January 2025

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

if the great lakes are so much warmer, shouldn't they be dumping a ton of snow in the lake effect belts and wouldn't the flow off all that snow cover make us much colder?

They are taking longer than normal to cool down due to recent record warmth and keeping the minimums warmer so far this month in the Northeast.

 

[wdrag]

Before we get too far ahead... some 12z/12 ensembles offer 0.1-0.5" snow fall to NJ/LI/se NYS, among other nearby locations this Thursday afternoon-evening for the sewd moving short wave across the Great Lakes that may help limit warming here next weekend and enhance our opportunity for mixed wintry to snow on Sunday the 19th(at least the interior). 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

They are taking longer than normal to cool down due to recent record warmth.

 

 

I remember seeing that our SST were even 47 degrees on New Years day for the polar plunge, is this the warmest the SST have ever been on New Years and the longest it's ever taken for them to cool below 50 degrees, Chris?

[donsutherland1]

Since December 1, 72% of days have seen a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), including 47% during which it was -1.000 or below. The mean winter value to date is -0.871. As a result, both New York City and Philadelphia have seen their coldest start to winter since Winter 2017-2018. New York City has had a mean winter temperature of 36.5° (1.2° below normal) and Philadelphia has had a mean winter temperature of 36.5° (0.9° below normal).

Tomorrow will be fair and pleasant. Temperatures will again top out in the upper 30s and lower 40s in New York City and Philadelphia. A cold front will then cross the region tomorrow night or early Tuesday morning, possibly with some snow flurries. In its wake, temperatures will again be below normal through at least Friday.

An extended period of generally below normal temperatures is underway in the New York City area. The cold regime will likely last into at least the fourth week of January. The third week of January could see the month's first genuine Arctic outbreak around the the January 20-23 period. There is potential for some snow to accompany the arrival of the Arctic air. Moderation is possible during the days of January.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was -20.82 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.367 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.5° (3.4° below normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

On 1/5/2025 at 9:08 AM, donsutherland1 said:

Week ahead idea:

The final numbers:

[MJO812]

[Snowstorms]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

if the great lakes are so much warmer, shouldn't they be dumping a ton of snow in the lake effect belts and wouldn't the flow off all that snow cover make us much colder?

Most of us living in the Great Lakes are running warmer than normal this month when compared to the old 81-10 normals vs the blowtorched 91-20 normals. I've only gotten down to 8 so far this month, which is nothing impressive, given our average low of 13 currently.

Those living in the path of the snow belts are doing amazing, snow wise. Most of us aren't. I've been fortunate enough, which is rare btw, to get a few lake effect streamers which have given me a grand total of 7" since Dec 1 of the total 17" for the season. The rest was cause of clippers, 1-3", here and there. 

It's crazy what consistently warm winters can do to lake temperatures. 

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

They are taking longer than normal to cool down due to recent record warmth and keeping the minimums warmer so far this month in the Northeast.

 

Could be, but still not sold.  Overnight temps in northeast Jersey did not drop as much due to the relentless winds, inhibiting radiational cooling. 

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Could be, but still not sold.  Overnight temps in northeast Jersey did not drop as much due to the relentless winds, inhibiting radiational cooling. 

Those winds were crossing the warmer Great Lakes. Plus Canada still hasn’t cooled off yet from all the record warmth in recent years. This has lead to the delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay. It looks like Canada is finally forecast to start getting colder next weekend. 
 

[EWR757]

A buddy in upstate New York, near the Canadian border has reported precipitation in 54 of the last 57 days.   Those lakes sure are warm, and the wind sure has been strong. 

Though, the western basin of Lake Erie is freezing over.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

A buddy in upstate New York, near the Canadian border has reported precipitation in 54 of the last 57 days.   Those lakes sure are warm, and the wind sure has been strong. 

Though, the western basin of Lake Erie is freezing over.

Obviously once the lakes are frozen over they won’t be modifying any of the air heading our way anymore. The cold coming next week should be quite severe since the flow of air finally looks to be Arctic origin and over frozen/snowy ground. 

[bluewave]

Looks like January 20 to 27 could be our coldest week of the winter so far. Then we see the La Niña seasonal progression on all the guidance. So the usual La Niña warm up heading into February.

