January 2025

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

We will radiate better here than last night, even if some clouds do move in.  Less than 2 miles from the sound, with clouds and a north breeze off the water, we didn't radiate at all last night and the low was 13.5°.  Tonight's forecasted low is 13° and we are already down to 14°.  The main difference is calmer winds, or a light breeze with a southerly component.  North shore microclimates.

Down to 9 here. Since the last 2 nights got down to mid single digits here, wonder if I make a run at 0 tonight. 

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

A lot of places are having a tough time making enough snow, take a look at trail counts at places like Catamount and a few others that have missed out on decent natural snow. If we don't get some r**n soon it's going to get dicey.

True some areas are starting to have issues with low water in their snowmaking retention ponds. Many though are just small systems. Catamount, while they have pumped a ton into snowmaking, still have a small system. Places like Belleayre with massive snowmaking systems have been 100% open on snowmaking trails since before Christmas. Unfortunately, they have to invest more in snowmaking to continue to be viable in the future. Many of the small resorts won't be able to make it. Sad but we are already seeing stressors out there.

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

That March--April 2018 period wasn't particularly amazing in the City proper. 3 of those storms were white rain, at least in Manhattan.

Yep, I think the last one was best plus the one in April.

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

It depends on your interest in snow.  Some people never ski and just want to see snow fall.  For these people snow is more important than cold weather.

If you're a skiier than cold weather is more important than snow because the ski areas can always make their own snow.

 

I get that. While I think people that like watching snow, but don't do anything with that snow are a bit strange, I get it. Snow is always awesome because it does tend to force us to a slower pace of life, and honestly I think that is why a lot of people like it. But honestly, I hate when we get a big snow storm followed by 50+ degrees is awful.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said:

I get that. While I think people that like watching snow, but don't do anything with that snow are a bit strange, I get it. Snow is always awesome because it does tend to force us to a slower pace of life, and honestly I think that is why a lot of people like it. But honestly, I hate when we get a big snow storm followed by 50+ degrees is awful.

Crime rates are also much lower in the winter than they are in the summer and snow (while it's still clean and not contaminated with chemicals) does make everything look prettier and cleaner.

[Monty]

3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I get that. While I think people that like watching snow, but don't do anything with that snow are a bit strange, I get it. Snow is always awesome because it does tend to force us to a slower pace of life, and honestly I think that is why a lot of people like it. But honestly, I hate when we get a big snow storm followed by 50+ degrees is awful.

Yes, with pace of life faster than ever, I love the forced pause a heavy snow brings upon everyone. 

[Yaz]

10 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

MJO phase 3 is cold, and we will be leaving this phase by EOM. 

Reading the MA forum there seems to be a good chance late February and March will be colder, in line with La Nina and the projected MJO progression. We shall see. Of course we need moisture.

Interesting. Thanks.

1. How strong is the correlation between MJO phase and temperature?
 

2. And how good are the projections of MJO progression. 
 

Back when I studied these types of things, the material was often a bit short in length and lacking a lot of detail. 
 

-Greg

[ForestHillWx]

Down to 10. Should bottom at or near zero tonight. 

[MJO812]

Clipper more robust

[psv88]

Down to 12. Coldest night of the year coming up 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Next colder day was in January 1985, Don?

January 29, 1988: -21

[MJO812]

20 here

[Allsnow]

Gefs continue to trend stronger with the -epo to start February 

[Snowshack]

10f in Wading River 

[Rjay]

12 degrees with nothing to track 

[Roger Smith]

A few odds and ends ... there already is a year zero in astronomical tables, but as stated in  an earlier post, not in historical time frames ... If you looked up an astronomical event listed as being in January, 4 BC, that event would be in 5 BC (or BCE as some say) if compared to any historical accounts. Of course, people alive then were not aware of the reason for numbering the year 1 A.D. as we do (and have done since about 450 A.D.), instead, if one were a citizen of the Roman empire, years would have been numbered from the founding of Rome, and if an observant Jew, even as today, from very ancient Biblical events (it was already a year in the 3000's). 

