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7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I foresee a very dry and very hot summer....

If the dryness continues I'd agree.  

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Too deep into the trough 

 

Hopefully we score this weekend as it will be another week of cold/dry 

Knowing our luck it will rain.   LOL  

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9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

 

Knowing our luck it will rain.   LOL  

The "problem" with rain at the moment is it won't do our groundwater levels and soil moisture any good because the ground is frozen. All it will do is run off and sort of add to upper drainage basin levels, not much will even reach the reservoirs. Each small round of snow at least keeps the wildfire danger lower. 

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4 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

The "problem" with rain at the moment is it won't do our groundwater levels and soil moisture any good because the ground is frozen. All it will do is run off and sort of add to upper drainage basin levels, not much will even reach the reservoirs. Each small round of snow at least keeps the wildfire danger lower. 

This is why I take drought updates with a  huge grain of salt.

% of normal rainfall plus or minus doesn't mean anything this time of year.

plus our average rainfall has been artificially spiking anyway, normally we should get 40 inches of rain per year.

we need to get rid of all this excess greenery that burns up every time it doesn't rain for a week or two, we didn't have fires like this back in 2002 during our last drought.  We just have too much greenery that needs to be cut down to reduce fire risk.

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21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


QPF from late November till now has been well below average. We are still solidly in drought conditions. And it is absolutely possible that next week ends up suppressed with fast flow again. Since November, there has been a total lack of West Atlantic storm traffic to jam the flow up and slow it down, everything just races off the coast with no mechanism to bring it up here. “Contentweatherguy” has been spot on with this all winter long

 

 

 

 

Late November? More like 0 or near 0 rainfall for all of October and the first half of November lol

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13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Late November? More like 0 or near 0 rainfall for all of October and the first half of November lol

We have been doing very well east of NYC since the fall dry pattern ended back in late November with 10.00”+ in many areas.

 

Data for November 20, 2024 through January 13, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 11.42
CT COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 11.30
NY NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 11.19
CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 11.15
CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 11.13
NY ST. JAMES COOP 10.79
NY CENTERPORT COOP 10.77
NY CENTERPORT 1.1 SE CoCoRaHS 10.73
CT PAWCATUCK 1.8 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.73
CT EAST LYME 0.6 N CoCoRaHS 10.73
NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 10.71
CT PAWCATUCK 0.8 SE CoCoRaHS 10.67
CT STONINGTON 1.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.66
CT CHESTER CENTER 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.63
CT UNCASVILLE-OXOBOXO VALLEY 1.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.63
NY SELDEN 1.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.48
CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP 10.42
NY PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.41
CT HIGGANUM 0.8 NE CoCoRaHS 10.29
NY CENTER MORICHES 0.5 N CoCoRaHS 10.28
NY MANORVILLE 1.8 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.26
NY ISLIP TERRACE 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.23
CT HIGGANUM 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 10.22
CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.22
CT MYSTIC 1.6 W CoCoRaHS 10.22
CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.15
NY ISLIP TERRACE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 10.14
CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 10.14
CT NORWICH 5.4 SE CoCoRaHS 10.13
NY SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.03
NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 10.03
NY CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 10.03
NY FISHERS ISLAND 0.5 NE CoCoRaHS 9.97
CT MONROE 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 9.96
NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 9.88
CT GUILFORD COOP 9.88
NY MALVERNE 0.5 SE CoCoRaHS 9.87
CT NORWICH 5.2 SE CoCoRaHS 9.87
CT JEWETT CITY 3.0 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.86
NY REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE CoCoRaHS 9.85
NY SEAFORD 0.4 SE CoCoRaHS 9.79
CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.79
CT STONINGTON 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.73
NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 9.72
NY RIDGE 1.5 SE CoCoRaHS 9.72
CT DANBURY COOP 9.72
CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 9.71
CT ESSEX VILLAGE 0.9 S CoCoRaHS 9.70
NY LITTLE NECK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 9.69
CT NEW LONDON 1.0 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.68
NY BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.67
CT MYSTIC 3.4 NW CoCoRaHS 9.62
NY RIVERHEAD 1.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 9.60
NY MANHASSET HILLS 0.2 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.55
NY HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.54
CT MOODUS 0.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 9.54
CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 9.51
CT GRISWOLD 0.9 N CoCoRaHS 9.49
CT WATERFORD 1.1 E CoCoRaHS 9.47
CT GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW CoCoRaHS 9.43
NY BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.41
CT KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.39
NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 9.39
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 9.37
CT NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.35
CT OLD LYME 1.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.27
CT RIDGEFIELD 2.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.25
CT STAMFORD 1.0 S CoCoRaHS 9.25
CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW CoCoRaHS 9.24
CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.22
CT MADISON CENTER 1.3 N CoCoRaHS 9.21
CT MYSTIC 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 9.21
CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.18
CT NEW CANAAN 3.8 N CoCoRaHS 9.16
CT NEWTOWN 4.6 SE CoCoRaHS 9.16
CT COLCHESTER 5.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.15
CT BETHEL 3.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.09
NY JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 9.07
CT NIANTIC 1.1 SW CoCoRaHS 9.07
NJ HARRISON COOP 9.02
NY SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 9.01
CT OLD LYME 3.4 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.01
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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have been doing very well east of NYC since the fall dry pattern ended back in late November with 10.00”+ in many areas.

