January 2025

[MJO812]

We all wanted the cold and it has been a cold winter but really dry which stinks because we could of had alot of snow if things panned our way.

 

At least we had a white Christmas .

[anthonymm]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If NYC doesn’t make it to 10 inches during the official winter season; between now and March 20th (1st day of astronomical spring) that would be pretty insane. Nothing looks likely the rest of this month, through 1/31. But to go the rest of the way, through all of February and up to March 20th with less than 10 inches, that would be nuts…..

Why would that be nuts exactly? It’s happened the last two years and I don’t think that’s mere coincidence. It’s a suggestion of the type of multiyear pattern we’re in. The coastal NE cities are largely taking a break from snowfall for the time being. Would be pretty surprised if central park ends up with even one more moderate snowfall event. 

[NEG NAO]

17 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

We’re stuck in a very low snowfall pattern. No signs of appreciable amounts of snow later on. I doubt central park reaches 15” this winter. I would not be surprised if they dont even reach 10”. 

we are stuck in a low precip pattern - we would have more snow already if we didn't have this dry non-amplified fast flow pattern the entire winter so far

[Allsnow]

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully, NYC can get over 10” this season. The La Niña seasonal average for NYC with under 10” by 01-31 has been 14.3” since 1970. The only La Niña year that they couldn’t do it was 2012. 
 

NYC La Niña snowfall by 01-31 under 10” and seasonal total

2025….5.8”……….?

2012….7.2”………7.4”

2008…2.9”….….11.9”

2000…9.5”……..16.3”

1999….6.5”…….12.7”

1986….3.1”…….13.0”

1976….7.9”….…17.3”

1975….2.2”……13.1”

1972….2.8”…..22.9”

AVG…………….14.3”

 

Well That's not promising. Maybe we can break the norm this year.

[bluewave]

We will need a return to the BM KU snowstorms well before 28-29 for PHL, NYC, and BOS to avoid their lowest snowfall decade.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	T	1.2	4.7	3.6	0.1	0.0	8.9
2024-2025	0.0	T	0.3	4.6	M	M	M	4.9
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	8.0	3.2	0.0	0.0	11.2
2022-2023	T	0.0	T	T	0.3	T	0.0	0.3
2021-2022	0.0	0.0	T	12.1	0.4	0.4	0.0	12.9
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	6.6	3.0	14.3	0.0	0.0	23.9
2019-2020	0.0	T	0.1	0.2	T	0.0	0.0	0.3

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	T	2.7	4.2	7.1	0.1	T	12.8
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	2.8	3.0	M	M	M	5.8
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	2.3	5.2	T	0.0	7.5
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	T	2.2	0.1	0.0	2.3
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	15.3	2.0	0.4	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	10.5	2.1	26.0	T	0.0	38.6
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	2.5	2.3	T	T	T	4.8

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.7	T	5.3	11.3	7.0	0.6	0.2	23.9
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	5.7	6.8	M	M	M	12.5
2023-2024	0.0	T	0.2	9.0	0.5	T	0.1	9.8
2022-2023	0.0	T	1.0	6.9	3.6	0.9	0.0	12.4
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.4	36.2	15.3	2.1	T	54.0
2020-2021	4.3	T	13.0	5.8	15.3	0.1	0.1	38.6
2019-2020	0.0	T	11.5	3.1	0.5	T	0.7	15.8

[SnowGoose69]

13 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Why would that be nuts exactly? It’s happened the last two years and I don’t think that’s mere coincidence. It’s a suggestion of the type of multiyear pattern we’re in. The coastal NE cities are largely taking a break from snowfall for the time being. Would be pretty surprised if central park ends up with even one more moderate snowfall event. 

NYC actually had several 80s winters with only 12-18 inches or so total snow that were pretty cold winters.  That is somewhat unrepresentative of the area as a whole though as many of those winter NYC was a snow hole relative to Long Island and places inland 

[MJO812]

Boston already has more snow than last winter. How about NYC ?

