January 2025

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

But for what reporting station?  Again, this whole forum doesn't revolve around EWR and the park.

And ultimately, the warmer minimums have been skewing the average to make it seem less impactful.  It's like when we have a ratter winter with a mega 25" storm, and people look back and say, well they hit near seasonal average, it couldn't have been that bad. The other half of the picture is that daily maximums have been running cold, and people tend to notice that more.

Like I said, we're not a frozen tundra, but if you spend any length of time working or being outside other than running from the car to the store, it's been cold, period.

The wind chill, yes, the temperature is arguably seasonal.  

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

how can anyone who was around in 2004 think this is cold 

Near zero temps with -20 Wind chills, low to mid teens for highs. Yeah this is springlike in comparison 

[RU848789]

Tell me the 18Z GFS Op is an outlier without telling me the GFS Op is an outlier, lol.  

 

 

[wdrag]

My 2c next 10 days: Tuesday-Wednesday. Windy and much colder with scattered flurries: A few small 1/2" dustings possible for the I84 corridor. Wind NOT AS STRONG as what occurred this past week.

Thursday PA-NJ-NYS-LI-CT: A period of flurries likely which will dust a few locations with minor amounts of less than 1/2". Primary target not yet known.

No change on the 19-22 thread,  most of the focus 20-21.  A reinforcing wind driven cold, equal or colder than what we've had this winter so far will follow here the 22nd-24th as per initial Bluewave note a day or so ago.

Will recheck late today. 

[Allsnow]

[Allsnow]

 

[EWR757]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That looks mighty cold.  If it verified, what are the surface temperatures?

[Dark Star]

9 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Near zero temps with -20 Wind chills, low to mid teens for highs. Yeah this is springlike in comparison 

I know NW Jersey is considered the icebox of the state, but for most of the population in this forum, the actual temperatures are considered seasonable...

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

But for what reporting station?  Again, this whole forum doesn't revolve around EWR and the park.

And ultimately, the warmer minimums have been skewing the average to make it seem less impactful.  It's like when we have a ratter winter with a mega 25" storm, and people look back and say, well they hit near seasonal average, it couldn't have been that bad. The other half of the picture is that daily maximums have been running cold, and people tend to notice that more.

Like I said, we're not a frozen tundra, but if you spend any length of time working or being outside other than running from the car to the store, it's been cold, period.

New Brunswick is +0.2 for January so far with the warmer minimums and cooler maximums.

 

Climatological Data for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - January 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	425	293	-	-	354	0	0.84	1.5	-
Average	38.6	26.6	32.6	0.2	-	-	-	-	0.3
Normal	40.8	24.0	32.4	-	359	0	1.35	2.5
2025-01-01	56	39	47.5	14.3	17	0	0.24	0.0	0
2025-01-02	49	35	42.0	9.0	23	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-01-03	44	30	37.0	4.1	28	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-01-04	38	28	33.0	0.3	32	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-01-05	34	25	29.5	-3.0	35	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-01-06	34	26	30.0	-2.4	35	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-01-07	30	18	24.0	-8.2	41	0	0.10	1.0	1
2025-01-08	34	23	28.5	-3.6	36	0	0.00	0.0	1
2025-01-09	31	20	25.5	-6.5	39	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-01-10	35	23	29.0	-2.8	36	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-01-11	40	26	33.0	1.3	32	0	0.50	0.5	1
2025-01-12	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-13	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-14	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-15	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-16	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-17	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-18	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-19	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-20	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-21	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-22	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-23	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-24	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-25	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-26	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-27	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-28	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-29	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-30	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
2025-01-31	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M

[Allsnow]

 

[Allsnow]

Looks like @bluewave and @qg_omega will get their cold next week 

[Volcanic Winter]

26 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I know NW Jersey is considered the icebox of the state, but for most of the population in this forum, the actual temperatures are considered seasonable...

The highs have been definitely solidly BN for most of us, the minimums have seemed to vary from NN to even AN. I think it’s the contrast to recent winters where we’re locked into upper 40’s and 50’s for weeks on end with only a 48-72 hour reprieve to normal or slightly BN temps that is making this so notable right now. I think it’s just a perspective thing and also the sharp contrast to previous winters, I’m most curious how February turns out because we had a similar month in Jan 22 only to go to a hard reversal in Feb. 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like @bluewave and @qg_omega will get their cold next week 

Could be the first single digits of the season for NYC as Canada finally loads up with Arctic air.

 

 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Could be the first single digits of the season for NYC as Canada finally loads up with Arctic air.

