January 2025

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Cooling down fast again tonight, down to 25. Wonder if we see another sneaky night in the teens in some places. 

snow cover?

we had a dusting of snow cover this morning but it's all gone now.

[LibertyBell]

With all this cold weather, I still saw a large flock of monk parakeets flying overhead and then perching near the top of a nearby tree.

We must really have a subtropical climate now....

 

 

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

snow cover?

we had a dusting of snow cover this morning but it's all gone now.

I had my usual this winter consolation dusting that was gone within an hour of sunrise this morning. 

[RU848789]

@donsutherland1- hey Don, I recall you recently posted about significantly increased chances for NYC (and I think other 95 cities) to get major snowstorms during a regime shift with the cold and high latitude blocking relaxing (and other shifts), but I couldn't find it.  Would any of that be in play for 1/24-25 (I see some signals on some ensembles)? It's obviously warming up by then and the latest forecast I saw was for the NAO to go positive around then. TIA.

[MJO812]

Euro has some snow up here for Wednesday 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro has some snow up here for Wednesday 

A couple of opportunities if the trough was sharper

[LVblizzard]

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro has some snow up here for Wednesday 

Ensembles are VERY aggressive. Some members have a full on SECS.

[brooklynwx99]

this is pretty concerning for midweek

[Allsnow]

EPS snow mean the best I have seen it in years. 7/8 for nyc 

[wdrag]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is pretty concerning for midweek

I agree.. am away but will consider a thread for this late today or tomorrow.  

[bluewave]

Model forecasts since the beginning of January have been running too cold. We are only around -0.6 across the area averaged out. The cold coming in for next week doesn’t look too extreme by late January standards. Will probably be several degrees warmer for the lows in places like NYC than the Arctic outbreak in early February 2023. 
 

New Brunswick….-0.7

EWR…-0.4

SMQ…-0.2

FWN…+1.4

NYC….-2.2

LGA….-1.8

HPN…-0.2

JFK….+0.8

BDR….-0.5

ISP…..-0.5

[EWR757]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Model forecasts since the beginning of January have been running too cold. We are only around -0.6 across the area averaged out. For NYC and the coast next week looks like the colder maxes will be more impressive than the minimums which has been the case all month with the persistent flow across the Great Lakes. 
 

New Brunswick….-0.7

EWR…-0.4

SMQ…-0.2

FWN…+1.4

NYC….-2.2

LGA….-1.8

HPN…-0.2

JFK….+0.8

BDR….-0.5

ISP…..-0.5

SMQ is a good nocturnal radiational cooling location, however those nights have been few and far between this month with the cloud cover and strong winds.   Quite the difference between LGA & JFK.  Why do you think that is?

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

New York City and Philadelphia remain in line for a moderate (3"-6") snowstorm. Areas from Islip and eastward on Long Island will likely see 1"-3" of snow. An area running north and west of New York City and Philadelphia, including northwest New Jersey, will likely see 4"-8" of snow.

Last Snowstorms at Select Thresholds:

2" or more:
New York City: February 17, 2024: 2.0"
Philadelphia: February 17, 2024: 2.6"

4" or more:
New York City: January 28-29, 2022: 8.5"
Philadelphia: January 19, 2024: 4.6"

6" or more:
New York City: January 28-29, 2022: 8.5"
Philadelphia: January 28-29, 2022: 7.5"

In general, the pattern has some similarities with that of the January 22, 1987 snowstorm, that brought 8.1" to New York City and 8.8" to Philadelphia. This time around, the ridging off the East Coast will be less impressive than it was in 1987 and the storm won't be as moisture-laden. Thus, snowfall amounts will be lower than they were in 1987. At the same time, a mostly rain scenario in New York City is unlikely.

Leading up to the storm, the EPS and ECMWF AIFS appear to have done well forecasting the overall synoptic pattern. The NAM struggled to recognize the development of the storm until recently. The RGEM, which is typically an outstanding mesoscale model, took the storm too close to the Coast producing mostly rain in and around the New York City area, but made a large move toward the rest of the guidance at 1/18 6z.

The coldest weather of Winter 2024-25 will follow the snowstorm.

 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

SMQ is a good nocturnal radiational cooling location, however those nights have been few and far between this month with the cloud cover and strong winds.   Quite the difference between LGA & JFK.  Why do you think that is?

It’s due to the lack of radiational cooling and strong winds. JFK has a much better location for radiational cooling in a marshy area near the Five Towns section of Long Island than LGA.  So the minimum departure at LGA is -1 and JFK is +1.6. 

