January 2025

[EastonSN+]

36 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Looking ahead: I have no threads, at least not for a few days. 

Think we just had the worst week of winter... hopefully snowfall can make a comeback in FEB-March but a little concerned now that we might not see more than 5" the rest of the way at CP.  Coastal temps are looking marginal first week of Feb when qpf events become active. 

This add on I thought interesting this morning .. 5AM temps over snowcover >2".

 

Taken from the Middle Atlantic thread. They seem to be optimistic for late February into March. Basically following the mjo passage.

[psv88]

8 this morning, in line with forecast. Nothing too crazy out here in terms of the cold 

[wdrag]

I hope for snow but a LaNina winter...bombing away Great Lakes (LES) and we had what I kind of thought was our most favorable situation in the winter... plenty of cold air.  Saw CMCE but none of the modeling is showing consensus on a date and temps seems to be warming.  

I cross my fingers and hope for a big comeback in Feb-early March.  It CAN happen.  Just a little pessimistic since we've had a colder than normal DEC and much of JAN. I dont know what will happen but odds might not be in our favor?  

Don might have a lot more to say based on all his stats. Don- any comment these last 8 weeks of winter for CP?

 

[MANDA]

Low this morning of -1 here.

Again, I am at a higher elevation for my area at about 1000'.

I am sure it was colder down the "hill".

Still holding at 5" 100% coverage snow pack.

 

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Taken from the Middle Atlantic thread. They seem to be optimistic for late February into March. Basically following the mjo passage.

That's kinda what we said last year then we got our 2 best storms in mid February and then winter ended 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Taken from the Middle Atlantic thread. They seem to be optimistic for late February into March. Basically following the mjo passage.

Nice that we just had our snow event and it’s a lot better than brown ground, but ending on 4” snow in my case for Jan would still be lousy. In Feb hopefully we have more chances but if we revert to the normal Nina warm Feb, good chance we end the winter under 15” in NYC which given the average of 25-30” I would still rate an F. 

[NEG NAO]

21 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I hope for snow but a LaNina winter...bombing away Great Lakes (LES) and we had what I kind of thought was our most favorable situation in the winter... plenty of cold air.  Saw CMCE but none of the modeling is showing consensus on a date and temps seems to be warming.  

I cross my fingers and hope for a big comeback in Feb-early March.  It CAN happen.  Just a little pessimistic since we've had a colder than normal DEC and much of JAN. I dont know what will happen but odds might not be in our favor?  

Don might have a lot more to say based on all his stats. Don- any comment these last 8 weeks of winter for CP?

 

IMO with the MJO going towards the neutral center soon for a week or so then forecasted by the Euro to enter phases 8 -1 -2 through mid-February there will be continued Arctic outbreaks and they will tend to interact with the southern jet which will not be as far south as recent days/weeks as the southeast ridge is not as suppressed- so storm threats will continue to be on the table and its impossible to predict which ones will be actual snowstorms around here -BUT IMO any sustained warming or any lake cutter patterns will not be happening the next few weeks.....the main challenge now is to break this drought pattern that has persisted all winter...

[MANDA]

With the threat of additional snow this month near nil barring any surprises I will finish January with 8.2".  Most locations south and east of here was about one half that monthly total.  This past Sunday event of  6.1" was the largest event.  The rest of the monthly total was minor stuff.   While a decent monthly total I'm not sure it was worth "buckling up" for. 

[TheClimateChanger]

59 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

From the NWS New York X (formerly Twitter) feed:

Once again our weather balloon measured upper level wind speeds of 203 knots (234 mph) at a pressure level of 243 mb (around 34,000 ft)! This makes the 12th such observation of 200+ knot winds from our site, dating back to 1952.

 

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Nice that we just had our snow event and it’s a lot better than brown ground, but ending on 4” snow in my case for Jan would still be lousy. In Feb hopefully we have more chances but if we revert to the normal Nina warm Feb, good chance we end the winter under 15” in NYC which given the average of 25-30” I would still rate an F. 

Does nyc even make it to 10 this winter? 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Does nyc even make it to 10 this winter? 

They will but central park will be close

[Allsnow]

 

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Does nyc even make it to 10 this winter? 

today is only January 22 - it has snowed in NYC into April over 2 1/2 months left 

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

They will but central park will be close

They have to do an investigation on why CP always records lower snowfall totals then other areas in the city for the most part 

[Allsnow]

 

[jm1220]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

today is only January 22 - it has snowed in NYC into April over 2 1/2 months left 

Pretty sure there will be more chances, but the window obviously slams shut when we go back to a cutters pattern and dominant SE ridge. Given the lack of  chances for the next 10 days in climo snowiest part of the winter, the likelihood is high we end up well below average for snow again despite the colder conditions. Unless of course we get a miracle turnaround in Feb. But we need something to slow the pattern down and allow for amplification while holding in enough cold air, and we haven’t seen any hint of that this winter whatsoever. 