EPS Jan 20 to 27

 

Jan 27 to Feb 3

 

 

[EastonSN+]

Looks like the mjo will be heading into phase 3 at a decent amplitude. That being said, we were in the warm phases in December and still averaged colder than normal, albeit be it with little snow.

Going into February we have questions: 

1.) will the EPO continue to average negative, therefore keeping colder air on this side of the globe? 

2.) will competing factors offset the warm mjo phases in the same manner that occurred in December? 

3.) in the New England thread someone mentioned that it looks like it's heading colder again as we had toward March, begging the question of how long will we stay in the warm phases. Are are going to transition to a Nina look a bit later than usual, could this just be a pattern reload, or a pattern flip? 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Looks like the mjo will be heading into phase 3 at a decent amplitude. That being said, we were in the warm phases in December and still averaged colder than normal, albeit be it with little snow.

Going into February we have questions: 

1.) will the EPO continue to average negative, therefore keeping colder air on this side of the globe? 

2.) will competing factors offset the warm mjo phases in the same manner that occurred in December? 

3.) in the New England thread someone mentioned that it looks like it's heading colder again as we had toward March, begging the question of how long will we stay in the warm phases. Are are going to transition to a Nina look a bit later than usual, could this just be a pattern reload, or a pattern flip? 

Maybe he meant an SSW in February will give us a colder March? That was mentioned in the ENSO thread in the main forum.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe he meant an SSW in February will give us a colder March? That was mentioned in the ENSO thread in the main forum.

One factor with March then I've learned from Reading this thread over the years is that the mjo phases affect March differently than other months due to shorter wavelengths. Therefore if we are in a warm phase in February it could end up a cold and stormy phase in March (which saved many a winter in the early 90s in late '80s).

Of course an SSWE can work wonders like 2018, however can also have negligible effects. 

 

[SACRUS]

 

31 / 22 , warmest day since the first with low to mid 40s with clouds approaching.  Bit a of roller coaster temp-wise the next 7 - 10 days (bias colder than normal).  Step down Tuesday to below normal and through Thursday , before warming Friday and this weekend.  Then the deep arctic drains south into the GL/MW and heads east for the period Jan 20 - 27th, before a warmer close to the month.  Drier look this week with only light snow showers or rain showers through Saturday.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 70 (1932)
NYC: 68 (1932)
LGA: 63 (2017)
JFK: 58 (2017)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (1981)
NYC: -3 (1914)
LGA: 4 (1981)
JFK: 8 (1981)

 

Historical:

 

1862: Known as the Great Flood of 1862, a series of storms from December 1861 to January 1862 produced the largest flood in the recorded history of Oregon, Nevada, and California. Estimated property damage in California alone was $10 million in 1862 dollars. More than 200,000 head of cattle lost their lives. The State of California went bankrupt, and the economy evolved from ranching to farm-based. The same areas are expected to be flooded again if another ARkStorm (USGS name) impacts California, which could cause over $750 billion (2011 USD), making it more disastrous than California's long-overdue major earthquake. California is currently overdue for a Megastorm, and such an event would have severe impacts on the entire U.S. economy. 

1886 - A great blizzard struck the state of Kansas without warning. The storm claimed 50 to 100 lives, and eighty percent of the cattle in the state. (David Ludlum)

1888 - The mercury plunged to 65 degrees below zero at Fort Keough, located near Miles City MT. The reading stood as a record for the continental U.S. for sixty-six years. (David Ludlum)

1912 - The temperature at Oakland, MD, plunged to 40 degrees below zero to establish a state record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

 

1950: January 1950 was one of the worst winter months on record for Seattle, Washington, and surrounding areas. By the end of the month, Seattle measured 57.2 inches of snow, the most snowfall in any month since records began in 1894. The normal January snowfall is 1.4 inches. On this day, a crippling blizzard produced 40 to 50 mph winds and an astounding 20 inches. 