 

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We will need a return to the BM KU snowstorms well before 28-29 for PHL, NYC, and BOS to avoid their lowest snowfall decade.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	T	1.2	4.7	3.6	0.1	0.0	8.9
2024-2025	0.0	T	0.3	4.6	M	M	M	4.9
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	8.0	3.2	0.0	0.0	11.2
2022-2023	T	0.0	T	T	0.3	T	0.0	0.3
2021-2022	0.0	0.0	T	12.1	0.4	0.4	0.0	12.9
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	6.6	3.0	14.3	0.0	0.0	23.9
2019-2020	0.0	T	0.1	0.2	T	0.0	0.0	0.3

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	T	2.7	4.2	7.1	0.1	T	12.8
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	2.8	3.0	M	M	M	5.8
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	2.3	5.2	T	0.0	7.5
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	T	2.2	0.1	0.0	2.3
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	15.3	2.0	0.4	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	10.5	2.1	26.0	T	0.0	38.6
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	2.5	2.3	T	T	T	4.8

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.7	T	5.3	11.3	7.0	0.6	0.2	23.9
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	5.7	6.8	M	M	M	12.5
2023-2024	0.0	T	0.2	9.0	0.5	T	0.1	9.8
2022-2023	0.0	T	1.0	6.9	3.6	0.9	0.0	12.4
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.4	36.2	15.3	2.1	T	54.0
2020-2021	4.3	T	13.0	5.8	15.3	0.1	0.1	38.6
2019-2020	0.0	T	11.5	3.1	0.5	T	0.7	15.8

Thanks for this,

Just out of curiosity, why do you go with 19/20 instead of 20/21 to commence like NWS does? Not arguing just curious. 

If we go the NWS path we are of course in better shape for the decade so far.

[NEG NAO]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Boston already has more snow than last winter. How about NYC ?

 

NYC is represented by CP and its unexplained low snowfall measurements...........

[MJO812]

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

I hope for snow but a LaNina winter...bombing away Great Lakes (LES) and we had what I kind of thought was our most favorable situation in the winter... plenty of cold air.  Saw CMCE but none of the modeling is showing consensus on a date and temps seems to be warming.  

I cross my fingers and hope for a big comeback in Feb-early March.  It CAN happen.  Just a little pessimistic since we've had a colder than normal DEC and much of JAN. I dont know what will happen but odds might not be in our favor?  

Don might have a lot more to say based on all his stats. Don- any comment these last 8 weeks of winter for CP?

 

In general, La Niña winters with less than 10" total snowfall through January haven't fared well during February or March.

All winters since 1949-50:
Mean February Snow: 8.9"; Mean March Snow: 4.5"

All La Niña Winters/Less than 10" Snow through January 31:
Mean February Snow: 4.2"; Mean March Snow: 3.7"

All La Niña Winters/10" or More Snow through January 31:
Mean February Snow: 9.2"; Mean March Snow: 4.7"

With the February AO possibly averaging positive:

All La Niña Winters: February AO > 0:
Mean February Snow: 6.1"; Mean March Snow: 3.5"

All La Niña Winters: February AO average of +0.5 or above:
Mean February Snow: 4.1"; Mean March Snow: 1.3"

Three out of five La Niña winters with a December PNA+ saw 10" or more snow in March. However, all three had 10" or more seasonal snowfall through January 31st.

Sample sizes are small, so there is considerable sample size uncertainty.

[anthonymm]

50 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

NYC actually had several 80s winters with only 12-18 inches or so total snow that were pretty cold winters.  That is somewhat unrepresentative of the area as a whole though as many of those winter NYC was a snow hole relative to Long Island and places inland 

It’s a lower snowfall cycle than the 80s for NYC by quite a bit. About half of the 80s years had >20” of snow, and the mean was just under 20. Our mean for the 20s is literally about 12” as you can see in the post above. 

[Dark Star]

21 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

It’s a lower snowfall cycle than the 80s for NYC by quite a bit. About half of the 80s years had >20” of snow, and the mean was just under 20. Our mean for the 20s is literally about 12” as you can see in the post above. 

