January 2025

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Isn't the general rule of thumb that blocking tends to return in a season where it's predominantly negative in December? If I'm not mistaken Don provided statistics to this effect at some point. Not sure if La Nina counters that. 

Regarding the upcoming pattern 100% agree we would almost root for a strong cutter to allow for a weaker follow-up wave to come through. I forgot the year, it may have been 2008, however we received a 6 to 10 inch snowfall regionally from a follow-up wave which was a lot more than expected. Even if the follow-up wave is weak sometimes we can get a heavy snowfall.

I think one thing that will be different in February and is something we haven’t seen all winter long is the SE ridge finally making an appearance. Ever since the cold pattern kicked in the day after Thanksgiving, the SE ridge has been absent. @bluewave has already mentioned it a few times but it does fit February Niña climo as does -PNA

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think one thing that will be different in February and is something we haven’t seen all winter long is the SE ridge finally making an appearance. Ever since the cold pattern kicked in the day after Thanksgiving, the SE ridge has been absent. @bluewave has already mentioned it a few times but it does fit February Niña climo as does -PNA

I think the big question is, and it was stated in the Middle Atlantic forum, will winter return at the end of February through March, which tends to happen in La niñas. La niñas typically start cold however this stretch lasted a couple weeks longer than normal, which if the aforementioned is true, could lead to a 2 to 3 week warm up before falling back into a more favorable pattern. 

All speculative of course. Nearly going off of La Nina's of the past. Particularly, since we seem to have reverted back to the 1970 through 1999 pattern, the late '80s early '90s were famously March saved the winters. Of course saved meaning turning a 10 inch snowfall year to a 15 inch snowball year LOL.

 

[lee59]

Got down to 9 here. Would have been lower but high clouds prevented it.

[winterwarlock]

My 3 day lows in Hillsborough 

 

1/21: -1

1/22: -9

1/23: -3

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

My 3 day lows in Hillsborough 

 

1/21: -1

1/22: -9

1/23: -3

Wow 

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Agree. No, you are not going to torch. But with the NAO/AO going very positive and no +PNA/ridge west off the west coast you are going to see SE ridge flexing and the risk of cutters/inland runners. It’s definitely not a “KU” look at all

It also means less snow in the Piedmont and panhandle.  Good for us.

[bluewave]

This is going to be one of the most severe sting jet wind events for Ireland in recent times.

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think the big question is, and it was stated in the Middle Atlantic forum, will winter return at the end of February through March, which tends to happen in La niñas. La niñas typically start cold however this stretch lasted a couple weeks longer than normal, which if the aforementioned is true, could lead to a 2 to 3 week warm up before falling back into a more favorable pattern. 

All speculative of course. Nearly going off of La Nina's of the past. Particularly, since we seem to have reverted back to the 1970 through 1999 pattern, the late '80s early '90s were famously March saved the winters. Of course saved meaning turning a 10 inch snowfall year to a 15 inch snowball year LOL.

 

Return? 
 

do you really see some huge torch coming? 

[snowman19]

15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think the big question is, and it was stated in the Middle Atlantic forum, will winter return at the end of February through March, which tends to happen in La niñas. La niñas typically start cold however this stretch lasted a couple weeks longer than normal, which if the aforementioned is true, could lead to a 2 to 3 week warm up before falling back into a more favorable pattern. 

All speculative of course. Nearly going off of La Nina's of the past. Particularly, since we seem to have reverted back to the 1970 through 1999 pattern, the late '80s early '90s were famously March saved the winters. Of course saved meaning turning a 10 inch snowfall year to a 15 inch snowball year LOL.

 

With the exception of March, 2018, which was driven by a record breaking, historic SSWE in mid-February; resulted in severe -NAO/-AO blocking and a major arctic outbreak, March’s over the last 10+ years have not been kind to us snow wise. Does that change this March? I have no idea

[WestBabylonWeather]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is going to be one of the most severe sting jet wind events for Ireland in recent times.

My family in cork/Middleton still talking about the recent floods they had. 

[TJW014]

On track here for the driest January on record. Sitting at .29" (inc. melted snow). I believe the record for NJ is 0.51" in 1981. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong

[TJW014]

Worth mentioning we finally dipped below zero this morning. Down to -2. Last two mornings were 9 and 13. 

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is going to be one of the most severe sting jet wind events for Ireland in recent times.

Holy moly they're saying gusts up to 100mph...wow. 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

My family in cork/Middleton still talking about the recent floods they had. 

Ireland is a really beautiful country. Had some friends that did a guided tour during the fall for the first time and they loved it. When I lived back in Long Beach we had a very large Irish community in the West End. 

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Return? 
 

do you really see some huge torch coming? 

Not seeing a huge torch, however it will be different than what we have seen so far as the blocking will have disappeared. The return would be to below average temperatures and hopefully precipitation chances if it does occur.

