anything lower than -2 since the 1940s? I find that very curious.  1943 I think it was, was a very cold winter, including a number of days below zero, -6 was the lowest temperature recorded that winter. I think that was the last time it was below -2 at the park.

 

[LibertyBell]

56 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i felt it. thought it was a big truck driving by

I thought it was a morbidly obese man jogging by.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

What is NYC's coldest wind direction? 

Although we will likely finish below average this month, this cold hasn't been anything extreme. Its been more seasonable cold for us. Our average low is 13 right now and we've only dipped below 13, 8 times so far. 

This has been because of two things. The consistent cloud cover thanks to the warm lakes and the wind direction. It's been primarily out of the SW or WSW. Our coldest wind is from the NW or due N.

I can give you a great example and perhaps you guys experienced this too. During the mid Feb 2016 cold snap, Toronto dropped to -16, which was our coldest low since Jan 1994. All because the wind was from due North that night. 

 

The famous Valentines Day 2016 arctic outbreak was the last time NYC went below zero and the only time in February in my lifetime.

 

[EastonSN+]

58 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We need a change because this suppression isn't working out for us. 

We've got two months left. The mjo should get to phase 8 by the end of February. That's plenty of time to get another snow event. 

Was Walt really nervous winter was over?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

What is NYC's coldest wind direction? 

Although we will likely finish below average this month, this cold hasn't been anything extreme. Its been more seasonable cold for us. Our average low is 13 right now and we've only dipped below 13, 8 times so far. 

This has been because of two things. The consistent cloud cover thanks to the warm lakes and the wind direction. It's been primarily out of the SW or WSW. Our coldest wind is from the NW or due N.

I can give you a great example and perhaps you guys experienced this too. During the mid Feb 2016 cold snap, Toronto dropped to -16, which was our coldest low since Jan 1994. All because the wind was from due North that night. 

 

I find it really curious that we got below zero in February 2016, during a much warmer climate regime (a super el nino no less), while we could not do it in January 2004, which was a much colder climate regime, and two nights in a row we stopped at +1.

[Allsnow]

17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Sucks that it has been dry when we're finally having a cold winter, but at least we had a white Christmas and we're having a long period with snow cover now in January. We've had just enough snow to make it nice, so I can't complain too much. 

Maybe in February we'll have a much milder but stormier pattern. Always the chance that we can get lucky with a thread the needle snowstorm. The small snow events have been nice, but it would be great to see a more significant snowstorm. 

Nice to see ice along the banks of the Raritan on my trip over the Driscoll bridge today. I can’t remember the last time we had that

[MJO812]

I dont care at this point if we get snow to rain events.

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I find it really curious that we got below zero in February 2016, during a much warmer climate regime (a super el nino no less), while we could not do it in January 2004, which was a much colder climate regime, and two nights in a row we stopped at +1.

The core of the airmass in 04 missed us to the NE over New England and it was simply way too windy that night so we were probably mixing too much.  Ideally winds gusting 20-25kts tend to be ideal for NYC to go below 0 but it was well into the 30s that night

[wishcast_hater]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I dont care at this point if we get snow to rain events.

Been hearing the models are hinting at return to cold in early February. 

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Been hearing the models are hinting at return to cold in early February. 

More like mid February

[bluewave]

47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I find it really curious that we got below zero in February 2016, during a much warmer climate regime (a super el nino no less), while we could not do it in January 2004, which was a much colder climate regime, and two nights in a row we stopped at +1.

Yeah, everything lined up perfectly for a below 0°reading in NYC on 2-14-16. Record blocking north of Alaska driving the core of the cold and Arctic high pressure down at a perfect angle. Didn’t matter that it was one of the warmest winters on record or how much UHI there was. We couldn’t even get to or below 0° in NYC during the much colder winters in 13-14 or 14-15. Here at HVN some of our coldest readings have occurred in recent years on strong northerly flow events. Even though 22-23 was another top warmest winter, we still were able to go below 0° here like in 2016. So shorter Arctic outbreaks are still very possible even if we haven’t had a top 10 coldest winter month since February 2015 and top 10 coldest winter since the 1970s. 

 

Coldest temperatures at HVN since 47-48

 Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1947-1948	-8	31
2	1960-1961	-7	0
3	2015-2016	-6	0
-	1956-1957	-6	0
4	1967-1968	-5	0
5	2008-2009	-4	0
-	1962-1963	-4	0
6	2022-2023	-3	0
-	2014-2015	-3	0
-	2003-2004	-3	0
-	1966-1967	-3	0
-	1948-1949	-3	0

 

 

Climatological Data for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - February 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	1314	762	-	-	774	0	0.67
Average	46.9	27.2	37.1	5.1	-	-	-
Normal	40.2	23.9	32.0	-	923	0
2023-02-01	37	27	32.0	1.8	33	0	T
2023-02-02	40	20	30.0	-0.3	35	0	0.00
2023-02-03	39	3	21.0	-9.4	44	0	T
2023-02-04	30	-3	13.5	-17.0	51	0	0.00
2023-02-05	43	29	36.0	5.4	29	0	0.00
2023-02-06	56	27	41.5	10.8	23	0	0.00
2023-02-07	41	26	33.5	2.7	31	0	0.07
2023-02-08	53	29	41.0	10.1	24	0	0.00
2023-02-09	52	25	38.5	7.4	26	0	0.00
2023-02-10	62	35	48.5	17.3	16	0	0.00
2023-02-11	47	27	37.0	5.7	28	0	0.00
2023-02-12	47	25	36.0	4.5	29	0	0.00
2023-02-13	54	38	46.0	14.4	19	0	0.01
2023-02-14	55	32	43.5	11.7	21	0	0.00
2023-02-15	58	33	45.5	13.5	19	0	0.00
2023-02-16	68	47	57.5	25.4	7	0	0.03
2023-02-17	56	31	43.5	11.2	21	0	0.21
2023-02-18	42	27	34.5	2.0	30	0	0.00
2023-02-19	48	31	39.5	6.8	25	0	0.00
2023-02-20	58	41	49.5	16.6	15	0	0.00
2023-02-21	48	36	42.0	8.9	23	0	T
2023-02-22	44	27	35.5	2.3	29	0	0.05
2023-02-23	41	36	38.5	5.1	26	0	0.05
2023-02-24	44	24	34.0	0.4	31	0	0.02
2023-02-25	30	19	24.5	-9.3	40	0	0.03
2023-02-26	42	17	29.5	-4.6	35	0	0.00
2023-02-27	42	22	32.0	-2.3	33	0	0.06
2023-02-28	37	31	34.0	-0.5	31	0	0.14

[the_other_guy]

28 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Been hearing the models are hinting at return to cold in early February. 

Return to cold? Doesnt it have to get warm first? 

Enjoy the winter guys…

Never saw so much hysterics in a cold January with water ways iced over and snow on the ground