January 2025

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

CVG" -9.2
CLE: - 7.9
PIT:  - 7.8

I shudder to think how cold the departures in the Deep South might be....

1 Houston

2 Beaumont

3 New Orleans

4 Pensacola

5 Panama Beach

 

[lee59]

45 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Both the gfs and euro have nyc falling into the single digits next week 

Yea it looks like late next week and it appears it will be one of those cold snaps where the cold comes from the north right down the Hudson Valley rather than from the Midwest. This is usually our coldest temperatures. We'll see if it actually materializes.

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Yea it looks like late next week and it appears it will be one of those cold snaps where the cold comes from the north right down the Hudson Valley rather than from the Midwest. This is usually our coldest temperatures. We'll see if it actually materializes.

Absolutely. With a snow pack to our north it has the potential to be the coldest air of the season for nyc 

[psv88]

12 this morning and already 25. We hit 33 yesterday so the under 32 streak was already broken. Still have 100% snow coverage 

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But Chris, Westhampton Beach regularly goes below zero and even Newark has gotten close to -10 many times during the 80s as well as Philly, so this particular stat might be because of UHI? Though the more recent change in not getting below zero arctic outbreaks as frequently at our city airports and the park since 1994 might be be more climate related.

 

UHI can’t stop CAA when the airmass is cold enough. This is why Chicago had colder temperatures in the 1980s with much more UHI than the late 1880s. Cities like NYC always needed strong CAA since around 1900 when UHI become firmly established in NYC. The same goes for areas near the Long Island Sound and the South Shore. Coastal areas need the winds to stay up in order to deliver the coldest readings. Manhattan Island probably was never a great radiational cooling spot even before the Dutch arrived. The February 1934 Arctic outbreak was much colder than anything we have seen since then. If we could recreate that Arctic airmass again urbanized areas would have no problem dropping from-10 to -20 as Chicago recently proved with -20s back in January 2019. You need the cold right down to the the coast like in February 1934 in order to get so much ice on the local waterways which we have not seen since. 

Click on top title below to get video to load

 

[EWR757]

39 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I think Mace Head has a manned observatory, but I might be mistaken.

That would be great if it was.  Hopefully the wind records can be verified.  I watched on RTE News the highest ever sustained wind was also recorded in Ireland, at 135 km/h. 

 

I went to the Valentia Observatory a few years ago and there was not a human around.  A nice automated setup though. 

 

https://valentiaisland.ie/history_culture/valentia-observatory/

 

Today:

 

https://maps.app.goo.gl/MJ19XroqVhVzhJnk7

 

 

[Allsnow]

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

25 Years ago

 

"During the 6 p.m. news reports on Jan. 24, local meteorologists in the Washington, D.C., region forecasted "snow flurries" to begin around noon the next day with "up to an inch of accumulation on the ground." That was the last forecast many D.C. residents heard before going to bed that evening. But on Tuesday morning, Jan. 25, they awoke to find near blizzard conditions outside with 4 to 7 inches of accumulation already on the ground; and the winter storm wouldn’t subside until about 11 p.m. that night. In all, some areas east of Washington, D.C., received as much as 18 inches!"

 

https://www.weather.gov/media/rah/20000125.index.print.pdf

 

 

we would ultimately get a mix / dry slotted on the 25th.

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Yeah, the Euro and GFS were too suppressed to the south with the snowfall forecast being 10-20” too low while the NAM did a great job.

https://ams.confex.com/ams/44Broadcast/webprogram/Paper294758.html

The snowstorm of 22-23 January 2016 in the northeastern United States produced one of the largest snowfalls ever recorded in the metropolitan corridor that extends from Washington, DC to New York, NY. The indication for major cyclogenesis with a potential significant east coast snowfall was predicted 12 days and 6 days in advance by the GFS and the ECMWF models, respectively. Early and consistent model forecasts led to high confidence in predicting very heavy snowfall for Virginia, Maryland and southeastern Pennsylvania including the cities of Washington, Baltimore, and Philadelphia. Further, the models consistently indicated that there would be a very strong gradient in snowfall accumulation near the northern extent of the precipitation shield, which was predicted to fall within 100km north or south of the New York City metropolitan region. Variations in the northern extent of snowfall across the operational and ensemble model suites led to significant uncertainty in snowfall predictions for New York City. Just 12 hours before the onset of precipitation in New York City, deterministic model forecasts varied greatly with snowfall forecasts from the GFS, ECMWF, NAM, and WSI's RPM being 12, 11, 26, and 29 inches respectively. Further, NCEP's short-range ensemble forecasts (SREF) had even larger spread with ranges from 1" to over 32" of snow. 

Retrospective analysis of global model forecasts and of NCEP's short-range ensemble forecasts system (SREF) revealed that forecasts based on the WRF-ARW dynamical core (including WSI RPM) were much more consistent and accurate at predicting the northern extent of heavy precipitation than forecasts based on other dynamical cores (NAM, GFS, and ECMWF). This presentation will provide both an analysis of the available real-time numerical weather prediction models, as well as an analysis of retrospective runs of the RPM system (using its WRF-ARW core) to reveal what components of the WRF-ARW contributed to the accurate snowfall forecasts, especially in the northern part of this snowstorm. 

