January 2025

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It feels colder because of how warm its been but it would be AN when compared to 20+ years ago

I don’t know where you were living in the 90s, but this was cold then too. Let’s stop making it sound like New York in 1990 was frigid.

 

you got 20s at night. You got 30s in the day. you got January in NYC

[coastalplainsnowman]

5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

It wouldn't take much to outperform the 70s 80s and 90s with regards to average snowfall as all three decades were around 20 inches.

Agreed we will have a huge drop from the 2000s and the 2010s as they were historically high and snowfall and of course matched the 1955 through 1969 period.

All it takes is one higher than average snowfall season to greatly affect the decades average and we've already had one above average snowfall season. Look at the 1990s, if you take 95/96 and convert that to 28 inch average season, suddenly the average for that decade is extremely low. The point being is we have a few years left this decade and there's no reason at all to think we cannot get a major snowfall season. 

To your point about one higher than average season affecting the average, would you happen to have the median snowfall for each decade?  That would be really interesting to see.

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Did the 80s have a lot of la nina type winters is that why December and January were much colder than February?

 

There were two La Niña winters in 1970s and 1980s which had that type of La Niña seasonal progression. 75-76 and 83-84 had a colder winter departure through January 31st. But the much warmer February departure shifted the whole winter above average for the colder climate normals of that era. 

NYC 83-84 

Dec…-1.0

Jan…-1.9

Feb…+7.2

NYC 75-76

Dec…+0.4

Jan….-4.8

Feb….+6.5

 

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Can you match up the monthly temperature averages, for the 1970's and 1980's against the 2000's and 2010's? I'm curious how much colder the 1970-1989 period was compared to the much snowier period of 2000-2019 period.

a couple of things about 1980s Januarys.... they were very cold and very dry.  Februarys were much warmer.

We had several subzero arctic outbreaks in the 1980s which we have lacked since then, beginning with Christmas Day 1980, January 1982, January 1984, January 1985 and who can forget the historically cold December 1989?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

There were two La Niña winters in 1970s and 1980s which had that type of La Niña seasonal progression. 75-76 and 83-84 had a colder winter departure through January 31st. But the much warmer February departure shifted the whole winter above average for the colder climate normals of that era. 

NYC 83-84 

Dec…-1.0

Jan…-1.9

Feb…+7.2

NYC 75-76

Dec…+0.4

Jan….-4.8

Feb….+6.5

 

 

Right this is how I remember it in the 80s.  The Januarys averaged in the 20s and Februarys averaged near 40 lol.

1989-90 was like that too but displaced earlier by a month..... December was extremely cold and the warmth came in for January, February and March.

I think Don mentioned that December 1989 was Central Park's coldest month with less than 3.0 inches of snow.... was the same the case for JFK, Chris? I remember that JFK had a little more snowfall than Central Park did that month because we benefitted from clippers passing south of us.

 

[North and West]

Bottom line is you just need it cold enough like it is now.   -10/-20 departures in January are almost always dry.  The bad luck this year is a continuation of the drought that has plagued us since August.

.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Next time frame to watch for measurable snow as we pile it up this season January 19th-25th with a stalled out front to our south and cold high pressure to the north. CMC and European models show the potential with overrunning and stable waves of low pressure moving northeastward along the front to our south. We'll see if anything comes out of it.

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

On another note, most of the long range guidance seems to favor our moving into a warmer than normal pattern as February and March roll around. Is anyone seeing anything different than I am on this? In the actual pattern I do not see it happening but maybe after the Jan 19-25 time-frame the pattern could flip to warmer. I'll believe it when I see it.

WX/PT

[RU848789]

Really cool post by Tomer Burg on frequencies of DC-Boston megalopolis snowstorms of various sizes associated with Greenland Ridge decays (and afterwards) and other regime changes (including baseline no regime change).

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1878092022277636324

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Yeah last week was a total blowtorch...

