January 2025

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, forkyfork said:

hmm slightly below average temps for a few weeks or one of our biggest blizzards ever i can't decide

*luck* keeps getting mentioned but that's a copout.

The dry suppressive nature of this pattern was talked about even before January started.

 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

we've gained about 20 minutes in the afternoon-nothing in the morning yet but that will change soon

it changes after January 10th, but I've always wondered why there's this asymmetry between sunrises and sunsets.

[JerseyWx]

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder what the reason for this asymmetry is? why do sunrises not get earlier when the sunsets keep getting later?

Because, from what I understand, it's called analemma.  You can see that on globes sometimes.  I used to wonder what that was as a kid. 

Basically it's because the Earth doesn't rotate around the sun in a perfect circle, and the axis is tilted.  Beyond that, you'll need an astronomer lol.

[bluewave]

The wind has had more to do with how cold it has felt the last few days. Plus the first week of January is starting colder than the last two years. But it’s warm compared to how cold January 1st-7th in 2018 and 2014 were.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending January 1-7 average temperature

2025-01-07	33.0	0
2024-01-07	36.2	0
2023-01-07	49.5	0
2022-01-07	37.6	0
2021-01-07	38.1	0
2020-01-07	41.2	0
2019-01-07	40.1	0
2018-01-07	16.4	0
2017-01-07	35.6	0
2016-01-07	32.9	0
2015-01-07	32.7	0
2014-01-07	24.0	0

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

The wind has had more to do with how cold it has felt the last few days. Plus the first week of January is starting colder than the last two years. But it’s warm compared to how cold January 1st-7th in 2018 and 2014 were.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending January 1-7 average temperarure

 

2025-01-07 33.0 0 2024-01-07 36.2 0 2023-01-07 49.5 0 2022-01-07 37.6 0 2021-01-07 38.1 0 2020-01-07 41.2 0 2019-01-07 40.1 0 2018-01-07 16.4 0 2017-01-07 35.6 0 2016-01-07 32.9 0 2015-01-07 32.7 0 2014-01-07 24.0 0

Since you're a data buff, maybe you would find this interesting too:

What's the coldest January with less than 3 inches of snow?

What's the coldest month with less than 3 inches of snow (could be DJF)?

What's the coldest overall season with less than 20 inches of snow?  Less than 10 inches of snow?

 

[JerseyWx]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The wind has had more to do with how cold it has felt the last few days. Plus the first week of January is starting colder than the last two years. But it’s warm compared to how cold January 1st-7th in 2018 and 2014 were.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending January 1-7 average temperature

2025-01-07	33.0	0
2024-01-07	36.2	0
2023-01-07	49.5	0
2022-01-07	37.6	0
2021-01-07	38.1	0
2020-01-07	41.2	0
2019-01-07	40.1	0
2018-01-07	16.4	0
2017-01-07	35.6	0
2016-01-07	32.9	0
2015-01-07	32.7	0
2014-01-07	24.0	0

But I have to say, it's at least a lot colder than it's been since the 20's era began.  We're not far off from 2015 either.

To me, I don't agree with the if it's not snowing it may as well be warm sentiment.  I can't speak for the city and surrounding areas, but we've had a lot of mornings in the teens here, and I've taken some cold hikes so far, including Sunday which was brutal with the wind.  Maybe not a lot to show for it, but it feels like winter at least.  Look how bad 2023 was.

[NorthShoreWx]

4 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

At least there's another potential storm on the maps. With consistent cold weather in January, you'd think we'd get lucky with something at some point. 

