January 2025

[cleetussnow]

17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

seems like -NAO blocking patterns are dry and suppressive, -EPO patterns without blocking are cutter patterns, and actual cutter patterns with -PNA are super cutter patterns.

what exactly is the pattern that will produce snowfall for some of you? what are some of you looking for exactly

relaxing NAOs...timing

[wdrag]

Wow lots of debate already.

I'll try and get a tracking thread going by tomorrow morning for the period Noon 1/19-Noon 1/22.  I want to word it carefully but it will be something like "possibly one or 2 minor wintry hazard events for a large part of the NYC subforum"

Fleshing info as available today and maps will be in the body including possibly ICE. 

I can see wet mild 19th with possible wintry mess I84, then I think the early guidance suggestion is something decent between 1/20-21.  Whether it cuts I dont know but 1/4-3/4" qpf is reasonable in that 2 day period. Strong RRQ 2H jet 20th becomes LF quad 21st-22nd. 

This can shift northwest-yes! and NYC seems destined for rain at least to start. Snowman will appreciate the rain.  Rest of forum probably no,  but hopefully we see a little snow which might satisfy.  

We're going into the climatologically coldest part of the winter.  Thread the needle might work for us?   Ensembles support something along this line including near normal snowfall NYC (1.2" in that 4 day period).  Daily norm is 0.3   That's not mega snow,  but our thirst for snow continues.

The big cold shot dropping into the north central USA around the 21st-22nd may get stuck at the Apps, or dribble across to our north near the Canadian border but be close by,  to possibly help us. 

Please enjoy what we see at sunrise tomorrow--hopefully it sticks in CP.  Gotta go.

[snowman19]

19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

seems like -NAO blocking patterns are dry and suppressive, -EPO patterns without blocking are cutter patterns, and actual cutter patterns with -PNA are super cutter patterns.

what exactly is the pattern that will produce snowfall for some of you? what are some of you looking for exactly

If there was a -NAO block along with that -EPO I’d absolutely say there’s a good chance of coastal snowstorms going forward, even without a +PNA. I do not believe an anomalous 13-14 redux is coming 

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

[wishcast_hater]

My fuel bill was always around $1,000 per month.  With pellets I cut it in half (ish.)  I still burn SOME oil.  Pellets were a lot cheaper 10 yrs ago when oil was still high, so I don't save as much.  

I hate these off-topic discussions but I use a pellet stove to heat my home as well. What I hate is that pellets used to be cheap and now the energy companies saw how many people were moving towards this alternative and made sure to screw the consumer on this fuel as welll. It’s. Still way cheaper than oil (which I don’t have, I use propane to heat the home).


.

[brooklynwx99]

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If there was a -NAO block along with that -EPO I’d absolutely say there’s a good chance of coastal snowstorms going forward, even without a +PNA. I do not believe an anomalous 13-14 redux is coming 

I wouldn’t expect something as ridiculous as 13-14… the pattern just reminded me of the one largely in place that year 

[LibertyBell]

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If there was a -NAO block along with that -EPO I’d absolutely say there’s a good chance of coastal snowstorms going forward, even without a +PNA. I do not believe an anomalous 13-14 redux is coming 

not sure what good a -NAO would do with that fast northern stream.

it hasn't helped us yet.

 

[Eduardo]

43 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I wouldn’t expect something as ridiculous as 13-14… the pattern just reminded me of the one largely in place that year 

Yeah I agree. Definitely some loose resemblance, though that was an especially epic year for snow and cold.  One of my personal fav’s—the top one for me being ‘14-15.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Eduardo said:

Yeah I agree. Definitely some loose resemblance, though that was an especially epic year for snow and cold.  One of my personal fav’s—the top one for me being ‘14-15.

my two favorites were 10-11 and 14-15

 

95-96 and 02-03 even better but those were a long time ago

[MJO812]

Gfs has a nice arctic wave

[anthonymm]

@MJO812

GFS bullseye 10 days out means its not happening. See what happened last time.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

@MJO812

GFS bullseye 10 days out means its not happening. See what happened last time.

Yes we know. It may, it may not. We're still going to talk about it

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

@MJO812

GFS bullseye 10 days out means its not happening. See what happened last time.

Maybe

[Nibor]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

seems like -NAO blocking patterns are dry and suppressive, -EPO patterns without blocking are cutter patterns, and actual cutter patterns with -PNA are super cutter patterns.

what exactly is the pattern that will produce snowfall for some of you? what are some of you looking for exactly

Listen, it’s not gonna snow unless MY needs are met and anyone who suggests otherwise is the real hysterical weenie. 

