Brian5671 Posted Friday at 08:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:00 PM 5 minutes ago, Snowshack said: 45f driving along the LIE in Suffolk. Wasn’t expecting that. melted what little snow we had left here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Friday at 08:05 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:05 PM finally looks cold with precip after the 18th or so. reminiscent of the patterns we had in 13-14 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Friday at 08:11 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:11 PM Looks like a cutter pattern with dry/cold in between 2 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Friday at 08:15 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:15 PM 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks like a cutter pattern with dry/cold in between Thanks Snowman19 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Friday at 08:16 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:16 PM 5 hours ago, FPizz said: Bluewave says Jan thaw next weekend, so get ready! We actually got a bit of a January thaw today with 40s and lighter winds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Friday at 08:16 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:16 PM Just now, Allsnow said: Looks like a cutter pattern with dry/cold in between Said it yesterday. There is no blocking. +NAO and +AO. The ridge axis is completely west of the west coast and the SE ridge/WAR is trying to flex. If a shortwave amps, it’s going to cut, there’s nothing (blocking; -NAO, 50/50 low) to force secondary coastal redevelopment. Yea, we can hope for a 13-14 redux with the -EPO, but that was an extremely anomalous pattern. Good luck getting an exact repeat of that 10 years later 2 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted Friday at 08:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:18 PM 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: i mean DC got its 4th largest snowstorm this decade. just crappy luck that a TPV lobe moved to our north. the main threat area was NYC to RIC and it was the southern half of that envelope This isn’t the DC forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Friday at 08:21 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:21 PM 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks like a cutter pattern with dry/cold in between thats not a cutter on the qpf chart 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Friday at 08:23 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:23 PM Just now, cleetussnow said: thats not a cutter on the qpf chart Not at all Plenty of cold air around. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Friday at 08:24 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:24 PM 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Said it yesterday. There is no blocking. +NAO and +AO. The ridge axis is completely west of the west coast and the SE ridge/WAR is trying to flex. If a shortwave amps, it’s going to cut, there’s nothing (blocking; -NAO, 50/50 low) to force secondary coastal redevelopment. Yea, we can hope for a 13-14 redux with the -EPO, but that was an extremely anomalous pattern. Good luck getting an exact repeat of that 10 years later People don't care because blocking didn't seem to do any good when it was here, they want a change. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Friday at 08:25 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:25 PM 6 minutes ago, psv88 said: This isn’t the DC forum. I don't see how it was *luck* anyway since the PV was well forecast to do what it did and we have a bunch of analogs that match exactly what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Friday at 08:25 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:25 PM The barroclinic zone after the 19th is to the benchmark 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Friday at 08:27 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:27 PM More pretty charts 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Friday at 08:28 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:28 PM Just now, Allsnow said: More pretty charts Buckle up! 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Friday at 08:31 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:31 PM 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: More pretty charts Where is the warmth that you and snowman19456789 predicted so far ? Come on its still early winter and the pattern looks better coming up. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Friday at 08:31 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:31 PM All we got right now is the long range. Hopefully we cash in, but maybe time to take a break this weekend from tracking and do something else... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Friday at 08:33 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:33 PM 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Where is the warmth that you and snowman19456789 predicted so far ? Come on its still early winter and the pattern looks better coming up. When have I called for warmth? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Friday at 08:37 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:37 PM 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: and then back to snowy in March? That happens in la ninas too. We want to try and get as much snow as we can before March since the 2020s Marches haven’t been as snowy as the 2010s even with the La Ninas in 21,22, and 23. March Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2024 T T 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T March Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 6.0 6.0 2019 10.4 10.4 2018 11.6 11.6 2017 9.7 9.7 2016 0.9 0.9 2015 18.6 18.6 2014 0.1 0.1 2013 7.3 7.3 2012 0.0 0.0 2011 1.0 1.0 2010 T T 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted Friday at 08:38 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:38 PM Gas is $1100 a month? How can that be? My new house will have gas. Does that include cooking, etc? i pay $700 or so in oil every 3 months in winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Friday at 08:41 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:41 PM 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: Gas is $1100 a month? How can that be? My new house will have gas. Does that include cooking, etc? i pay $700 or so in oil every 3 months in winter My dad use to pay $600 every 3 months when we had oil. He got his oil from Approved Oil. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Friday at 08:42 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:42 PM 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: Gas is $1100 a month? How can that be? My new house will have gas. Does that include cooking, etc? i pay $700 or so in oil every 3 months in winter I think they jack up prices during peak demand, I've gotten four figure monthly gas bills here in January for a few years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Friday at 08:42 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:42 PM 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: When have I called for warmth? You have so far this winter because the models showed it . The models especially the eps doesn't show any warmth ahead. The weeklies also show a good pattern. You and snowman are like lost long cousins . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Friday at 08:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:43 PM 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: All we got right now is the long range. Hopefully we cash in, but maybe time to take a break this weekend from tracking and do something else... We have some snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Friday at 08:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:43 PM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: My dad use to pay $600 every 3 months when we had oil. He got his oil from Approved Oil. oil and even propane is probably better than so-called *natural* gas (really methane). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted Friday at 08:45 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:45 PM 10 minutes ago, psv88 said: Gas is $1100 a month? How can that be? My new house will have gas. Does that include cooking, etc? i pay $700 or so in oil every 3 months in winter Don't get it either. Mine was $350 last 30 days. That is for a 3,000 SF house with zoned heating. Includes cooking, clothes dryer and two not frequently used gas fireplaces. I can't fathom paying $1000 a month for gas or other heating fuel. Up until this bill my highest in a month was $263. Been here since winter of 2016-17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Friday at 08:53 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:53 PM 36 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Said it yesterday. There is no blocking. +NAO and +AO. The ridge axis is completely west of the west coast and the SE ridge/WAR is trying to flex. If a shortwave amps, it’s going to cut, there’s nothing (blocking; -NAO, 50/50 low) to force secondary coastal redevelopment. Yea, we can hope for a 13-14 redux with the -EPO, but that was an extremely anomalous pattern. Good luck getting an exact repeat of that 10 years later “trying” to flex doesn’t count. the ridge is super flat and there’s TPV vorticity in southern Canada that will make it more difficult for storms to gain latitude the gradient is largely south of us. sure, you can get a cutter, but calling it a cutter pattern is reductive. cutter patterns have deep troughs in the west and strong ridges in the east. that is not the case here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Friday at 09:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:00 PM seems like -NAO blocking patterns are dry and suppressive, -EPO patterns without blocking are cutter patterns, and actual cutter patterns with -PNA are super cutter patterns. what exactly is the pattern that will produce snowfall for some of you? what are some of you looking for exactly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Friday at 09:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:02 PM 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: seems like -NAO blocking patterns are dry and suppressive, -EPO patterns without blocking are cutter patterns, and actual cutter patterns with -PNA are super cutter patterns. what exactly is the pattern that will produce snowfall for some of you? what are some of you looking for exactly I'd go moderate -AO and -NAO with some semblance of a SE Ridge to keep the baroclinic zone further north. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted Friday at 09:12 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:12 PM 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: seems like -NAO blocking patterns are dry and suppressive, -EPO patterns without blocking are cutter patterns, and actual cutter patterns with -PNA are super cutter patterns. what exactly is the pattern that will produce snowfall for some of you? what are some of you looking for exactly I think DarkStar's snow triangle says "luck." We need luck. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted Friday at 09:14 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:14 PM 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Looks like a cutter pattern with dry/cold in between You risk cutters in that pattern, but I wouldn’t call it a “cutter pattern.” It’s like a diet 13-14 look. You can score decent events when waves ride the arctic boundary dragged down by a cutter, in fact! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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