January 2025

[TJW014]

Snow, sand and Sea collide at the shore.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Yes, but 5 years of data is not necessarily indicative of some sort of climate shift.  The previous 3 March's (including one April snow) I got 11.8", 26.2" and 10.5".  

The significance is that March 2020 to 2024 was the first 5 year period with under 1” in NYC. So it has been tough to count on March for a big event this decade. Sure it’s possible we’ll eventually see some bigger Marches. But you probably want to build up a big enough snowfall surplus before March in case we see another March with well below average snow. Since relying on a big March to get near 25” is probably less likely without a snowy enough season before we get to March. 

The general topic of climate shifts is an interesting one. Since climate shifts usually happen without notice and only become obvious after a period of time has past. 

The major snowfall climate shift in NYC to ISP occurred after 1993. So we have had over 30 years of observations to confirm. NYC and ISP snowfall climatology has shifted to an all or nothing pattern over the last 30 years. Only 3 seasons in NYC have been close to the long term average of 25”. All the other seasons have experienced a larger deviation of plus or minus snowfall departures from this long term median. 

The previous 30 year period from the early 60s to early 90s was much colder and stable. So 12 seasons finished within about 5” inches of the 25” average. Many fewer seasons with a larger deviation above or below this average. We had a larger number of ways to get to a near average season. Since there were several seasons getting close to 25” with a bunch of smaller to moderate events.

The other thing which has occurred is that a KU snowstorm has become a prerequisite for seasonal average snowfall from around NYC to ISP. In the much colder era we could get to average seasonal snowfall at times without the aid of a larger regional KU event dumping 12”+ maxes within about a 50 to 75 mile radius of NYC. 2010 to 2018 experienced the largest concentration of NESIS snowstorms in the modern climate record. 

So since the early 90s we have experienced fewer ways to get an average snowfall  season in the 20s from NYC to ISP. And more ways to get well above or well below average snowfall. The 2020s average in NYC so far is only 14.2” through the halfway mark so far through 5 full seasons. This suggests that the only way NYC will finish this decade above 20” is for a significant increase in KU events from this winter into the following 4 remaining. If we continue with the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks pattern which has been in effect since December 2018, then this will be the least snowiest decade in NYC and surrounding areas history. So we need an increase in benchmark KU storm tracks as soon as possible in order to get back to average to above average snow this decade. 
 

[North and West]

My fuel bill was always around $1,000 per month.  With pellets I cut it in half (ish.)  I still burn SOME oil.  Pellets were a lot cheaper 10 yrs ago when oil was still high, so I don't save as much.  

$1,000?!? Are you keeping at 80°?


.

[SnoSki14]

We're going to see a historic drop in average snowfall for this decade across the entire Northeast. 

This pattern is stuck and ain't changing. A 20" average collapse is crazy. 

[bluewave]

The delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay, clouds, lower pressures, stronger winds, and warmer lakes with less ice have kept the minimum temperature departures significantly higher than the maxes this month so far in the Northeast.

[qg_omega]

Looks like another 15 days of nothing, time to start the February thread

[SACRUS]

 

28 / 23 off a low of 24 and a dusting of snow as the southern storm that coulda been slides east.  Stuck in the mid 30s today before a warmer Sun - Tue (above normal).  Much colder Wed - Fri before colder than normal by the 19th.  Dry week ahead before a more active period by the 19th.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 70 (2020)
NYC: 69 (2020)
LGA: 66 (2020)
JFK: 59 (1975)

 

Lows:


EWR: -2 (1982)
NYC: 3 (1968)
LGA: 4 (1982)
JFK: 5 (1982)

 

Historical:

 

1898: An estimated F4 tornado struck the city of Fort Smith, Arkansas, just before midnight. The tornado, which touched down about 100 miles southwest of town, killed 55 people and injured 113 others along its track. 

1918 - A tremendous blizzard completely immobilized the Midwest, stopping mail service for two weeks. The vast storm then moved through the Great Lakes Region and the Ohio Valley. Winds reached 60 mph at Toledo OH, and the temperature plunged from 28 above to 15 below zero during passage of the cold front. (David Ludlum)

1918: A powerful area of low pressure brought snow and bitterly cold temperatures to Chattanooga, Little Rock, and Shreveport. Birmingham, Alabama, picked up an inch of snow. In far southeastern Alabama, an estimated F3 tornado virtually damaged every building in the town of Webb. The tornado leveled one rural school, killing one teacher and seven students. Please note, the date on the historical marker is an error. January 10th in 1918 was a Thursday.
 

1963: An F2 tornado was reported in Scott County, Indiana, north of Louisville, Kentucky. It was on the ground for 5 miles north of Scottsburg and damaged or destroyed several homes and barns.