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

With the exception of March, 2018, which was driven by a record breaking, historic SSWE in mid-February; resulted in severe -NAO/-AO blocking and a major arctic outbreak, March’s over the last 10+ years have not been kind to us snow wise. Does that change this March? I have no idea

It seems that March is decadal. 2000 through 2010 we did not have much snowfall in March, however, 2011 through 2020 we had a few good marches like 2011 (I believe it was March not February that we had the 4.5 inch overrunning event), 2013, 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2019. 2019 was better for the northern half of this forum.

Agreed that 2018 was a historic event. However purely looking from a statistical perspective I believe Don had stats about returning blocking when it existed in December. Perhaps I am mistaken on that. 

Out of curiosity other than an sswe, what else would cause blocking? I believe a few years back the mjo went off the charts literally in phase 6 which resulted in the polar vortex getting disrupted. So it appears that a strong mjo wave could also lead to blocking like an SSwe. What else would cause it that we can look for.

[Allsnow]

12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not seeing a huge torch, however it will be different than what we have seen so far as the blocking will have disappeared. The return would be to below average temperatures and hopefully precipitation chances if it does occur.

The blocking has gotten us nothing 

 

ensembles already have the next cold shot after the 31st on the guidance for the first week of February 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The blocking has gotten us nothing 

 

ensembles already have the next cold shot after the 31st on the guidance for the first week of February 

Just because blocking failed us last time does not mean it would not benefit us next time. The intensity of the block coupled with shorter wavelengths may have a vastly different outcome than what we saw. I would gladly take the return of blocking.

I am not looking at historically high temps or a torch. We will have more Southeast ridge influence, which as I discussed with Brooklyn, could result in favorable follow-up wave scenarios (as we all know cutter risk exist when there is a lack of blocking). We will likely still have the EPO negative, which further allows for the chance of a follow-up wave.

[Allsnow]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Just because blocking failed us last time does not mean it would not benefit us next time. The intensity of the block coupled with shorter wavelengths may have a vastly different outcome than what we saw. I would gladly take the return of blocking.

I am not looking at historically high temps or a torch. We will have more Southeast ridge influence, which as I discussed with Brooklyn, could result in favorable follow-up wave scenarios (as we all know cutter risk exist when there is a lack of blocking). We will likely still have the EPO negative, which further allows for the chance of a follow-up wave.

The blocking returned in March 2014

 

it was cold and dry 

[WestBabylonWeather]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Ireland is a really beautiful country. Had some friends that did a guided tour during the fall for the first time and they loved it. When I lived back in Long Beach we had a very large Irish community in the West End. 

I’ve been to Irish day in Long Beach several times. 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I’ve been to Irish day in Long Beach several times. 

Same here! 

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The blocking returned in March 2014

 

it was cold and dry 

Did we have blocking in March 2014? I thought that was the year of the negative EPO and the polar vortex sitting on top of us, acting as a steering/blocking mechanism. 

Regardless, you're telling me you would rather not get blocking again this year if you had a choice? Even though statistically as Don has pointed out blocking favors 6 + events.

[FPizz]

42 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

My 3 day lows in Hillsborough 

 

1/21: -1

1/22: -9

1/23: -3

Nice, 3 below zero days in a row.  Very rare!  

I just missed the 3 days below zero, -1, -5, 0.5

[winterwarlock]

39 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Wow 

Well its the official spot at Hillsborough  Duke which gives really hot readings in summer but radiates really good in the winter

 

I dont recall a 3 day stretch below zero lows since maybe the 80s

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Well its the official spot at Hillsborough  Duke which gives really hot readings in summer but radiates really good in the winter

 

I dont recall a 3 day stretch below zero lows since maybe the 80s

I’m not questioning the details, but that’s a very impressive stretch for somerset county. 
 

Im sure the snow pack is helping as that area got between 4-6 inches 

[Allsnow]

 

[Allsnow]

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Did we have blocking in March 2014? I thought that was the year of the negative EPO and the polar vortex sitting on top of us, acting as a steering/blocking mechanism. 

Regardless, you're telling me you would rather not get blocking again this year if you had a choice? Even though statistically as Don has pointed out blocking favors 6 + events.

March hasn’t been snowy here in years. Looks at @bluewavestats 

[lee59]

This cold spell really emphasized the difference between urban and rural areas with such good radiational cooling.

[winterwarlock]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I’m not questioning the details, but that’s a very impressive stretch for somerset county. 
 

Im sure the snow pack is helping as that area got between 4-6 inches 

We got about 4 which was better than most

 

Is today the anniversary  of a 20 inch storm from January 2016?

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

March hasn’t been snowy here in years. Looks at @bluewavestats 

It seems to be periodic in nature. 

2000 through 2010 March snowfall was very low. 

2011 through 2020 we had a number of snowfalls in march. 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019. 

Now we are back to a period of non snowy marches. However, even in the 2000 through 2010 period we had the occasional snowfall in March. Therefore we cannot assume that it will not snow this March just because we are in a 10-year period that is not favorable for march snow. Were the odds better 1990 through 1999, or 2011 through 2019, yes. However it did snow in March 2000 through 2010. Therefore I cannot see any reason to state that it can't snow this March unless I am missing something.