January 2025

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 67 (1932)
NYC: 67 (1932)
LGA: 62 (1995)
JFK: 58 (1995)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (1957)
NYC: 0 (1957)
LGA: 0 (1957)
JFK: 2 (2004)

Historical: 

 

1852 - Between January 15th and February 24th a total of 1378 railroad cars were drawn by horses across the frozen Susquehanna River to engines waiting at Havre De Grace, MD. (The Weather Channel)

 

1852: In 1852, the long, cold winter froze the Susquehanna River in Maryland to a depth of 2 to 3 feet, preventing all ferry service. Railroad officials overcame this perplexing situation by laying tracks across the ice, with trestles for either bank’s inclines. During the several weeks from January 15 to February 29, approximately 1,300 cars with a total weight of 10,000 tons were hauled across the river from Havre de Grace, Maryland, to Perryville, Maryland.

1932 - Up to two inches of snow whitened the Los Angeles basin of California. The Los Angeles Civic Center reported an inch of snow, and even the beaches of Santa Monica were whitened with snow, in what proved to be a record snowstorm for Los Angeles. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1952 - A six day snowstorm was in progress in the western U.S. The storm produced 44 inches of snow at Marlette Lake NV, 52 inches at Sun Valley ID, and 149 inches at Tahoe CA, establishing single storm records for each of those three states. In addition, 24 hour snowfall totals of 22 inches at the University of Nevada, and 26 inches at Arco ID, established records for those two states. The streamliner, 'City of San Francisco' was snowbound in the Sierra Nevada Range, near Donner Summit. (David Ludlum)

 

1967: The Green Bay Packers beat the Kansas City Chiefs, 35-10, in Super Bowl I at the Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles. From the weather station at the USC campus in downtown LA, the high temperature was 79 degrees, and the low was 51. There was a light west wind.

 

1972: In Flint, Michigan, the daytime temperature rose to only -3 degrees. This is the second coldest maximum temperature recorded in the city of Flint since 1921. Detroit's high temperature was zero.

1987 - A powerful storm over the Southern Plateau and the Southern Rockies produced 24 inches of snow at Colorado Springs CO, including 22 inches in 24 hours, a January record. High winds in the southwestern U.S. gusted to 65 mph in the Yosemite Valley of California. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A small storm over the Atlantic Ocean produced heavy snow along the coast of North Carolina. The five inch total at Wilmington NC was their third highest for any storm in January in 117 years of records. (National Weather Summary)

1989 - A storm in the northwestern U.S. produced up to 14 inches of snow in the Cascade Mountain Range. Light snow in the north central U.S. was just enough to push the snowfall total for January at Fargo ND past their previous all-time monthly record of 30.7 inches.

1990 - While one Pacific storm crossed the Central Rockies, another approached the west coast. The northern mountains of Utah were buried under 17 to 35 inches of snow while the mountains of southern Utah received another 12 to 16 inches. Eighteen cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 50s and 60s. Wichita KS reported a record high of 68 degrees. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[SACRUS]

5 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

A very dry first two weeks (0.10" at NYC). 

On pace to break record for driest Jan, top 25 are:

_01 __ 0.58 __ 1981

_02 __ 0.66 __ 1970

_03 __ 0.77 __ 1955

_04 __ 0.94 __ 1876

_05 __ 0.96 __ 1896

_06 __ 1.00 __ 1985

_07 __ 1.10 __ 1969

_08 __ 1.28 __ 1916

_09 __ 1.39 __ 1967

_10 __ 1.54 __ 1956

_11 __ 1.65 __ 1954

_12 __ 1.66 __ 1901

_13 __ 1.68 __ 1992

_14 __ 1.70 __ 1957

_15 __ 1.72 __ 1980

_16 __ 1.78 __ 1933

_17 __ 1.86 __ 1946

t18 __ 1.87 __ 1928

t18 __ 1.87 __ 1984

t20 __ 1.88 __ 1872

t20 __ 1.88 __ 1961

t22 __ 1.93 __ 1963

t22 __ 1.93 __ 2002

t22 __ 1.93 __ 2020

_25 __ 2.01 __ 1894

__________

We'll see where 2025 finishes, if among these. 