[donsutherland1]

6 hours ago, RU848789 said:

@donsutherland1- hey Don, I recall you recently posted about significantly increased chances for NYC (and I think other 95 cities) to get major snowstorms during a regime shift with the cold and high latitude blocking relaxing (and other shifts), but I couldn't find it.  Would any of that be in play for 1/24-25 (I see some signals on some ensembles)? It's obviously warming up by then and the latest forecast I saw was for the NAO to go positive around then. TIA.

There's a window of opportunity for the 24th and perhaps 25th if the forecast waning blocking doesn't break down faster. After that, prospects for a significant snowfall in the NYC to Philadelphia area could be reduced.

[SACRUS]

 

34/ 27 some clouds and showers in SNJ.   Warmest day of the next 7.  Sunday storm mix to snow 2 - 5 good range.  Coldest of the season between Mon and Thu, with some light snowshowers or snow (along the eastern areas coast) on Wed.    Overall cold through the end of the month with colder remaining nearby and brief moderation periods before going back colder than normal.  Change to warmer east post Groundhogs day.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 66 (1990)
NYC: 66 (1990)
LGA: 64 (1990)
JFK: 59 (1990)


Lows:

EWR: -7 (1982)
NYC: 0 (1982)
LGA: 0 (1982)
JFK: 0 (1982)

Historical:

 

1857 - A great cold storm swept across the Atlantic Seaboard. Snowfall totals of 12 inches were common, whole gales caused shipwrecks and damage property on islands, and temperatures near zero prevailed from Virginia northward. Great drifts of snow blocked transportation. Richmond VA was cut off from Washington DC for a week. (David Ludlum)

 

1943: Idaho's coldest night on record occurred as the low temperature dropped to 60 degrees below zero at Island Park Dam.

 

1950: Oregon continued in the grips of one of its worst winter months ever. A significant winter storm brought a thick glaze of ice to Columbia River Gorge, stopping automobile traffic in its tracks. Hundreds of motorists were stranded and had to be rescued by train. Even that wasn't easy with the coating of ice. The storm caused widespread power outages.  

 

1971: A warm Santa Ana condition brought a 95 degree reading to Los Angeles, the highest January temperature on record. It was 95 degrees in Palm Springs, the highest temperature on record for January as well.

1973 - A baby was carried 300 to 400 yards by the strong winds of a tornado at Corey LA, yet received only minor injuries. (The Weather Channel)

 

1978: In Connecticut, the Hartford Arena collapsed after experiencing the largest snowstorm of its 5-year life. Multiple issues caused the collapse.

1987 - A storm in the south central U.S. blanketed Oklahoma City with eight inches of snow, their highest total since 1948. Snowfall totals in Oklahoma ranged up to 13 inches at Gage, with drifts five feet high. Roof collapses across the state resulted in seven million dollars damage. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A storm in the southwestern U.S. produced a 15 to 20 foot surf along the southern coast of California resulting in more than fifty million dollars damage. A small tornado in Orange County CA lifted a baseball dugout fifteen feet into the air and deposited it in the street, 150 yards away. The same storm also produced 26 inches of snow at Duck Creek UT. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - While fair and mild weather prevailed across the forty-eight states, bitter cold gripped Alaska. The high temperature for the day at Fairbanks was 30 degrees below zero. Thunderstorms along the western Gulf coast drenched parts of southwest Houston with more than four inches of rain. (National Weather Summary)

1990 - A winter storm produced heavy snow and high winds across the southwestern U.S. Snowfall totals ranged up to 18 inches at Lake Arrowhead CA and Ashford AZ. High winds in New Mexico gusted to 100 mph east of Albuquerque. Unseasonably warm weather continued from Texas to the Atlantic coast. Twenty cities reported record high temperatures for the date including Roanoke VA with a reading of 71 degrees. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[EastonSN+]

Looking into February, although this depiction shows the EPO going positive, the trough south of Greenland, which has been there all season long, remains. This puts us on the right side of the gradient. Canada would be cold in this depiction and therefore we would have a cold air source.

Verbatim a kind of dry look.

[Allsnow]

Wow. Once in a lifetime 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 66 (1990)
NYC: 66 (1990)
LGA: 64 (1990)
JFK: 59 (1990)


Lows:

EWR: -7 (1982)
NYC: 0 (1982)
LGA: 0 (1982)
JFK: 0 (1982)

Historical:

 

1857 - A great cold storm swept across the Atlantic Seaboard. Snowfall totals of 12 inches were common, whole gales caused shipwrecks and damage property on islands, and temperatures near zero prevailed from Virginia northward. Great drifts of snow blocked transportation. Richmond VA was cut off from Washington DC for a week. (David Ludlum)

 

1943: Idaho's coldest night on record occurred as the low temperature dropped to 60 degrees below zero at Island Park Dam.

