January 2025

[bluewave]

The Euro and EPS have been running too cold at times like today. Remember it had highs staying under 32° today. Several spots made it into the mid to upper 30s.

 

 

 

 

 

[FPizz]

32/19 split here, max wind gust on my station was 39.  Forecast was 32

[donsutherland1]

Today was fair, very windy, and continued cold, although the mercury topped out at 33° in Central Park. Clouds could incrase tomorrow afternoon or evening as a storm passes well south and east of the region. There could be some snow flurries or snow showers tomorrow night into Saturday. Any accumulations will be small.

Before then, the storm has the potential to bring Atlanta a minor accumulation of snow on Friday into Saturday. The last time Atlanta experienced a measurable snowfall was December 26, 2022 when 0.1" snow fell. In most cases, Atlanta's snowfalls don't result in much snowfall in the New York City area. For example, since 1950, Atlanta has seen 17 January snowstorms of 1" or more. In 12 (71%) of those cases, New York City saw less than 0.5" of snow, including 8 (47%) cases with no measurable snowfall.

An extended period of generally below normal temperatures is underway in the New York City area. Although this cold regime will likely extend through at least the first three weeks of January, the kind of severe cold that produces minimum temperatures below 10° in the Philadelphia to New York City areas is unlikely during that period. The cold could still peak with readings dropping into the teens and several subfreezing highs.

The third week of January will likely feature a continuation of widespread cold anomalies in much of the eastern half of the CONUS and Canada south of the Hudson and James Bays. Those anomalies will likely result more from the prolonged nature of the cold than its severity. However, notable exceptions could be areas with fresh snow cover that experience strong radiational cooling. Moderation is possible during the closing week of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was -4.75 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.784 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.5° (3.2° below normal).

 

[EastonSN+]

39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

thanks for clarifying Walt....at least the cold will extend a little bit beyond the end of January.

 

I don't trust the weeklies whatsoever at that range, it's a coin toss whether we reload into the same type of pattern we have now or we default into a typical Nina pattern.

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today was fair, very windy, and continued cold, although the mercury topped out at 33° in Central Park. Clouds could incrase tomorrow afternoon or evening as a storm passes well south and east of the region. There could be some snow flurries or snow showers tomorrow night into Saturday. Any accumulations will be small.

Before then, the storm has the potential to bring Atlanta a minor accumulation of snow on Friday into Saturday. The last time Atlanta experienced a measurable snowfall was December 26, 2022 when 0.1" snow fell. In most cases, Atlanta's snowfalls don't result in much snowfall in the New York City area. For example, since 1950, Atlanta has seen 17 January snowstorms of 1" or more. In 12 (71%) of those cases, New York City saw less than 0.5" of snow, including 8 (47%) cases with no measurable snowfall.

An extended period of generally below normal temperatures is underway in the New York City area. Although this cold regime will likely extend through at least the first three weeks of January, the kind of severe cold that produces minimum temperatures below 10° in the Philadelphia to New York City areas is unlikely during that period. The cold could still peak with readings dropping into the teens and several subfreezing highs.

The third week of January will likely feature a continuation of widespread cold anomalies in much of the eastern half of the CONUS and Canada south of the Hudson and James Bays. Those anomalies will likely result more from the prolonged nature of the cold than its severity. However, notable exceptions could be areas with fresh snow cover that experience strong radiational cooling. Moderation is possible during the closing week of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was -4.75 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.784 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.5° (3.2° below normal).

 

wow you raised the January mean prediction from 30.3 to 30.5 Don!

[wdrag]

I'm in agreement with doubters about the weeklies beyond week two and also the cold bias. Added the Pivotal EPS weekly means FEB 3-17. They are warmer than normal but not ANOMALOUSLY WARM. 

Minor good news... the EPS week 2-3 courtesy of Pivotal shows a tendency for above normal snowfall see in our area.  That didnt say KU..just a decent chance we get some normal snowfall within a two week period sometime between January 20ish and Feb 3.  This latter will factor into a thread, whenever I can see it having a better chance of verifying on LI.  Right now, am cautious but I see more snow in our future.  Take this for whatever it is worth. 

 

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Do I have it wrong?

No

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

The dates ranges are out of sync

Weatherbell is messing with their temperature anomaly algorithm which is completely insane to me.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

wow you raised the January mean prediction from 30.3 to 30.5 Don!

Guidance raised it. It's based purely on the guidance.

[wdrag]

18 minutes ago, Rjay said:

No

Weatherbell is messing with their temperature anomaly algorithm which is completely insane to me.

I dropped weather bell many years ago... the graphics looked nice but other stuff got me down. Pivotal has been good for all of us...maybe their graphics are not quite as shiny but I like what they produce and also how they respond to inquiries. 

I am hopeful everyone is in agreement that odds,  according to the EPS show a possibly warmer than normal week 4-5 both in the Pivotal and the ECMWF.int presentations. 

Fingers crossed the EC, RGEM, SREF and BOM are wrong about meager accumulation or Trace on Saturday.