 

 

Looks like this has lots of stratosphere help. It will be nice to have Canada loaded with artic air going into a potentially mild Feb 

[donsutherland1]

The week ahead:

[donsutherland1]

45 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

That looks mighty cold.  If it verified, what are the surface temperatures?

The EPS has a low of 8° in NYC and 10° in EWR. Suburbs could be below zero. The 0z EPS was notably colder than the preceding 12z run. The GEFS is not quite as cold (mid-teens) and is similar to the preceding run of the EPS.

[SnoSki14]

19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like @bluewave and @qg_omega will get their cold next week 

Oh great even colder and dry conditions. Ugh this winter sucks 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Oh great even colder and dry conditions. Ugh this winter sucks 

Enjoy the below normal weather of 20 years ago 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, mattinpa said:

It’s cold but not arctic. The fact people are reacting so much shows the effect of climate change. People almost expect what’s above normal in winter. 

also this damned wind.

the wind is what increases my fuel costs and makes me feel cold not the actual temperature.

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Near zero temps with -20 Wind chills, low to mid teens for highs. Yeah this is springlike in comparison 

what about February 2015?

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Oh great even colder and dry conditions. Ugh this winter sucks 

vodka cold?

[ForestHillWx]

The Raritan is largely frozen near New Brunswick; it’s cold.

The monthly may be +0.2 due to the warmer few days to start the month, but candidly that snap shot does disservice to where we are at present.

Hopefully this next shot puts January solidly below; it deserves to be recorded that way. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, ForestHillWx said:

The Raritan is largely frozen near New Brunswick; it’s cold.

The monthly may be +0.2 due to the warmer few days to start the month, but candidly that snap shot does disservice to where we are at present.

Hopefully this next shot puts January solidly below; it deserves to be recorded that way. 

we have two really cold shots coming, this week and the week after.

[SACRUS]

 

33 / 20 (Christmas lights and decorations taking down weather).  Low 40s today and tomorrow.  Sharply colder Tue - Thu before the next 3 day warm up the end of this coming week and next weekend Fri - Sun.  Dry week  12 - 18.  The 19 - 21 watching the arctic front and any low on the boundary.   Much colder 23 - 27th  focus of the cold west into the GL, Midwest, south initially then looks to come east by the 26/27.  Perhaps moderation to close the month 29-31.

 

 

 

[the_other_guy]

38 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

The highs have been definitely solidly BN for most of us, the minimums have seemed to vary from NN to even AN. I think it’s the contrast to recent winters where we’re locked into upper 40’s and 50’s for weeks on end with only a 48-72 hour reprieve to normal or slightly BN temps that is making this so notable right now. I think it’s just a perspective thing and also the sharp contrast to previous winters, I’m most curious how February turns out because we had a similar month in Jan 22 only to go to a hard reversal in Feb. 

This! I dont know why we are debating this.

This is a much colder and standard winter pattern then we have seen since the super nino in 2015/16.

 

Simple facts…not really debatable.

Dec and Jan will be BN. Let’s see Feb and March

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

The Raritan is largely frozen near New Brunswick; it’s cold.

The monthly may be +0.2 due to the warmer few days to start the month, but candidly that snap shot does disservice to where we are at present.

Hopefully this next shot puts January solidly below; it deserves to be recorded that way. 

It was nice to see the Raritan frozen over on my drive up 287 to my son’s youth basketball game. 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 69 (2020)
NYC: 68 (2020)
LGA: 68 (2017)
JFK: 68 (2020)


Lows:

EWR: -1 (1981)
NYC: 2 (1981)
LGA: 1 (1981)
JFK: 3 (1968)

Historical:

 

1886: With a reading of 26 degrees below zero, Bowling Green, Kentucky, recorded its coldest temperature on record.

 

1888 - A sharp cold front swept southward from the Dakotas to Texas in just 24 hours spawning a severe blizzard over the Great Plains. More than 200 pioneers perished in the storm. Subzero temperatures and mountainous snow drifts killed tens of thousands of cattle. (David Ludlum)

 

1888: Children’s or Schoolhouse Blizzard occurred on this day. The blizzard killed 235 people, many of whom were children on their way home from school, across the Northern Plains. 

 

1890: A tornado touched down at St. Louis, Missouri, and crossed the Mississippi River, ending just south of Venice. The worst damage from this tornado occurred in St. Louis. Further east and northeast, one tornado in McLean County passed through downtown Cooksville, destroying at least a dozen buildings, while a tornado in Richland County destroyed four homes northeast of Olney. In all, over 100 homes and other buildings were unroofed or damaged. The storm caused four deaths and 15 injuries.

