jm1220 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 23 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: That storm track is absolutely wild. You can see how it contours the cold air dome across the US, riding the boundary and ... giving a nice secondary jackpot to the Outer Banks . This really does seem reminiscent of the 2013-2015 winters to me, but of course with less snow. I really do feel there's reason yet to be optimistic about the rest of winter, while February is likely to average warmer than Jan, there's no guarantee it will be snowless. We may have better luck once the cold isn't so overbearing, since this year it oriented in a way that was harmful to snow here with that death vortex east of New England. Chin up though, IMO. We have snow on the ground and a nice winter feel at least for the cold this week. It could certainly be worse! The Palmetto Pulverizer storm? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago You guys comparing a run of the mill snow event here and a once in a lifetime event down south to find another reason to play the pessimism game is unreal. I mean this with all sincerity, seek help. 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Gonna be a cold one. Down to 17 already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Gonna be a cold one. Down to 17 already. amazing what a blanket of snow will do to night time temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago On 12/27/2024 at 10:07 AM, donsutherland1 said: The teleconnections are forecast to move into a combination that has often been associated with moderate or significant snowstorms in New York City. Based on the 12/27 0z EPS and latest 46-day ECMWF forecast, the teleconnections could be in a favorable state through January 20th. Moderate or significant snowfalls are still infrequent events. Assuming that the favorable combination occurs and persists through January 20th, one will need to look for additional factors: - Sufficient cold: Likely through most of the period - Short waves that could become storms: Multiple candidates on the guidance through 15 days - Synoptic details: TBD (can't be reliably forecast beyond 5-7 days) With the ENSO being in a neutral-cool phase, the active subtropical jet stream that is conducive to the development of Miller A storms is less prominent. At present, the potential for at least moderate (4" or above) snowfalls will become more favorable than it has been during all of the winter so far. However, the potential still needs to be realized. Based on the statistics (1950-2024), here's what seems plausible right now for the January 1-20 period: - Measurable snowfalls: 2-4 days - 1" or more snowfall: 1-3 days - 2" or more snowfall: 1-2 days - 4" or more snowfall: 1 day Moderate snowfalls: 1 to perhaps 2 Significant snowfalls: Maybe 1 How the Pattern Verified: What I thought was plausible: - Measurable snowfalls: 2-4 days - 1" or more snowfall: 1-3 days - 2" or more snowfall: 1-2 days - 4" or more snowfall: 1 day Moderate snowfalls: 1 to perhaps 2 Significant snowfalls: Maybe 1 Outcome at Central Park: - Total snowfalls: 4 days - Measurable snowfalls: 3 days (January 6: 0.9"; January 11: 0.5"; January 19: 1.6"; Total: 3.0") - 1" or more: 1 day - 2" or more: None - 4" or more: None Outcome at JFK Airport: - Total snowfalls: 4 days - Measurable snowfalls: 3 days (January 6: 0.5"; January 11: 0.4"; January 19: 2.2"; Total: 3.1") - 1" or more: 1 day - 2" or more: 1 day - 4" or more: None Outcome at LaGuardia Airport: - Total snowfalls: 4 days - Measurable snowfalls: 3 days (January 6: 0.9"; January 11: 0.5"; January 19: 3.6"; Total: 5.0") - 1" or more: 1 day - 2" or more: 1 day - 4" or more: None Synoptic details can't be reliably forecast more than 5-7 days out. Those details are crucial and they made the difference in the outcome. Overall, the pattern produced in the larger Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions, just not in the New York City area (no moderate or significant snowfalls). Boston picked up 5.0" during January 19-20, 2025. Baltimore saw 6.6" on January 6, 2025 and Washington, DC received 7.2" on January 6, 2025. Richmond picked up 3.5" during January 5-6, 2025. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: A chance of a storm next week? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Looks like flurries 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Wonder if the city can drop into the single digits during this outbreak. It looks close but forecasted lows seem to be a bit higher than they were a few days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Wonder if the city can drop into the single digits during this outbreak. It looks close but forecasted lows seem to be a bit higher than they were a few days ago solidly polar airmass, alright wind direction, decent snowpack, but kind of weak winds. i think all suburbs make it to single digits and i'm gonna say 2/3 of city stations do too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago I’m already at 7 degrees and my forecast low is for 6. I’m sure I will be at zero when I get up in the morning. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Already down to 3 here.. prob will be below 0 by midnight.. deep deep winter up here 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pequest Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Not even 10pm yet and already a minus 2 reading in Sandyston, NJ (Sussex County). 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 10F already here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Was at 10 a few hours ago, shot up to 14 I think tomorrow night will get below 0 for the 2nd time this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 54 minutes ago, Pequest said: Not even 10pm yet and already a minus 2 reading in Sandyston, NJ (Sussex County). Not sure I've ever noticed the pine barrens show up on a temperature map. Pretty neat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Active pattern next week on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 43 minutes ago, Nibor said: Not sure I've ever noticed the pine barrens show up on a temperature map. Pretty neat. Yeah, I live on the extreme northern edge. I never came to learn if the microclimate gets factored into modeling and forecasted lows here or not. I just notice sometimes we soundly beat projected lows, and sometimes are more in line with NNJ overnight temps. Can’t models predict radiative cooling? Some nights I expect it, it doesn’t happen. Other nights we’re off to the races. Already below what I was forecasted to be at for a low tonight since they adjusted