January 2025

[NorthShoreWx]

7 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

It's similar or even a degree or two colder than in Orange County, so you can surmise where the clouds are.

Can see it on the IR satellite too:

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

 

Sorry this link seems not to be working.

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

1 at FOX

They basically have been in the single digits since the sun set.

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

 

This is FOX 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KFOK

[NorthShoreWx]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

This is FOX 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KFOK

They might go sub zero, but once the breeze turns parallel to or off the ocean, they'll rise pretty quickly.

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

They might go sub zero, but once the breeze turns parallel to or off the ocean, they'll rise pretty quickly.

Fake cold

[Volcanic Winter]

3 here atm, wasn’t quite expecting the lowest temps tonight!

[NorthShoreWx]

42 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Fake cold

You said it, not me.

 

Shallow cold 

https://wx1.bnl.gov/graph.html

 

[psv88]

7 here now. Lowest of the season. 

[psv88]

It’s 10 degrees in northern Florida 

[Rjay]

18 minutes ago, psv88 said:

7 here now. Lowest of the season. 

Will be shocked if FOX doesnt go below.  0 there right now. 

[Volcanic Winter]

Just hit 2, wow! 

[Allsnow]

4 hours ago, Rjay said:

Will be shocked if FOX doesnt go below.  0 there right now. 

Mt holly his zero 

 

 

[dmillz25]

Friend in Toms River said it is -1 there

[bluewave]

Both the core of cold and the storm track got suppressed to our south this month. This has become a common occurrence in recent years. In the old days the Northeast would have been much colder when places to our south were this cold. Just goes to show how the geographic footprint of the Arctic outbreaks has been shrinking in recent years. We also saw this in January 2019 and February 2021. 
 

 

[MJO812]

18 here

[jm1220]

11 here. WAA started overnight which kept us from hitting zero. 

[EastonSN+]

At the end of the run, however, it looks like the EPO is turning negative again which would continue the seasonal trend. 

[EastonSN+]

12 hours ago, Yaz said:

Interesting. Thanks.

1. How strong is the correlation between MJO phase and temperature?
 

2. And how good are the projections of MJO progression. 
 

Back when I studied these types of things, the material was often a bit short in length and lacking a lot of detail. 
 

-Greg

This question would be better answered by Don or BlueWave.

Generally speaking 781 and 2 are colder and 345 and 6 are warmer. However that changes with the enso and the month of the year. For instance in a la nina February phase 3 is no longer warm it's cold. 

 

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

At the end of the run, however, it looks like the EPO is turning negative again which would continue the seasonal trend. 

The difference now is that we are about to see both the NAO/AO go very positive. The stratosphere is projected to get record cold and the SPV is going to go on steroids and is going to couple with the troposphere. That coupling is something we haven’t seen thus far. The ++NAO going to allow the SE ridge to really flex, especially with the ridge way off the west coast

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

At the end of the run, however, it looks like the EPO is turning negative again which would continue the seasonal trend. 

you are never going to get a warm pattern with the TPV on this side of the globe and -EPO. not happening

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you are never going to get a warm pattern with the TPV on this side of the globe and -EPO. not happening

Agree. No, you are not going to torch. But with the NAO/AO going very positive and no +PNA/ridge west off the west coast you are going to see SE ridge flexing and the risk of cutters/inland runners. It’s definitely not a “KU” look at all

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agree. No, you are not going to torch. But with the NAO/AO going very positive and no +PNA/ridge west off the west coast you are going to see SE ridge flexing and the risk of cutters/inland runners. It’s definitely not a “KU” look at all

no, it isn't, though I could see a cutter dragging down cold air nearby and establishing a baroclinic zone farther south for a second wave to take advantage of. it's going to be quite changeable but will present chances... doubt it's persistently cold or warm

[WestBabylonWeather]

No torch. So what winter should be. 

[EastonSN+]

49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Both the core of cold and the storm track got suppressed to our south this month. This has become a common occurrence in recent years. In the old days the Northeast would have been much colder when places to our south were this cold. Just goes to show how the geographic footprint of the Arctic outbreaks has been shrinking in recent years. We also saw this in January 2019 and February 2021. 
 

 

What's insane is Ocean City Maryland seems to be outperforming my neck of the woods since 2018 with regards to snowfall percentage of average.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

What's insane is Ocean City Maryland seems to be outperforming my neck of the woods since 2018 with regards to snowfall percentage of average.

For Caribou, Maine to go +4.9 so far through January 22nd and Charleston, West Virginia -10.7° is a first. This almost reminds me of all the over the top warm ups we have seen in recent years. But now during the Arctic outbreaks the warmest relative to the means are further north into New England.

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Friend in Toms River said it is -1 there

It appears colder in southern NJ than even Rockland County in NY?

[EastonSN+]

24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

no, it isn't, though I could see a cutter dragging down cold air nearby and establishing a baroclinic zone farther south for a second wave to take advantage of. it's going to be quite changeable but will present chances... doubt it's persistently cold or warm

Isn't the general rule of thumb that blocking tends to return in a season where it's predominantly negative in December? If I'm not mistaken Don provided statistics to this effect at some point. Not sure if La Nina counters that. 

Regarding the upcoming pattern 100% agree we would almost root for a strong cutter to allow for a weaker follow-up wave to come through. I forgot the year, it may have been 2008, however we received a 6 to 10 inch snowfall regionally from a follow-up wave which was a lot more than expected. Even if the follow-up wave is weak sometimes we can get a heavy snowfall.

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The difference now is that we are about to see both the NAO/AO go very positive. The stratosphere is projected to get record cold and the SPV is going to go on steroids and is going to couple with the troposphere. That coupling is something we haven’t seen thus far. The ++NAO going to allow the SE ridge to really flex, especially with the ridge way off the west coast

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Very extreme windstorm headed for Ireland caused them to send the hurricane hunters over there.

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Isn't the general rule of thumb that blocking tends to return in a season where it's predominantly negative in December? If I'm not mistaken Don provided statistics to this effect at some point. Not sure if La Nina counters that. 

Regarding the upcoming pattern 100% agree we would almost root for a strong cutter to allow for a weaker follow-up wave to come through. I forgot the year, it may have been 2008, however we received a 6 to 10 inch snowfall regionally from a follow-up wave which was a lot more than expected. Even if the follow-up wave is weak sometimes we can get a heavy snowfall.

wouldn't be shocking if it popped up again in March, but blocking is a wildcard. I wasn't expecting it to be nearly as blocky as it has been so far this year. if you told me that the Mid-Atlantic and South would do the best through late Jan I would have laughed

[Allsnow]

Mt Holly has made it down to -1