 

 

 

We will see what we can eek out of the Sunday system then 24/25th and late Jan to add to those monthly totals but the next 7 days doesnt look to do much in that category

 

[bluewave]

NYC will have a shot at the first single digits of the season next week. Models starting to more of a W to WSW flow which moves south of the Great Lakes. But if the flow is too much from the SW then NYC may struggle to get much under 10°. So the wind direction will play a big role in how cold we get since the Great Lakes are still so warm.

The Great Lakes were so cold and Erie was often frozen over in the 1970s to early 1990s that NYC could go below 0° with flow across the Great Lakes. These days NYC generally needs a N to NW flow down the Hudson Valley for its coldest readings.

It’s interesting how 22-23 was one of our warmest winters but NYC was still able to get down to 3° in early February since the N to NW flow avoided the warm Great Lakes. Same went for another warmest  winter in 15-16 when NYC went below 0° on a NNW cold air drain down the Hudson Valley. So it will be funny if the NYC low ends up higher than in February 2023 even though this winter has been a colder one than that one through mid to late January. 
 

[FPizz]

36 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Certainly a chance to beat the season lows and perhaps departures for Tue and Wed next week.

I got below zero one day in Dec.  Would be cool to do that 2 months in a row, that doesn't happen often.

[North and West]

Another week of kicking the can down the road in relation to snow storms.  It's a repeat of last year with the "pattern change" but this time we have the cold but nothing else going on. How frustrating. 

Eh, it’s beyond our control.


.

[NorthShoreWx]

8 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Thats not possible. The first ever plane wasn't invented until 1903. 

The word airport probably didn't even get invented until after. What use is a port if there's nothing in the air? 

It's also highly unlikely there would have been any patch of ground named after Charles Lindbergh 20 years before he was born.

[Dark Star]

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC will have a shot at the first single digits of the season next week. Models starting to more of a W to WSW flow which moves south of the Great Lakes. But if the flow is too much from the SW then NYC may struggle to get much under 10°. So the wind direction will play a big role in how cold we get since the Great Lakes are still so warm.

The Great Lakes were so cold and Erie was often frozen over in the 1970s to early 1990s that NYC could go below 0° with flow across the Great Lakes. These days NYC generally needs a N to NW flow down the Hudson Valley for its coldest readings.

It’s interesting how 22-23 was one of our warmest winters but NYC was still able to get down to 3° in early February since the N to NW flow avoided the warm Great Lakes. Same went for another warmest  winter in 15-16 when NYC went below 0° on a NNW cold air drain down the Hudson Valley. So it will be funny if the NYC low ends up higher than in February 2023 even though this winter has been a colder one than that one through mid to late January. 
 

Does the Great Lake affect the daytime max and nighttime minimums differently?

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

I got below zero one day in Dec.  Would be cool to do that 2 months in a row, that doesn't happen often.

Was that on 12/22/23rd ?  Got to4 /  5 here as my lowest.

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Does the Great Lake affect the daytime max and nighttime minimums differently?

This has been a one of a kind January so far in terms of the high vs low temperature departure divergence. We started out with some of the warmest Great Lakes SSTs and lowest ice cover for this time of year. Plus the record warmth around Hudson Bay and delayed freeze-up. So the strong winds crossing the Great Lakes have resulted in the cloudiest January so far on record in Buffalo. The stronger winds and clouds have resulted in the minimum departures running much higher than the maximums. 
 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=BUF&hour=12&year=2025&month=1&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

[EWR757]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has been a one of a kind January so far in terms of the high vs low temperature departure divergence. We started out with some of the warmest Great Lakes SSTs and lowest ice cover for this time of year. Plus the record warmth around Hudson Bay and delayed freeze-up. So the strong winds crossing the Great Lakes have resulted in the cloudiest January so far on record in Buffalo. The stronger winds and clouds have resulted in the minimum departures running much higher than the maximums. 
 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=BUF&hour=12&year=2025&month=1&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

Reminds me of my very dark winters on the east side of Cleveland.   I'm grateful for the downsloping on the Eastern seaboard. 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This has been a one of a kind January so far in terms of the high vs low temperature departure divergence. We started out with some of the warmest Great Lakes SSTs and lowest ice cover for this time of year. Plus the record warmth around Hudson Bay and delayed freeze-up. So the strong winds crossing the Great Lakes have resulted in the cloudiest January so far on record in Buffalo. The stronger winds and clouds have resulted in the minimum departures running much higher than the maximums. 
 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=BUF&hour=12&year=2025&month=1&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

The question is, do the Great Lakes temperatures affect the NYC daytime maximum and overnight minimum similarly?