the forecast up a bit from the extremes it was at several days ago. Snowcover helps too of course. It’s frigid out right now. 8F dew at 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 7 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Yeah, I live on the extreme northern edge. I never came to learn if the microclimate gets factored into modeling and forecasted lows here or not. I just notice sometimes we soundly beat projected lows, and sometimes are more in line with NNJ overnight temps. Can’t models predict radiative cooling? Some nights I expect it, it doesn’t happen. Other nights we’re off to the races. Already below what I was forecasted to be at for a low tonight since they adjusted the forecast up a bit from the extremes it was at several days ago. Snowcover helps too of course. It’s frigid out right now. 8F dew at 2. It's obvious that the pine barrens would have their own microclimate to an extent just never thought too much about it. Neat stuff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 35 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Active pattern next week on the gfs Meanwhile 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Currently 0. Forecast low was 2 so now it's just a matter of how far off it ends up. A fresh 8 inch snow cover doing its thing. I may break December 23 -3 tonight, tomorrow night too from the look of things. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 8 now. Dew is 5 so maybe we dip around there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 2 local sites have 7/-7. The valley locations are even colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 7 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: That storm track is absolutely wild. You can see how it contours the cold air dome across the US, riding the boundary and ... giving a nice secondary jackpot to the Outer Banks . This really does seem reminiscent of the 2013-2015 winters to me, but of course with less snow. I really do feel there's reason yet to be optimistic about the rest of winter, while February is likely to average warmer than Jan, there's no guarantee it will be snowless. We may have better luck once the cold isn't so overbearing, since this year it oriented in a way that was harmful to snow here with that death vortex east of New England. Chin up though, IMO. We have snow on the ground and a nice winter feel at least for the cold this week. It could certainly be worse! Yes it looks gorgeous outside and it will for the entire week. As long as it doesn't rain I'm happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said: Yeah, I live on the extreme northern edge. I never came to learn if the microclimate gets factored into modeling and forecasted lows here or not. I just notice sometimes we soundly beat projected lows, and sometimes are more in line with NNJ overnight temps. Can’t models predict radiative cooling? Some nights I expect it, it doesn’t happen. Other nights we’re off to the races. Already below what I was forecasted to be at for a low tonight since they adjusted the forecast up a bit from the extremes it was at several days ago. Snowcover helps too of course. It’s frigid out right now. 8F dew at 2. Don't you have a Jersey Devil creature living in the Pine Barrens? It would be interesting to go on a monster hunt one of these days ;-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: How the Pattern Verified: What I thought was plausible: - Measurable snowfalls: 2-4 days - 1" or more snowfall: 1-3 days - 2" or more snowfall: 1-2 days - 4" or more snowfall: 1 day Moderate snowfalls: 1 to perhaps 2 Significant snowfalls: Maybe 1 Outcome at Central Park: - Total snowfalls: 4 days - Measurable snowfalls: 3 days (January 6: 0.9"; January 11: 0.5"; January 19: 1.6"; Total: 3.0") - 1" or more: 1 day - 2" or more: None - 4" or more: None Outcome at JFK Airport: - Total snowfalls: 4 days - Measurable snowfalls: 3 days (January 6: 0.5"; January 11: 0.4"; January 19: 2.2"; Total: 3.1") - 1" or more: 1 day - 2" or more: 1 day - 4" or more: None Outcome at LaGuardia Airport: - Total snowfalls: 4 days - Measurable snowfalls: 3 days (January 6: 0.9"; January 11: 0.5"; January 19: 3.6"; Total: 5.0") - 1" or more: 1 day - 2" or more: 1 day - 4" or more: None Synoptic details can't be reliably forecast more than 5-7 days out. Those details are crucial and they made the difference in the outcome. Overall, the pattern produced in the larger Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions, just not in the New York City area (no moderate or significant snowfalls). Boston picked up 5.0" during January 19-20, 2025. Baltimore saw 6.6" on January 6, 2025 and Washington, DC received 7.2" on January 6, 2025. Richmond picked up 3.5" during January 5-6, 2025. Don did the pattern produce in Philly? I ask because it seems like there was a donut hole from NYC to Philly because we were sandwiched between two tracks-- neither of which benefit us-- and this is something that seems to happen quite often with a fast Pacific flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 7 hours ago, jm1220 said: The Palmetto Pulverizer storm? Yet another comparison to December 1989, when Charleston, SC had a historic snowstorm that dumped 8 inches of snow there. December 1989 was much colder of course.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said: Yeah, I live on the extreme northern edge. I never came to learn if the microclimate gets factored into modeling and forecasted lows here or not. I just notice sometimes we soundly beat projected lows, and sometimes are more in line with NNJ overnight temps. Can’t models predict radiative cooling? Some nights I expect it, it doesn’t happen. Other nights we’re off to the races. Already below what I was forecasted to be at for a low tonight since they adjusted the forecast up a bit from the extremes it was at several days ago. Snowcover helps too of course. It’s frigid out right now. 8F dew at 2. There's always a nice competition between KMJX, KFOK and KMVY to see which Pine Barrens get the coldest temp, I think KFOK wins most of the time, but sometimes one of the other two is colder and they can each be colder than even our coldest inland locations, like Monticello or Mt Pocono. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 12 here 1 at FOX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 hours ago, Rjay said: Meanwhile Next week, the pattern is completely unsupportive of any major snowstorms IMO. I don’t care what GFS fantasies may show up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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