1972 - Downslope winds hit the eastern slopes of the Rockies in northern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming. Boulder CO reported wind gusts to 143 mph and twenty-five million dollars property damage. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A storm in the northeastern U.S. buried the mountains of central Vermont with up to 26 inches of snow, and snowfall totals in Maine ranged up to 27 inches at Telos Lake. Winds gusted to 45 mph at Newark NJ and Albany NY. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Snow and high winds in Utah resulted in a fifty car pile-up along Interstate 15. Winds in Wyoming gusted to 115 mph at Rendezvous Peak. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A cold front which the previous day produced 21 inches of snow at Stampede Pass WA and wind gusts to 75 mph at Mammoth Lakes CA, spread snow across Colorado. Totals in Colorado ranged up to 17 inches at Steamboat Springs. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Strong northwesterly winds associated with a deep low pressure system crossing the Upper Great Lakes Region ushered cold air into the central U.S. Winds gusted to 72 mph at Fort Dodge IA, and wind gusts reached 75 mph at Yankton SD. Snow and high winds created blizzard conditions in northwestern Minnesota. Squalls produced heavy snow in parts of Upper Michigan and northern Lower Michigan, with 16 inches reported at Wakefield. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2008 - Iraqis in Baghdad woke up to the novelty of falling snowflakes as the city experienced its first snowfall in about 100 years. (NCDC)

 

2010: Bitter cold temperatures gripped central and southern Florida with lows in the teens and 30s.

[SACRUS]

 

NYC:

Jan 11, 1991 : 5.6 inches of snow before a changeover to rain.

Jan 11, 1997 : 3.5 inches of snowfall.

Jan 11 - 12, 2011 : 9.1 inches of snowfall.

[SACRUS]

23 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

old period daily dep:

 

 

Cold period -8 the coldest daily departures of the period.  Could see that matched on Wed or Thu of this coming week.

Jan 4

EWR: 36 / 28 (-2)
NYC: 33 / 28 (-4)
LGA: 34 / 29 (-4)
JFK: 37 / 30 (0 E)

 

--------------------------------------------------

Jan 5:

EWR: 36 / 28 (-2)
NYC: 33 / 28 (-4)
LGA: 34 / 28 (-4)
JFK: 37 / 29 (-1)

-

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jan 6:

EWR:   31 / 22 (-6)
NYC: 30 / 22 (-8)
LGA:  33 / 23 (-7)
JFK: 33 / 24 (-5)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Jan 7

EWR: 35 / 19 (-6)
NYC: 33 / 19 (-8)
LGA: 34 / 20 (-8)
JFK: 36 / 20 (-6)

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jan 8

EWR: 32 / 22 (-6)
NYC: 30 / 23 (-7)
LGA: 31 / 24 (-7)
JFK: 33 / 24 (-4)

----------------------------

 

Jan 9

 

EWR: 36 / 22 (-4)
NYC: 33 / 22 (-6)
LGA: 34 / 24 (-6)
JFK: 37 / 24 (-2)

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Jan 10  only a below daily mean for NYC

EWR: 42  / 27 (+2)
NYC: 39 / 27 (-1)
LGA: 41 / 28 (0)
JFK: 44 / 29 (+4)

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The significance is that March 2020 to 2024 was the first 5 year period with under 1” in NYC. So it has been tough to count on March for a big event this decade. Sure it’s possible we’ll eventually see some bigger Marches. But you probably want to build up a big enough snowfall surplus before March in case we see another March with well below average snow. Since relying on a big March to get near 25” is probably less likely without a snowy enough season before we get to March. 

The general topic of climate shifts is an interesting one. Since climate shifts usually happen without notice and only become obvious after a period of time has past. 

The major snowfall climate shift in NYC to ISP occurred after 1993. So we have had over 30 years of observations to confirm. NYC and ISP snowfall climatology has shifted to an all or nothing pattern over the last 30 years. Only 3 seasons in NYC have been close to the long term average of 25”. All the other seasons have experienced a larger deviation of plus or minus snowfall departures from this long term median. 

The previous 30 year period from the early 60s to early 90s was much colder and stable. So 12 seasons finished within about 5” inches of the 25” average. Many fewer seasons with a larger deviation above or below this average. We had a larger number of ways to get to a near average season. Since there were several seasons getting close to 25” with a bunch of smaller to moderate events.

The other thing which has occurred is that a KU snowstorm has become a prerequisite for seasonal average snowfall from around NYC to ISP. In the much colder era we could get to average seasonal snowfall at times without the aid of a larger regional KU event dumping 12”+ maxes within about a 50 to 75 mile radius of NYC. 2010 to 2018 experienced the largest concentration of NESIS snowstorms in the modern climate record. 