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Pretty sure there will be more chances, but the window obviously slams shut when we go back to a cutters pattern and dominant SE ridge. Given the lack of  chances for the next 10 days in climo snowiest part of the winter, the likelihood is high we end up well below average for snow again despite the colder conditions. Unless of course we get a miracle turnaround in Feb. But we need something to slow the pattern down and allow for amplification while holding in enough cold air, and we haven’t seen any hint of that this winter whatsoever. 

with the MJO going neutral and into 8 -1-2 in February cutter pattern is less likely

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Pretty sure there will be more chances, but the window obviously slams shut when we go back to a cutters pattern and dominant SE ridge. Given the lack of  chances for the next 10 days in climo snowiest part of the winter, the likelihood is high we end up well below average for snow again despite the colder conditions. Unless of course we get a miracle turnaround in Feb. But we need something to slow the pattern down and allow for amplification while holding in enough cold air, and we haven’t seen any hint of that this winter whatsoever. 

I wouldn't mind cutters as we still desperately need rain and these small snow events aren't bringing much moisture

[MANDA]

Check out the snow swath on morning visible loop from SE Texas into SE Virginia. 

Also from the Ohio Valley into New England.

Just a little strip in between that was totally skunked.

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_US/loop30v.html

[snowman19]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Does nyc even make it to 10 this winter? 

If NYC doesn’t make it to 10 inches during the official winter season; between now and March 20th (1st day of astronomical spring) that would be pretty insane. Nothing looks likely the rest of this month, through 1/31. But to go the rest of the way, through all of February and up to March 20th with less than 10 inches, that would be nuts…..

[MANDA]

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If NYC doesn’t make it to 10 inches during the official winter season; between now and March 20th (1st day of astronomical spring) that would be pretty insane. Nothing looks likely the rest of this month, through 1/31. But to go the rest of the way, through all of February and up to March 20th with less than 10 inches, that would be nuts…..

Only because they're sitting at 5.8 on the season. If they were at 8 or 9 like most other nearby locales I'd say 10 is a lock

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If NYC doesn’t make it to 10 inches during the official winter season; between now and March 20th (1st day of astronomical spring) that would be pretty insane. Nothing looks likely the rest of this month, through 1/31. But to go the rest of the way, through all of February and up to March 20th with less than 10 inches, that would be nuts…..

Don’t forget how sustainable the cold has been since December 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If NYC doesn’t make it to 10 inches during the official winter season; between now and March 20th (1st day of astronomical spring) that would be pretty insane. Nothing looks likely the rest of this month, through 1/31. But to go the rest of the way, through all of February and up to March 20th with less than 10 inches, that would be nuts…..

Agreed, if this were another above average temperature winter and most of the states south of us were not getting slammed with snow, then yeah it would be more acceptable. 

It's funny this winter in the last two we are finding every way possible to not snow regardless if we have blocking, frigid temperatures, etc...

Wouldn't be shocked if we get absolutely slammed next year and break some records LOL.

[Shenanagins1091]

21 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

It actually snowed 9.5" here and not the 6.5" they claim in OBA and Gulf Shores too just to blow your mind a little more

[NorthShoreWx]

13 hours ago, jm1220 said:

When it clears out overnight here temps will drop like a rock. 

If only it had.  Between clouds and a breeze it only got down to 13.5⁰ here.

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Does nyc even make it to 10 this winter? 

Hopefully, NYC can get over 10” this season. The La Niña seasonal average for NYC with under 10” by 01-31 has been 14.3” since 1970. The only La Niña year that they couldn’t do it was 2012. 
 

NYC La Niña snowfall by 01-31 under 10” and seasonal total

2025….5.8”……….?

2012….7.2”………7.4”

2008…2.9”….….11.9”

2000…9.5”……..16.3”

1999….6.5”…….12.7”

1986….3.1”…….13.0”

1976….7.9”….…17.3”

1975….2.2”……13.1”

1972….2.8”…..22.9”

AVG…………….14.3”

 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Shenanagins1091 said:

It actually snowed 9.5" here and not the 6.5" they claim in OBA and Gulf Shores too just to blow your mind a little more

Crazy! Enjoy 

[anthonymm]

41 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Nice that we just had our snow event and it’s a lot better than brown ground, but ending on 4” snow in my case for Jan would still be lousy. In Feb hopefully we have more chances but if we revert to the normal Nina warm Feb, good chance we end the winter under 15” in NYC which given the average of 25-30” I would still rate an F. 

We’re stuck in a very low snowfall pattern. No signs of appreciable amounts of snow later on. I doubt central park reaches 15” this winter. I would not be surprised if they dont even reach 10”. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

We’re stuck in a very low snowfall pattern. No signs of appreciable amounts of snow later on. I doubt central park reaches 15” this winter. I would not be surprised if they dont even reach 10”. 

We don't know what's going go happen the rest of the winter. Hopefully we get more storms.