1987 - Dry and mild weather prevailed across the country. Nineteen cities in the Upper Midwest reported record high temperatures for the date, including Grand Island NE with a reading of 67 degrees. (National Weather Summary)

1988 - A fast moving cold front ushered arctic cold into the north central and northeastern U.S. Mason City IA reported a wind chill reading of 51 degrees below zero, and Greenville ME reported a wind chill of 63 degrees below zero. Winds along the cold front gusted to 63 mph at Rochester NY, and a thunderstorm along the cold front produced wind gusts to 62 mph at Buffalo NY, along with snow and sleet. (National Weather Summary)

1989 - Friday the 13th was bad luck primarily for the south central U.S. as an upper level weather disturbance spread a mixture of snow and sleet and freezing rain across Texas and Oklahoma. Snowfall totals in central Oklahoma ranged up to 8.5 inches at Norman. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A winter storm in the southwestern U.S. produced more than a twelve inches of snow in the mountains of California and Nevada. In northern California, Huntington Lake was buried under 40 inches of snow, and up to 20 inches was reported in northeastern Nevada. Heavy rain soaked some of the lower elevations of California. Gibraltar Dam CA was drenched with 5.33 inches of rain in two days. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[SACRUS]

 

NYC 

Jan 13, 1982: 5.6 inches of snow falls.  2 day totals (13/14) from two different storm systems would exceed 9 inches by the 14th afternoon.

[MJO812]

The models are not showing a gradient pattern like they were once showing. Another suppressive pattern might be in the works after next week with alot of  cold air around .

 

At least the NAO and AO are rising.  The EPO keeps reloading which keeps the cold intact.

[SACRUS]

 

yesterday the below normal streak (Jan 4 - 10/11th) was stopped at all of the 4 NYC sites. More of the same type of splits today.

 

Jan 12

JFK: 46 / 31 (+6)
EWR: 46 / 30 (+5)
LGA: 43 / 31 (+3)
NYC: 42 / 30 (+2)
 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

NYC 

Jan 13, 1982: 5.6 inches of snow falls.  2 day totals (13/14) from two different storm systems would exceed 9 inches by the 14th afternoon.

a great winter and snow season in January and April and also below 0 temperatures in January and teens in April for one week and 2 snow storms!

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 70 (1932)
NYC: 68 (1932)
LGA: 63 (2017)
JFK: 58 (2017)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (1981)
NYC: -3 (1914)
LGA: 4 (1981)
JFK: 8 (1981)

 

Historical:

 

1862: Known as the Great Flood of 1862, a series of storms from December 1861 to January 1862 produced the largest flood in the recorded history of Oregon, Nevada, and California. Estimated property damage in California alone was $10 million in 1862 dollars. More than 200,000 head of cattle lost their lives. The State of California went bankrupt, and the economy evolved from ranching to farm-based. The same areas are expected to be flooded again if another ARkStorm (USGS name) impacts California, which could cause over $750 billion (2011 USD), making it more disastrous than California's long-overdue major earthquake. California is currently overdue for a Megastorm, and such an event would have severe impacts on the entire U.S. economy. 

1886 - A great blizzard struck the state of Kansas without warning. The storm claimed 50 to 100 lives, and eighty percent of the cattle in the state. (David Ludlum)

1888 - The mercury plunged to 65 degrees below zero at Fort Keough, located near Miles City MT. The reading stood as a record for the continental U.S. for sixty-six years. (David Ludlum)

1912 - The temperature at Oakland, MD, plunged to 40 degrees below zero to establish a state record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

 

1950: January 1950 was one of the worst winter months on record for Seattle, Washington, and surrounding areas. By the end of the month, Seattle measured 57.2 inches of snow, the most snowfall in any month since records began in 1894. The normal January snowfall is 1.4 inches. On this day, a crippling blizzard produced 40 to 50 mph winds and an astounding 20 inches. 

