January 2025

[Nibor]

The phasing differences run to run determine between historic blizzard and nothing. Pretty maddening.

[Stormlover74]

I know it's unlikely but this is the 4th gfs run in the past 2 days with a similar solution though this one is the best outcome

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I know it's unlikely but this is the 4th gfs run in the past 2 days with a similar solution though this one is the best outcome

Is it unlikely ? The pattern supports a big storm. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Is it unlikely ? The pattern supports a big storm. 

Need some other models to get on board. 

[North and West]

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[Irish]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I know it's unlikely but this is the 4th gfs run in the past 2 days with a similar solution though this one is the best outcome

Why is unlikely, I've heard from multiple sources that it's a great look. 

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I know it's unlikely but this is the 4th gfs run in the past 2 days with a similar solution though this one is the best outcome

We do not toss

[North and West]

Hell yes

Hang it in the louvre.


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[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I know it's unlikely but this is the 4th gfs run in the past 2 days with a similar solution though this one is the best outcome

The euro has had some pretty strong solutions too. Not quite what the GFS shows but close.

[ILoveWinter]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Is it unlikely ? The pattern supports a big storm. 

Def supports it, it’s as good a chance in a few years. Only thing we need is some luck with the timings/phasings…

[Franklin0529]

Id sell my soul for that

[vegan_edible]

happy hour special!

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, Irish said:

Why is unlikely, I've heard from multiple sources that it's a great look. 

6 days out I consider any monster blizzard unlikely. Possible sure

[WestBabylonWeather]

I refuse to get excited this far out 

[SnowGoose69]

I could buy the 18Z GFS track from like 132 hours on in a pattern like this more so in March than now.  I feel it would be hard as heck for that system to be able to climb up the coast vs go straight out to sea

[SI Mailman]

Full moon next weekend too, so coastal flooding impacts as well

[brooklynwx99]

way more consolidated. this is an even lower than normal confidence setup when even the ENS are flopping around like this 

[NEG NAO]

IMO if the 0Z has 2 of the top 3 GFS, Euro and Canadian and at least one of their ensembles mean show a similar 18Z  GFS scenario then start a storm thread but not until those conditions are met......,

[David-LI]

And if the GFS verifies it's another major snowstorm starting Saturday and ending Sunday.

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, David-LI said:

And if the GFS verifies it's another major snowstorm starting Saturday and ending Sunday.

when is the last time it verified a MECS or greater over the last few years for our area ? Its shown them quite a few times over that time period

[nycwinter]

16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

when is the last time it verified a MECS or greater over the last few years for our area ? Its shown them quite a few times over that time period

even a blind squirrel can find a nut once in a while..

[North and West]

I refuse to get excited this far out 

Don’t you come here with your common sense and logical reasoning


.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Just now, North and West said:

Don’t you come here with your common sense and logical reasoning


.

We are supposed to have people over Saturday. I want it to happen I just want it to be Sunday lol (if it happens)

[Utah346]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

Hang it in the louvre.


.

Thats the A Squad at the Strip Club lol

[EWR757]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Is it unlikely ? The pattern supports a big storm. 

Yeah, over 40 West longitude. 

[sussexcountyobs]

After tomorrow's dusting/whiff. And if next Saturday/Sunday doesn't pan out. I expect to start seeing winter is canceled posts.

[psv88]

I will take that GFS run…

[Irish]

28 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

After tomorrow's dusting/whiff. And if next Saturday/Sunday doesn't pan out. I expect to start seeing winter is canceled posts.

So true, however, this is just the beginning. I think we have several chances lining up as we move through January and have read as much. 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The far more active subtropical jet during El Niño events facilitates the development of Miller A storms. During La Niña's the subtropical jet is less impactful and often quiet. It's a non-factor with the current storm. Phased solutions and Miller B transitions are more challenging dynamically.

Normally we would still see snowy la ninas if they came right after an el nino because the subtropical jet would still be there (a la 95-96 and 10-11) but last year's el nino didn't have a normal el nino subtropical jet either.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, jm1220 said:

In 03-04 NYC did better than Boston by an inch or two if not mistaken. That’s really the last winter I can think of where like you said, I-80 was hit pretty good by a few storms. We had the bitter cold Jan clipper with heavy snow in single digits and a nice 8-12” type event in late Jan that both missed Boston. NYC seems to do better than Boston maybe 2-3x per decade. 2015-16 NYC did better, and 2020-21 was tied. 

That's right and the other thing that stands out about 03-04 was the early December blizzard (our earliest blizzard) that lasted two days and where the rain/snow line was like 5 miles south of us on the first day of the storm lol.