January 2025

[JerseyWx]

21 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It’s near normal, nothing close to actual cold weather so far

Yeah last week was a total blowtorch...

It's one thing to say we're running near normal,  but to say "nothing close to actual cold" is just gaslighting.  What do you think, we live in the Yukon?

Not everyone lives in the heat island bubble either.

[SnoSki14]

36 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Obviously not frigid but it’s still cold. Not historic but it’s the first winter we have had a long stretch of below avg temps. 
 

 

It feels colder because of how warm its been but it would be AN when compared to 20+ years ago

[hooralph]

This past week here in the city was brutal. Not the coldest temps we've seen this decade, but the relentless wind made it miserable.

[MJO812]

Nice cmc run

[MJO812]

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Let’s torch it! 
 

@bluewave when is your inferno p5 coming? I want a torch February 

Hopefully we can still pull off a snowstorm or two if we have a warm February. Last winter our area got lucky with the 2 snowstorms in one week in February. 

[kat5hurricane]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

 still waiting for the cold pattern, we are only running slightly below normal….

Slightly below normal in winter is indeed....cold fyi

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

That’s the point. Even in the 1970s and 1980s the NYC decadal average snowfall got close to or above 20”. The 19-20 to 23-24 new 2020s average so far in NYC is only 14.2”. So NYC will need a big increase the remainder of this season through 2029 to avoid the least snowiest decade on record. Let’s hope the BM KU storm track comes to life in a very big way. Since we don’t have a cold enough climate anymore to get near and into the 20s for seasonal snowfall with a bunch of small to moderate events like numerous years prior to the 1990s.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	T	2.6	4.4	7.1	0.1	T	14.2
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	2.3	5.2	T	0.0	7.5
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	T	2.2	0.1	0.0	2.3
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	15.3	2.0	0.4	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	10.5	2.1	26.0	T	0.0	38.6
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	2.5	2.3	T	T	T	4.8

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	0.1	2.3	7.9	5.4	3.0	1.0	19.7
1988-1989	0.0	0.0	0.3	5.0	0.3	2.5	0.0	8.1
1987-1988	0.0	1.1	2.6	13.9	1.5	T	0.0	19.1
1986-1987	0.0	T	0.6	13.6	7.0	1.9	0.0	23.1
1985-1986	0.0	T	0.9	2.2	9.9	T	T	13.0
1984-1985	0.0	T	5.5	8.4	10.0	0.2	T	24.1
1983-1984	0.0	T	1.6	11.7	0.2	11.9	0.0	25.4
1982-1983	0.0	0.0	3.0	1.9	21.5	T	0.8	27.2
1981-1982	0.0	0.0	2.1	11.8	0.4	0.7	9.6	24.6
1980-1981	0.0	T	2.8	8.0	T	8.6	0.0	19.4
1979-1980	T	0.0	3.5	2.0	2.7	4.6	T	12.8

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	0.3	2.0	8.0	9.9	2.3	0.1	22.5
1978-1979	0.0	2.2	0.5	6.6	20.1	T	T	29.4
1977-1978	0.0	0.2	0.4	20.3	23.0	6.8	T	50.7
1976-1977	0.0	T	5.1	13.0	5.8	0.6	T	24.5
1975-1976	0.0	T	2.3	5.6	5.0	4.4	T	17.3
1974-1975	0.0	0.1	0.1	2.0	10.6	0.3	T	13.1
1973-1974	0.0	0.0	2.8	7.8	9.4	3.2	0.3	23.5
1972-1973	T	T	T	1.8	0.8	0.2	T	2.8
1971-1972	0.0	T	T	2.8	17.8	2.3	T	22.9
1970-1971	0.0	0.0	2.4	11.4	T	1.3	0.4	15.5
1969-1970	0.0	T	6.8	8.4	6.4	4.0	T	25.6

From those charts, we have the following sets of 5 year averages:

19-20 to 23-24: 14.2"

69-70 to 73-74: 15.5"

84-85 to 88-89: 15.5"

The most recent 5-year period is 8% less snowfall than similar 5-year periods in the 70s and 80s.  Another way to put it is that the total 5-year relative deficit is about 6.5", or one marginally warning-level snowstorm. 