 

 

  (but yes)

 

 

[Allsnow]

Nyc just missed a cold wave with 2 of the last 3 days below frz 

 

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The wind has had more to do with how cold it has felt the last few days. Plus the first week of January is starting colder than the last two years. But it’s warm compared to how cold January 1st-7th in 2018 and 2014 were.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending January 1-7 average temperature

2025-01-07	33.0	0
2024-01-07	36.2	0
2023-01-07	49.5	0
2022-01-07	37.6	0
2021-01-07	38.1	0
2020-01-07	41.2	0
2019-01-07	40.1	0
2018-01-07	16.4	0
2017-01-07	35.6	0
2016-01-07	32.9	0
2015-01-07	32.7	0
2014-01-07	24.0	0

33.0 average for the first 7 days of January would have been above average a couple of decades ago. My how things have changed and how we've forgotten. 

[wdrag]

14 hours ago, wdrag said:

Around Thursday January 16 PA-NJ-CT-MA-LI:  areas of snow or snow showers should dust portions of this area with 1/2-2" of snow. UNCERTAIN target area but the snow could briefly be a hazard and the max amount may only be an inch?  Where is the target for accumulative snow.  No thread til we get past the 11th event and even then maybe no thread, especially if target for a minor 1" s outside of our NYC subforum. 

January 19-22 NO THREAD from me until some sort of consistent thermal modeling develops but all modeling says there will be an event. Is it mainly rain here in NYC with a little ice-snow to start?   I've taken the pessimistic view to start. Overall I think a "potentially" large areal coverage wintry impact event probably evolves first over the southern USA as rain around the 19th-then becomes larger as it moves northward the 20th-22nd. Does it come out in pieces? It probably but not certainly,  should be a snow or ice mix in the northeast, at least to start.   No thread since 12 days away and what I perceive as vast uncertainty on thermal structure. 

 

I think both continue on the table, the 19th-22 should eventually need a thread but waiting out the 11th first.  For now, looks pretty good in all the ensembles for some and ice throughout the NYC subforum but also rain will probably be a part of the answers for the I95 corridor.  NAEFS BL temp looks above 32F at times so while I cant currently get hopes up for 2+" of sticking snow in CP,  I think we'll see wintry hazards for our interior one or two of these 4 days and therefore trackable, even if it doesn't satisfy our snowy wants in NYC-LI-s CT. I hope a thread of interest can wait until late Saturday so it can be backed up with a little basis.  Remember the Monday 1/6 event was very-very well forecast for the Ohio Valley 7-8 days in advance but the big snow axis  was about 180 miles too far south of early model ensemble anticipations here east of Appalachians. 

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

33.0 average for the first 7 days of January would have been above average a couple of decades ago. My how things have changed and how we've forgotten. 

December average of 39 is a total joke too.

NYC climate was reclassified when our coldest month ceased to be 32.0 or below, we are now subtropical.

If you go back to the 1800s and even prior, both January and February averaged in the upper 20s and February used to be colder than January.

[Allsnow]

 

[Blizzwalker]

5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Storms don’t trend NW because “that just happens”. If we keep this suppressive blocking pattern and fast Pacific, this same outcome will keep happening. 

Although the fine points elude me, I know that NW trends don't just happen. Just offered some misguided sarcasm.

-- I see it's a strategy used by some of us when disappointment looms...

 

[TJW014]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

when is ice going to start forming on our back bays?

Already is. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it changes after January 10th, but I've always wondered why there's this asymmetry between sunrises and sunsets.

Check this out.  I get the gist of it but not well enough to articulate it (even though most here would probably consider this to be written at a first grade reading level), so here's the link:  

BTW, I bet if you ask 100 people on the street on what day is the latest sunrise and earliest sunset, 99 out of 100 will say the first day of winter.

[donsutherland1]

Today was another windy and cold day. Most of the rest of the week will feature generally quiet weather in terms of precipitation. There will be a gusty wind, at times.

A developing coastal storm could graze parts of the region during the weekend. Any accumulations will be small. Before then, the storm has the potential to bring Atlanta a minor accumulation of snow on Friday into Saturday. The last time Atlanta experienced a measurable snowfall was December 26, 2022 when 0.1" snow fell.