 

Data for November 20, 2024 through January 13, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 11.42
CT COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 11.30
NY NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 11.19
CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 11.15
CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 11.13
NY ST. JAMES COOP 10.79
NY CENTERPORT COOP 10.77
NY CENTERPORT 1.1 SE CoCoRaHS 10.73
CT PAWCATUCK 1.8 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.73
CT EAST LYME 0.6 N CoCoRaHS 10.73
NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 10.71
CT PAWCATUCK 0.8 SE CoCoRaHS 10.67
CT STONINGTON 1.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.66
CT CHESTER CENTER 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.63
CT UNCASVILLE-OXOBOXO VALLEY 1.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.63
NY SELDEN 1.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.48
CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP 10.42
NY PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.41
CT HIGGANUM 0.8 NE CoCoRaHS 10.29
NY CENTER MORICHES 0.5 N CoCoRaHS 10.28
NY MANORVILLE 1.8 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.26
NY ISLIP TERRACE 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.23
CT HIGGANUM 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 10.22
CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.22
CT MYSTIC 1.6 W CoCoRaHS 10.22
CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.15
NY ISLIP TERRACE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 10.14
CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 10.14
CT NORWICH 5.4 SE CoCoRaHS 10.13
NY SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.03
NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 10.03
NY CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 10.03
NY FISHERS ISLAND 0.5 NE CoCoRaHS 9.97
CT MONROE 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 9.96
NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 9.88
CT GUILFORD COOP 9.88
NY MALVERNE 0.5 SE CoCoRaHS 9.87
CT NORWICH 5.2 SE CoCoRaHS 9.87
CT JEWETT CITY 3.0 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.86
NY REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE CoCoRaHS 9.85
NY SEAFORD 0.4 SE CoCoRaHS 9.79
CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.79
CT STONINGTON 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.73
NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 9.72
NY RIDGE 1.5 SE CoCoRaHS 9.72
CT DANBURY COOP 9.72
CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 9.71
CT ESSEX VILLAGE 0.9 S CoCoRaHS 9.70
NY LITTLE NECK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 9.69
CT NEW LONDON 1.0 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.68
NY BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.67
CT MYSTIC 3.4 NW CoCoRaHS 9.62
NY RIVERHEAD 1.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 9.60
NY MANHASSET HILLS 0.2 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.55
NY HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.54
CT MOODUS 0.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 9.54
CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 9.51
CT GRISWOLD 0.9 N CoCoRaHS 9.49
CT WATERFORD 1.1 E CoCoRaHS 9.47
CT GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW CoCoRaHS 9.43
NY BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.41
CT KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.39
NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 9.39
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 9.37
CT NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.35
CT OLD LYME 1.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.27
CT RIDGEFIELD 2.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.25
CT STAMFORD 1.0 S CoCoRaHS 9.25
CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW CoCoRaHS 9.24
CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.22
CT MADISON CENTER 1.3 N CoCoRaHS 9.21
CT MYSTIC 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 9.21
CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.18
CT NEW CANAAN 3.8 N CoCoRaHS 9.16
CT NEWTOWN 4.6 SE CoCoRaHS 9.16
CT COLCHESTER 5.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.15
CT BETHEL 3.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.09
NY JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 9.07
CT NIANTIC 1.1 SW CoCoRaHS 9.07
NJ HARRISON COOP 9.02
NY SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 9.01
CT OLD LYME 3.4 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.01

But it's gone back to dry now in the winter.  In a way it's good, those high rainfall totals belong on the gulf coast not up here.

 

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12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But it's gone back to dry now in the winter.  In a way it's good, those high rainfall totals belong on the gulf coast not up here.

 

This January drier period looks more transient compared to the extended dry period from late August into late November. 

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Looks we're locked in for a solidly below normal snowfall winter yet again. Cannot get the southern stream to cooperate and track a low up the coast. The arctic air is gonna completely shut down any chance of precip.

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

This is why I take drought updates with a  huge grain of salt.