And at lest this winter, we are getting cold air.  which was nowhere to be found the last few years.  In those years, I, myself included, would be "cancelling" winter right about now.  Based on my definition of winter, if you haven't had any cold or snow by the end of January, and nothing looks good in the long range progs by the first week or two for February, then it is time to move on.  This season, at January 22, 2024, we have seen WINTER, and it appears there is more winter to come on the foreseeable horizon...

[winterwx21]

It got down to 2 degrees here this morning. I see there were other Piscataway stations that went below zero. 

[Sampson]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

We all wanted the cold and it has been a cold winter but really dry which stinks because we could of had alot of snow if things panned our way.

 

At least we had a white Christmas .

I’m just happy we have winter temperatures and a more sustained cold period. Seems like we had snow cover since 12/20 or so minus a few days. 

[brooklynwx99]

notice the trend for a stronger Pacific jet as we move forward in time, which has been common this year... this helps push the Aleutian ridging closer to AK, allowing the trough in the Rockies to push east a bit more. would be nice to see this keep going

[RU848789]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Taken from the Middle Atlantic thread. They seem to be optimistic for late February into March. Basically following the mjo passage.

Surprised not more chatter about the 6Z AIFS, which shows about 3/4-1" QPF falling with temps <32F for all but the immediate coast in our region on 2/1.  Model has been pretty deadly recently, but this is still 10 days away...

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

notice the trend for a stronger Pacific jet as we move forward in time, which has been common this year... this helps push the Aleutian ridging closer to AK, allowing the trough in the Rockies to push east a bit more. would be nice to see this keep going

 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for this,

Just out of curiosity, why do you go with 19/20 instead of 20/21 to commence like NWS does? Not arguing just curious. 

If we go the NWS path we are of course in better shape for the decade so far.

They do it that way since the NCDC climate normals periods run through the first full year of each new cardinal decade. So the new 30 year normals period goes into effect for the 2nd winter starting in January of each new cardinal decade. Most people consider that the 2020s started in January 2020. The same way when we think of the 2010s we remember the great 09-10 record snowfall winter as kicking off that new decade. Cardinal decades are more intuitive to most than using the ordinal method.

Cardinal Decades

Cardinal decades are decades based on the plain cardinal numbers. This groups years together based on what the numbers start with. 1970–1979 were "the '70s."

Cardinal decades do not exactly align with ordinal decades. This is because "the 0s" only had nine years due to there not being a year zero. This means any year ending in "10" will be part of the previous ordinal decade and the next cardinal decade.

Cardinal decades are still just arbitrary delineations of time, like most of our calendar systems, but they are more practical than ordinal decades at least. Most people intuitively think of decades in the cardinal sense. We typically will refer to "the roaring '20s," "the '90s," or even "the aughts." I have literally never heard someone say "the 193rd decade."

 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, bluewave said:

Still one of my favorite blizzards of all time. Probably the most lightning that I have seen with a snow event. That storm with the 3 consecutive record lows would have been an impressive April event even during the Little Ice Age. 

It was my first ever snowstorm memory.  I only wish I could experience it again, but even at the age of 8 I was calling 976-1212 every hour for updates (to my parents chagrin) and woke up at 3 am to see the snow falling in the streetlamps on Ocean Parkway in Brooklyn where I lived at the time.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, anthonymm said:

It’s a lower snowfall cycle than the 80s for NYC by quite a bit. About half of the 80s years had >20” of snow, and the mean was just under 20. Our mean for the 20s is literally about 12” as you can see in the post above. 

when we talk about the 80s we're really talking about the late 80s, the early 80s were much better.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

that Milton, FL state record has been upped to 9.8 inches now, basically 10"

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

we are stuck in a low precip pattern - we would have more snow already if we didn't have this dry non-amplified fast flow pattern the entire winter so far

and that doesn't look to change anytime soon.