[Allsnow]

 

[psv88]

3 hours ago, MANDA said:

Don't get it either.   Mine was $350 last 30 days.  That is for a 3,000 SF house with zoned heating.  Includes cooking, clothes dryer and two not frequently used gas fireplaces.  I can't fathom paying $1000 a month for gas or other heating fuel.  Up until this bill my highest in a month was $263.  Been here since winter of 2016-17.

He has to be confused. Unless he runs a hotel 

[EastonSN+]

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

I thought Atlanta as of today had more snow than Philly too.

[donsutherland1]

Some snow flurries or snow showers are likely tonight into tomorrow as a storm passes well to the south and east of the region. Any accumulations will be small. Following the storm, a fair and somewhat milder weekend lies ahead. High temperatures will top out in the upper 30s to near 40° in New York City and Philadelphia. It will likely turn colder again by the middle of next week.

An extended period of generally below normal temperatures is underway in the New York City area. Although this cold regime will likely extend through at least the first three weeks of January, the kind of severe cold that produces minimum temperatures below 10° in the Philadelphia to New York City areas is unlikely during that period. The cold could still peak with readings dropping into the teens and several subfreezing highs.

The third week of January will likely feature a continuation of widespread cold anomalies in much of the eastern half of the CONUS and Canada south of the Hudson and James Bays. Those anomalies will likely result more from the prolonged nature of the cold than its severity. However, notable exceptions could be areas with fresh snow cover that experience strong radiational cooling. Moderation is possible during the closing week of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was -4.75 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.682 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.7° (3.0° below normal).

 

[SACRUS]

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

I thought Atlanta as of today had more snow than Philly too.

Atlanta’s official number is not yet available. 

[MJO812]

AI Euro is very active 

[forkyfork]

i like this more for snow than the current pattern

[SnoSki14]

Gradient type patterns can be good if we're on the right side of it

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Ye old snow hole effect in effect

[Eduardo]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

my two favorites were 10-11 and 14-15

 

95-96 and 02-03 even better but those were a long time ago

It’s close.  I was around for and loved both 95-96 and 02-03.  Even though 95-96 was snowier, the retention snob in me likes 14-15 slightly more than both of them.  It was true “deep winter.”

We really were spoiled for awhile beginning in 02-03.  I knew it at the time though and never took it for granted.

[donsutherland1]

11 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I thought Atlanta as of today had more snow than Philly too.

Atlanta’s snowfall was 2.1”.

[wdrag]

my 2c fwiw:  The last ugh will be merged into the upcoming thread at 830A. 

 

Tuesday-Wednesday entire ne USA: Windy and much colder with scattered flurries: Wind NOT AS STRONG as what occurred the middle of this past week (Tue and Thu in particular)..agt least that's what modeled in the EPS 24 hr max wind gusts, which had the two days of 50-60MPH that occurred in the ridges this past week. 

Thursday MD-PA-NJ-NYS-LI-CT-MA: A period flurries possible le and might dust a few locations. Minor amounts less than 1/2".

Sunday January 19-early Wednesday the 22nd northeast USA from VA northward to NYS-MA needs monitoring for travel plans. One or possibly two hazardous wintry events may even involve the big cities from DC-Philly to NYC-BOS. Not a major storm but annoying minor to possibly moderate impact 1-6" amounts of snow and a period of icing, especially interior just west of I95 through the I84 corridor Monday-Tuesday the 20th-21st. Monitor later this week for potential travel plan adjustments. Another shot of reinforcing wind driven cold should follow around the 22nd.   I'll merge this into the body and the headline will not be accumulation specific.  Checking 06z GEFS now for final. 

[RU848789]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

We want to try and get as much snow as we can before March since the 2020s Marches haven’t been as snowy as the 2010s even with the La Ninas in 21,22, and 23.

March Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.1	0.1
2024	T	T
2023	0.1	0.1
2022	0.4	0.4
2021	T	T
2020	T	T

 

March Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	6.0	6.0
2019	10.4	10.4
2018	11.6	11.6
2017	9.7	9.7
2016	0.9	0.9
2015	18.6	18.6
2014	0.1	0.1
2013	7.3	7.3
2012	0.0	0.0
2011	1.0	1.0
2010	T	T

 

 

Yes, but 5 years of data is not necessarily indicative of some sort of climate shift.  The previous 3 March's (including one April snow) I got 11.8", 26.2" and 10.5".  

[MJO812]

Euro eps moving forward

Looks nice