1987 - Dry and mild weather prevailed across the country. Nineteen cities in the Upper Midwest reported record high temperatures for the date, including Grand Island NE with a reading of 67 degrees. (National Weather Summary)

1988 - A fast moving cold front ushered arctic cold into the north central and northeastern U.S. Mason City IA reported a wind chill reading of 51 degrees below zero, and Greenville ME reported a wind chill of 63 degrees below zero. Winds along the cold front gusted to 63 mph at Rochester NY, and a thunderstorm along the cold front produced wind gusts to 62 mph at Buffalo NY, along with snow and sleet. (National Weather Summary)

1989 - Friday the 13th was bad luck primarily for the south central U.S. as an upper level weather disturbance spread a mixture of snow and sleet and freezing rain across Texas and Oklahoma. Snowfall totals in central Oklahoma ranged up to 8.5 inches at Norman. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A winter storm in the southwestern U.S. produced more than a twelve inches of snow in the mountains of California and Nevada. In northern California, Huntington Lake was buried under 40 inches of snow, and up to 20 inches was reported in northeastern Nevada. Heavy rain soaked some of the lower elevations of California. Gibraltar Dam CA was drenched with 5.33 inches of rain in two days. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1950: January 1950 was one of the worst winter months on record for Seattle, Washington, and surrounding areas. By the end of the month, Seattle measured 57.2 inches of snow, the most snowfall in any month since records began in 1894. The normal January snowfall is 1.4 inches. On this day, a crippling blizzard produced 40 to 50 mph winds and an astounding 20 inches. 

 

wtf Tony, how can Seattle get almost 5 feet of snow in one month? They average way less than we do, if Seattle can get that much in one month we should easily be able to get 100 inches in one month!

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 70 (1932)
NYC: 68 (1932)
LGA: 63 (2017)
JFK: 58 (2017)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (1981)
NYC: -3 (1914)
LGA: 4 (1981)
JFK: 8 (1981)

 

Historical:

 

1862: Known as the Great Flood of 1862, a series of storms from December 1861 to January 1862 produced the largest flood in the recorded history of Oregon, Nevada, and California. Estimated property damage in California alone was $10 million in 1862 dollars. More than 200,000 head of cattle lost their lives. The State of California went bankrupt, and the economy evolved from ranching to farm-based. The same areas are expected to be flooded again if another ARkStorm (USGS name) impacts California, which could cause over $750 billion (2011 USD), making it more disastrous than California's long-overdue major earthquake. California is currently overdue for a Megastorm, and such an event would have severe impacts on the entire U.S. economy. 

1886 - A great blizzard struck the state of Kansas without warning. The storm claimed 50 to 100 lives, and eighty percent of the cattle in the state. (David Ludlum)

1888 - The mercury plunged to 65 degrees below zero at Fort Keough, located near Miles City MT. The reading stood as a record for the continental U.S. for sixty-six years. (David Ludlum)

1912 - The temperature at Oakland, MD, plunged to 40 degrees below zero to establish a state record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

 

1950: January 1950 was one of the worst winter months on record for Seattle, Washington, and surrounding areas. By the end of the month, Seattle measured 57.2 inches of snow, the most snowfall in any month since records began in 1894. The normal January snowfall is 1.4 inches. On this day, a crippling blizzard produced 40 to 50 mph winds and an astounding 20 inches. 

1987 - Dry and mild weather prevailed across the country. Nineteen cities in the Upper Midwest reported record high temperatures for the date, including Grand Island NE with a reading of 67 degrees. (National Weather Summary)

1988 - A fast moving cold front ushered arctic cold into the north central and northeastern U.S. Mason City IA reported a wind chill reading of 51 degrees below zero, and Greenville ME reported a wind chill of 63 degrees below zero. Winds along the cold front gusted to 63 mph at Rochester NY, and a thunderstorm along the cold front produced wind gusts to 62 mph at Buffalo NY, along with snow and sleet. (National Weather Summary)

1989 - Friday the 13th was bad luck primarily for the south central U.S. as an upper level weather disturbance spread a mixture of snow and sleet and freezing rain across Texas and Oklahoma. Snowfall totals in central Oklahoma ranged up to 8.5 inches at Norman. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A winter storm in the southwestern U.S. produced more than a twelve inches of snow in the mountains of California and Nevada. In northern California, Huntington Lake was buried under 40 inches of snow, and up to 20 inches was reported in northeastern Nevada. Heavy rain soaked some of the lower elevations of California. Gibraltar Dam CA was drenched with 5.33 inches of rain in two days. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

the subzero cold wave of 1981 continued....

