Allsnow Posted Sunday at 01:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:56 PM 2 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Monthly Dep through the 1/3 of tjhe month (1/11) 12-13: will avg +5 to +8 14 - 16: back below - 5 to -8 17 - 19 : + avg 20 - 27 : look solidly below normal to solidify a colder than normal month 28 - 31 : may break near normal overall between colder / warmer split Dep thru 1/11 TTN: -3.2 NYC: -2.7 LGA: -2.4 EWR: -0.6 JFK: + 0.5 TTN quietly having a strong January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 01:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:56 PM 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: Monthly Dep through the 1/3 of tjhe month (1/11) 12-13: will avg +5 to +8 14 - 16: back below - 5 to -8 17 - 19 : + avg 20 - 27 : look solidly below normal to solidify a colder than normal month 28 - 31 : may break near normal overall between colder / warmer split Dep thru 1/11 TTN: -3.2 NYC: -2.7 LGA: -2.4 EWR: -0.6 JFK: + 0.5 lol no idea how JFK is warmer, is their *normal* colder to begin with Tony? what are the actual mean temperatures through the 11th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Sunday at 01:58 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:58 PM Just now, LibertyBell said: lol no idea how JFK is warmer, is their *normal* colder to begin with Tony? what are the actual mean temperatures through the 11th? Today: JFK : 39 / 26 (33) normal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 01:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:59 PM 15 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 33 / 20 (Christmas lights and decorations taking down weather). Low 40s today and tomorrow. Sharply colder Tue - Thu before the next 3 day warm up the end of this coming week and next weekend Fri - Sun. Dry week 12 - 18. The 19 - 21 watching the arctic front and any low on the boundary. Much colder 23 - 27th focus of the cold west into the GL, Midwest, south initially then looks to come east by the 26/27. Perhaps moderation to close the month 29-31. so only the last 3 days of the month will be milder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Sunday at 01:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:59 PM NYC Jan 12 - 13 , 1964 : 12.65 inches of snowfall with bitter cold / windy conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Sunday at 02:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:00 PM 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: so only the last 3 days of the month will be milder 12 - 13, 17 - 19 look above normal (daily) and perhaps the 29 or 30/31 - way out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Sunday at 02:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:02 PM 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: TTN quietly having a strong January PHL : -3.3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 02:05 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:05 PM Lakes starting to freeze over 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 02:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:10 PM 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Sunday at 02:13 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:13 PM Day light 9:H:31:M We have gained 16M and 30 seconds of light since the solstice, most of that on sunset. About 1 minute and 30 seconds more each day the next few days before jumping to 2 mins a day by the 28th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Sunday at 02:14 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:14 PM Still very cold into the Carolinas, WV. VA and back into the MIS valley (may not refresh) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Sunday at 02:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:17 PM 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Lakes starting to freeze over Ontario doesn’t freeze. Too deep. Michigan too. Thats why areas east of it like the TUG can see 400 inches easily while the Erie snow machine shuts down usually by now, same for the UP. Erie is shallow to it freezes the most often. Superior snd Huron rarely entirely freeze. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 02:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:18 PM Overnight models definitely squashing the se ridge with more of a dry/cold look ugh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Sunday at 02:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:18 PM More on the 1964 snowstorm https://www.weather.gov/rlx/jan64 The Blizzard of '64 (January 12-14, 1964) Widespread 10 to 15 inches of snow across Albany Forecast Area, with up to 30 inches in Catskills, and around 20 inches in southern Vermont and the Berkshires. 15.4 inches reported at Albany, NY making it one of the top 10 greatest snowstorms from January. Winds gusting 50 to 60 MPH caused near zero visibility and snow drifts of 3 to 8 feet were reported. Route 9 in Vermont was closed from Bennington to Brattleboro. Winds downed trees and powerlines in Massachusetts causing power outages. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 02:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:30 PM 16 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Day light 9:H:31:M We have gained 16M and 30 seconds of light since the solstice, most of that on sunset. About 1 minute and 30 seconds more each day the next few days before jumping to 2 mins a day by the 28th. sunrises have just started to get later too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 02:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:31 PM 20 minutes ago, Allsnow said: north america is such a weak ass continent, we need to get our cold air from asia/siberia because north america is simply too small Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted Sunday at 02:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:31 PM 19 minutes ago, Allsnow said: While the air mass that is likely to move into the Dakotas will likely be of Siberian origin, it is less clear whether the Siberian air will actually reach east of the Appalachians. Here's the latest Hysplit forecast for the NYC metro area: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 02:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:32 PM 12 minutes ago, SACRUS said: More on the 1964 snowstorm https://www.weather.gov/rlx/jan64 The Blizzard of '64 (January 12-14, 1964) Widespread 10 to 15 inches of snow across Albany Forecast Area, with up to 30 inches in Catskills, and around 20 inches in southern Vermont and the Berkshires. 