January 2025

[EWR757]

Starting off the morning with my 2 rain gauges and snowboard ready for later today.

34 F with a broken layer of altocumulus.  At ground level there is plenty of black ice.

The 0.06" of rain yesterday melted the remaining snow on the ground.

Hoping it works out for those of you along the coast that want snow.  Compared to the 06Z GFS MOS, LGA and EWR are already above forecast temperatures and dewpoints.

[bluewave]

The was actually the strongest 50/50 low at 500mb on record going back to 1950 just to the east of New England in early to mid-January. It finally relaxed enough and we are getting the storm today into tonight. Closer to a gradient pattern which we really haven’t seen in a while. 
 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

The week ahead:

Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC will likely see their coldest 7-day period since January 3-9, 2018.

[Allsnow]

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the most anomalous cold and snow relative to the means are south of us this month.

 

Historic stuff happening down south this week! Winter storm watches for the gulf coast 

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

Crazy once in two lifetimes type of weather down south 

 

 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Historic stuff happening down south this week! Winter storm watches for the gulf coast 

 

 

 

Maybe the models backing off a little bit on the Arctic press close to the coast will leave us some room this week for a GFS CMC blend for some follow up snows Tuesday through Friday.
 

 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Maybe the models backing off a little bit on the Arctic press close to the coast will leave us some room this week for a GFS CMC blend for some follow up snows Tuesday through Friday.
 

 

I think the northern stream sw will fire up some light snow Tuesday night 

[SACRUS]

 

34 / 32 awaiting the snowfall (largest in 3 years).   Cold Mon - Fri, coldest of the season single digits, snow cover aiding in some near / sub zeros inland N+W.    Some light snow potential Tue later and Friday.  A brief warmup over the weekend before next push of stronger cold by the 27th.  Overall cold to very colder than normal.  Warmup post Ground hog day,

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 64 (1951)
NYC: 64 (1951)
LGA: 64 (1951)
JFK: 58 (1972)


Lows:

EWR: -2 (1994)
NYC: -2 (1994)
LGA: -2 (1994)
JFK: 0 (1994)

Historical: 

 

1810 - The famous "cold day" in New England. Gale force winds wrecked homes, and accompanied a sudden overnight drop in temperature of 50 degrees. Tradgedy struck Sanbornton NH where three chidren froze to death. (David Ludlum)

1933 - Giant Forest CA received 60 inches of snow in just 24 hours, a state record, and the second highest 24 hour total of record for the U.S. (David Ludlum)

 

1961: Eight inches of snow fell and caused crippling traffic jams around the Washington D.C. area on the eve of John Kennedy's inauguration. The president-elect had to cancel dinner plans and, in a struggle to keep other commitments, reportedly had only 4 hours of sleep. Former President Herbert Hoover was unable to fly into Washington National Airport due to the weather, and he had to miss the swearing-in ceremony. 

1977 - Snowflakes were observed at Homestead and Miami Beach in extreme southern Florida. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A storm tracking toward the northeastern U.S. produced up to 14 inches of snow in northern Indiana. Peru IN reported a foot of snow. Six cities in Florida reported new record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 88 degrees at Miami equalled their record for the month of January. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A powerful storm hit the central U.S. producing blizzard conditions in the Central High Plains, and severe thunderstorms in the Lower Mississippi Valley. Snowfall totals ranged up to 36 inches at Wolf Creek Pass CO, with 31 inches at Elsmere NE. Tornadoes claimed five lives in Tennessee, and a tornado at Cullman AL injured 35 persons. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - The high temperature for the day at Fairbanks, AK, was a frigid 41 degrees below zero, and the morning low of 24 degrees below zero at Anchorage AK was their coldest reading in fourteen years. (National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in eastern Texas and Louisiana. Tornadoes at Garland TX and Apple Springs TX each injured one person. Heavy snow spread from the Southern and Central Rockies into the Great Plains. Storm totals in New Mexico reached 36 inches at Gascon. Totals in the Central Plains ranged up to 15 inches near McCook NE and Garden City KS. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1993: An unusual series of Pacific storm systems tracked across Arizona from January 6th through the 19th, producing heavy and prolonged precipitation across the state. These heavy rains caused the most widespread and severe flooding in Arizona since the turn of the century. The protracted rainfall over the 2 weeks caused multiple flood peaks on most streams and rivers. A large garbage landfill and portions of the new Mill Avenue Bridge under construction were washed away by the raging Salt River. The Gillespie Dam west of Phoenix was damaged as high water spread throughout low-lying areas. One man drowned while trying to cross the Agua Fria River. 