[SACRUS]

 

Temps

 

Greatest cold departures (so far)

NYC: -20 (12/22)
LGA: -19 (12/22)
EWR: -18 (12/22)
JFK: -18 (12/22)

 

Lowest  minimum of the season (so far):

EWR: 11 (12/23) 
LGA: 12 (12/23) (-19 dep 22nd)
JFK: 12 (12/23)
NYC:  13 (12/22.12/23)

 

Lowest minum of Jan (so far)

EWR: 19 (1/7)
NYC: 19  (1/7)
LGA: 20 (1/7)
JFK: 20 (1/7)

 

*  The period 1/21 - 1/27 could challenge all of these, will the metro sites get to the single digits?

[SACRUS]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1950: January 1950 was one of the worst winter months on record for Seattle, Washington, and surrounding areas. By the end of the month, Seattle measured 57.2 inches of snow, the most snowfall in any month since records began in 1894. The normal January snowfall is 1.4 inches. On this day, a crippling blizzard produced 40 to 50 mph winds and an astounding 20 inches. 

 

wtf Tony, how can Seattle get almost 5 feet of snow in one month? They average way less than we do, if Seattle can get that much in one month we should easily be able to get 100 inches in one month!

 

Kind of reminds me when they hit 109 degrees.

 

January 13, 1950. Near record one-day snowfall of 21.4 inches at SeaTac accompanied by 25-40 mile per hour winds. 57.2 inches fell the entire month at SeaTac. This storm claimed 13 lives in the Puget Sound area. The winter of 1949-50 was the coldest since official records began.

 

"What may have been Seattle's greatest snow of all was in 1880, before official record-keeping began. Arthur A. Denny, a city pioneer, wrote that the snow began on Jan. 8 and continued night and day for a week. When it finally stopped, Seattle's streets were smothered by 5 feet of snow, he said."

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Kind of reminds me when they hit 109 degrees.

 

January 13, 1950. Near record one-day snowfall of 21.4 inches at SeaTac accompanied by 25-40 mile per hour winds. 57.2 inches fell the entire month at SeaTac. This storm claimed 13 lives in the Puget Sound area. The winter of 1949-50 was the coldest since official records began.

 

"What may have been Seattle's greatest snow of all was in 1880, before official record-keeping began. Arthur A. Denny, a city pioneer, wrote that the snow began on Jan. 8 and continued night and day for a week. When it finally stopped, Seattle's streets were smothered by 5 feet of snow, he said."

wow that was our Blizzard of 1888 but even more extreme! Maybe Seattle got 100 inches of snow in that season (or maybe even in that month?)

I pay particular attention to your weather history column for the 1880s, so many deadly and extreme and surprise blizzards in that decade... what was going on that made the 1880s so extreme, Tony?

 

How many foot plus storms did Seattle get in January 1950?

[Brian5671]

35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The models are not showing a gradient pattern like they were once showing. Another suppressive pattern might be in the works after next week with alot of  cold air around .

 

At least the NAO and AO are rising.  The EPO keeps reloading which keeps the cold intact.

Gradient patterns favor Central NE north anyway.    Would not be surprised to see the drought continue however-other than about 6 weeks from mid Nov-Jan 1st it's been bone dry here.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Gradient patterns favor Central NE north anyway.    Would not be surprised to see the drought continue however-other than about 6 weeks from mid Nov-Jan 1st it's been bone dry here.

I foresee a very dry and very hot summer....

[Allsnow]

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The models are not showing a gradient pattern like they were once showing. Another suppressive pattern might be in the works after next week with alot of  cold air around .

 

At least the NAO and AO are rising.  The EPO keeps reloading which keeps the cold intact.

Too deep into the trough 

 

Hopefully we score this weekend as it will be another week of cold/dry 

[snowman19]

Gradient patterns favor Central NE north anyway.    Would not be surprised to see the drought continue however-other than about 6 weeks from mid Nov-Jan 1st it's been bone dry here.

QPF from late November till now has been well below average. We are still solidly in drought conditions. And it is absolutely possible that next week ends up suppressed with fast flow again. Since November, there has been a total lack of West Atlantic storm traffic to jam the flow up and slow it down, everything just races off the coast with no mechanism to bring it up here. “Contentweatherguy” has been spot on with this all winter long