January 2025

[IrishRob17]

34 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Those Legoland temps always seem suspiciously high. Hard to believe it's 6 above there and -10 in two other locations surrounding it, Chester and the Goshen station. What would make them 16 degrees higher? 
 

-3 here. 

Perhaps but it’s up on the hill there, that definitely has an influence. With strong CAA I haven’t noticed it being too warm.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Dan76 said:

I wonder what that would be here ? WWA ?

Would still be a blizzard as a blizzard warning has to do with wind and a period of 3 hours of heavy snow I believe.

[Volcanic Winter]

19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Is 12 degrees not cold? 
 

this January is a lock to finish below avg 

He’s just talking in terms of statistics and verification. I’ve hit 8F or colder at least once each of the past few winters (and I think twice more already this winter), so in terms of comparison this isn’t anything “special” here. Of course it’s “cold out” and below average this January, I’m running 28.9F on the month which is pretty wild!

I do agree it’s important to keep perspective on this stuff, though. But I can understand how people would take @bluewave to be downplaying; he’s just keeping it statistically ‘real’ - an important counter to media hyperbole, always.

And we really have had several crazy warm winters back to back, which makes this seem even colder by direct comparison. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

-4 forecast low was 2. 

[the_other_guy]

9F this morning in Westchester

[IrishRob17]

35 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

But it was too warm in parts of the area that still had the same airmass, and fairly accurate further north closer to the lakes. 

It was too warm for here by 10-12 degrees, down to -9 now. 

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s a very good question. All we know is that NYC frequently got to the middle 19” to 29” snowfall range with or without KU snowstorms in the 1970s and 1980s. So in the much colder climate a KU wasn’t a prerequisite to get near to over 20” like it has become since the 1990s.

87-88….19.1”….No KU

86-87…..23.1”…KU

84-85….24.1”…No KU

83-84….25.4”…No KU

82-83….27.2”….KU

81-82….24.6”…KU

78-79….29.4”….KU

76-77….24.5”….No KU

73-74…..23.5”…No KU

71-72…..22.9…..No KU

 

For reference here are the 70s 80s and 90s for this audience and the snow totals for Central Park on the right.

[EastonSN+]

14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Any idea if there is a cyclical pattern to benchmark KU storms Chris? I ask because we saw very few of them during the 70s, 80s and early 90s period too.  I can count the number on two hands, actually.  January 1978, February 1978, February 1979, January 1982, April 1982, February 1983, January 1987.  Most of these were clustered around the late 70s and early 80s, outside of that period there was only the January 1987 benchmark KU.

 

And then we saw a huge uptick beginning in the mid 90s and that period lasted through 2018, like you said.

 

What could be behind this cyclic pattern of benchmark KUs?  The AMO?

*note the 70s-80s period also had notable historic Deep South snowstorms, as we've seen again beginning with the early 2020s.

Here are the total of foot plus storms for Central Park....odd does not always match a KU for Central Park like 87.

[ForestHillWx]

Looks like a 5-10 degree spread here from the top of the hill in Chester at 3 to -6 down in Gladstone. 

Tonight should be colder. 

[EastonSN+]

5 degrees in Easton CT.

One thing for sure is this is great snowmaking weather for the ski resorts.

[Allsnow]

19 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

He’s just talking in terms of statistics and verification. I’ve hit 8F or colder at least once each of the past few winters (and I think twice more already this winter), so in terms of comparison this isn’t anything “special” here. Of course it’s “cold out” and below average this January, I’m running 28.9F on the month which is pretty wild!

I do agree it’s important to keep perspective on this stuff, though. But I can understand how people would take @bluewave to be downplaying; he’s just keeping it statistically ‘real’ - an important counter to media hyperbole, always.

And we really have had several crazy warm winters back to back, which makes this seem even colder by direct comparison. 

The core of the cold went sw of us 

 

is it not impressive to see a winter storm along the gulf coast today?

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Is 12 degrees not cold? 
 

this January is a lock to finish below avg 

To me any low below 32° in the winter is cold since you need a jacket and sweatshirt. But I was referencing the earlier Euro forecasts which were too cold by nearly 10°. Like the EPS forecast you mentioned of the high not getting above 32° in NYC from the 6th to 16th. Lows in the 10-12° range in January for NYC aren’t considered that anomalous compared to what we used to get in the past. What is unusual is the snowfall so far this month in NYC. We are on track for the lowest January snowfall for a NYC monthly average temperature of around 30.0° and colder. I know people keep saying cold and dry like the 70s and 80s. But NYC usually got much better snows even back then when January would have average monthly temperatures near this temperature range.