It shouldn't be that much more difficult to get to a 10-year 20" average than it was in the other two decades.  It should be noted that both of those decades had KUs.

 

 

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice cmc run

GFS looked interesting as well. Long range for late January has potential. The light snow events have been nice, but we really need a more significant event. 

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It feels colder because of how warm its been but it would be AN when compared to 20+ years ago

Okay.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

If we use just decadal averages, the 70s and 80s were our least snowiest decades with the 80s averaging less than 20 inches of snow!

If we use the least snowiest 10 year period, who comes in first? The period from 1983-84 through 1992-93?

 

Surprisingly in Central Park, the period Jan 1968-Dec 1977 is the lowest 10 year period at 18.7 inches. Barely beating out Jan 1983-Dec 1992 at 18.8 inches.

If you go by seasonal 10 year periods, July 1 through June 30 the results might differ slightly.

Of course the golden 10 year period was Jan 2009 through December 2018 which averaged 38.6 inches of snow in the Park.

[kat5hurricane]

55 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

This winter has been ok so far. It has been colder than normal and some snow and a white Christmas for some.All thats missing so far is the big snowstorm..This winter reminds me of winters in the 70s and 80s especially with the cold.

Yep, winter has been fine thus far. I don't get all the complaining. It could have been better considering the colder pattern but beggars can't be choosers and we are beggars after 3 out of 4 dud winters.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It feels colder because of how warm its been but it would be AN when compared to 20+ years ago

Yeah, only a small cold departure so far this winter against the very warm new 91-20 normals. The very strong winds have made it feel much colder. Plus it was so warm the last few winters that this step down feels much colder than it actually has been. 
 

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said:

From those charts, we have the following sets of 5 year averages:

19-20 to 23-24: 14.2"

69-70 to 73-74: 15.5"

84-85 to 88-89: 15.5"

The most recent 5-year period is 8% less snowfall than similar 5-year periods in the 70s and 80s.  Another way to put it is that the total 5-year relative deficit is about 6.5", or one marginally warning-level snowstorm. 

It shouldn't be that much more difficult to get to a 10-year 20" average than it was in the other two decades.  It should be noted that both of those decades had KUs.

 

 

Exactly.  I go back to DarkStar's cold/moisture/luck triangle again.  We always need things to come together just right anyway.  It's like when there's news that eating a certain food increases your chance of getting disease X by 10%.  Ok, but the actual odds only went from 1:10,000 to 1:9,000.  In other words it's unlikely to happen regardless.  And the average temperature in the 2000s and 2010s, when we had a bounty of storms big and small, was higher than in the 80s.

I guess I just wanted to take your very succinct, well-stated point and restate it in a convoluted and probably error-filled way.

[cleetussnow]

Lots of debate about what cold is?  This winter sucks.

[winterwx21]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, only a small cold departure so far this winter against the very warm new 91-20 normals. The very strong winds have made it feel much colder. Plus it was so warm the last few winters that this step down feels much colder than it actually has been. 
 

 

The departure for January should increase though with the cold coming next week and in the long range. Don Sutherland's latest estimate is that January will finish 3 degrees below normal. 

[MJO812]

Euro is similiar to the cmc with waves along the front . Looks nice

 

[mattinpa]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is similiar to the cmc with waves along the front . Looks nice

 

Hoping it and the CMC are right. Cold without any snow is wasted, but it’s not even the mid point of January yet. Still could be lots of opportunity. 

[Brian5671]

30 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Lots of debate about what cold is?  This winter sucks.

Bottom line is you just need it cold enough like it is now.   -10/-20 departures in January are almost always dry.  The bad luck this year is a continuation of the drought that has plagued us since August.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

From those charts, we have the following sets of 5 year averages:

19-20 to 23-24: 14.2"

69-70 to 73-74: 15.5"

84-85 to 88-89: 15.5"

The most recent 5-year period is 8% less snowfall than similar 5-year periods in the 70s and 80s.  Another way to put it is that the total 5-year relative deficit is about 6.5", or one marginally warning-level snowstorm. 