1912 - The morning low of 47 degrees below zero at Washta IA established a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1985 - A record snowstorm struck portions of western and south central Texas. The palm trees of San Antonio were blanketed with up to thirteen and a half inches of snow, more snow than was ever previously received in an entire winter season. (Weather Channel) (Storm Data)

1985: A record snowstorm struck portions of western and south-central Texas. All snowfall records dating back to 1885 were easily broken. Austin measured 3.6 inches, and Del Rio received 8.6 inches. San Antonio saw a record-setting 13.5 inches from this event.

1987 - Twenty-seven cities in the Upper Midwest reported new record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 72 degrees at Valentine NE and 76 degrees at Rapid City SD set records for the month of January. (National Weather Summary)

1988 - Parts of North Dakota finally got their first snow of the winter season, and it came with a fury as a blizzard raged across the north central U.S. Snowfall totals ranged up to 14 inches at Fargo ND, winds gusted to 65 mph at Windom MN, and wind chill readings in North Dakota reached 60 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A dozen cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 70s and 80s. Fort Myers FL reported a record high of 86 degrees. (National Weather Summary)

1990 - Gale force winds produce squalls with heavy snow in the Great Lakes Region. Totals in northwest Pennsylvania ranged up to eleven inches at Conneautville and Meadville. Barnes Corners, in western New York State, was buried under 27 inches of snow in two days. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 69 (2020)
NYC: 68 (2020)
LGA: 68 (2017)
JFK: 68 (2020)


Lows:

EWR: -1 (1981)
NYC: 2 (1981)
LGA: 1 (1981)
JFK: 3 (1968)

Historical:

 

1886: With a reading of 26 degrees below zero, Bowling Green, Kentucky, recorded its coldest temperature on record.

 

1888 - A sharp cold front swept southward from the Dakotas to Texas in just 24 hours spawning a severe blizzard over the Great Plains. More than 200 pioneers perished in the storm. Subzero temperatures and mountainous snow drifts killed tens of thousands of cattle. (David Ludlum)

 

1888: Children’s or Schoolhouse Blizzard occurred on this day. The blizzard killed 235 people, many of whom were children on their way home from school, across the Northern Plains. 

 

1890: A tornado touched down at St. Louis, Missouri, and crossed the Mississippi River, ending just south of Venice. The worst damage from this tornado occurred in St. Louis. Further east and northeast, one tornado in McLean County passed through downtown Cooksville, destroying at least a dozen buildings, while a tornado in Richland County destroyed four homes northeast of Olney. In all, over 100 homes and other buildings were unroofed or damaged. The storm caused four deaths and 15 injuries.

1912 - The morning low of 47 degrees below zero at Washta IA established a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1985 - A record snowstorm struck portions of western and south central Texas. The palm trees of San Antonio were blanketed with up to thirteen and a half inches of snow, more snow than was ever previously received in an entire winter season. (Weather Channel) (Storm Data)

1985: A record snowstorm struck portions of western and south-central Texas. All snowfall records dating back to 1885 were easily broken. Austin measured 3.6 inches, and Del Rio received 8.6 inches. San Antonio saw a record-setting 13.5 inches from this event.

1987 - Twenty-seven cities in the Upper Midwest reported new record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 72 degrees at Valentine NE and 76 degrees at Rapid City SD set records for the month of January. (National Weather Summary)

1988 - Parts of North Dakota finally got their first snow of the winter season, and it came with a fury as a blizzard raged across the north central U.S. Snowfall totals ranged up to 14 inches at Fargo ND, winds gusted to 65 mph at Windom MN, and wind chill readings in North Dakota reached 60 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A dozen cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 70s and 80s. Fort Myers FL reported a record high of 86 degrees. (National Weather Summary)

1990 - Gale force winds produce squalls with heavy snow in the Great Lakes Region. Totals in northwest Pennsylvania ranged up to eleven inches at Conneautville and Meadville. Barnes Corners, in western New York State, was buried under 27 inches of snow in two days. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

wow 1980-81 had multiple below zero arctic outbreaks?

I don't remember this one but I sure do remember Christmas morning 1980!

[SACRUS]

 

Monthly Dep through the 1/3 of tjhe month  (1/11)

12-13: will avg +5 to +8
14 - 16: back below - 5 to -8
17 - 19 : + avg
20 - 27 : look solidly below normal to solidify a colder than normal month
28 - 31 : may break near normal overall between colder / warmer split
 

Dep thru 1/11
 

TTN: -3.2
NYC: -2.7
LGA: -2.4
EWR:  -0.6
JFK: + 0.5

[SACRUS]

 

Fairly storng model alignment for Day 7 - 10

 

deep cold and arctic airmass initially into the central US and south before heading east beyond this period