 

[weatherpruf]

The weather sucks and its like living in Mongolia I guess. My skin is dry as hell and bleeding. I am more than ready for a milder pattern. It's obvious we're not getting the snow; any time I've seen the South get a lot of snow, it's usually meant not much for us. Anything can happen I guess, but I am fed up with this cold pattern. A dirty warm up and rain is preferable to this. Left a case of water in the car that I forgot about, it's frozen solid. Not even Anthony has much to track.

[lee59]

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

UHI can’t stop CAA when the airmass is cold enough. This is why Chicago had colder temperatures in the 1980s with much more UHI than the late 1880s. Cities like NYC always needed strong CAA since around 1900 when UHI become firmly established in NYC. The same goes for areas near the Long Island Sound and the South Shore. Coastal areas need the winds to stay up in order to deliver the coldest readings. Manhattan Island probably was never a great radiational cooling spot even before the Dutch arrived. The February 1934 Arctic outbreak was much colder than anything we have seen since then. If we could recreate that Arctic airmass again urbanized areas would have no problem dropping from-10 to -20 as Chicago recently proved with -20s back in January 2019. You need the cold right down to the the coast like in February 1934 in order to get so much ice on the local waterways which we have not seen since. 

Click on top title below to get video to load

 

Another extremely cold period was 1977. I remember standing on the Ct. shore and looking out on Long Island Sound and seeing ice as far out as my eyes could see. 1934 had that one extremely cold month (February) with those record low temperatures. 1977 had an extremely cold January and that was preceded by a  cold December.

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the Euro and GFS were too suppressed with the snowfall forecast being 10-20” too low while the NAM did a great job.

https://ams.confex.com/ams/44Broadcast/webprogram/Paper294758.html

The snowstorm of 22-23 January 2016 in the northeastern United States produced one of the largest snowfalls ever recorded in the metropolitan corridor that extends from Washington, DC to New York, NY. The indication for major cyclogenesis with a potential significant east coast snowfall was predicted 12 days and 6 days in advance by the GFS and the ECMWF models, respectively. Early and consistent model forecasts led to high confidence in predicting very heavy snowfall for Virginia, Maryland and southeastern Pennsylvania including the cities of Washington, Baltimore, and Philadelphia. Further, the models consistently indicated that there would be a very strong gradient in snowfall accumulation near the northern extent of the precipitation shield, which was predicted to fall within 100km north or south of the New York City metropolitan region. Variations in the northern extent of snowfall across the operational and ensemble model suites led to significant uncertainty in snowfall predictions for New York City. Just 12 hours before the onset of precipitation in New York City, deterministic model forecasts varied greatly with snowfall forecasts from the GFS, ECMWF, NAM, and WSI's RPM being 12, 11, 26, and 29 inches respectively. Further, NCEP's short-range ensemble forecasts (SREF) had even larger spread with ranges from 1" to over 32" of snow. 

Retrospective analysis of global model forecasts and of NCEP's short-range ensemble forecasts system (SREF) revealed that forecasts based on the WRF-ARW dynamical core (including WSI RPM) were much more consistent and accurate at predicting the northern extent of heavy precipitation than forecasts based on other dynamical cores (NAM, GFS, and ECMWF). This presentation will provide both an analysis of the available real-time numerical weather prediction models, as well as an analysis of retrospective runs of the RPM system (using its WRF-ARW core) to reveal what components of the WRF-ARW contributed to the accurate snowfall forecasts, especially in the northern part of this snowstorm. 

 

The band ended up just north of my area and I believe the jersey shore only had 6-12 after being in the bullseye all week 

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Both the gfs and euro have nyc falling into the single digits next week 

Honestly, without meaningful snow who needs it.  By meaningful I'm talking 12" forum wide.  Otherwise let it warm up and rain.  I'm done with the cold and piddly snow events.  It is dry and we could use the rain.

Let the weenies and buns fly.

[anthonymm]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Finally a well below avg January and this happens 

 

 

It's BECAUSE it was cold that it was dry. Havent you noticed the pattern in recent years is cold and dry or warm and wet. We're in a low snow period, dont expect precipitation if its <32, snow isnt allowed anymore.

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Honestly, without meaningful snow who needs it.  By meaningful I'm talking 12" forum wide.  Otherwise let it warm up and rain.  I'm done with the cold and piddly snow events.  It is dry and we could use the rain.

Let the weenies and buns fly.

Early February looks very wet on the gfs. Let's hope

[anthonymm]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The band ended up just north of my area and I believe the jersey shore only had 6-12 after being in the bullseye all week 

The phrase "only 6-12"" sounds so odd to hear in this era. We'd all die to get a widespread 6" event in this area nowadays.