It shouldn't be that much more difficult to get to a 10-year 20" average than it was in the other two decades.  It should be noted that both of those decades had KUs.

 

 

My point is that it will require a shift to BM KU snowstorm tracks again from now through 2029 for NYC to finish the 2020s with over 20” of snowfall. The faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet since 2018-2019 plus the much warmer winters over this period have combined to the lower the NYC average to 14.2” so far. 

In a rapidly warming climate there are fewer ways for NYC to reach average to above average seasonal snowfall into the 20s range. KU benchmark snowstorms were the main contributor to the normal to above average seasons in NYC since 1994. Prior to 1994 NYC had a wider variety of was to achieve normal to above normal snowfall. There were many fewer KU events from the 50s  through early 90s. The winters were cold enough back then to make it closer to average with a number of small to moderate events. But with the warming climate, the temperatures have become too marginal at times for smaller to moderate events to get us closer to seasonal averages with so many changeovers to rain. 

So the 60s through early 90s were cold enough to not have to exclusively rely on high end KU BM snowstorms in order to have a snowfall season closer to average. 2010-2018 was an extreme outlier in the modern climate record for NESIS KU snowstorms. So the higher snowfall totals from bigger events masked the long term warming trend.

Plus NYC hasn’t had a winter near 32° average since 14-15. These very cold winters occurred at regular intervals up through that winter going back to the 60s. So many of the lower 5 year periods you mentioned could count on these very cold intervals to help boost the snowfall back up after slow stretches.

So It’s less likely in a warming climate that NYC will have the same number of colder winters near 32° that they had in previous decades. Plus without that cold the burden for average to above average snowfall will fall almost exclusively on BM KU snowstorms. But in order to get back to that we need to see a relaxation of the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet which has limited benchmark storm tracks since 18-19. 

While it’s possible that this faster Pacific Jet pattern may diminish in the coming years, we still may not get back to the volume of KU events enjoyed from 2010 to 2018. All we can say for sure is that this Pacific Jet regime has coincided with an unprecedented increase in Pacific Basin marine heatwaves. Whether these continuing marine heatwaves result in this jet pattern continuing for the remainder of the 2020s also remains to be seen. 
 

 

[MJO812]

[NorthShoreWx]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My point is that it will require a shift to BM KU snowstorm tracks again from now through 2029 for NYC to finish the 2020s with over 20” of snowfall. The faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet since 2018-2019 plus the much warmer winters over this period have combined to the lower the NYC average to 14.2” so far. 

In a rapidly warming climate there are fewer ways for NYC to reach average to above average seasonal snowfall into the 20s range. KU benchmark snowstorms were the main contributor to the normal to above average seasons in NYC since 1994. Prior to 1994 NYC had a wider variety of was to achieve normal to above normal snowfall. There were many fewer KU events from the 50s  through early 90s. The winters were cold enough back then to make it closer to average with a number of small to moderate events. But with the warming climate, the temperatures have become too marginal at times for smaller to moderate events to get us closer to seasonal averages with so many changeovers to rain. 

So the 60s through early 90s were cold enough to not have to exclusively rely on high end KU BM snowstorms in order to have a snowfall season closer to average. 2010-2018 was an extreme outlier in the modern climate record for NESIS KU snowstorms. So the higher snowfall totals from bigger events masked the long term warming trend.

Plus NYC hasn’t had a winter near 32° average since 14-15. These very cold winters occurred at regular intervals up through that winter going back to the 60s. So many of the lower 5 year periods you mentioned could count on these very cold intervals to help boost the snowfall back up after slow stretches.

So It’s less likely in a warming climate that NYC will have the same number of colder winters near 32° that they had in previous decades. Plus without that cold the burden for average to above average snowfall will fall almost exclusively on BM KU snowstorms. But in order to get back to that we need to see a relaxation of the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet which has limited benchmark storm tracks since 18-19. 

While it’s possible that this faster Pacific Jet pattern may diminish in the coming years, we still may not get back to the volume of KU events enjoyed from 2010 to 2018. All we can say for sure is that this Pacific Jet regime has coincided with an unprecedented increase in Pacific Basin marine heatwaves. Whether these continuing marine heatwaves result in this jet pattern continuing for the remainder of the 2020s also remains to be seen. 
 

