January 2025

[NEG NAO]

25 minutes ago, psv88 said:

10 days out?

he posted a Jan 30 GFS first then posted CMC for Feb 2nd - I was referring to the Jan 30th threat on the new GFS - the CNC at hour 144 is not as organized as the GFS BUT shows precip to our west with the approaching cold air outbreak

[Stormlover74]

Euro has both. Snow on 29th rain on 1st

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro has both. Snow on 29th rain on 1st

[wdrag]

Will review at 5P for a possible Wed 29th thread.  

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow absolutely fascinating Chris, each arctic outbreak had its own personality!!

Something else I find interesting is how much more frequent the subzero arctic outbreaks were prior to 1985 and how rare they have become since then.  January 1994 and then nothing until February 2016.

The ones I remember offhand were January 1977, December 1980, January 1981 (two that season!), January 1982, January 1984, January 1985..... then a gap...... January 1994 (two that month)....... then an even larger gap and then February 2016.

We probably would have had a subzero arctic outbreak in the 1982-83 winter too if we didn't have a super el nino!  Otherwise we had one in every winter from 1980-81 through 1984-85!

I'm defining subzero arctic outbreak as one in one one of the four metro area stations (NYC, EWR, LGA, JFK) reached 0 or lower for at least one low.  Did I miss any or were those the ones that happened in the period starting from the 1976-77 winter until now?

 

Yeah, when you have rely on snow cover and the winds going calm there are usually many fewer record lows across a wider area. This is why we didn’t have that many record lows around the region this week. The Arctic outbreaks from the 70s to 90s had both much colder air masses and strong CAA in addition to radiational cooling. Even the places that did get below 0° like SMQ aren’t having Januaries a cold as they did in past at the same low temperature levels. So the more impressive cold  this time around was more isolated. It’s much easier these days to get record highs than record lows.

 

Jan 25…..coldest of month …-9°…….avg….26.5°

Feb 15…..coldest of month….-9°……..avg….20.3°

Jan 14….coldest of month…..-9………avg….23.0°

Jan 94….coldest of month….-11°…….avg….20.8°

 

 

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, when you have rely on snow cover and the winds going calm there are usually many fewer record lows across a wider area. This is why we didn’t have that many record lows around the region this week. The Arctic outbreaks from the 70s to 90s had both much colder air masses and strong CAA in addition to radiational cooling. Even the places that did get below 0° like SMQ aren’t having Januaries a cold as they did in past at the same low temperature levels. So the more impressive cold  this time around was more isolated. It’s much easier these days to get record highs than record lows.

 

Jan 25…..coldest of month …-9°…….avg….26.5°

Feb 15…..coldest of month….-9°……..avg….20.3°

Jan 14….coldest of month…..-9………avg….23.0°

Jan 94….coldest of month….-11°…….avg….20.8°

 

 

on top of that many of those subzero outbreaks back then were without any snow cover at all-- I remember there was definitely none in January 1985.

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Drive down to Robert Moses. The ice in the bay is a sight to see. And some deer too 

Can you walk across it?

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

I just happened to be watching the news which I never do… And they had a whole segment with Nick Gregory on how they suspended fire Island service due to the ice in the Great South Bay.

 

I guess I haven’t seen him in a while. He looks awful. Almost scary aging

Maybe no need of a ferry if you can walk across the ice?

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Holy moly they're saying gusts up to 100mph...wow. 

New all-time highest wind gust for Ireland. 
 

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

New all-time highest wind gust for Ireland. 
 

 

How does the wind get so high over there, that's over Cat 3 hurricane strength? And why call it *storm* instead of temperate cyclone?  *storm* isn't very descriptive.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

20 / 10 off a low of 8.  Should break freezin today (low 30s).  A bit colder Sat then a moderate period of near / slightly above normal Sun - Tues.    Mainly dry look the next 5 - 7 days.   Cold nearby but the strongest stays north/west outside brief intursions and perhaps more active by the start of next month.  Overall colder look but closer to normal.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

20 / 10 off a low of 8.  Should break freezin today (low 30s).  A bit colder Sat then a moderate period of near / slightly above normal Sun - Tues.    Mainly dry look the next 5 - 7 days.   Cold nearby but the strongest stays north/west outside brief intursions and perhaps more active by the start of next month.  Overall colder look but closer to normal.

 

We might stay at or below freezing today and not break it until Sunday, Tony.

When was the last time we had 7 straight days of 32 or below?