[NorthShoreWx]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

January 2022 was pretty impressive on the back bays but nothing like February 2015 on our local waterways.

https://tomsriver.shorebeat.com/2022/02/fire-and-ice-blazing-sunset-blankets-a-frozen-barnegat-bay-video-gallery/

 

 

Long Island Sound / Smithtown Bay, February 2015

[wdrag]

NAEFS is tightening up to 1/19-20 event with 4" snowfall potential where all snow (no sleet/ice/rain).  Looks to me like rain or ice could edge all the way into nw NJ/se NYS/s CT for a time in this two day period but am also pretty sure there should  be some snow on the front and back end but will it be meaningful for Li?  My guess is yes, but what is meaningful to each of us?  

That's the direction I'm going in.  Want to check tomorrow morning to see if this minor or moderate impact event still looks decent for our subforum.  

There will be more snow possibilities behind this in January but at the forefront (imo) for starting a probable tracking thread in the next day or two, is the 19th-20th. Tracking does not mean this will satisfy our snow thirst... just allow us to direct comments from the January thread to a probable event thread. 

For fun I added the 12z/9 NAEFS probability of more than 10MM of qpf for this period (0.4" melted).  See the graphic-click and check the legend. 50% or greater...  nice start. Hope it holds.   NAEFS is made up GEFS and CMCE.  IMPERFECT but an idea that the storm track, barring a closed low at 5H developing down into the Great Lakes, should be just to our south.  I'm VERY confident of an event = 90%,  just not confident how much of it can be snow.    CPC on the right track with a slight risk of heavy snow into e NYS and ne PA... just not us. 

Have a good night. 

[ForestHillWx]

23 here now, was 17 when I left the house this morning. Seems cold out this way…

[Allsnow]

 

[North and West]

 

.

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Long Island Sound / Smithtown Bay, February 2015

The last time that I am aware of significant icing on LI Sound other than that noted above was in February 1979 in the week prior to PD 1.  I was able to walk several hundred yards out onto the ice at Sunken Meadow at that time.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Long Island Sound / Smithtown Bay, February 2015

Looks like the Arctic, Ed, I wonder if we set record low SST that month?

[wdrag]

No thread this morning on  late 1/18-early 22, due to too much uncertainty. Am 75% confident of a snow-ice hazard I84 corridor somewhere in this period but closer to I95 am much less sure right now.  Dont want to raise hopes for more than an inch of snow NYC in this 4 day period-we can always thread that when we can focus on 1 day.   Need to raise the bar a little.  So far, for me, this isn't quite it.  Will check back at 5P.

[LoboLeader1]

15 here in the Berks this morning.

[bluewave]

We should get our January thaw next weekend followed by what could be the coldest temperatures this month and possibly winter so far. This is looking like the first legit Arctic airmass to enter North America this winter. Details will depend in the short term -EPO intensity. 
 

 

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We should get our January thaw next weekend followed by what could be the coldest temperatures this month and possibly winter so far. This is looking like the first legit Arctic airmass to enter North America this winter. Details will depend in the short term -EPO intensity. 
 

 

 

 

 

One constant this winter so far has definitely been the negative EPO. 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We should get our January thaw next weekend followed by what could be the coldest temperatures this month and possibly winter so far. This is looking like the first legit Arctic airmass to enter North America this winter. Details will depend in the short term -EPO intensity. 
 

 

 

 

 

We need the ridge to slightly pump up to get snow. 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

We need the ridge to slightly pump up to get snow. 

That January 20th to 27th period could be very important for the whole winter. The magnitude of the cold may determine if we see our first colder winter here in 10 years. Since La Niña Februaries usually have the highest winter temperature departure for us. We need a big enough cold departure to stay in tact against any February warm ups. Hopefully, NYC can break its 4” losing streak before the pattern modifies as we approach February. 

[EastonSN+]

Not sure if this map is a la nina or El nino, however, looks as though phase 3 is cold across the country. Looking at the forecasted mjo looks like we may have a standing wave in three. This may keep us in the freezer?

[SACRUS]

 

29 / 12 off a low of 22.  First 40s since Jan 3rd and near normal.   Swing and a miss south Saturday.  Near normal through the 13th then very cold 14 - 18th and dry  ahead of what could be mix or mix to rain in the well advertised Jan 19 - 21 system.  Beyond there to close the month overall colder than normal.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 65 (2016)
NYC: 60 (1876)
LGA: 59 (2016)
JFK: 58 (2016)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (1982)
NYC" -3 (1875)
LGA: 2 (2004)
JFK: 2 (2004)

Historical:

1800 - Savannah, GA, received a foot and a half of snow, and ten inches blanketed Charleston SC. It was the heaviest snowfall of record for the immediate Coastal Plain of the southeastern U.S. (David Ludlum)

 

1800: According to David Ludlum, Savannah, Georgia, received a foot and a half of snow and ten inches blanketed Charleston, SC. It was the heaviest snowfall of record for the immediate Coastal Plain of the southeastern U.S.