 

Average snowfall at CP for the period 1959-1960 through 1968-1969 was 32.0".  KU's accounted for 115" of snowfall over the decade.  The average snowfall excluding from KU storms was 20.5" during the 60's.  

If we get closer to normal by the end of the decade, KUs will need to play a role, but that isn't new.

[EastonSN+]

Perhaps we do not reach phase 3 until mid-February? 

[donsutherland1]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My point is that it will require a shift to BM KU snowstorm tracks again from now through 2029 for NYC to finish the 2020s with over 20” of snowfall. The faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet since 2018-2019 plus the much warmer winters over this period have combined to the lower the NYC average to 14.2” so far. 

In a rapidly warming climate there are fewer ways for NYC to reach average to above average seasonal snowfall into the 20s range. KU benchmark snowstorms were the main contributor to the normal to above average seasons in NYC since 1994. Prior to 1994 NYC had a wider variety of was to achieve normal to above normal snowfall. There were many fewer KU events from the 50s  through early 90s. The winters were cold enough back then to make it closer to average with a number of small to moderate events. But with the warming climate, the temperatures have become too marginal at times for smaller to moderate events to get us closer to seasonal averages with so many changeovers to rain. 

So the 60s through early 90s were cold enough to not have to exclusively rely on high end KU BM snowstorms in order to have a snowfall season closer to average. 2010-2018 was an extreme outlier in the modern climate record for NESIS KU snowstorms. So the higher snowfall totals from bigger events masked the long term warming trend.

Plus NYC hasn’t had a winter near 32° average since 14-15. These very cold winters occurred at regular intervals up through that winter going back to the 60s. So many of the lower 5 year periods you mentioned could count on these very cold intervals to help boost the snowfall back up after slow stretches.

So It’s less likely in a warming climate that NYC will have the same number of colder winters near 32° that they had in previous decades. Plus without that cold the burden for average to above average snowfall will fall almost exclusively on BM KU snowstorms. But in order to get back to that we need to see a relaxation of the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet which has limited benchmark storm tracks since 18-19. 

While it’s possible that this faster Pacific Jet pattern may diminish in the coming years, we still may not get back to the volume of KU events enjoyed from 2010 to 2018. All we can say for sure is that this Pacific Jet regime has coincided with an unprecedented increase in Pacific Basin marine heatwaves. Whether these continuing marine heatwaves result in this jet pattern continuing for the remainder of the 2020s also remains to be seen. 
 

 

One sees the importance of bigger storms in Washington, DC where a warmer climate has reduced seasonal snowfall. For the 1999-00 through 2024-25 (through 1/10) period, days on which 4" or more snow fell accounted for 44% of seasonal snowfall. During 1999-00 through 2008-09, that figure was 31%. Since 2009-10, it has averaged 51%.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

The departure for January should increase though with the cold coming next week and in the long range. Don Sutherland's latest estimate is that January will finish 3 degrees below normal. 

How cold we get during the January 20th to 27th window will probably determine whether we see our first colder than average winter in the last 10 years. Since we want to be able to build up a large enough colder departure that’s able withstand the typical warmer La Niña February climatology. Several La Niña winters which were colder through January shifted warmer based on February. Plus it will be interesting to see if the much warmer 91-20 climatology plays a role. Since it’s technically possible to get a colder winter based on 91-20 but not 81-10 or 71-00 normals. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Surprisingly in Central Park, the period Jan 1968-Dec 1977 is the lowest 10 year period at 18.7 inches. Barely beating out Jan 1983-Dec 1992 at 18.8 inches.

If you go by seasonal 10 year periods, July 1 through June 30 the results might differ slightly.

Of course the golden 10 year period was Jan 2009 through December 2018 which averaged 38.6 inches of snow in the Park.

We just barely missed out on averaging 30.0 inches over a 30 year period =\ it's close enough that the snowfall measurements at the park might have made up the difference had they been made on time and accurately.