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 68 (1967)
NYC: 68 (1967)
LGA: 68 (1967)
JFK: 65 (1967)

Lows:

EWR: 2 (1936)
NYC: -6 (1886)
LGA: 3 (1963)
JFK: 6 (2011)

 

Historical:

 

1916 - The temperature at Browning MT plunged 100 degrees in just 24 hours, from 44 degrees above zero to 56 degrees below zero. It was a record 24 hour temperature drop for the U.S. (Weather Channel) (National Severe Storms Forecast Center)

1935 - Snowstorms hit the northeastern U.S. and the Pacific Northwest producing record 24 hour snowfall totals of 23 inches at Portland ME and 52 inches at Winthrop MA. (David Ludlum)

 

1940: A record-breaking 19.9 inches of snow fell in Richmond, Virginia, on this day. The storm, which began on the 23rd, produced 21.6 inches of snow for the Richmond area. The headline in the Richmond Times-Dispatch was "Blizzard Sweeps State, Bringing Deep Snow; Public Schools Closed."

1956 - Thirty-eight inches of rain deluged the Kilauea Sugar Plantation of Hawaii in 24 hours, including twelve inches in just one hour. (David Ludlum)

1963 - A great arctic outbreak reached the southern U.S. The cold wave broke many records for duration of cold weather along the Gulf Coast. A reading of 15 degrees below zero at Nashville TN was an all-time record low for that location. (David Ludlum)

 

1967: A tornado outbreak across the Central U.S. was the furthest north ever recorded in the winter up to that time. Severe weather occurred across a good portion of the southeast and east-central Iowa. Two-inch hail fell at Armstrong, and over two dozen tornadoes were reported. Five miles north of Fort Madison, one fatality occurred from a tornado, along with six injuries. A tornado causing F4 damage killed 3 people and injured 216 in St. Louis County, Missouri. Storms also affected parts of northern and central Illinois. One strong tornado in Mason County killed one person and injured three others. Another tornado moved across the Champaign-Urbana metropolitan area, injuring five people. Other strong tornadoes were reported across Carroll County in Mt. Carroll, where 12 people were injured, and near Gladstone in Henderson County. Funnel clouds were reported across the southwest section of Chicago, IL. Iowa had never recorded a tornado in January before this outbreak. 32 total tornadoes occurred, 14 of them in Iowa. Nine twisters occurred in Missouri, 8 in Illinois, and 1 in Wisconsin. 

1982 - Chinook winds plagued the foothills of southeastern Wyoming and northern and central Colorado for the second straight Sunday. The winds gusted to 140 mph at Wondervu CO, located northeast of Denver. Chinook winds a week earlier produced wind gusts to 137 mph. (Storm Data)

1987 - Temperatures in Minnesota plunged far below the zero mark. International Falls MN reported a morning low of 35 degrees below zero, and Warroad MN was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 45 below zero. A storm developing in northeastern Texas produced severe thunderstorms with large hail in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas. Camden AR reported golf ball size hail. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A blizzard rapidly developed in the north central U.S. In just one hour weather conditions in eastern North Dakota switched from sunny skies, light winds and temperature readings in the 20s, to rapidly falling temperatures and near zero visibility in snow and blowing snow. High winds in Wyoming, gusting to 72 mph at Gillette, produced snow drifts sixteen feet high. Northwestern Iowa experienced its second blizzard in just 24 hours. High winds in Iowa produced wind chill readings as cold as 65 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Heavy snow blanketed the Rockies and the Northern High Plains Region. Hettinger ND received 12 inches of snow. Wolf Creek Pass CO was blanketed with 16 inches of snow in just 24 hours. Severe cold prevailed across Alaska. Between the 24th and the 29th of January, a total of thirty stations in the state report all-time record low temperatures. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A deep low pressure system brought high winds and heavy snow to the western Aleutian Islands of Alaska. Winds gusting to 82 mph at Shemya reduced the visibility to near zero in blowing snow. Rain and gale force winds lashed the northern Pacific coast. Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains over the central Gulf coast states. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 68 (1967)
NYC: 68 (1967)
LGA: 68 (1967)
JFK: 65 (1967)

Lows:

EWR: 2 (1936)
NYC: -6 (1886)
LGA: 3 (1963)
JFK: 6 (2011)

 

Historical:

 

1916 - The temperature at Browning MT plunged 100 degrees in just 24 hours, from 44 degrees above zero to 56 degrees below zero. It was a record 24 hour temperature drop for the U.S. (Weather Channel) (National Severe Storms Forecast Center)

1935 - Snowstorms hit the northeastern U.S. and the Pacific Northwest producing record 24 hour snowfall totals of 23 inches at Portland ME and 52 inches at Winthrop MA. (David Ludlum)

 

1940: A record-breaking 19.9 inches of snow fell in Richmond, Virginia, on this day. The storm, which began on the 23rd, produced 21.6 inches of snow for the Richmond area. The headline in the Richmond Times-Dispatch was "Blizzard Sweeps State, Bringing Deep Snow; Public Schools Closed."