It's one thing to say we're running near normal,  but to say "nothing close to actual cold" is just gaslighting.  What do you think, we live in the Yukon?

Not everyone lives in the heat island bubble either.

Last week's temperatures were 0.6 degrees below whatever is the current normal we are using.  However, when comparing to the 20 years before that one, we were actually slightly warmer than normal.  The wind however made if feel unbearably cold.

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

I don’t know where you were living in the 90s, but this was cold then too. Let’s stop making it sound like New York in 1990 was frigid.

 

you got 20s at night. You got 30s in the day. you got January in NYC

Exactly...that's seasonal, not frigid.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

To your point about one higher than average season affecting the average, would you happen to have the median snowfall for each decade?  That would be really interesting to see.

The monthly yearly snowfall for cpk can be found here.....

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Exactly...that's seasonal, not frigid.

Really the 1970s was frigid. The 80s were mixed as there were very very warm periods Mixed in and the 90s were warm.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

I don’t know where you were living in the 90s, but this was cold then too. Let’s stop making it sound like New York in 1990 was frigid.

 

you got 20s at night. You got 30s in the day. you got January in NYC

I bought a huge LL Bean down parka in the fall of 1990. I didn't need it til 94.....

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

On another note, most of the long range guidance seems to favor our moving into a warmer than normal pattern as February and March roll around. Is anyone seeing anything different than I am on this? In the actual pattern I do not see it happening but maybe after the Jan 19-25 time-frame the pattern could flip to warmer. I'll believe it when I see it.

WX/PT

I posted the long range Mjo plot a little while ago. What's odd is a short-term plot has us going into phase 2 and phase 3 within 15 days but the long-term plot seems to delay until mid-February. I believe the long range guidance (weeklies) keeps trying to default to a Nina pattern the same way 2019 2020 kept defaulting to a nino pattern and a great look that never materialized. 

 

[Eduardo]

22 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I bought a huge LL Bean down parka in the fall of 1990. I didn't need it til 94.....

Yeah I was just a kid, but IIRC, 93-94 and 95-96 were really the only cold 90s winters, no?  92-93 had the December and March storms, but isn’t remembered for being cold.

[JerseyWx]

44 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Last week's temperatures were 0.6 degrees below whatever is the current normal we are using.  However, when comparing to the 20 years before that one, we were actually slightly warmer than normal.  The wind however made if feel unbearably cold.

But for what reporting station?  Again, this whole forum doesn't revolve around EWR and the park.

And ultimately, the warmer minimums have been skewing the average to make it seem less impactful.  It's like when we have a ratter winter with a mega 25" storm, and people look back and say, well they hit near seasonal average, it couldn't have been that bad. The other half of the picture is that daily maximums have been running cold, and people tend to notice that more.

Like I said, we're not a frozen tundra, but if you spend any length of time working or being outside other than running from the car to the store, it's been cold, period.

[Stormlover74]

39 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Yeah I was just a kid, but IIRC, 93-94 and 95-96 were really the only cold 90s winters, no?  92-93 had the December and March storms, but isn’t remembered for being cold.

Second half of 92-93 was cold. It flipped in early February and stayed cold til April. Had around 25-30" during those 2 months

1993-94 was of course very cold yet most of the storms were not pure snowstorms. Only 1 or 2 didn't have mixing

[donsutherland1]

The storm that brought 2.1" of snow to Atlanta, its biggest snowstorm since January 16-17, 2018, also brought some light snow to the Northeast. Accumulations included:

Allentown: 0.6"
Atlantic City: 0.5"
Boston: 1.5"
Bridgeport: 1.2"
New York City: 0.5"
Newark: 0.5"
Philadelphia: 0.1"

Tomorrow and Monday will be fair and pleasant. Temperatures will top out in the upper 30s and lower 40s in New York City and Philadelphia. A cold front will then cross the region Monday night or early Tuesday morning, possibly with some snow flurries. In its wake, temperatures will again be below normal through at least Friday.