% of normal rainfall plus or minus doesn't mean anything this time of year.

plus our average rainfall has been artificially spiking anyway, normally we should get 40 inches of rain per year.

we need to get rid of all this excess greenery that burns up every time it doesn't rain for a week or two, we didn't have fires like this back in 2002 during our last drought.  We just have too much greenery that needs to be cut down to reduce fire risk.

Rakes and vacuums dude ;)

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I'm still holding some paltry snow piles (off only 1.5-2 inches of high ratio fluff), so far definitely reminded of the 2013-2015 winters, where even here I had snowpack for weeks on end (was just talking to my wife about how we had an absolute glacier on our front porch for weeks). If we just had some more snow, this would've been great winter to retain it. At least relative to other recent winters where even good snow is here today, gone tomorrow as we hit 50-60 inevitably two or three days later.

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11 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I'm still holding some paltry snow piles (off only 1.5-2 inches of high ratio fluff), so far definitely reminded of the 2013-2015 winters, where even here I had snowpack for weeks on end (was just talking to my wife about how we had an absolute glacier on our front porch for weeks). If we just had some more snow, this would've been great winter to retain it. At least relative to other recent winters where even good snow is here today, gone tomorrow as we hit 50-60 inevitably two or three days later.

do you remember 2008-09? this is a somewhat lesser version of that winter

 

2010-11 was our best snowpack winter

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44 minutes ago, Picard said:

All of NJ is still covered in D1-D3 drought conditions.  These piddling little snows have done little, so any more extensive precipitation is welcome.
Hopefully we can get into a wetter period, as heading towards spring this dry makes me a little queasy.

last two springs have been dry too.

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57 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I'm still holding some paltry snow piles (off only 1.5-2 inches of high ratio fluff), so far definitely reminded of the 2013-2015 winters, where even here I had snowpack for weeks on end (was just talking to my wife about how we had an absolute glacier on our front porch for weeks). If we just had some more snow, this would've been great winter to retain it. At least relative to other recent winters where even good snow is here today, gone tomorrow as we hit 50-60 inevitably two or three days later.

Yeah, 50 days with over 1” OTG was a much different pattern compared to recent years.

 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending days with 1” or more OTG
2025-04-30 9  
2024-04-30 16  
2023-04-30 0  
2022-04-30 12  
2021-04-30 37  
2020-04-30 4  
2019-04-30 11  
2018-04-30 28  
2017-04-30 18  
2016-04-30 18  
2015-04-30 53  
2014-04-30 62  
2013-04-30 13  
2012-04-30 6  
2011-04-30 57  
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29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, 50 days with over 1” OTG was like a different universe compared to recent years.

 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending days with 1” or more OTG
2025-04-30 9  
2024-04-30 16  
2023-04-30 0  
2022-04-30 12  
2021-04-30 37  
2020-04-30 4  
2019-04-30 11  
2018-04-30 28  
2017-04-30 18  
2016-04-30 18  
2015-04-30 53  
2014-04-30 62  
2013-04-30 13  
2012-04-30 6  
2011-04-30 57  

wild how did 2013-14 have more snow on the ground than either 2014-15 or 2010-11 that seems impossible

all I remember about 2013-14 is a ton of snow to rain events and also warm ups that melted the snow very quickly.  We must have had a different winter on the south shore.  2014-15 and 2010-11 were both much much better than 2013-14 here.

 

Also how many such days did 1995-96, 2002-03 and 2009-10 have, Chris?

 

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18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wild how did 2013-14 have more snow on the ground than either 2014-15 or 2010-11 that seems impossible

all I remember about 2013-14 is a ton of snow to rain events and also warm ups that melted the snow very quickly.  We must have had a different winter on the south shore.  2014-15 and 2010-11 were both much much better than 2013-14 here.

 

Also how many such days did 1995-96, 2002-03 and 2009-10 have, Chris?

 

13-14 was a more impressive winter to our west for days with 1” OTG.
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending days with 1” OTG
1 1995-1996 62 0
2 2004-2005 55 0
3 1977-1978 53 1
4 2014-2015 48 0
5 1993-1994 46 3
6 2010-2011 45 0
7 2013-2014 39 0
- 2000-2001 39 23
8 1964-1965 37 1
9 1976-1977 36 0
10 1963-1964 35 7
11 1969-1970 34 2
12 2009-2010 32 0
13 2020-2021 30 0
- 2017-2018 30 0
14 2008-2009 29 0
- 2003-2004 29 7
15 2012-2013 27 0