1956 - Thirty-eight inches of rain deluged the Kilauea Sugar Plantation of Hawaii in 24 hours, including twelve inches in just one hour. (David Ludlum)

1963 - A great arctic outbreak reached the southern U.S. The cold wave broke many records for duration of cold weather along the Gulf Coast. A reading of 15 degrees below zero at Nashville TN was an all-time record low for that location. (David Ludlum)

 

1967: A tornado outbreak across the Central U.S. was the furthest north ever recorded in the winter up to that time. Severe weather occurred across a good portion of the southeast and east-central Iowa. Two-inch hail fell at Armstrong, and over two dozen tornadoes were reported. Five miles north of Fort Madison, one fatality occurred from a tornado, along with six injuries. A tornado causing F4 damage killed 3 people and injured 216 in St. Louis County, Missouri. Storms also affected parts of northern and central Illinois. One strong tornado in Mason County killed one person and injured three others. Another tornado moved across the Champaign-Urbana metropolitan area, injuring five people. Other strong tornadoes were reported across Carroll County in Mt. Carroll, where 12 people were injured, and near Gladstone in Henderson County. Funnel clouds were reported across the southwest section of Chicago, IL. Iowa had never recorded a tornado in January before this outbreak. 32 total tornadoes occurred, 14 of them in Iowa. Nine twisters occurred in Missouri, 8 in Illinois, and 1 in Wisconsin. 

1982 - Chinook winds plagued the foothills of southeastern Wyoming and northern and central Colorado for the second straight Sunday. The winds gusted to 140 mph at Wondervu CO, located northeast of Denver. Chinook winds a week earlier produced wind gusts to 137 mph. (Storm Data)

1987 - Temperatures in Minnesota plunged far below the zero mark. International Falls MN reported a morning low of 35 degrees below zero, and Warroad MN was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 45 below zero. A storm developing in northeastern Texas produced severe thunderstorms with large hail in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas. Camden AR reported golf ball size hail. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A blizzard rapidly developed in the north central U.S. In just one hour weather conditions in eastern North Dakota switched from sunny skies, light winds and temperature readings in the 20s, to rapidly falling temperatures and near zero visibility in snow and blowing snow. High winds in Wyoming, gusting to 72 mph at Gillette, produced snow drifts sixteen feet high. Northwestern Iowa experienced its second blizzard in just 24 hours. High winds in Iowa produced wind chill readings as cold as 65 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Heavy snow blanketed the Rockies and the Northern High Plains Region. Hettinger ND received 12 inches of snow. Wolf Creek Pass CO was blanketed with 16 inches of snow in just 24 hours. Severe cold prevailed across Alaska. Between the 24th and the 29th of January, a total of thirty stations in the state report all-time record low temperatures. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A deep low pressure system brought high winds and heavy snow to the western Aleutian Islands of Alaska. Winds gusting to 82 mph at Shemya reduced the visibility to near zero in blowing snow. Rain and gale force winds lashed the northern Pacific coast. Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains over the central Gulf coast states. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

EWR: 68 (1967)
NYC: 68 (1967)
LGA: 68 (1967)
JFK: 65 (1967)

 

wow very warm on this date in 1967 in the middle of a historically snowy winter!

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We might stay at or below freezing today and not break it until Sunday, Tony.

When was the last time we had 7 straight days of 32 or below?

 

Some may.

 

I think for many it was Jan 26 - Feb 1 , 2022

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SACRUS said:

Some may.

 

I think for many it was Jan 26 - Feb 1 , 2022

right after that big snowstorm....

[Allsnow]

Finally a well below avg January and this happens 

 

 

[SACRUS]

20 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Current cold period departures

 

Current cold period departures

1/20

EWR: 28 / 16 (-10)
NYC: 26 / 17 (-11)
LGA: 28 / 18 (-11)
JFK: 29 / 19 (-8)
 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

1/21:

EWR: 20 / 7 (-18)
NYC: 19 / 11 (-18)
LGA: 20 / 13 (-17)
JFK: 20 / 14 (-15)

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

1/22

EWR: 22/ 8 (-17)
NYC: 20 / 10 (-18)
LGA: 21 / 13 (-17)
JFK: 23 / 13 (-14)

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

1/23:

EWR: 29 / 13 (-11)
NYC: 28 / 17 (-10)
LGA: 30 / 18 (-10)
JFK: 30/ 16 (-9)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[SACRUS]

 

Departures thru 1/23

TTN: -5.6
PHL: -5.0
NYC: -3.9
LGA: -3.6
EWR: -2.6
ISP: -2.4
JFK: -1.1

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Departures thru 1/23

TTN: -5.6
PHL: -5.0
NYC: -3.9
LGA: -3.6
EWR: -2.6
ISP: -2.4
JFK: -1.1

Wow 

[Allsnow]

Both the gfs and euro have nyc falling into the single digits next week 

[NorthShoreWx]

49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

New all-time highest wind gust for Ireland. 
 

 

May have been even higher.  Mace Head has been offline since the time of that observation.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Both the gfs and euro have nyc falling into the single digits next week 

ugh, the last thing we need is more cold and dry

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Finally a well below avg January and this happens 

 

 

it's so much better to have a near average cold month, those are usually more active.

 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's so much better to have a near average cold month, those are usually more active.

 

I understand that theory but in reality we haven’t been able to get near avg lately in the winter. Every winter has been filled with pac air invading the country every few weeks. 

[SACRUS]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Wow 

 

 

CVG" -9.2
CLE: - 7.9
PIT:  - 7.8

[EWR757]

13 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

May have been even higher.  Mace Head has been offline since the time of that observation.

https://www.met.ie/latest-reports/observations

Malin Head in Donegal failed as well.  If you are ever in Ireland, it's fun visiting these automated stations.

Hopefully the authority in Ireland can verify these historic measurements soon.

https://www.rte.ie/

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

on top of that many of those subzero outbreaks back then were without any snow cover at all-- I remember there was definitely none in January 1985.

February 1934 was the last time we had widespread -10° to -20° readings near the coast.

Monthly Data for February 1934 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	-26
NY	WALDEN 2 NE	COOP	-24
NY	CARMEL	COOP	-24
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	-21
CT	COLCHESTER 2 W	COOP	-21
CT	NORWALK	COOP	-20
CT	BRIDGEPORT	COOP	-20
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	-19
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	-19
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	-18
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	-18
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	-17
NJ	RIDGEFIELD	COOP	-17
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	-17
CT	NEW LONDON	COOP	-17
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	-16
CT	WATERBURY ANACONDA	COOP	-16
CT	WATERBURY CITY HALL	COOP	-16
NJ	ELIZABETH	COOP	-15
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	-15
NJ	JERSEY CITY	COOP	-14
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	-14
NY	WORLD TRADE CENTER	WBAN	-14
NY	FLUSHING	COOP	-14
NY	MOUNT VERNON	COOP	-14
NY	FARMINGDALE 2 NE	COOP	-12
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	-12
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	-11
NY	CUTCHOGUE	COOP	-10

[NorthShoreWx]

2 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

https://www.met.ie/latest-reports/observations

Malin Head in Donegal failed as well.  If you are ever in Ireland, it's fun visiting these automated stations.

Hopefully the authority in Ireland can verify these historic measurements soon.

https://www.rte.ie/

I think Mace Head has a manned observatory, but I might be mistaken.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

February 1934 was the last time we had widespread -10° to -20° readings near the coast.

Monthly Data for February 1934 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	-26
NY	WALDEN 2 NE	COOP	-24
NY	CARMEL	COOP	-24
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	-21
CT	COLCHESTER 2 W	COOP	-21
CT	NORWALK	COOP	-20
CT	BRIDGEPORT	COOP	-20
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	-19
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	-19
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	-18
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	-18
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	-17
NJ	RIDGEFIELD	COOP	-17
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	-17
CT	NEW LONDON	COOP	-17
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	-16
CT	WATERBURY ANACONDA	COOP	-16
CT	WATERBURY CITY HALL	COOP	-16
NJ	ELIZABETH	COOP	-15
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	-15
NJ	JERSEY CITY	COOP	-14
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	-14
NY	WORLD TRADE CENTER	WBAN	-14
NY	FLUSHING	COOP	-14
NY	MOUNT VERNON	COOP	-14
NY	FARMINGDALE 2 NE	COOP	-12
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	-12
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	-11
NY	CUTCHOGUE	COOP	-10

But Chris, Westhampton Beach regularly goes below zero and even Newark has gotten close to -10 many times during the 80s as well as Philly, so this particular stat might be because of UHI? Though the more recent change in not getting below zero arctic outbreaks as frequently at our city airports and the park since 1994 might be be more climate related.