So since the early 90s we have experienced fewer ways to get an average snowfall  season in the 20s from NYC to ISP. And more ways to get well above or well below average snowfall. The 2020s average in NYC so far is only 14.2” through the halfway mark so far through 5 full seasons. This suggests that the only way NYC will finish this decade above 20” is for a significant increase in KU events from this winter into the following 4 remaining. If we continue with the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks pattern which has been in effect since December 2018, then this will be the least snowiest decade in NYC and surrounding areas history. So we need an increase in benchmark KU storm tracks as soon as possible in order to get back to average to above average snow this decade. 
 

Curious why you use 25 inches as the average for NYC? The 30 year average 1991-2020 is 29.8 inches. Even if you use the historical average (1870-2024) which includes two of the least snowiest winters in recorded history, 22/23 & 23/24, the average is 28.5 inches. Are you using an average outside those date ranges?

[Allsnow]

 

[Allsnow]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay, clouds, lower pressures, stronger winds, and warmer lakes with less ice have kept the minimum temperature departures significantly higher than the maxes this month so far in the Northeast.

All the cold air is going around the block 

[Stormlover74]

20 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

NYC:

Jan 11, 1991 : 5.6 inches of snow before a changeover to rain.

Jan 11, 1997 : 3.5 inches of snowfall.

Jan 11 - 12, 2011 : 9.1 inches of snowfall.

I believe 97 was that surprise snowfall where not much was forecast and I remember watching the radar late at night and it just kept going until we got 3 to 4" by morning

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

We're going to see a historic drop in average snowfall for this decade across the entire Northeast. 

This pattern is stuck and ain't changing. A 20" average collapse is crazy. 

It wouldn't take much to outperform the 70s 80s and 90s with regards to average snowfall as all three decades were around 20 inches.

Agreed we will have a huge drop from the 2000s and the 2010s as they were historically high and snowfall and of course matched the 1955 through 1969 period.

All it takes is one higher than average snowfall season to greatly affect the decades average and we've already had one above average snowfall season. Look at the 1990s, if you take 95/96 and convert that to 28 inch average season, suddenly the average for that decade is extremely low. The point being is we have a few years left this decade and there's no reason at all to think we cannot get a major snowfall season. 

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS is correcting sharper with the -PNA trough in the Western US as we approach the 20th. Also more of a Southeast Ridge now than previous runs and trough digging into the Baja. Gradients usually favor the more interior areas for frozen precipitation. Since we often see a stronger Southeast Ridge than forecast once within 168 hrs. But it will still be a window for frozen precipitation here. Just the amounts and exact gradient location will be uncertain until the short term forecasts. Maybe we can get lucky with an overrunning event or two.
 

New run

Old run

 

 

 

Yeah looking at the mjo plots it's apparent we're going into the warmer phases after phase 3. However, we can hopefully emerge into a colder phase later in the season perhaps late February into March. 

 

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Curious why you use 25 inches as the average for NYC? The 30 year average 1991-2020 is 29.8 inches. Even if you use the historical average (1870-2024) which includes two of the least snowiest winters in recorded history, 22/23 & 23/24, the average is 28.5 inches. Are you using an average outside those date ranges?

I was looking at the longer term snowfall distribution from 1951 to 2020. From the 1950s into the early 1990s we had a high number of years within 5” of that 25” average. With fewer years much higher and much lower. But starting in 1994 it’s fewer years in the median of the distribution range and more years skewed much higher or much lower. So we went from a more compressed distribution near the center to one defined more by extremes.
 

1951-1980…24.8”

1961-1990…23.9”

1971-2000…21.9”

1981-2010….25.3”

1991-2020…29.8”

avg…25.1”

 

[wdrag]

If you wish a thread started for the period Jan 19-22

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, Eduardo said:

It’s close.  I was around for and loved both 95-96 and 02-03.  Even though 95-96 was snowier, the retention snob in me likes 14-15 slightly more than both of them.  It was true “deep winter.”

We really were spoiled for awhile beginning in 02-03.  I knew it at the time though and never took it for granted.

10-11 probably had more snowcover than any year I have ever lived through, the snow was literally up to my windows, it felt like being in the Poconos on the south shore of Long Island!

14-15 was right behind it and had the coldest month I have ever lived through here in February and with our snowiest March of my lifetime!

 

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i like this more for snow than the current pattern

Exactly what I've been saying!  Even February 2018, which was MUCH warmer than the current month, had more snow than this month has had!

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, MJO812 said:

AI Euro is very active 

Are you AI Ant?

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay, clouds, lower pressures, stronger winds, and warmer lakes with less ice have kept the minimum temperature departures significantly higher than the maxes this month so far in the Northeast.