 

1996: January 1996 is known as one of the worst snowmelt floods on record for the Mid-Atlantic. The region saw blizzard conditions on January 6 and 7th, which produced 15 to 24 inches east of I-95, and 2 to 3 feet of snow west of I-95. With a tremendous amount of snow on the ground, on January 19, temperatures soared into the 50s and 60s ahead of an approaching cold front. At 7 am in Washington, D.C., was reporting a temperature of 60 degrees with a dewpoint of 60 degrees, both unusually high for a January morning. The warm temperatures combined with rain to melt much of the snowpack, released into the waterways.

[bluewave]

Good to see the STJ finally become more dominant this winter in the split flow pattern.

[weathermedic]

22 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

34 / 32 awaiting the snowfall (largest in 3 years).   Cold Mon - Fri, coldest of the season single digits, snow cover aiding in some near / sub zeros inland N+W.    Some light snow potential Tue later and Friday.  A brief warmup over the weekend before next push of stronger cold by the 27th.  Overall cold to very colder than normal.  Warmup post Ground hog day,

 

Look at the low from yesterday really wrapping up out in the Atlantic on the last few frames

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The was actually the strongest 50/50 low at 500mb on record going back to 1950 just to the east of New England in early to mid-January. It finally relaxed enough and we are getting the storm today into tonight. Closer to a gradient pattern which we really haven’t seen in a while. 
 

 

 

It shows that a 50/50 low can be a bad thing if it's too strong.  The winds were really bad for many days.

[SACRUS]

 

NYC

 

Jan 19, 1961:  Kennedy snowstorm - 9.2 inches of snow with over a foot in nearby areas of northern NJ.  That would be the start of an unprecedented 2 weeks of cold and sub 32 in the Nyc/NJ metro areas.

 

Jan 19 -20 , 1978: 13.5 inches of snowfall.  

 

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Maybe the models backing off a little bit on the Arctic press close to the coast will leave us some room this week for a GFS CMC blend for some follow up snows Tuesday through Friday.
 

 

Will need to see models start trending favorably soon. Most of them have precip offshore 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 64 (1951)
NYC: 64 (1951)
LGA: 64 (1951)
JFK: 58 (1972)


Lows:

EWR: -2 (1994)
NYC: -2 (1994)
LGA: -2 (1994)
JFK: 0 (1994)

Historical: 

 

1810 - The famous "cold day" in New England. Gale force winds wrecked homes, and accompanied a sudden overnight drop in temperature of 50 degrees. Tradgedy struck Sanbornton NH where three chidren froze to death. (David Ludlum)

1933 - Giant Forest CA received 60 inches of snow in just 24 hours, a state record, and the second highest 24 hour total of record for the U.S. (David Ludlum)

 

1961: Eight inches of snow fell and caused crippling traffic jams around the Washington D.C. area on the eve of John Kennedy's inauguration. The president-elect had to cancel dinner plans and, in a struggle to keep other commitments, reportedly had only 4 hours of sleep. Former President Herbert Hoover was unable to fly into Washington National Airport due to the weather, and he had to miss the swearing-in ceremony. 

1977 - Snowflakes were observed at Homestead and Miami Beach in extreme southern Florida. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A storm tracking toward the northeastern U.S. produced up to 14 inches of snow in northern Indiana. Peru IN reported a foot of snow. Six cities in Florida reported new record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 88 degrees at Miami equalled their record for the month of January. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A powerful storm hit the central U.S. producing blizzard conditions in the Central High Plains, and severe thunderstorms in the Lower Mississippi Valley. Snowfall totals ranged up to 36 inches at Wolf Creek Pass CO, with 31 inches at Elsmere NE. Tornadoes claimed five lives in Tennessee, and a tornado at Cullman AL injured 35 persons. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - The high temperature for the day at Fairbanks, AK, was a frigid 41 degrees below zero, and the morning low of 24 degrees below zero at Anchorage AK was their coldest reading in fourteen years. (National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in eastern Texas and Louisiana. Tornadoes at Garland TX and Apple Springs TX each injured one person. Heavy snow spread from the Southern and Central Rockies into the Great Plains. Storm totals in New Mexico reached 36 inches at Gascon. Totals in the Central Plains ranged up to 15 inches near McCook NE and Garden City KS. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1993: An unusual series of Pacific storm systems tracked across Arizona from January 6th through the 19th, producing heavy and prolonged precipitation across the state. These heavy rains caused the most widespread and severe flooding in Arizona since the turn of the century. The protracted rainfall over the 2 weeks caused multiple flood peaks on most streams and rivers. A large garbage landfill and portions of the new Mill Avenue Bridge under construction were washed away by the raging Salt River. The Gillespie Dam west of Phoenix was damaged as high water spread throughout low-lying areas. One man drowned while trying to cross the Agua Fria River. 