2025…31.8°…..3.0”….so far

2022…30.3°….15.3”

2018….31.7°….11.2”

2015…29.9°….16.9”

2014…28.6°….19.7”

2011….29.7°….36.0”

2009..29.7°….9.0”

1996..30.5°…26.1”

1994…25.5°..12.0”

1988….29.5°…13.9”

1985….28.8°….8.4”

1984…29.9°….11.7”

1982…26.1°…..11.8”

1981…26.2°….8.0”

1978…28.0°….20.3”

1977….22.0°….13.0”

1976….27.3°….5.6”

1971…..26.9°….11.4”

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Here are the total of foot plus storms for Central Park....odd does not always match a KU for Central Park like 87.

There's a blizzard warning from near Houston to near New Orleans, up to 8 inches of snow!

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

To me any low below 32° in the winter is cold since you need a jacket and sweatshirt. But I was referencing the earlier Euro forecasts which were too warm by nearly 10°. Like the EPS forecast you mentioned of the high not getting above 32° in NYC from the 6th to 16th. Lows in the 10-12° range in January for NYC aren’t considered that anomalous compared to what we used to get in the past. What is unusual is the snowfall so far this month in NYC. We are on track for the lowest January snowfall for a NYC monthly average temperature of around 30.0° and colder. I know people keep saying cold and dry like the 70s and 80s. But NYC usually got much better snows even back then when January would have average monthly temperatures in this range.

2025…31.8°…..3.0”….so far

2022…30.3°….15.3”

2018….31.7°….11.2”

2015…29.9°….16.9”

2014…28.6°….19.7”

2011….29.7°….36.0”

2009..29.7°….9.0”

1996..30.5°…26.1”

1994…25.5°..12.0”

1988….29.5°…13.9”

1985….28.8°….8.4”

1984…29.9°….11.7”

1982…26.1°…..11.8”

1981…26.2°….8.0”

1978…28.0°….20.3”

1977….22.0°….13.0”

1976….27.3°….5.6”

1971…..26.9°….11.4”

Is this comparable to December 1989 Chris? From my recollection, December 1989 was even colder than this and had even less snow.

December 1989 had a big Deep South coastal snowstorm too.  Charleston SC 8 inches of snow!

[Allsnow]

Gefs surpressing the se ridge to start feb

[Allsnow]

Blizzard warning now 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

This morning, Newark had a low temperature of 7°. That was its first single-digit low temperature since February 4, 2023 when the mercury dipped to 5°.

[MJO812]

I thought we had a chance to hit lower single digits to maybe below 0 . 

10 here

[Allsnow]

 

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

First blizzard warning ever in Louisiana.

and right on the Gulf Coast to boot!

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

awesome, they have become one of the few locations to experience both a hurricane and a blizzard!

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I thought we had a chance to hit lower single digits to maybe below 0 . 

10 here

what, this airmass isn't cold enough for that.  You usually need a high near 10 to get below 0 at night here.

[jm1220]

Looks like it got down to 3 IMBY. 

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Here are the total of foot plus storms for Central Park....odd does not always match a KU for Central Park like 87.

I know why, they are only including 12.0 inches plus for KU events.

 

I'd argue that it should be lowered to 8.0..... storms like April 1982 and March 1993 were most definitely KU events!

 

 

Your list prompted another question, among the big east coast cities (DCA, BWI, PHL, NYC, PVD, BOS), which has the most 20"+ snowstorms? I'm including PD2 because 19.8 can be rounded up to 20 and it was 25.5 at JFK anyway.... so that means NYC has had 8 20" snowstorms.  (JFK has 6 but their records only go back to 1960.)  I know at one point Baltimore had the most, is this still the case?

[uofmiami]

4 in Muttontown & 5 in Syosset for the low this morning. 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

4 in Muttontown & 5 in Syosset for the low this morning. 

I wonder how far below zero KFOK, KMJX, KMVY got?

[EastonSN+]

Still looking like we could be in the colder phases of the mjo by mid-February. Of course as we've seen below average temperatures does not guarantee snowfall.

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Still looking like we could be in the colder phases of the mjo by mid-February. Of course as we've seen below average temperatures does not guarantee snowfall.

All the ensembles reload the cold to start February 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Still looking like we could be in the colder phases of the mjo by mid-February. Of course as we've seen below average temperatures does not guarantee snowfall.

In Feb we tend to see the jet stream start to come back north and more surges of moisture into the colder air. Hopefully we can time one or two correctly. 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Still looking like we could be in the colder phases of the mjo by mid-February. Of course as we've seen below average temperatures does not guarantee snowfall.

The sensible weather here since October hasn’t been matching up with the MJO expectations for the past similar phases and corresponding 500mb patterns.