15.4 inches reported at Albany, NY making it one of the top 10 greatest snowstorms from January. Winds gusting 50 to 60 MPH caused near zero visibility and snow drifts of 3 to 8 feet were reported. Route 9 in Vermont was closed from Bennington to Brattleboro. Winds downed trees and powerlines in Massachusetts causing power outages. Tony, it's rare for NYC to get double digit snow from a storm that dumps on Vermont and Albany like that too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted Sunday at 02:33 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:33 PM 13 minutes ago, SACRUS said: More on the 1964 snowstorm https://www.weather.gov/rlx/jan64 The Blizzard of '64 (January 12-14, 1964) Widespread 10 to 15 inches of snow across Albany Forecast Area, with up to 30 inches in Catskills, and around 20 inches in southern Vermont and the Berkshires. 15.4 inches reported at Albany, NY making it one of the top 10 greatest snowstorms from January. Winds gusting 50 to 60 MPH caused near zero visibility and snow drifts of 3 to 8 feet were reported. Route 9 in Vermont was closed from Bennington to Brattleboro. Winds downed trees and powerlines in Massachusetts causing power outages. And before the blizzard, December 31 1963-January 1, 1964 saw snow in the Deep South. Atlanta picked up 2.2" and Birmingham saw 8.4". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 02:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:34 PM Just now, donsutherland1 said: And before the blizzard, December 31 1963-January 1, 1964 saw snow in the Deep South. Atlanta picked up 2.2" and Birmingham saw 8.4". el nino Don? DJF all had major snowstorms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Sunday at 02:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:37 PM 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Enjoy the below normal weather of 20 years ago At least 20 years ago we also had a lot of snow to go with it Thinking we moderate a lot due to lack of snow not to mention temps have been over performing vs model forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted Sunday at 02:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:38 PM 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: el nino Don? DJF all had major snowstorms! Yes, 1963-64 was an El Niño winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 02:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:43 PM 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: At least 20 years ago we also had a lot of snow to go with it Thinking we moderate a lot due to lack of snow not to mention temps have been over performing vs model forecasts yes the 2000s were much snowier, but before that the 1980s were our least snowy decade. Snow goes in cycles (unlike temperature.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 02:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:46 PM 14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: While the air mass that is likely to move into the Dakotas will likely be of Siberian origin, it is less clear whether the Siberian air will actually reach east of the Appalachians. Here's the latest Hysplit forecast for the NYC metro area: I feel like the trend overnight was for more cold in the east with less southeast ridge but it’s still early 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 02:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:48 PM 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Buck.. .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 02:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:50 PM 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Buck.. .. Yup, that’s all it needed to see the precipitation dry up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 02:55 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:55 PM 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I feel like the trend overnight was for more cold in the east with less southeast ridge but it’s still early looks like cold and dry except on the boundary of the arctic cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted Sunday at 02:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:56 PM 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: It was nice to see the Raritan frozen over on my drive up 287 to my son’s youth basketball game. It’s worth driving out to Stockton or Frenchtown to see the Delaware. Looks like we have more cold coming, to prolong to the freeze-up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Sunday at 02:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:59 PM Will be interesting to see how much influence the mjo has in February and what if any factors counter the warm phases. We also have to factor in the delayed response. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Sunday at 03:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:04 PM Open question to the audience, if anybody knows, what is the catalyst for a negative EPO? It seems no matter what the phase is of the mjo, the negative EPO either stays or rebuilds immediately. I have heard the chicken or egg argument where it's either the -EPO warms the waters off the West Coast versus the warm Waters off the West Coast creates the negative EPO. Whatever it is, all year the EPO has been predominantly negative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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