An extended period of generally below normal temperatures is underway in the New York City area. Although this cold regime will likely extend through at least mid-month, the kind of severe cold that produces minimum temperatures below 10° in the Philadelphia to New York City areas is unlikely during that period. The cold could still peak with readings dropping into the teens and several subfreezing highs.

The second and third weeks of January will likely feature widespread cold anomalies in much of the eastern half of the CONUS and Canada south of the Hudson and James Bays. The potential exists for widespread cold anomalies of 6°-10° below normal during that week in parts of that region, particularly the Southeast. Those anomalies will likely result more from the prolonged nature of the cold than its severity. However, notable exceptions could be areas with fresh snow cover that experience strong radiational cooling.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop persists. On the December 19 outlook, 56% of dynamical models but 0% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña.

The SOI was -3.53 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.332 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.3° (3.4° below normal).

 

[North and West]

I hate spring and summer 

Eh, it’s nice to find something enjoyable about all of the seasons!


.

[Stormlover74]

21 already. Forecast low is 20

[MJO812]

24 here

[Snowlover11]

19F

[rclab]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I hate spring and summer 

Anthony, without them, winter would be meaningless. As always …..

[ForestHillWx]

17 here; with the wind this feels like one of the colder nights of the winter. Just in from taking the dog out and it’s brutal. 

[psv88]

This weather absolutely fucking sucks. Completely miserable. 

[Stormlover74]

12 minutes ago, psv88 said:

This weather absolutely fucking sucks. Completely miserable. 

Who doesn't love high heating bills and bare ground?

[coastalplainsnowman]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Who doesn't love high heating bills and bare ground?

I'm always surprised that a lot of posters here have the preference that if it's not going to snow that they prefer it to be mild.  I admit that as I get older I like the idea of the cold more in theory than in actual practice, but still I'll take the cold over mild in January and February, whether its accompanied by snow or not.  This goes double for the Thanksgiving to New Year's timeframe.  Love the idea of seeing the lakes freeze over, and walking on a frozen lawn.  Why?  Who knows.  But I think part of it is that surprise 60s once March gets here feel 10x better when they follow a cold winter.  When the winter is full of damp 55s, March 60s don't hit the same way.  Ok, I could have started this thing Dear Diary lol but anyway that's my take.

 

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I'm always surprised that a lot of posters here have the preference that if it's not going to snow that they prefer it to be mild.  I admit that as I get older I like the idea of the cold more in theory than in actual practice, but still I'll take the cold over mild in January and February, whether its accompanied by snow or not.  This goes double for the Thanksgiving to New Year's timeframe.  Love the idea of seeing the lakes freeze over, and walking on a frozen lawn.  Why?  Who knows.  But I think part of it is that surprise 60s once March gets here feel 10x better when they follow a cold winter.  When the winter is full of damp 55s, March 60s don't hit the same way.  Ok, I could have started this thing Dear Diary lol but anyway that's my take.

 

Go outside in a sweatshirt and stand in the wind for 20 minutes. Then tell me if you like this weather. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Go outside in a sweatshirt and stand in the wind for 20 minutes. Then tell me if you like this weather. 

It's way better than swamp ass weather. I would take this anyday.

[NEG NAO]

here we go again with the GFS long range

[RU848789]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

here we go again with the GFS long range

Was just looking at that.  Another kick in the nuts for most of us not well N/W, with DC/Balt getting near 6" and nada for Philly-NYC-Boston.  Verbatim, of course - good to have something that might turn into something good.  

[jm1220]

17 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Was just looking at that.  Another kick in the nuts for most of us not well N/W, with DC/Balt getting near 6" and nada for Philly-NYC-Boston.  Verbatim, of course - good to have something that might turn into something good.  

And then-verbatim, back to windy cold and dry. Maybe all this noise in the northern stream can actually nudge something like this east, but last month the precip arrived in spades when the cold went away.

I agree, this weather outside is brutal. Had to pick my garbage pails up for the 3rd time today in the freezing wind and frozen brown ground. I really don't get those who actually enjoy this.