[NorthShoreWx]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has been a one of a kind January so far in terms of the high vs low temperature departure divergence. We started out with some of the warmest Great Lakes SSTs and lowest ice cover for this time of year. Plus the record warmth around Hudson Bay and delayed freeze-up.

 

 

 

 

The 12z GFS remains quite cold through the end of the run.  One thing that I find interesting is that the surface temperature maps imply that the remaining open water in the eastern and northeastern parts of Hudson Bay will remain unfrozen for the next 384 hours.  That seems unlikely since the open waters are shallower than much larger frozen area to their west and the surrounding temperatures are forecasted (in this run of the GFS) to be below normal much of the time beginning this weekend.  I imagine the temperatures in that area are overdone late in the model run.

 

[Allsnow]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has been a one of a kind January so far in terms of the high vs low temperature departure divergence. We started out with some of the warmest Great Lakes SSTs and lowest ice cover for this time of year. Plus the record warmth around Hudson Bay and delayed freeze-up. So the strong winds crossing the Great Lakes have resulted in the cloudiest January so far on record in Buffalo. The stronger winds and clouds have resulted in the minimum departures running much higher than the maximums. 
 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=BUF&hour=12&year=2025&month=1&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

The most impressive part of this winter so far is how locked in the cold has been for a month and a half. We haven’t experienced a stretch like this since 17/18. While it was nothing terribly below normal or came with lots of snow, it did prove many forecasts wrong for this winter. We haven’t experienced any of the torch mjo phases to completely end our winter 

[SnowGoose69]

41 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The 12z GFS remains quite cold through the end of the run.  One thing that I find interesting is that the surface temperature maps imply that the remaining open water in the eastern and northeastern parts of Hudson Bay will remain unfrozen for the next 384 hours.  That seems unlikely since the open waters are shallower than much larger frozen area to their west and the surrounding temperatures are forecasted (in this run of the GFS) to be below normal much of the time beginning this weekend.  I imagine the temperatures in that area are overdone late in the model run.

 

No matter how many times that SE ridge keeps trying to appear beyond about 290 hours it keeps getting flattened or pushed east once we get closer in time

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

No matter how many times that SE ridge keeps trying to appear beyond about 290 hours it keeps getting flattened or pushed east once we get closer in time

We could actually use a little more of a Southeast Ridge since the storm track has been so suppressed this month.

 

[Allsnow]

Just now, bluewave said:

We could actually use a little more Southeast Ridge since the storm track has been so suppressed this month.

 

Why didn’t the nao block connect with the ridge off the east coast this winter? 

[MJO812]

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

[bluewave]

44 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Why didn’t the nao block connect with the ridge off the east coast this winter? 

The very fast Northern Stream was forced south under the +PNA -AO block carving out a very deep 50/50 low. 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

The most impressive part of this winter so far is how locked in the cold has been for a month and a half. We haven’t experienced a stretch like this since 17/18. While it was nothing terribly below normal or came with lots of snow, it did prove many forecasts wrong for this winter. We haven’t experienced any of the torch mjo phases to completely end our winter 

the warm seasonal forecasts look to bust hard unless there's a mega torch in Feb or something and that appears unlikely

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

The most impressive part of this winter so far is how locked in the cold has been for a month and a half. We haven’t experienced a stretch like this since 17/18. While it was nothing terribly below normal or came with lots of snow, it did prove many forecasts wrong for this winter. We haven’t experienced any of the torch mjo phases to completely end our winter 

I was discussing back in late October how the early MJO indicator was pointing toward a La Niña mismatch December with a +PNA like 2020 and 2017. So the fact that December into January was colder than the model forecasts from October into early November wasn’t that much of a surprise to me. But as I mentioned back then, other factors weren’t lining up the way they were in 2017 and 2020. Mainly that the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet hasn’t relaxed this winter yet like 2020 and 2017 did. So we have much less snowfall by mid-January than those two mismatch Decembers into January did. 

[donsutherland1]

A colder air mass has returned to the region. Temperatures will generally average below normal across the region through Thursday or Friday before it turns briefly milder. Some snow flurries or even a period of light snow is possible tomorrow afternoon into Friday morning as milder air begins to push into the region.