 

1996: January 1996 is known as one of the worst snowmelt floods on record for the Mid-Atlantic. The region saw blizzard conditions on January 6 and 7th, which produced 15 to 24 inches east of I-95, and 2 to 3 feet of snow west of I-95. With a tremendous amount of snow on the ground, on January 19, temperatures soared into the 50s and 60s ahead of an approaching cold front. At 7 am in Washington, D.C., was reporting a temperature of 60 degrees with a dewpoint of 60 degrees, both unusually high for a January morning. The warm temperatures combined with rain to melt much of the snowpack, released into the waterways.

Was this the date that supermarket roof collapsed in Massapequa back in 1996, Tony?

It was also the coldest morning back in 1994.

[SACRUS]

More on the Kennedy 1961 Jan 19-20 snow storm

https://www.weather.gov/rlx/jan61

This storm is dubbed the "Kennedy Inaugural Snowstorm" since it occurred on the eve of John F Kennedy's Presidential Inauguration in Washington D.C.

A cold front dropped south from the Great Lakes before undergoing frontolysis allowing an existing stationary front draped across the Tennessee Valley to return north as a wave of low pressure rode along it. As the initial front crossed high pressure built south from southern Ontario, which permitted cold air to infiltrate from the north.

Unlike most nor'easters, the surface low tracked farther north over the mid Ohio Valley, which resulted in the coastal low developing farther north off the Virginia coast, opposed to the Carolinas like most of the systems summarized. Nonetheless, impacts were similar with six inches of snow or greater east of a line from Clarksburg to Charleston to Williamson.

The surface low tracked from Tennessee eastward across the Southern Appalachians then off the southeastern Virginia coast. The system moved rapidly to the east part due to the lack of cold air trapped east of the Appalachians. The low rapidly intensified shortly after it reached the Atlantic ocean from 12Z the 20th to 00Z th 21st. During that time frame the minimum central pressure fell 43mbs in the time frame above.

The 850mb charts illustrated a transitory area of low pressure ejecting from the central Rockies on the 18th of January. The low closed off around 12Z on the 19th south of Louisville. The forward speed of the low slowed from here on out as it reached the Atlantic seaboard just off the Eastern shore of Maryland by 12Z the 20th. It continued its progression slowly to the northeast and continued to intensify as it progressed towards the Canadian maritimes. With the track of the low, West Virginia was positioned in a favorable spot for significant snow accumulation. 850mb Temperatures never recovered above -1C staying between -1C to -6C for the duration of the event.

A strong ridge of high pressure dominated much of the western United States with a trough over the Great Lakes and New England. A fast confluent flow encompassed the Ohio Valley with a strong westerly mid level jet. This orientation steered the surface low due east across Mid-Atlantic. In fact, the mid level jet strengthened with time reaching its peak at 00Z on the 21st.

Total snowfall accumulations where similar to the Feburary 1958 storm system save for the this system brought six inch snowfall amounts farther to the west encompassing nearly all of the West Virginia lowlands. Snow totals can be found here.

[SACRUS]

 

More on the 1978 Snowstorm 19-20

 

https://www.weather.gov/rlx/jan78

January 19-21 1978

 

This was the last in a tri-fecta of winter storms over a seven day stretch that produced a full winter weather spectrum in the northeastern United States.  Snowfall amounts averaged between 10 to 16 inches across the state of West Virginia, while from Philadelphia northeast a foot and a half or greater was common.  The highest snowfall reported was across western Maryland and the northern West Virginia mountains, where nearly 30 inches of snow occurred.  In terms of societal impacts, this was the most crippling snowstorm in the northeast since 1969, not to mention one of the highest snow producing nor'easters to affect West Virginia.