Could it be debated that lack of a solid cold pool of air over eastern Canada also keeps the overnight temperatures up?  Actually, I don't think Hudson Bay has much to do with the minimum temps in New Jersey.  It was the wind preventing radiational cooling and an less than classic cold air mass?

[LibertyBell]

53 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

NYC:

Jan 11, 1991 : 5.6 inches of snow before a changeover to rain.

Jan 11, 1997 : 3.5 inches of snowfall.

Jan 11 - 12, 2011 : 9.1 inches of snowfall.

I remember that 1991 storm well, it was our first storm in a long time that even approached 6 inches and it still changed to rain.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember that 1991 storm well, it was our first storm in a long time that even approached 6 inches and it still changed to rain.

2 weeks earlier we had 6-8

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The significance is that March 2020 to 2024 was the first 5 year period with under 1” in NYC. So it has been tough to count on March for a big event this decade. Sure it’s possible we’ll eventually see some bigger Marches. But you probably want to build up a big enough snowfall surplus before March in case we see another March with well below average snow. Since relying on a big March to get near 25” is probably less likely without a snowy enough season before we get to March. 

The general topic of climate shifts is an interesting one. Since climate shifts usually happen without notice and only become obvious after a period of time has past. 

The major snowfall climate shift in NYC to ISP occurred after 1993. So we have had over 30 years of observations to confirm. NYC and ISP snowfall climatology has shifted to an all or nothing pattern over the last 30 years. Only 3 seasons in NYC have been close to the long term average of 25”. All the other seasons have experienced a larger deviation of plus or minus snowfall departures from this long term median. 

The previous 30 year period from the early 60s to early 90s was much colder and stable. So 12 seasons finished within about 5” inches of the 25” average. Many fewer seasons with a larger deviation above or below this average. We had a larger number of ways to get to a near average season. Since there were several seasons getting close to 25” with a bunch of smaller to moderate events.

The other thing which has occurred is that a KU snowstorm has become a prerequisite for seasonal average snowfall from around NYC to ISP. In the much colder era we could get to average seasonal snowfall at times without the aid of a larger regional KU event dumping 12”+ maxes within about a 50 to 75 mile radius of NYC. 2010 to 2018 experienced the largest concentration of NESIS snowstorms in the modern climate record. 

So since the early 90s we have experienced fewer ways to get an average snowfall  season in the 20s from NYC to ISP. And more ways to get well above or well below average snowfall. The 2020s average in NYC so far is only 14.2” through the halfway mark so far through 5 full seasons. This suggests that the only way NYC will finish this decade above 20” is for a significant increase in KU events from this winter into the following 4 remaining. If we continue with the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks pattern which has been in effect since December 2018, then this will be the least snowiest decade in NYC and surrounding areas history. So we need an increase in benchmark KU storm tracks as soon as possible in order to get back to average to above average snow this decade. 
 

The late 80s were similarly a snow drought like the current period, there was a 3 in 4 year stretch when JFK had less than 10 inches of snow, which has yet to be matched.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

2 weeks earlier we had 6-8

different storm?

Maybe it was that one.... I just remember we hadnt had 6 inches in a long time and we had a storm that dumped close to 6 inches but then changed to rain, like many storms did in that time period.

It snowed almost all day and then changed to rain when it got dark.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Could it be debated that lack of a solid cold pool of air over eastern Canada also keeps the overnight temperatures up?  Actually, I don't think Hudson Bay has much to do with the minimum temps in New Jersey.  It was the wind preventing radiational cooling and a less than classic cold air mass?

I would say it’s been a piece of the puzzle with how warm that region has been so far this winter.

 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Looks like another 15 days of nothing, time to start the February thread

With the SE ridge building and very cold air north there will definitely be something last third of month...just don't know what

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

different storm?

Maybe it was that one.... I just remember we hadnt had 6 inches in a long time and we had a storm that dumped close to 6 inches but then changed to rain, like many storms did in that time period.

It snowed almost all day and then changed to rain when it got dark.

No 2 different storms. The late dec storm changed to a bit of sleet at the end but was primarily a snow event. The 1/11 storm was snow to sleet to heavy rain. 

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I was looking at the longer term snowfall distribution from 1951 to 2020. From the 1950s into the early 1990s we had a high number of years within 5” of that 25” average. With fewer years much higher and much lower. But starting in 1994 it’s fewer years in the median of the distribution range and more years skewed much higher or much lower. So we went from a more compressed distribution near the center to one defined more by extremes.
 

1951-1980…24.8”

1961-1990…23.9”

1971-2000…21.9”

1981-2010….25.3”

1991-2020…29.8”

avg…25.1”

 

If we use just decadal averages, the 70s and 80s were our least snowiest decades with the 80s averaging less than 20 inches of snow!

If we use the least snowiest 10 year period, who comes in first? The period from 1983-84 through 1992-93?