 

1950: Oregon continued in the grips of one of its worst winter months ever. A significant winter storm brought a thick glaze of ice to Columbia River Gorge, stopping automobile traffic in its tracks. Hundreds of motorists were stranded and had to be rescued by train. Even that wasn't easy with the coating of ice. The storm caused widespread power outages.  

 

1971: A warm Santa Ana condition brought a 95 degree reading to Los Angeles, the highest January temperature on record. It was 95 degrees in Palm Springs, the highest temperature on record for January as well.

1973 - A baby was carried 300 to 400 yards by the strong winds of a tornado at Corey LA, yet received only minor injuries. (The Weather Channel)

 

1978: In Connecticut, the Hartford Arena collapsed after experiencing the largest snowstorm of its 5-year life. Multiple issues caused the collapse.

1987 - A storm in the south central U.S. blanketed Oklahoma City with eight inches of snow, their highest total since 1948. Snowfall totals in Oklahoma ranged up to 13 inches at Gage, with drifts five feet high. Roof collapses across the state resulted in seven million dollars damage. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A storm in the southwestern U.S. produced a 15 to 20 foot surf along the southern coast of California resulting in more than fifty million dollars damage. A small tornado in Orange County CA lifted a baseball dugout fifteen feet into the air and deposited it in the street, 150 yards away. The same storm also produced 26 inches of snow at Duck Creek UT. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - While fair and mild weather prevailed across the forty-eight states, bitter cold gripped Alaska. The high temperature for the day at Fairbanks was 30 degrees below zero. Thunderstorms along the western Gulf coast drenched parts of southwest Houston with more than four inches of rain. (National Weather Summary)

1990 - A winter storm produced heavy snow and high winds across the southwestern U.S. Snowfall totals ranged up to 18 inches at Lake Arrowhead CA and Ashford AZ. High winds in New Mexico gusted to 100 mph east of Albuquerque. Unseasonably warm weather continued from Texas to the Atlantic coast. Twenty cities reported record high temperatures for the date including Roanoke VA with a reading of 71 degrees. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

wow multiple days at or below zero in this period in 1982.

 

on the other end of the spectrum, after a historically cold December in 1989 we were now setting daily records during this period in January 1990.

and this below 0 blizzard was famous

 

1857 - A great cold storm swept across the Atlantic Seaboard. Snowfall totals of 12 inches were common, whole gales caused shipwrecks and damage property on islands, and temperatures near zero prevailed from Virginia northward. Great drifts of snow blocked transportation. Richmond VA was cut off from Washington DC for a week. (David Ludlum)

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s due to the lack of radiational cooling and strong winds. JFK has a much better location for radiational cooling in a marshy area near the Five Towns section of Long Island than LGA.  So the minimum departure at LGA is -1 and JFK is +1.6. 

so the difference is more because JFK is normally much colder than LGA vs actual temperatures being much warmer at JFK this month?

 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Looking into February, although this depiction shows the EPO going positive, the trough south of Greenland, which has been there all season long, remains. This puts us on the right side of the gradient. Canada would be cold in this depiction and therefore we would have a cold air source.

Verbatim a kind of dry look.

Overrunning/swfe potential for sure

[EastonSN+]

8 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is pretty concerning for midweek

Did the 6z EPS come further north? The lack of blocking should allow the ability and potential for it to come a little further north.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Did the 6z EPS come further north? The lack of blocking should allow the ability and potential for it to come a little further north.

If there is no blocking where is all this cold air coming from?

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

If there is no blocking where is all this cold air coming from?

Cold air will be in place from the negative EPO. As Blue Wave mentioned it's all about storm track for January and February. With cold air in place and the storm which will 90% be off the coast given where it's starting from it would 100% be all snow. Biggest issue is getting it up here. 

Remember 2013-2014 we had no blocking all winter and it was frigid with lots of snow. 

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Did the 6z EPS come further north? The lack of blocking should allow the ability and potential for it to come a little further north.

No, ticked southeast. From the start of this threat I felt the trough was to positive with not enough time to turn the corner.  I still feel that is the outcome 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Cold air will be in place from the negative EPO. As Blue Wave mentioned it's all about storm track for January and February. With cold air in place and the storm which will 90% be off the coast given where it's starting from it would 100% be all snow. Biggest issue is getting it up here. 

Remember 2013-2014 we had no blocking all winter and it was frigid with lots of snow. 

Like 1993-94

[Stormlover74]

Nice hit Thursday for the immediate coast/LI on gfs

[cleetussnow]

Interesting GFS possibly for the 24th/25….

[Stormlover74]