 

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

How cold we get during the January 20th to 27th window will probably determine whether we see our first colder than average winter in the last 10 years. Since we want to be able to build up a large enough colder departure that’s able withstand the typical warmer La Niña February climatology. Several La Niña winters which were colder through January shifted warmer based on February. Plus it will be interesting to see if the much warmer 91-20 climatology plays a role. Since it’s technically possible to get a colder winter based on 91-20 but not 81-10 or 71-00 normals. 

Did the 80s have a lot of la nina type winters is that why December and January were much colder than February?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

My point is that it will require a shift to BM KU snowstorm tracks again from now through 2029 for NYC to finish the 2020s with over 20” of snowfall. The faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet since 2018-2019 plus the much warmer winters over this period have combined to the lower the NYC average to 14.2” so far. 

In a rapidly warming climate there are fewer ways for NYC to reach average to above average seasonal snowfall into the 20s range. KU benchmark snowstorms were the main contributor to the normal to above average seasons in NYC since 1994. Prior to 1994 NYC had a wider variety of was to achieve normal to above normal snowfall. There were many fewer KU events from the 50s  through early 90s. The winters were cold enough back then to make it closer to average with a number of small to moderate events. But with the warming climate, the temperatures have become too marginal at times for smaller to moderate events to get us closer to seasonal averages with so many changeovers to rain. 

So the 60s through early 90s were cold enough to not have to exclusively rely on high end KU BM snowstorms in order to have a snowfall season closer to average. 2010-2018 was an extreme outlier in the modern climate record for NESIS KU snowstorms. So the higher snowfall totals from bigger events masked the long term warming trend.

Plus NYC hasn’t had a winter near 32° average since 14-15. These very cold winters occurred at regular intervals up through that winter going back to the 60s. So many of the lower 5 year periods you mentioned could count on these very cold intervals to help boost the snowfall back up after slow stretches.

So It’s less likely in a warming climate that NYC will have the same number of colder winters near 32° that they had in previous decades. Plus without that cold the burden for average to above average snowfall will fall almost exclusively on BM KU snowstorms. But in order to get back to that we need to see a relaxation of the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet which has limited benchmark storm tracks since 18-19. 

While it’s possible that this faster Pacific Jet pattern may diminish in the coming years, we still may not get back to the volume of KU events enjoyed from 2010 to 2018. All we can say for sure is that this Pacific Jet regime has coincided with an unprecedented increase in Pacific Basin marine heatwaves. Whether these continuing marine heatwaves result in this jet pattern continuing for the remainder of the 2020s also remains to be seen. 
 

 

I have a different question.... granted CC is making our snowfall more extreme (either a lot or not much).... but how is CC causing all this abnormal snowfall way south where it doesn't normally ever snow? We had another year in this decade where Texas was completely frozen and there was widespread snow in the Deep South too.  It can't be that our snowfall is going down but the snowfall in the Deep South is going up?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Bottom line is you just need it cold enough like it is now.   -10/-20 departures in January are almost always dry.  The bad luck this year is a continuation of the drought that has plagued us since August.

yup, the dry pattern had a few short breaks but never really went away.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Exactly.  I go back to DarkStar's cold/moisture/luck triangle again.  We always need things to come together just right anyway.  It's like when there's news that eating a certain food increases your chance of getting disease X by 10%.  Ok, but the actual odds only went from 1:10,000 to 1:9,000.  In other words it's unlikely to happen regardless.  And the average temperature in the 2000s and 2010s, when we had a bounty of storms big and small, was higher than in the 80s.

I guess I just wanted to take your very succinct, well-stated point and restate it in a convoluted and probably error-filled way.

it's always a factor of time too, after so many years, the odds stack up and eventually it happens.  The same thing with diseases caused by certain unhealthy food too (and it's usually more than 10%, more like 30-50%.)

My sister's doctor just told her to quit drinking diet soda (which she has been drinking for 20+ years).... he told her it may be the reason she now has stage 3A kidney disease.

He told her to quit both diet soda and advil for this reason.

This famous 30 year study bears him out.

https://www.kidney.org/news-stories/say-no-to-diet-soda