 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending with 1” OTG
1 1995-1996 68 0
2 1977-1978 66 0
3 1993-1994 64 0
4 2013-2014 62 0
5 1947-1948 60 3
6 2010-2011 57 5
- 1935-1936 57 0
7 1960-1961 55 0
- 1917-1918 55 6
8 2014-2015 53 8
- 1919-1920 53 4
9 1976-1977 51 0
10 1933-1934 50 0
11 1969-1970 47 0
- 1944-1945 47 0
12 2002-2003 46 23
13 2000-2001 45 0
14 1986-1987 44 0
- 1922-1923 44 6
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27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

13-14 was a more impressive winter to our west for days with 1” OTG.
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending days with 1” OTG
1 1995-1996 62 0
2 2004-2005 55 0
3 1977-1978 53 1
4 2014-2015 48 0
5 1993-1994 46 3
6 2010-2011 45 0
7 2013-2014 39 0
- 2000-2001 39 23
8 1964-1965 37 1
9 1976-1977 36 0
10 1963-1964 35 7
11 1969-1970 34 2
12 2009-2010 32 0
13 2020-2021 30 0
- 2017-2018 30 0
14 2008-2009 29 0
- 2003-2004 29 7
15 2012-2013 27 0


 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending with 1” OTG
1 1995-1996 68 0
2 1977-1978 66 0
3 1993-1994 64 0
4 2013-2014 62 0
5 1947-1948 60 3
6 2010-2011 57 5
- 1935-1936 57 0
7 1960-1961 55 0
- 1917-1918 55 6
8 2014-2015 53 8
- 1919-1920 53 4
9 1976-1977 51 0
10 1933-1934 50 0
11 1969-1970 47 0
- 1944-1945 47 0
12 2002-2003 46 23
13 2000-2001 45 0
14 1986-1987 44 0
- 1922-1923 44 6

Thanks Chris, do you have a similar list for JFK? Wild how high up 1976-77 is on this list and we only had about 25" of snow that winter?

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51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

13-14 was a more impressive winter to our west for days with 1” OTG.
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending days with 1” OTG
1 1995-1996 62 0
2 2004-2005 55 0
3 1977-1978 53 1
4 2014-2015 48 0
5 1993-1994 46 3
6 2010-2011 45 0
7 2013-2014 39 0
- 2000-2001 39 23
8 1964-1965 37 1
9 1976-1977 36 0
10 1963-1964 35 7
11 1969-1970 34 2
12 2009-2010 32 0
13 2020-2021 30 0
- 2017-2018 30 0
14 2008-2009 29 0
- 2003-2004 29 7
15 2012-2013 27 0


 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending with 1” OTG
1 1995-1996 68 0
2 1977-1978 66 0
3 1993-1994 64 0
4 2013-2014 62 0
5 1947-1948 60 3
6 2010-2011 57 5
- 1935-1936 57 0
7 1960-1961 55 0
- 1917-1918 55 6
8 2014-2015 53 8
- 1919-1920 53 4
9 1976-1977 51 0
10 1933-1934 50 0
11 1969-1970 47 0
- 1944-1945 47 0
12 2002-2003 46 23
13 2000-2001 45 0
14 1986-1987 44 0
- 1922-1923 44 6

Puts in perspective how, for us retention snobs, having 13-14 and 14-15 back to back was something of a dream come true.  Sign me up for that anytime!

BTW, I too was living on the south shore at the time and recall that, even when snow depth fell under 1”, there still were plenty of cement-like patches and piles dotting the landscape.  I don’t think the ground was completely bare for most of January and February.

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Those winds were crossing the warmer Great Lakes. Plus Canada still hasn’t cooled off yet from all the record warmth in recent years. This has lead to the delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay. It looks like Canada is finally forecast to start getting colder next weekend. 
 

IMG_2732.thumb.png.09bf5361d1e24d5a55a857076116b8f6.png


IMG_2733.thumb.png.fb4dd37a492492cbdc9f07234774e3bb.png

Looks like I have to go back to school.  I could have sworn one of the basic principles is that it is warmer in the day and colder at night?  The sun provides light and heating.  Without the sun, the warmth collected during the day radiates upwards into space (at night).  Sometimes this isn't so, depending upon timing of fronts, clouds, inversions, etc.  And wind.  Wind retards radiational cooling at night.  Now if you live on the ocean, I could see the heat from the water moderating temperatures a bit at night.  However, I usually see Bayville NJ colder many nights than Garwood NJ.  Bayville is right on the water and about 50 miles south, Garwood is inland about 10 miles.  If the Great Lakes are tempering our night time temperatures all the way down to the NYC burbs, it should equally temper the day time temperatures?  I realize eastern Canada has not yet seen true arctic air, but it doesn't matter if it is land or lake temperatures.  A large lake can affect nearby areas at night, but not all the way down here.  It is the air temperatures in general.  We have not had much chance at radiational cooling at night, predominantly because of the strong sustained winds.

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