[Dark Star]

17 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

The weather sucks and its like living in Mongolia I guess. My skin is dry as hell and bleeding. I am more than ready for a milder pattern. It's obvious we're not getting the snow; any time I've seen the South get a lot of snow, it's usually meant not much for us. Anything can happen I guess, but I am fed up with this cold pattern. A dirty warm up and rain is preferable to this. Left a case of water in the car that I forgot about, it's frozen solid. Not even Anthony has much to track.

I've been using a combination of neosporin (including on my thumbnails) and Gold Bond Eczema Relief on my hands.  I can't say what to use if you are bleeding though.  That is severe.  I've been sporadically massaging my dog's pads with some Gold Bond as well.  

[Dark Star]

13 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

It's BECAUSE it was cold that it was dry. Havent you noticed the pattern in recent years is cold and dry or warm and wet. We're in a low snow period, dont expect precipitation if its <32, snow isnt allowed anymore.

Then expect, rain...

[Stormlover74]

Just hit 30 for first time since Sunday 

[EWR757]

41 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

The weather sucks and its like living in Mongolia I guess. My skin is dry as hell and bleeding. I am more than ready for a milder pattern. It's obvious we're not getting the snow; any time I've seen the South get a lot of snow, it's usually meant not much for us. Anything can happen I guess, but I am fed up with this cold pattern. A dirty warm up and rain is preferable to this. Left a case of water in the car that I forgot about, it's frozen solid. Not even Anthony has much to track.

I would give my spleen for a dewpoint of 77 F right now. 

Florida isn't even an option these days.  Yesterday Miami was in the 50s with fog.  

 

My skin is dry too, but where I suffer the most is my nose and sinuses.  Give me 33 F, rain and dense fog any day of the week.  

[Brian5671]

One nice thing about the cold-lots of sunny days during a dark time of the year...many times when we are warm it's overcast/fog/drizzle

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

33 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

The phrase "only 6-12"" sounds so odd to hear in this era. We'd all die to get a widespread 6" event in this area nowadays.

Not sure what area you're referring to but most of the area not much north and west of the city saw a widespread 5-8 inches four days ago. It's a big area. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

47 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Honestly, without meaningful snow who needs it.  By meaningful I'm talking 12" forum wide.  Otherwise let it warm up and rain.  I'm done with the cold and piddly snow events.  It is dry and we could use the rain.

Let the weenies and buns fly.

From the sample of comments the last day we have finally entered the age of snowdeprivation insanity for those in the city south and east.  

[psv88]

25 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

From the sample of comments the last day we have finally entered the age of snowdeprivation insanity for those in the city south and east.  

Not at all. We all have snow on the ground as well. People sick of cold and dry. It’s a normal sentiment.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Early February looks very wet on the gfs. Let's hope

Wet and warm 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Wet and warm 

Low 40s is pretty average

[SACRUS]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I shudder to think how cold the departures in the Deep South might be....

1 Houston

2 Beaumont

3 New Orleans

4 Pensacola

5 Panama Beach

 

 

Not s cold as OH/-WPA

 

PNS: -7.6
IAH: - 6.5
MSY: -6.2
 

[Allsnow]

35 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Low 40s is pretty average

Storm track into the lakes 

we cooked 

[SACRUS]

33 here - broke freezing

JFK: 33
EWR: 32
LGA: 31
NYC: 31
 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, lee59 said:

Another extremely cold period was 1977. I remember standing on the Ct. shore and looking out on Long Island Sound and seeing ice as far out as my eyes could see. 1934 had that one extremely cold month (February) with those record low temperatures. 1977 had an extremely cold January and that was preceded by a  cold December.

Yeah, the only reason NYC didn’t drop below -10° with all the amazing Arctic outbreaks between December 1976 and January 1994 was the wind direction during those events. That era was known for W to NW flow Arctic outbreaks with the Arctic highs dropping to our SW. February 1934 had a record 1050 MB high north of Cleveland with a N to NNW flow. Many of those winters in the CONUS were as cold or even colder than any of the 1930s Arctic outbreaks. The other time NYC dipped below -10° was December 1917 and that was on a northerly flow down the Hudson Valley also. The only other known time since 1850 that NYC dipped below -10° was 1-10-1859 and that was probably a northerly flow Arctic outbreak also.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-83B7C91F-D13A-41BD-8DA6-B04751ABCF72.pdf

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-B52AC2FB-E0E2-4D85-B828-754842FD43C9.pdf

k City Temperatures

Monday, January 10, 1859

Max. –1.5° Min. –12.0° Mean: -6.75°

12 a.m.: -1.5 (i)

4 a.m.: -2.5 (ii)

7 a.m.: -3.7 (ii)

11 a.m.: -7.5 (ii)

12 noon: -9.0 (iii)

2 p.m.: -3.8 (ii)

9 p.m.: -8.0 (ii)

12 a.m.: -12.0 (iv)

(i) Estimate; (ii) Erasmus Hall, Brooklyn, N.Y. readings; (iii) Coldest Weather In Seventy Years. The New York Times, 11 Jan. 1859; (iv) Jamaica, Queens