High pressure built east from the northern plains on the evening of the 18th to northern Maine by the morning of the 20th. The anticyclone hung tough retreating into the Canadian Maritimes on the evening of the 20th. Its stay was long enough to trap cold air east of the Appalachians and keep sub-freezing temperature across much of West Virginia. The surface low responsible for this winter precipitation originated in the northern Gulf of Mexico during the day of the 19th then rapidly strengthened as it moved up the eastern seaboard on the 20th.  The bulk of the snow fell between 6Z and 18Z on the 20th. While the surface low was in southern New England, wrap around upslope snow showers continued across West Virginia for a good part of the 21st before winding down as high pressure built east from the Midwest.

 

The 850mb charts illustrated a closed low off southeastern Louisiana at 12Z on the 19th.  The low then tracked northeast reaching east central Alabama by 00Z on the 20th. The low continued its movement northeast tracking east of the Appalachians, while it strengthened slightly. With the cyclone track on the lee side of the Appalachians and boundary layer cold air advection under a northerly wind component, 850mb temperatures never surpassed 0C for the event.  This thermal structure and the placement on the northeast quadrant of the 850mb low, led to a period of heavy snowfall across West Virginia.  Strong cyclonic flow as the low continued into southern New England, kept the upslope snow in place through the 21st.   The cyclone did not undergo explosive cyclogenesis as the greatest change in geopotential heights was a decease of 60 meters in 12 hours.  Much like previous nor'easters that affected West Virginia, there was no closed 500mb low present with this storm either.  Initially a trough of low pressure crossed New England, while a second trough associated with the surface low ejected out of the Gulf Coast region and up the eastern seaboard.    

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Was this the date that supermarket roof collapsed in Massapequa back in 1996, Tony?

 

Looks like thet was Jan 12, 1996

[JustinRP37]

Getting excited for a period of extended snow cover! First one in my son’s six year life! I think the first year we had a brief period of snow cover but since then it has been very brutal for snow enthusiasts. Going to head out skiing tomorrow again. 

[SACRUS]

 

Daylight: 9:H:42M:33S  

Gain of 27 minutes 

Sunset nearing 1700 (Jan 21 sets at 5PM) for the first time since Nov 2nd (DST)

 

Roughly equivalent to Nov 22nd

[SACRUS]

 

Cold air on the march and advance south / south east as the gulf states await the snow and ice and frigid temps and we await the quick change to snow.

 

 

[Allsnow]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Good to see the STJ finally become more dominant this winter in the split flow pattern.

End of January into February looks like an active STJ with cold lurking to the north. I know you love that type of setup 

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

End of January into February looks like an active STJ with cold lurking to the north. I know you love that type of setup 

 

Sure does with a 1994-ish kind of look, can see this late Jan into early Feb evolving pre any more sustained warmup

 

[SACRUS]

 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

End of January into February looks like an active STJ with cold lurking to the north. I know you love that type of setup 

We definitely want to hold onto more of the blocking into Northern Greenland like the EPS  had yesterday. 

New run

Old run was better

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We definitely want to hold onto more of the blocking into Northern Greenland like the EPS  had yesterday. 

New run

Old run was better

 

the last week of January is when these forecasts gain some accuracy.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Sure does with a 1994-ish kind of look, can see this late Jan into early Feb evolving pre any more sustained warmup

 

1994 had the real warm up a few days after the second snowstorm in February and then we went back to cold and snowy in March.

 

 

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the last week of January is when these forecasts gain some accuracy.

February is the one month with La Ninas when it becomes a challenge to subdue the tendency for more of a Southeast Ridge. Even during the much colder era in the 70s and 80s this was the case. So we need to do the best we can the rest of this month before that starts becoming a factor.

[EastonSN+]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We definitely want to hold onto more of the blocking into Northern Greenland like the EPS  had yesterday. 

New run

Old run was better

 

We lost the EPO in these depictions and are solely reliant on the trough south of Greenland. 

 

[EastonSN+]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1994 had the real warm up a few days after the second snowstorm in February and then we went back to cold and snowy in March.

 

 

Finding the mjo interesting. Phase 3 is apparently colder than average in February. Looks like there is a standing wave developing in phase 8 and 1 per below. Wonder if we avoid the cold phases, that being said, we were cold in December while we traverse through the warm phases so the mjo may not be running the bus. 

Losing the EPO is a bit concerning if one likes colder weather.