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, JetsPens87 said:

What's the airport at officially though

They finished at 8.0 but there was a site just east of the city that reported 11.5

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

They do it that way since the NCDC climate normals periods run through the first full year of each new cardinal decade. So the new 30 year normals period goes into effect for the 2nd winter starting in January of each new cardinal decade. Most people consider that the 2020s started in January 2020. The same way when we think of the 2010s we remember the great 09-10 record snowfall winter as kicking off that new decade. Cardinal decades are more intuitive to most than using the ordinal method.

Cardinal Decades

Cardinal decades are decades based on the plain cardinal numbers. This groups years together based on what the numbers start with. 1970–1979 were "the '70s."

Cardinal decades do not exactly align with ordinal decades. This is because "the 0s" only had nine years due to there not being a year zero. This means any year ending in "10" will be part of the previous ordinal decade and the next cardinal decade.

Cardinal decades are still just arbitrary delineations of time, like most of our calendar systems, but they are more practical than ordinal decades at least. Most people intuitively think of decades in the cardinal sense. We typically will refer to "the roaring '20s," "the '90s," or even "the aughts." I have literally never heard someone say "the 193rd decade."

 

I really hate that term *the aughts* it sounds ancient and too much like *the eights*  why can't we just call it *the zeroes*?

I understand there was no year *zero* but now that we are smart enough that we know what zero means, why not go back and renumber the calendar and create a year zero? That would fix this entire mess and then the millennium would indeed begin on January 1, 2000.

 

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, Allsnow said:

1989 about to go down 

 

 

Lots of similarities between this month and December 1989 :-)

[donsutherland1]

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

that Milton, FL state record has been upped to 9.8 inches now, basically 10"

The 9.8" is listed as 2N Milton on the LSR.

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I really hate that term *the aughts* it sounds ancient and too much like *the eights*  why can't we just call it *the zeroes*?

I understand there was no year *zero* but now that we are smart enough that we know what zero means, why not go back and renumber the calendar and create a year zero? That would fix this entire mess and then the millennium would indeed begin on January 1, 2000.

 

We can simplify things even more and just look at any 10 year period for a place with at least a 60 year long snowfall measurement period. The lowest 10 year running snowfall average on record at JFK was 18.0” from 67-68 to 76-77. The current 7 year running average snowfall at JFK starting in 18-19 is down to 13.6” which is the lowest. I will update it again at the end of this season since we are just beyond the midpoint in a La Nina winter which usually has most of its snow by the end of January. The previous lowest 7 year running average was 15.8” from 85-86 to 91-92. That 7 year average jumped up in the following seasons due to the record snowfall in 93-94 and 95-96. The lowest previous 10 year running average snowfall ended in 76-77 at 18.0”. We had the record 77-78 season the next year. So we are really going to have to pick up the snowfall rates next 3 to 4 years in order to prevent the 2020s from becoming the lowest cardinal decade along with a new low for any 10 year period. JFK is representative of most of our 60 year+ climate sites across the whole area.

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We can simplify things even more and just look at any 10 year period for a place with at least a 60 year long snowfall measurement period. The lowest 10 year running snowfall average on record at JFK was 18.0” from 67-68 to 76-77. The current 7 year running average snowfall at JFK starting in 18-19 is down to 13.6” which is the lowest. I will update it again at the end of this season since we are just beyond the midpoint in a La Nina winter which usually has most of its snow by the end of January. The previous lowest 7 year running average was 15.8” from 85-86 to 91-92. That 7 year average jumped up in the following seasons due to the record snowfall in 93-94 and 95-96. The lowest previous 10 year running average snowfall ended in 76-77 at 18.0”. We had the record 77-78 season the next year. So we are really going to have to pick up the snowfall rates next 3 to 4 years in order to prevent the 2020s from becoming the lowest cardinal decade along with a new low for any 10 year period. JFK is representative of most of our 60 year+ climate sites across the whole area.

I'm glad that JFK and LGA finally have a 60 year climate record!  They both started in 1960 or just before?