1911 - The temperature at Rapid City, SD, plunged 47 degrees in just fifteen minutes. (The Weather Channel)

1949 - Snow was reported at San Diego, CA, for the first and only time since 1882. Snow was noted even on some of the beaches in parts of the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Burbank reported 4.7 inches, and Long Beach and Laguna Beach received one inch of snow. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1949: Snow was reported in San Diego, California, for the first time since 1882. The snow was noted on some of the beaches in parts of the Los Angeles metropolitan area.

1975 - The "Storm of the Century" hit Minnesota. A severe blizzard moved northward across the state producing up to two feet of snow. High winds drove wind chill readings to 80 degrees below zero, and at Duluth MN the barometric pressure dipped to 28.55 inches. The storm, which claimed 35 lives, occurred on the 102nd anniversary of the infamous "Pioneer Blizzard" in Minnesota. (David Ludlum)

1982 - The temperature at O'Hare Airport in Chicago, IL, plunged to an all-time record of 26 degrees below zero, and high winds drove the wind chill reading to 77 degrees below zero. The temperaturein Downtown Chicago reached 23 degrees below zero. A week later a second arctic surge sent the temperature plunging back down to 25 degrees below zero. (Weather Channel) (National Weather Summary)

1982: Bitterly cold weather was found across Illinois. Of the 109 weather reporting stations in the state, 48 of those reported lows of 20 degrees below zero or colder. Some of the most frigid temperatures included 27 below zero at Rockford, 26 below zero at Chicago, and 25 below zero at Kankakee and Peoria. The Freezer Bowl was played between the Cincinnati Bengals and the San Deigo Chargers in bitterly cold wind chills. The air temperature was −9 °F, but the wind chill, factoring in a sustained wind of 27 mph,  was −37 °F.

1987 - Bitter cold air invaded the Rocky Mountain Region, with subzero readings reported as far south as Gallop NM. Pocatello ID reported a record low reading of 14 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary)

1988 - A storm in the northwestern U.S. produced wind gusts to 97 mph at Netarts OR, and up to two feet of snow in the mountains of Oregon. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - The first documented January tornado of record in Utah struck the south part of Sandy. Asphalt shingles were driven one half inch into a fence. (The Weather Channel) Clear skies, light winds, and up to 24 inches of snow cover, allowed the temperature to plunge to 45 degrees below zero at Roseau MN, and to -43 degrees at Warroad MN. The afternoon high at Grand Forks ND was 16 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary)

1990 - Strong southerly winds ahead of a Pacific cold front helped temperatures in the central U.S. soar as much as 50 degrees during the day. A total of fifty cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, with afternoon highs in the 70s reported as far north as Nebraska and eastern Colorado. Highs of 53 at devils Lake ND, 76 at Grand Island NE, 73 at Lincoln NE, and 73 at North Platte NE, established records for the month of January. (National Weather Summary)

2001 - Storms dumped more than seven inches of rain on parts of southern California, including Los Angeles, where nearly four inches of rain fell. The heavy rains caused mudslides and road closures along much of California's central coast and up to three feet of snow was deposited in some coastal mountain areas. (NCDC)

[SACRUS]

 

NYC

Jan 10 - 11,  1954: 8.5 inches of snow falls over 48 hours

[SACRUS]

On 1/9/2025 at 8:37 AM, SACRUS said:

 

C

 

May get to or above normal Fri (10)

 

old period daily dep:

 

Jan 4

EWR: 36 / 28 (-2)
NYC: 33 / 28 (-4)
LGA: 34 / 29 (-4)
JFK: 37 / 30 (0 E)

 

--------------------------------------------------

Jan 5:

EWR: 36 / 28 (-2)
NYC: 33 / 28 (-4)
LGA: 34 / 28 (-4)
JFK: 37 / 29 (-1)

-

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Jan 6:

EWR:   31 / 22 (-6)
NYC: 30 / 22 (-8)
LGA:  33 / 23 (-7)
JFK: 33 / 24 (-5)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Jan 7

EWR: 35 / 19 (-6)
NYC: 33 / 19 (-8)
LGA: 34 / 20 (-8)
JFK: 36 / 20 (-6)

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jan 8

EWR: 32 / 22 (-6)
NYC: 30 / 23 (-7)
LGA: 31 / 24 (-7)
JFK: 33 / 24 (-4)

----------------------------

 

Jan 9

 

EWR: 36 / 22 (-4)
NYC: 33 / 22 (-6)
LGA: 34 / 24 (-6)
JFK: 37 / 24 (-2)

 

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[BxEngine]

55 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

One constant this winter so far has definitely been the negative EPO. 

Weird. Guess others should have treaded lightly when claiming we were gonna go ++++EPO.

[Stormlover74]

38 with sun and light winds today will feel great 

[wdrag]

Perspective: toss the blues and pinks since I could get not get rid of the coops that show up here so they are way too cold in the ranking due to their short period of record... but, at least for us older timers... this past week has been cold but not absurdly so.

The past week approaching the coldest part of winter is ranked about 25th coldest.  See below.