Highs will mainly be in the lower 30s and lows will mainly be in the lower 20s in New York City and Philadelphia and teens outside the Cities through Thursday. Temperatures should return to the upper 30s on Friday.

An extended period of generally below normal temperatures is underway in the New York City area. The cold regime will likely last into at least the fourth week of January. The third week of January could see the month's first genuine Arctic outbreak around the the January 20-23 period. It is likely that New York City will experience its coldest weather this winter. Temperatures could fall into the low teens or even the single digits for lows. Moderation is possible during the closing days of January.

There is potential for some snow to accompany the arrival of the Arctic air and perhaps afterward. However, with the AO forecast to become predominantly positive with the exception of a window during the January 18-24 period, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City and Philadelphia areas could become limited.

At present, it appears that both cities may only be in line for light snowfalls, one on Sunday into Monday with another storm passing far to the south and east on Tuesday into Wednesday and possibly bringing some light snow or flurries mainly from southern New Jersey and southward.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was -3.86 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.742 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.0° (3.9° below normal).

 

[wishcast_hater]

Since Mother Nature is not cooperating I am getting desperate and was looking to make my own snow.

https://www.snowathome.com/


.

[EastonSN+]

The wave for the 24th on the GFS is mainly rain/coastal hugger after C-2 generally across the board (some ice).

[psv88]

High today was 33. About normal for mid January. 

[wdrag]

No thread for this afternoon-night buts plan on placing your obs here... Widespread flurries, patches of snow showers. My guess is CP T-0.3",  eastern LI-e CT may see 1/2-1" amounts in some places (ocean enhanced a bit). Poconos an inch or a bit more.  Spotty 1/2" amounts into w NJ/se NYS.    Enjoy the flakes. 

[jm1220]

Way colder than expected, down to 13 this AM. 

[Cfa]

8 hours ago, psv88 said:

High today was 33. About normal for mid January. 

In Chicago maybe. This January is a nightmare. Still sitting at only about an inch of snow for the season though.

Down to 15 here this morning.

[SACRUS]

 

18 / 8 off a low of 16 here.  One more colder below normal day before moderating Fri and becoming warmer on Saturday. We'll see how much we can squeeze out of the oggshore system Sunday with light flurries and snow and temps dropping.  Very cold Mon - Wed and likely challenging and surpassing the season cold from Dec 22/23 both actual temps and the departures.  Overall cold through the 25th ahead of moderations.  Storm chances or cold suppression in the 23-24 period?  

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 58 (1995)  *odd day with a low record max below 60s
NYC: 58 (1995)
LGA: 59 (1953)
JFK: 58 (1995)

 

Lows:

EWR: 0 (2004)
NYC: 1 (2004)
LGA: 2 (2004)
JFK: 1 (2004)

 

Historical:

1831 - A great snowstorm raged from Georgia to Maine. Snowfall totals greater than 30 inches were reported from Pennsylvania across southern New England. (David Ludlum)

1964 - Fort Worth, TX, received 7.5 inches of snow, and Dallas reported a foot of snow. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A winter storm produced a total of 61 inches of snow at Rye CO, and wind gusts to 100 mph in Utah. The storm then spread heavy snow from the Texas panhandle to Indiana. Tulia TX received 16 inches of snow, and up to 14 inches was reported in western Oklahoma. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A small storm in the western U.S. produced a foot of snow and wind gusts to 70 mph in the Lake Tahoe Basin of Nevada. Showers and thunderstorms produced 2.28 inches of rain at Brownsville TX,their third highest total for any day in January. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong chinook winds plagued much of the state of Wyoming. Winds gusted to 80 mph at Cody, and wind gusts to 100 mph were reported in eastern and northwestern Wyoming. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Heavy snow fell across the Prince Williams Sound area and the Susitna Valley of southern Alaska. Valdez was buried under 64.9 inches of snow in less than two days, including a record 47.5 inches in 24 hours. Up to 44 inches of snow was reported in the Susitna Valley. The heavy snow blocked roads, closed schools, and sank half a dozen vessels in the harbor. (Storm Data)

 

2008: An area of low pressure brought snow, sleet, and freezing rain across northern Georgia. Three to four inches was a typical amount reported from many of the northeast Georgia counties.