First calculations of the probable birth year of Jesus were off by about four years, so they identified "25 Dec of 1 B.C." as what by their logic was actually 25 Dec of 4 A.D. (an error crept into calculations of periods of rule of Roman emperors after Augustus Caesar). Also it is quite likely that Jesus was born not in late December but closer to end of February if we are to believe that sheperds were out in fields (to tend to newborn lambs in season). It is quite possible that the actual birth date of Jesus was something like Feb 25, 4 B.C. (or 5 B.C.) in a calendar that drops the year zero, or Feb 25, 3 B.C. (or 4 B.C.) set in the astronomical calendar system. 

... ...

On a different topic, at 0.45" at NYC, still 0.13" below driest January (1981), and at 30.4 F currently colder than final values of 101 of 155 previous Jans, and equal to one (1903). If we apply corrections for urban heat island, 2025 is presently colder than another 15 that, while colder in absolute terms, would likely be warmer if experienced with present urban heat island (using a rather conservative 2.0 F total correction applied in ten stages to data after 1881, and flat-lined since 1981).

If the month ends a bit colder at say 30.0 F, it will then rank t51 coldest of 156 (with 1923), and after applying u.h.i. corrections, at 28.0 F In pre-1881 no-heat-island comparison, ranking 39th coldest, just ahead of 1984 and 2015. So a fairly impressive cold January and it could end up near top two or three driest also, quite a similar outcome overall to 1963, 1970 and 1981 (rank colder by 2-3 F). 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

12 degrees with nothing to track 

Terrible. Can’t wait for spring 

[SnoSki14]

14 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Terrible. Can’t wait for spring 

Reminder that we're still under a moderate to severe drought. If things don't reverse then we're in trouble come summertime 

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Crime rates are also much lower in the winter than they are in the summer and snow (while it's still clean and not contaminated with chemicals) does make everything look prettier and cleaner.

The vast majority of people hate it. I’ve been hearing nothing but complaints over the recent snow.

[jm1220]

39 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Reminder that we're still under a moderate to severe drought. If things don't reverse then we're in trouble come summertime 

When the pattern turns back to cutters they'll come through like clockwork. They sure did in December.

[Brasiluvsnow]

New City checking in at 11 degrees 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

35 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

The vast majority of people hate it. I’ve been hearing nothing but complaints over the recent snow.

I think it depends where you live. In a more urban setting I get the hatred it's a pain in the ass, disrupts everything and usually looks like shot after a couple of days. In less crowded suburban or rural settings there's nothing like it.
 

I judge my winter grades more by how many days of snow cover I have than by what falls in total. 

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Crime rates are also much lower in the winter than they are in the summer and snow (while it's still clean and not contaminated with chemicals) does make everything look prettier and cleaner.

Thats one of the reasons why I love winter. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

24 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I think it depends where you live. In a more urban setting I get the hatred it's a pain in the ass, disrupts everything and usually looks like shot after a couple of days. In less crowded suburban or rural settings there's nothing like it.
 

I judge my winter grades more by how many days of snow cover I have than by what falls in total. 

I generally agree.  I'll take the 1.5" tundra we've got right now for all of January over two 6" fast melters that don't want to stick to the street.  Naturally it doesn't hold up at the extremes though.  Once you approach a foot, then I might take that option even if it's gone in two days.

[jm1220]

Lots of mid to upper single digits in my area. 

[NorthShoreWx]

4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Down to 9 here. Since the last 2 nights got down to mid single digits here, wonder if I make a run at 0 tonight. 

You might have a shot if the clouds hold off.  Light southwest surface wind can be good for radiation on the north shore.  Unless it's true WAA, that breeze might not make it over the moraine...and it's not off the sound.  I'm sure I've said this before, but our best radiational cooling conditions are often 1 night after KFOK's.

Down to 9 here, 4 degrees lower than this morning's toasty minimum.  The day before we bottomed at just under 7⁰.

Temp will either rise towards 4am as per the NWS forecast, or the north shore may stay decoupled a little longer and a few spots do hit 0.

[ForestHillWx]

Down to 5. In the valley it’s looking like anywhere from 1-3 at the moment. 

[NorthShoreWx]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Lots of mid to upper single digits in my area. 

There's some 2s and 3s popping up in the pine barrens and some 4s and 5s in NW Suffolk.  It's similar or even a degree or two colder than in Orange County, so you can surmise where the clouds are.

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

It's similar or even a degree or two colder than in Orange County, so you can surmise where the clouds are.

-13C here

[Rjay]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Lots of mid to upper single digits in my area. 

1 at FOX