An extended period of generally below normal temperatures is underway in the New York City area. Although this cold regime will likely extend through at least the first three weeks of January, the kind of severe cold that produces minimum temperatures below 10° in the Philadelphia to New York City areas is unlikely during that period. The cold could still peak with readings dropping into the teens and several subfreezing highs.

The third week of January will likely feature a continuation of widespread cold anomalies in much of the eastern half of the CONUS and Canada south of the Hudson and James Bays. Those anomalies will likely result more from the prolonged nature of the cold than its severity. However, notable exceptions could be areas with fresh snow cover that experience strong radiational cooling. Moderation is possible during the closing week of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was -21.15 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.571 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 79% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.7° (3.0° below normal).

 

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, JerseyWx said:

But for what reporting station?  Again, this whole forum doesn't revolve around EWR and the park.

And ultimately, the warmer minimums have been skewing the average to make it seem less impactful.  It's like when we have a ratter winter with a mega 25" storm, and people look back and say, well they hit near seasonal average, it couldn't have been that bad. The other half of the picture is that daily maximums have been running cold, and people tend to notice that more.

Like I said, we're not a frozen tundra, but if you spend any length of time working or being outside other than running from the car to the store, it's been cold, period.

Islip, NY 0.0

Bridgeport, CT +0.1

Charlotteburg, NJ +0.4

White Plains, NY 0.0

 

But yea it's been cold.  Our normals are still cold bc it's winter.  It's near normal and it's January. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The storm that brought 2.1" of snow to Atlanta, its biggest snowstorm since January 16-17, 2018, also brought some light snow to the Northeast. Accumulations included:

Allentown: 0.6"
Atlantic City: 0.5"
Boston: 1.5"
Bridgeport: 1.2"
New York City: 0.5"
Newark: 0.5"
Philadelphia: 0.1"

Tomorrow and Monday will be fair and pleasant. Temperatures will top out in the upper 30s and lower 40s in New York City and Philadelphia. A cold front will then cross the region Monday night or early Tuesday morning, possibly with some snow flurries. In its wake, temperatures will again be below normal through at least Friday.

An extended period of generally below normal temperatures is underway in the New York City area. Although this cold regime will likely extend through at least the first three weeks of January, the kind of severe cold that produces minimum temperatures below 10° in the Philadelphia to New York City areas is unlikely during that period. The cold could still peak with readings dropping into the teens and several subfreezing highs.

The third week of January will likely feature a continuation of widespread cold anomalies in much of the eastern half of the CONUS and Canada south of the Hudson and James Bays. Those anomalies will likely result more from the prolonged nature of the cold than its severity. However, notable exceptions could be areas with fresh snow cover that experience strong radiational cooling. Moderation is possible during the closing week of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was -21.15 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.571 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 79% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.7° (3.0° below normal).

 

looks like our local airports were all around 0.5" too Don?

[forkyfork]

how can anyone who was around in 2004 think this is cold 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

how can anyone who was around in 2004 think this is cold 

in my book any month that averages under 32.0 has to be considered cold, but it's nothing extreme.  No lows in the single digits, so nothing out of the ordinary.

 

[psv88]

We get a normal January and people think it’s the ice age 

[donsutherland1]

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

looks like our local airports were all around 0.5" too Don?

JFK: 0.4”; LGA: 0.3”

[mattinpa]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

in my book any month that averages under 32.0 has to be considered cold, but it's nothing extreme.  No lows in the single digits, so nothing out of the ordinary.

 

It’s cold but not arctic. The fact people are reacting so much shows the effect of climate change. People almost expect what’s above normal in winter. 

[Allsnow]

Deep winter at DCA 

 

 

[nycwinter]

9 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

It’s cold but not arctic. The fact people are reacting so much shows the effect of climate change. People almost expect what’s above normal in winter. 

i remember as a kid back in the 1970's how real winter cold felt..

[Dan76]

Up hill both ways.

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Up hill both ways.

Barefoot backwards and naked